They are always one of the first to announce nominees and the last to give out awards. The Spirit Awards have had more in common with the Oscars in the last decade than the prior, yet their choices don’t match up with too great a frequency. More often than not, the Spirit Awards choose the Oscar nominee among their nominees to give an award with a small handful of exceptions. So, let’s have a look at the nominees and the winners we are predicting after the jump. This will also be the first year I may be able to cover part, if not all of the ceremony broadcast (live from my living room, of course). So, I should be able to update the winners live.

SPIRIT AWARDS

Best Feature

50/50
The Artist (Wesley / Peter / Tripp)
Beginners
The Descendants (RU:Wesley / RU:Tripp)
Drive (RU:Peter)
Take Shelter

Wesley Lovell: This is the first category in which I automatically pick an Oscar nominee. And of the two nominated here, one is even an Oscar frontrunner making it the clear frontrunner for the Spirit Award. Right? Not quite. The Spirit Awards may be Oscar fanboys in some of their selections, but they don’t always pick the eventual winner. I think it’s likely they’ll go for The Artist, but Alexander Payne’s The Descendants wouldn’t surprise me as a winner.

Best First Feature

Another Earth
In the Family
Margin Call (RU:Wesley / RU:Peter / RU:Tripp)
Martha Marcy May Marlene (Wesley / Peter / Tripp)
Natural Selection

Wesley Lovell: There is an Oscar nominee in the bunch, but since this isn’t a direct-to-Oscar category, I’m giving the benefit of the doubt to Martha Marcy May Marlene. Of all of these films, it went in with the most buzz. While Margin Call may have usurped its conversations by getting an Original Screenplay Oscar nomination, I still think Martha has the edge, simply because it happens to be the most indie-like of the two…though, for first feature, I could see Another Earth also winning and possibly even Natural Selection.

Best John Cassavetes Award

Bellflower (RU:Wesley / Peter / Tripp)
Circumstance
The Dynamiter
Hello Lonesome
Pariah (Wesley / RU:Peter / RU:Tripp)

Wesley Lovell: Another category that doesn’t exactly equate to the Oscars, but two of these films have had buzz leading up to their nominations. And since Pariah was a late breaking release, I’d say it has the upper hand. Yet, I can’t escape the suspicion that Bellflower might win it.

Best Director

Michel Hazanavicius – The Artist (Wesley / Peter / Tripp)
Jeff Nichols – Take Shelter
Mike Mills – Beginners
Alexander Payne – The Descendants (RU:Wesley)
Nicolas Winding Refn – Drive (RU:Peter / RU:Tripp)

Wesley Lovell: Two more Oscar nominees in the offing and, like the Best Feature category, I’m going with the Oscar frontrunner, but wouldn’t be surprised by a Payne win. It would be interesting for Refn or Nichols to win, but I’m doubtful.

Best Female Lead

Lauren Ambrose – Think of Me
Rachael Harris – Natural Selection
Adepero Oduye – Pariah
Elizabeth Olsen – Martha Marcy May Marlene (RU:Wesley / RU:Peter / RU:Tripp)
Michelle Williams – My Week with Marilyn (Wesley / Peter / Tripp)

Wesley Lovell: Only one Oscar nominee on the list, which means indie darling Michelle Williams should have no trouble taking the prize. Yet, Elizabeth Olsen’s film has more nominations and Adepero Oduye has a more interesting role, so both could be spoilers.

Best Male Lead

Demian Bichir – A Better Life (RU:Peter)
Jean Dujardin – The Artist (Wesley / Peter / Tripp)
Ryan Gosling – Drive (RU:Wesley)
Woody Harrelson – Rampart
Michael Shannon – Take Shelter (RU:Tripp)

Wesley Lovell: Although there are two Oscar nominees in the bunch, Demian Bichir’s chances are almost non-existent leaving another Oscar frontrunner as the lead contender for this award. I don’t see why Jean Dujardin won’t win, but since the other three non-Oscar nominees were all on the shortlist of potential nominees, any one of them could surprise with my bets hedged towards Ryan Gosling if Dujardin fails.

Best Supporting Female

Jessica Chastain – Take Shelter (RU:Wesley / Peter / RU:Tripp)
Anjelica Huston – 50/50
Janet McTeer – Albert Nobbs (Wesley / Tripp)
Harmony Santana – Gun Hill Road
Shailene Woodley – The Descendants (RU:Peter)

Wesley Lovell: While technically there’s only one Oscar nominated performance on this list, Jessica Chastain’s nomination here for Take Shelter could be seen as a proxy for her ineligible performance in The Help. Still, I lean towards the complex performance of Janet McTeer as the winner simply because of her Oscar nomination. Yet, Shailene Woodley, another Oscar nomination contender that didn’t manifest and the legendary Angelica Huston could also be chosen as winners.

Best Supporting Male

Albert Brooks – Drive (RU:Wesley / RU:Peter / Tripp)
John Hawkes – Martha Marcy May Marlene
Christopher Plummer – Beginners (Wesley / Peter / RU:Tripp)
John C. Reilly – Cedar Rapids
Corey Stoll – Midnight in Paris

Wesley Lovell: The only reason I don’t have Albert Brooks down for the win here is that he’s nominated against Oscar nominee Christopher Plummer. Plummer’s won several late-breaking awards, which puts him in the lead (with the Oscar nomination a deciding factor in my selection). Though, voters could be angry at the Academy membership for ignoring the critics’ darling Brooks and give him the prize anyway.

Best Screenplay

The Artist (RU:Wesley / Peter)
Beginners (RU:Tripp)
The Descendants (Wesley / RU:Peter)
Footnote
Win Win (Tripp)

Wesley Lovell: This category has two Oscar nominees again, both of which are leading or near leading their separate categories at the Oscars. But for once, I’m not giving The Artist the benefit of the doubt. Here’s a film that doesn’t rely as much on dialogue fighting against a film that’s filled with pithy commentary and lots of complexity. If The Artist manages to win, it will be quite the coup.

Best First Screenplay

50/50 (RU:Wesley / RU:Peter / RU:Tripp)
Another Earth
Cedar Rapids
Margin Call (Wesley / Peter / Tripp)
Terri

Wesley Lovell: There may not be a First Screenplay category at the Oscars, but Margin Call is the only film on this list with an Oscar nomination, leading me to believe it’s the key competitor here. However, 50/50 made a more impressive run through the critics’ awards, which gives it a certain edge. However, in the end, I think Margin Call will win out.

Best Cinematography

The Artist (Wesley / Peter / Tripp)
Bellflower
The Dynamiter
Midnight in Paris (RU:Wesley / RU:Peter / RU:Tripp)
The Off Hours

Wesley Lovell: One Oscar nominee in the bunch gets my vote. And how often does this group get to recognize black-and-white features? Not very often. Yet Woody Allen’s film could be a spoiler here and the inventiveness of Bellflower could also triumph. But when faced with a three-fold decision, let Oscar be your guide.

Best International Film

The Kid with a Bike
Melancholia (RU:Peter)
A Separation (Wesley / Peter / Tripp)
Shame (RU:Wesley / RU:Tripp)
Tyrannosaur

Wesley Lovell: It isn’t really Best Foreign Language Film, but it’s close. With a French and Persian-language film competing against three English-language flicks, it’s hard to know exactly what the voters in this category are looking for. If I had to wager, I would say A Separation has the politics behind it to make it a winner. Yet, I can’t help but think that longtime indie filmmakers Lars von Trier and the Brothers Dardenne could be winners in this category. Yet, there’s the newly minted indie flavor Steve McQueen who’s made a successful string of indie favorites competing against actor-turned-director Paddy Considine, also a longtime indie vet. With this kind of roster, I have almost no clue how to make my decision. So, I’m going with the only Oscar nominee on the list with a raft of precursor awards that would sink the Titanic.

Best Documentary

An African Election
Bill Cunningham New York (RU:Wesley / RU:Peter / RU:Tripp)
The Interrupters (Wesley / Tripp)
The Redemption of General Butt Naked
We Were Here (Peter)

Wesley Lovell: No Oscar nominees here, so based on pure reputation, I’m going with The Interrupters, though Bill Cunningham and We Were Here could just as easily win the prize.

Best Piaget Producers Award

Chad Burris – Mosquita y Mari
Sophia Lin – Take Shelter (RU:Wesley / Peter / Tripp)
Josh Mond – Martha Marcy May Marlene (Wesley / RU:Peter / RU:Tripp)

Wesley Lovell: None of these names are familiar to me, but their films are. Since Marth Marcy May Marlene has potential to win a trophy or two more than Take Shelter, that’s how I’m leaning. But neither result would surprise me.

Best Acura Someone to Watch Award

Simon Arthur – Silver Tongues (Wesley / Peter)
Mark Jackson – Without (RU:Wesley / RU:Peter)
Nicholas Ozeki – Mamitas

Wesley Lovell: Another three individuals I’m not familiar with, so I just picked which film had the best titles.

Best Truer Than Fiction Award

Heather Courtney – Where Soldiers Come From (RU:Wesley / Peter / RU:Tripp)
Danfung Dennis – Hell and Back Again (Wesley / RU:Peter / Tripp)
Alma Har’el – Bombay Beach

Wesley Lovell: Danfung Dennis has an Oscar nomination for Best Documentary Feature, so he gets my prediction. Though either other film might win since I don’t know what the Spirit Award voters really like here.