Oscar in Box Office History (Week 3, 2018)

Every week, we’ll take a look back in 5-year intervals at the box office past to explore how Oscar’s nominees were doing at the box office each weekend historically. All data is collected from Box Office Mojo. The first section under each year is the positioning of all Oscar nominees during that weekend at the box office (as well as a section looking at the inflation-adjusted numbers). The third section is an alphabetical list of those films and the categories in which they were nominated. And to start each week off, we’ll be looking at the films releasing over the weekend that have the best chance of getting Oscar nominations and specifying the categories where we think they have the best shots at this stage of the game. If you have any suggestions for more data you’d like to see, please let us know.

This Year: Potential Oscar Nominees Releasing This Weekend

None

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The NEW Friday Face-Off #234

We are back to the winners bracket while the losers are percolating. We’re moving into round fou.

Here is this week’s ten (or fewer) face-offs.

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2017 Precursor Predictions: Screen Actors Guild

Looking at the past ten years of the SAG awards and their winners, we see trends toward their alignment with Oscar. They haven’t had fewer than three winners carry over. 4 of the ten years saw 3 matches with Oscar, 4 saw 4 matches with Oscars, and the remaining 2 were perfect matches (2010 and 2014).

While Best Cast is ostensibly for the ensemble performance, that award has matched the Oscar 6 of the ten years, two of which foreshadowed the eventual Best Picture Oscar wins of Birdman and Spotlight.

In Best Actor, nine of the ten winners went on to Oscar wins and that outlier was last yaer when Denzel Washington, who didn’t have a SAG award yet, got one.

Best Actress has seen more fluctuation. Seven of the ten winners have gone on to Oscar. One of those cases was a situation where the SAG winner for Best Supporting Actress (Kate Winslet in The Reader) was bumped up to lead at the Academy and won over Streep (for Doubt) who had won the lead SAG award. Strangely enough, three years later, it would be Streep who knocked out the SAG winner at the Oscars beating her Doubt co-star Viola Davis at the Oscars. The first of those times in the ten years was a foreign actress (Marion Cotillard) winning over a screen legend (Julie Christie) at the Oscars.

In Supporting Actor, the count is eight matching SAG and Oscar. Those two instances were unique. The first involved an actor who were not nominated at SAG winning the Oscar: Christoph Waltz winning his second Oscar over SAG winner Tommy Lee Jones. The second was Mark Rylance, who got the SAG nomination, but lost to Idris Elba who was snubbed by the Academy thanks to the film industry’s dislike of the Netflix distribution model of Beasts of No Nation. So, without extenuating circumstances, Supporting Actor is a fairly strong corollary.

Finally, in Supporting Actress, there were eight matches. The first of those was acting legend Ruby Dee failing to overcome Tilda Swinton, whose win at BAFTA foreshadowed the Oscar win. The other was when Kate Winslet vacated support for lead at the Oscars allowing Penelope Cruz to win the Oscar.

Knowing these facts, it’s easy to show that SAG is a great precursor for all of the acting awards, but a mediocre one for Best Picture. Still, a win can presage an Oscar victory, especially when the PGA and SAG awards diverge, which has happened in each of the last three years with two of those years seeing the Oscar for Best Picture matching the SAG Cast award and the other being where neither PGA nor SAG matched. Could that happen again this year? We might konw by the end of the weekend, especially if both PGA and SAG match.

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2017 Precursor Predictions: Producers Guild

The Producers Guild of America has been a terrific predictor in the last ten years until the last three years.

Prior to 2014, every film that won the PGA award for Best Picture went on to win the Oscar. It should be noted, though, that in 2013, two films tied at PGA (Gravity and 12 Years a Slave), with the latter taking the )scar. That’s a pretty impressive track record.

Best Animated Film is decent at matching with seven of ten matching. In two of those situations, the PGA winner wasn’t nominated at the Oscars (The Adventures of Tintin and The Lego Movie). In the other, it was a case of Pixar beating out Disney, as has often been the case with the Academy.

Best Documentary Feature, on the other hand, is a lousy predictor. Of the ten PGA winners, only five have gone on to win the Oscar. What makes them so abysmal is that four of those five failures were with films that weren’t nominated by the Academy. The other was nominated, but managed to lose out to a film that wasn’t nominated for the PGA. Further, of the five films that didn’t get Oscar nominations, the eventual winners in three of those cases weren’t even nominated at the PGA. It’s the only category the PGA has where the eventual Oscar winner hasn’t at least been a nominee.

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This Day in Oscar History: January 19 (2018)

Here’s what happened today in Oscar History.

Born

Died

Released

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Precursor: 9th Denver Film Critics Awards (2017)

In their 9th year, the Denver film critics have decided to spread out their selections, giving no film more than two awards. Lady Bird picked up another Best Picture citation while several other individuals and films picked up additional awards to add to their hauls.

Award Tallies

(2) Coco, Get Out, Lady Bird

The Awards

Best Film

Lady Bird

Best Animated Film

Coco

Best Director

Christopher Nolan – Dunkirk

Best Actor

Gary Oldman – Darkest Hour

Best Actress

Saoirse Ronan – Lady Bird

Best Supporting Actor

Willem Dafoe – The Florida Project

Best Supporting Actress

Allison Janney – I, Tonya

Best Original Screenplay

Get Out

Best Adapted Screenplay

Call Me by Your Name

Best Score

Dunkirk

Best Original Song

“Remember Me” – Coco

Best Special Effects

War for the Planet of the Apes

Best Foreign Language Film

Thelma

Best Documentary

Faces Places

Best Sci-Fi/Horror Film

Get Out

Best Comedy

The Big Sick

Denver Film Critics Society Data

First Awards: 2009 (9)

Poll: Remaking Best Actor, 2016

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Polls

Remaking Best Actor, 2016

In our second pass of the Oscar nominees from 1997 through 2016, we take a look at the nominees for Best Actor. Each week, we’ll present a list of contenders from which you can select five to make up the Best Actor slate. There will be an “Other” option, but you can only use this once and you’ll have to specify your other in the comments. Now on to the game: Best Actor.

Cinema Sight Asks: Which Hopefuls Should Have Been Nominated for Best Actor (select up to 5)?

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Film Preview: Acrimony (2018)

Page Revisions:

(January 14, 2017) Original

Release Date:

March 30, 2018

Synopsis:

From IMDb: “A faithful wife (Taraji P. Henson) tired of standing by her devious husband (Lyriq Bent) is enraged when it becomes clear she has been betrayed.”

Poster Rating: B- / C

SEE ALL POSTERS BELOW
Review: (#1) Even if Tyler Perry’s movies aren’t great, they certainly hire some of the best poster artists working. The excessive amounts of blank space is worrisome, but the overall design is appropriately symbolic. (#20) This piece of art is less inspired and perhaps a bit more sexist, plus the colors are a part of an overused palette that doesn’t ever improve with repetition.

Trailer Rating: B-

SEE ALL TRAILERS BELOW
Review: A dense psychosexual romantic drama about a wounded wife and the husband whose life is not as he claims has all the earmarks of a scathing Tyler Perry drama with just the right amount of tension to make it seem like it might be engaging.

Oscar Prospects:

None.

Trailer #1

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Oscar Profile #375: Bruce Beresford

Born August 16, 1940 in Sydney, Australia, Bruce Beresford was the son of an electrical goods salesman and his homemaker wife. Interested in film making from an early age, he made several short films beginning in 1959 while still in his teens. Having graduated from the University of Sydney in 1964, he moved to England where he continued to make short films through 1980 when he returned to Australia. His first Australian film was 1972’s The Adventures of Barry McKenzie which he directed after co-writing it with Barry Humphries. It was the first Australian film to make more than a million dollars at the Australian box office. A sequel followed two years later

Beresford directed several more Australian films before breaking out internationally with 1980’s Breaker Morant which would earn ten Australian Film Institute awards out of twelve nominations, as well as an Oscar nomination for Best Adapted Screenplay co-written by Beresford.

The director’s first Hollywood film was 1983’s Tender Mercies which he became attached to after numerous Hollywood directors had turned it down. The film would receive five Oscar nominations including Best Picture and director and win two, for Robert Duvall’s performance and Horton Foote’s Original Screenplay.

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This Day in Oscar History: January 18 (2018)

Here’s what happened today in Oscar History.

Born

Died

Released

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Poll: What Are You Watching? (Jan. 19-21, 2018)

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Polls

What Are You Watching? (Jan. 19-21, 2018)

Cinema Sight Asks: What are you watching? (Jan. 19-21, 2018)

View Results

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Film Preview: Tully (2018)

Page Revisions:

(January 14, 2017) Original

Release Date:

April 20, 2018

Synopsis:

From IMDb: “The film is about Marlo, a mother of three including a newborn, who is gifted a night nanny by her brother. Hesitant to the extravagance at first, Marlo comes to form a unique bond with the thoughtful, surprising and sometimes challenging young nanny named Tully.”

Poster Rating: –


Review: There was no poster immediately available for my review. Should one become available in the future, this section will be updated.

Trailer Rating: B-

SEE ALL TRAILERS BELOW
Review: The slowness of the trailer is one of its greatest problems, but as we get to the meat of the trailer mid-way through, it becomes a lot more interesting. The arrival of the Mary Poppins-like stranger adds something interesting, though perhaps too familiar, to the film’s premise that may not exactly drive engagement.

Oscar Prospects:

None.

Trailer #1

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Looking at the Weekend: Jan. 19-21, 2018

There aren’t a lot of options this weekend, but war films, especially ones that look as manipulative as this one, tend to do well when there are no other options. Den of Thieves is likely to be a flop and Forever My Girl just isn’t the kind of film that becomes a runaway success.

Our Highest Rated Films: This Giant Papier-Mâché Boulder Is Actually Really Heavy
Our Best Awards Ratings: None.

OTHER LIMITED RELEASES

Phantom Thread (Expanding)(Read our previous Looking at the Weekend commentary here.)
Mary and the Witch’s Flower
A Ciambra
The Final Year
Kangaroo
Ridge Runners
The Road Movie

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This Day in Oscar History: January 17 (2018)

Here’s what happened today in Oscar History.

Born

Died

Released

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90th Oscars: Nominations Announcement Information

The Academy has shared some details about next week’s nominations announcement. The non-press-release below specifies the details.

90th Oscars® Nominations Announcement Tuesday, January 23, 2018

5:22 a.m. PST/8:22 a.m. EST/1:22 p.m. GMT/9:22 p.m. CST

The 90th Academy Awards® nominations in all 24 Oscar® categories will be announced in a two-part, live presentation on Tuesday, January 23, via global live stream on Oscar.com, Oscars.org, the Academy’s digital platforms, a satellite feed and local broadcasters. The announcement will combine live presentations from the Academy’s Samuel Goldwyn Theater, with pre-taped category introductions, which will only be featured in the first half of the announcement.

At 5:22 a.m. PST, the nominees will be announced in the following categories (listed here in no particular order): Cinematography, Costume Design, Film Editing, Makeup and Hairstyling, Original Score, Production Design, Animated Short Film, Live Action Short Film, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing and Visual Effects.

At 5:38:30 a.m. PST, the nominees will be announced in the following categories (listed here in no particular order): Actor in a Leading Role, Actor in a Supporting Role, Actress in a Leading Role, Actress in a Supporting Role, Animated Feature Film, Directing, Documentary Feature, Documentary Short Subject, Foreign Language Film, Original Song, Best Picture, Adapted Screenplay and Original Screenplay.

Below is the embedded announcement video for you to watch when it goes live next week.

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