If you look at the Adapted Screenplay contenders, you would only find two of these films as likely nominees. The Death of Stalin has shown up enough times to be considered a threat, but the Academy doesn’t like comic book movies that much and definitely don’t consider the screenplays worthy since none have ever been nominated by the Academy and only one graphic novel (American Splendor) has despite critical acclaim for the likes of Road to Perdition and A History of Violence.

The Writers Guild (WGA) has nominated a few, including Splendor, History, Black Panther, Logan, Deadpool, Guardians of the Galaxy, The Dark Knight, Superman. They are much more accepting of such things, but the Academy better mirrors the scripters. Black Panther is the second film based on a graphic novel or comic book to be nominated with History of Violence the former. This is the first based solely on a comic book to get the nomination. That’s a big deal and could mirror to the Oscars based on the USC Libraries’ history in predicting. That said, Leave No Trace is easily the most vulnerable followed by Panther and Stalin.

As to the Oscar contenders hurt by these selections, look no further than BlacKkKlansman, A Star Is Born, Widows, and First Man. The good news for A Star Is Born and Widows is that USC Scripter, unlike the Academy and the WGA, doesn’t care for non-literary adaptations. A Star Is Born is based on three prior film screenplays while Widows is based on a television show. BlacKkKlansman and First Man, however, have no excuses. That said, at least Spike Lee’s film has a WGA nomination. Damien Chazelle’s does not, meaning that A Star Is Born and BlacKkKlansman are on shaky, but not insurmountable footing to still make it into the Oscar race.

The Nominations

Best Adapted Screenplay

Black Panther
Can You Ever Forgive Me?
The Death of Stalin
If Beale Street Could Talk
Leave No Trace

USC Scripter Data

Year Founded: 1988
First Awards: 1987 (32)

With this group, there are three categories to inspect for clues to the Oscar nominees. Of those three, most come from Best Visual Effects in a Photoreal Feature while one or two can come from Best Supporting Visual Effects in a Photoreal Feature. The third category, which became important with Kubo and the Two Strings is Best Visual Effects in an Animated Feature.

There are ten films on the shortlist at the Oscars, Ant-Man and the Wasp, Black Panther, Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom, and Mary Poppins Returns are not in these three categories. That said, Ant-Man and Fallen Kingdom each picked up a nomination from this group, but the others did not. This probably means Mary Poppins is out of the running while Black Panther is now on the ropes. It’s possible to take out Christopher Robin from the main list and replace it with First Man from the second and call that the nominees. I’d even go so far as to say that’s what I would expect. Animation has nothing this year, so they are out of reach and First Man is the only supporting visual effects nominee on the shortlist, making that the likely fifth slot. It’s whether Solo and Marwen, two films that have gotten lackluster or hostile responses (respectively) from critics, can overcome those deficiencies to beat out one of the others.

Nominations Tallies

(6) Avengers: Infinity War
(5) Incredibles 2, Ready Player One
(4) Dr. Seuss’ The Grinch, Ralph Breaks the Internet, Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
(3) Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom, Solo: A Star Wars Story, Welcome to Marwen

The Nominations

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Chalk another one up for Roma. We’re getting close to the end of the critics awards, which means the industry will now start weighing in, including the Producers Guild later this week. At that point, all of these carbon-copy critics prizes will be largely forgotten.

Award Tallies

(3) Roma
(2) The Favourite, A Quiet Place

The Awards

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