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This was the first time I inadvertently worked up two different preview articles. After I noticed the duplication, I blended the two together into one. What’s most interesting is just how often I managed to choose the exact same box office gross for both versions. Below are my comments from the “Updated” lists as well as the revised box office prediction and a mention of what I had originally predicted. I’ll try to discuss whether I was wrong or right in my shifted expectations.

Note also that The Wolf of Wall Street was originally scheduled for November when I wrote the first article, but by the time I wrote the second, it had been shifted to December. As such, I will be recapping that film’s performance in my December article. Since the box office totals are the same, I won’t worry about carrying forward my commentary.

November 1-3, 2013

Ender’s Game

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Uncertain. Early reviews haven’t been great and while that doesn’t always mean Oscar failure, the films that have surmounted negative reviews to gain Oscar nominations have typically been films that were box office hits. With strong competition on release weekend from Last Vegas, Ender’s Game could have a tough time finding a toe-hole in its climb up the box office mountain and if that’s the case, no manner of great visual effects will give it an edge up over better received and better rewarded sci-fi films already in release this year.”
Oscar Results: When you base your film on an acclaimed book, you had better hope critics are on your side. Without them, this kind of thing happens and thanks to the added box office disappointment, the film was an Oscar afterthought.
Box Office Prediction: $80 M (revised from $80 M)
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. Even if reviews are mediocre, the likelihood of this late-year sci-fi picture being successful is high. While it won’t meet Gravity-size expectations, it should still do decent business. Of course, comparisons to Gravity might diminish the film’s potential as it adheres to a Star Wars-esque sensibility towards the genre and not a 2001: A Space Odyssey approach.”
Box Office Results: $61.7 M
Thoughts: [Minor Flop] Critics didn’t give it legs and fans of the film didn’t turn out enough or as frequently to turn this into a box office success. You have to be as good as your source to do well in this business.

Free Birds

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Uncertain. There’s a lot of competition each year for Best Animated Feature, but this year it’s a bit different. This year, there are no major frontrunners already established in the race and many films that might have been considered shoe-ins for nominations have tanked at the box office and with critics leaving a few holes that could easily be filled by equally-lackluster but more successful projects. This could be one of those if it can hang on through the Thanksgiving holiday as it has a strong hold on family audiences for that time.”
Oscar Results: Box office didn’t help, but critics lashed the film, which did more to sink the film’s Oscar prospects than a failed box office run could.
Box Office Prediction: $120 M (revised from $100 M)
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. With no major animated films on the horizon, Free Birds will have plenty of time to strut through the Thanksgiving holiday to a solid opening and extended performance. Judging by the look of it, however, not many will want a second helping.”
Box Office Results: $55.8 M
Thoughts: [Flop] Audiences were holding out for Frozen. Given the premise, it seemed like a good bet for box office gold, but audiences just weren’t up for it.

Last Vegas

Box Office Prediction: $150 M (revised from $100 M)
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. Comedy has been doing great business this year, especially from older audiences. What could be better paired with such audiences than a comedy about older actors living it up in Vegas. It’s already being called The Hangover for the elderly, but I suspect it has broad-demographic appeal and will trade that in for excellent business.”
Box Office Results: $63.9 M
Thoughts: [Flop] With a mid-range comedy and no major stars, this is the kind of total I would expect to see. However, with four huge names on tap, there’s no reason this shouldn’t have been a blockbuster. Sometimes I need to low-ball anything that seems even slightly unoriginal.

About Time

Box Office Prediction: $50 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Decent. Starting in limited release, the filmmaker who brought the well-liked Love Actually to the screen takes a new twist on the formula and sets us on a time-bending journey that picks up elements from Groundhog Day, with less comedic strength. The film will take time to get going, but should eke out a decent living at the box office with no real rom-com-petition hanging around.”
Box Office Results: $15.3 M
Thoughts: [Flop] The film stumbled in limited release, failed to garner strong attention from critics and didn’t do very good business in wide release.

Dallas Buyers Club

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Good. A film that would have been at home in the early 1980’s when AIDS dramas were finding wide appreciation and distribution, this historical look at a pro-sports star who takes on the pharmaceutical establishment and works to ensure fellow HIV-positive sufferers have protection from greedy practices. The film has earned quite a lot of attention, especially for Matthew McConaughey and Jared Leto’s performances in the film, but that high profile nature could benefit the film with chances in other categories, including Best Picture and screenwriting.”
Oscar Results: Not only did the film secure nominations in all four categories I mentioned, it also earned nods in Editing and Makeup, where no one would have expected it.
Box Office Prediction: $35 M (revised from $15 M)
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. It’s an Oscar contender and Matthew McConaughey is a well liked figure; however, he hasn’t been able to sell a box office behemoth in some time and the challenging subject matter is sure to struggle to find more than a niche audience. Still, if the Academy decides to fete the film, it could have a long stay at the specialty box office and finish well above what I’ve predicted.”
Box Office Results: $27.2 M (STILL IN LIMITED RELEASE)
Thoughts: [Minor Success] I’m glad I revised my numbers, but I’m also surprised the film didn’t do bigger box office. Sure, Tom Hanks has always been a bigger star than Matthew McConaughey, but Philadelphia pulled in three times these numbers 20 years ago. It would have made six times more if you adjusted for inflation. You could consider this a success considering the subject matter, but if something even more progressive could do significantly better business two decades prior, there’s no reason this one shouldn’t have been much bigger.

Diana

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Weak. Once upon a time, this was considered the vehicle that would finally win Naomi Watts an Oscar after two Oscar nominations and countless near-misses. Yet, as with many other biopics in recent years, the subject matter was pieced together poorly for the screen and critics have been largely dismissive, sinking her chances at an Oscar, but also damaging her chances at a nomination. Although she’s pulled out some surprise nominations on less high-profile efforts, the hefty competition for the Best Actress category will make it a challenge for her to get nominated, but if she can make it for this, she can make it for just about anything…until she wins that is.”
Oscar Results: There was no chance for Naomi Watts. The actress line-up was way too strong and no one even gave the film a second thought after its release (including audiences).
Box Office Prediction: $20 M (revised from $1.5 M)
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. Like the many other poorly-written biopics in the last few years, it’s unlikely this film would make anything resembling a boatload of cash. Previous biopics have had the benefit of Oscar campaigns to bolster their attendance, but even then they find it fairly difficult to collect enough cash to make it seem worth it. The Academy might help, but is equally as likely to forget the film, which puts this mid-October release in a bind.”
Box Office Results: $335 K
Thoughts: [Major Flop] Another example of why revising your predictions isn’t necessarily a good thing and especially when reviews are already poor. Not only did the film not live up to my new prediction, my initial projection was also far too high. This was a box office disaster.

November 8-10, 2013

Thor: The Dark World

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Weak. The first film, in spite of its bountiful visual effects, was an Oscar no-show and this year, that’s a distinct possibility again, except that this one is releasing late enough in the year that memories won’t be as forgetful about its existence. Outside of the sound and visual effects categories, I wouldn’t expect too much and even there the film is a bit of an underdog.”
Oscar Results: Nothing going. Unless you feature the Iron Man character, Oscar nominations are not in the cards.
Box Office Prediction: $205 M (revised from $205 M)
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Excellent. There’s little question this sequel to Thor and secondary follow-up to the box office bonanza The Avengers will make heaps of cash. The question here is how much. While this wasn’t the top performer of the four Avengers stand-alone films, the character (and its actor Chris Hemsworth) have built a lot of energy since then and I suspect that it would easily surpass its predecessor, but not by enough to topple the Iron Man films.”
Box Office Results: $206.3 M
Thoughts: [Success] I’m always astounded when my predictions are spot-on, but this was scarily close. What’s more amazing is that both my initial and my revised predictions were identical. That said, this was a foregone conclusion even if critics weren’t as supportive as they were on the prior outing.

The Armstrong Lie

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Decent. Documentarian Alex Gibney has an uneven history with the Academy. Twice, he’s been nominated for Best Documentary Feature, winning once in a surprise win for Taxi to the Dark Side. This year, he has another shot at a nomination with this film that was originally intended to be a documentary about Lance Armstrong’s struggles to overcome cancer and become a world champion cyclist. He began working on this prior to the revelation that Armstrong had cheated and transformed it into an exposรฉ of the “Livestrong” athelete using actual interview footage from Armstrong to tell the story. That unique twist of purpose coudl be enough to land it on the nomination block, especially in the deft hands of Gibney.”
Oscar Results: It may be fodder for a biopic, but the Academy didn’t bite. Gibney is well respected, but can’t seem to earn nominations with regularity.
Box Office Prediction: $20 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. The film’s success will be directly tied to how much energy Armstrong’s former fans and current detractors about reliving the lies that are so fresh in their memory. It’s quite possible the film will struggle at the box office but might be buoyed by Oscar consideration.”
Box Office Results: $383.3 K
Thoughts: [Flop] Curiosity didn’t take hold of the audience and as they have shunned everything Armstrong since his doping revelations, it seems even documentaries discussing the exposure cannot benefit from added familiarity.

The Book Thief

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Uncertain. On paper, this would sound like the perfect Oscar contender, a small, family drama taking place during the Holocaust. The Academy has always shown a willingness to forgive even the slightest weaknesses when considering these films. The problem is that the film has gotten very little attention this year and lacking visibility could very well hurt the film’s chances, which could have competed in any number of categories this year based on premise alone.”
Oscar Results: Leave it to John Williams to represent the film’s only Oscar nomination, a nod that had less to do with the film and more to do with the rote checking off of Williams’ name.
Box Office Prediction: $6 M (revised from $3 M)
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. The difficult subject matter, the specialty release and the bountiful bunch of Oscar contenders already in release (and yet to open) should guarantee that the film performs very poorly at the box office, though strong word of mouth after strong reviews could bolster its chances.”
Box Office Results: $21.5 M (STILL IN LIMITED RELEASE)
Thoughts: [Minor Success] It made it out of limited release to carve out a decent, though not exceptional piece of the box office pie.

The Starving Games

Box Office Prediction: $40 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. Spoofs can still make piles of dough, but a lot depends on the accessibility of the material. Aaron Seltzer and Jason Friedberg haven’t made a lot of money at the box office with their films, but with the film’s parodied successor coming in two weeks, added interest might help the film mak a bit more than they are accustomed to. Regardless, for as little as these films cost to make, any tally still banks them plenty of cash.”
Box Office Results: $N/A M (NEVER RELEASED)
Thoughts: [Major Flop] The film was slated for release and even garnered a few notices from critics, but the film was lashed with roundly negative reviews, which may finally marke the end of the Fridberg/Seltzer reign.

November 15-17, 2013

The Best Man Holiday

Box Office Prediction: $40 M (revised from $40 M)
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. Will this be the latest narrow demographic-targeted film to bomb at the box office. Tyler Perry remains the only figure that can adequately sell this type of film, though people keep trying. It’s possible the dearth of such films may give this film legs; however, with others on the immediate horizon, it won’t have very long legs.”
Box Office Results: $70.5 M
Thoughts: [Success] You never know when to expect a black audience-targeted film to take off at the box office. Tyler Perry has an uneven history, but a sequel to a very popular film is strong enough to win at the box office.

Nebraska

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Uncertain. Never underestimate Alexander Payne who has a stellar history with the Academy and this film should be considered a solid contender. However, the buzz died down after the festival and until it’s seen by wide audiences, it’s uncertain if the film can follow his previous films Sideways and The Descendants.”
Oscar Results: Not only did Alexander Payne follows his prior films, he did so very strongly, earning nominations in six categories, including Best Picture, two acting nominations, Best Director and Best Original Screenplay. It did not win anything, but this proves that if Payne’s behind it, slot it for nominations.
Box Office Prediction: $60M (revised from $60 M)
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. It might be a tough sell, but if there’s a director today that could make money off a black-and-white dramedy, it’s Alexander Payne. His last several films, in spite of somewhat depressing subjects and quirky premises, have been successes at the box office. This story may stretch his ability to sell his films, but it should still make suitable funds, especially if it makes it through to the Oscars.”
Box Office Results: $17.7 M
Thoughts: [Flop] The one thing not guaranteed for an Alexander Payne film is a box office dominance. The film had the chance to appeal to a broad cross-section of the public, but the black-and-white nature of the film likely kept it from catching fire with audiences, which makes this one a slight disappiontment.

November 22-24, 2013

Delivery Man

Box Office Prediction: $25 M (revised from $65 M)
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. Vince Vaughn isn’t the biggest name at the box office, but he has enough credit to continue making movies. This one is a remake of an English-language indie, which won’t endear it to critics, but audiences might be drawn to the crazy nature of the premise giving it a good, thought doubtfully great outcome.”
Box Office Results: $30.7 M
Thoughts: [Flop] Vince Vaughn isn’t a box office draw. He never has been. They keep slotting him into the lead role of comedies, though. He’s like the Jason Statham of comedy.

The Hunger Games: Catching Fire

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Weak. As with the original film, the technical achievements are astounding, but the Academy relegates this film to the same space it sets aside for other tween films. The sequel could still compete in some categories for nominations, but I doubt it will make it through with a nomination outside of Best Original Song, which still seems very iffy.”
Oscar Results: No nominations, not even Best Original Song. Of course, with the controversy that category generated this year, it might have been better had they nominated it.
Box Office Prediction: $400 M (revised from $450 M)
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Excellent. Sequels, especially to tween-targeted films, don’t have a lot of history of success. Even the Twilight sequels hvae struggled to get to or much beyond their predecessors. Although The Hunger Games was targeted at tween audiences, the books, and thereby the film, managed to surpass what’s possible for a film that targets such a narrow demographic. The wide ranging support among other types of audience members will ultimately help the film get close to its predecessor and maybe surpass it, but I doubt that at this juncture.”
Box Office Results: $424.5 M
Thoughts: [Major Success] I revised my initial prediction down, but too far. The film eclipsed my prediction and surprised some observers who never thuoght the sequel could outperform the original.

Philomena

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Decent. As usual, Judi Dench has entered the conversation with a new role as a mother desperately seeking for the son taken from her shortly after he was born. It’s a tough race this year, but Dench is said to deliver a powerhouse performance filled with exacting range. She might even pull the film in for more nominations, including a first for Steve Coogan, likely in Best Supporting Actor.”
Oscar Results: Steve Coogan got his first Oscar nomination, but not in acting. He and Jeff Pope were nominated for Adapted Screenplay and the film was pulled along for several nominations thanks to Harvey Weinstein’s tireless campaigning. It went home empty-handed, however.
Box Office Prediction: $40 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Decent. The film is sure to be an Oscar contender, but will it be a contender outside of the specialty box office. Harvey Weinstein has a history of making smaller films hits and the universality of the subject matter might make it quite a popular film. Reviews will be positive, but whether the film can become a break-out hit in a sea of adult-targeted films over the winter remains to be seen.”
Box Office Results: $37.5 M (STILL IN LIMITED RELEASE)
Thoughts: [Minor Success] The film ended about where I expected. Without any Oscar wins, the film wasn’t bolstered at the box office. Even with the handful of nods it received, Harvey didn’t get the word out nearly as well as he normally does. Critics were strongly positive on the film, so it should have transitioned into a bigger hit than this.

November 27-December 2, 2013

Black Nativity

Box Office Prediction: $35 M (revised from $45 M)
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. On the heels of Best Man Holiday, strong word of mouth will be required for this film to become much of a success (not that Holiday will either). Regardless, it’s a shrewd move positioning this film on Thanksgiving, which might give it a chance to access audiences that don’t typically make it out to the theater for lack of interesting options.”
Box Office Results: $7.0 M
Thoughts: [Major Flop] It seems like no one wanted to see a musical over Thanksgiving, at least not this one. Black audiences weren’t as engaged as I thought they might be and the trailers didn’t a terrible job promoting the film and especially it’s musical gravitas. Chalk this failure up to marketing problems.

Frozen

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Strong. There are three studios you should always expect to see in the Oscar race for Best [Animated Feature]: DreamWorks, Disney/Pixar and regular Disney. This falls into that third category and with the level of mediocre hits in the medium this year, it stands a very good shot of becoming Disney’s first stand-alone Best Animated Feature winner in history. Pixar’s won several times (including last year over the significantly better Wreck-It Ralph) as has DreamWorks; however, Disney, whose craftsmanship in the late 1980’s and early 1990’s led to the modern animation revival that resulted in this category to begin with, has never won.”
Oscar Results: The Wind Rises may have been better, but Disney did a bang-up job pushing the film into the Oscar race and made a successful play to pick up their first Best Animated Feature trophy. Had they held The Wind Rises until next year (when it released outside of the qualifying run), it might have been next year’s big winner, especially with a little help from the parent company.
Box Office Prediction: $200 M (revised from $180 M)
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Excellent. First, it’s Disney. Second, it’s animated. Third, there isn’t much else around since Free Birds will have been in release for four weeks by this point. Four, an animated film from a major powerhouse animation studio releasing over Thanksgiving should be a slam dunk.”
Box Office Results: $398.9 M (STILL IN LIMITED RELEASE)
Thoughts: [Major Success] It was not only a “slam dunk,” but it was a huge hit. A bigger hit than anyone expected. The film resonated on a level few animated films have in recent years. Critics loved it too. The film should finish its run just north of $400 million if the recent home video release doesn’t entirely cannibalize its big screen take.

Homefront

Box Office Prediction: $20 M (revised from $20 M)
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. When was the last time Jason Statham had a hit? The Expendables. When was the last time he had a solo hit? Never, really. This is one of the biggest go-to action actors working today, yet none of his films have made much money at all. This should continue for a film that will easily get lost over Thanksgiving.”
Box Office Results: $20.2 M
Thoughts: [Minor Flop] The film performed about as expected for a Statham vehicle. I assume that he works for cheap and his films aren’t expensive to produce. Otherwise, how can anyone justifying employing the guy?

Oldboy

Box Office Prediction: $40 M (revised from $35 M)
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. Spike Lee hasn’t had a hit in awhile and it’s likely this film, which goes against his typical filming style will bolster those chances. Still, curiosity seekers could give the film a chance and fans of the original might be interested just to see how close or different this American remake is from it.”
Box Office Results: $2.2 M
Thoughts: [Major Flop] Spike Lee is no Martin Scorsese and adaptation a celebrated Asian action film isn’t an easy task. As such, Lee’s film was released to a resounding silence and ended up far below the margin it should have had considering the marketing the studio put into it, even if minimal.

Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Uncertain. Cinema has found a new gold mine in examining the black experience. This year alone, three films (Fruitvale Station, Lee Daniels’ The Butler and 12 Years a Slave) have tackled different aspects of history’s stance on slavery, Civil Rights and prejudice. Add this fourth film and voter fatigue may settle in. Idris Elba and possibly Naomie Harris have a chance of getting nominated for the film, but I have my doubts about whether the film can strike out beyond this with both 12 Years and The Butler dominating conversations this year. Even Fruitvale is starting to get lost in the shuffle.”
Oscar Results: The film wasn’t very good apparently, which may explain why it didn’t ignite at the box office. With those factors, the Academy didn’t really see this as much of their type of film. However, U2 picked up a nomination for Best Original Song in spite of that.
Box Office Prediction: $2 M (revised from $3 M)
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. A satisfactory showing at the specialty box office is a given. Whether the film can break out beyond that remains to be seen. With Lee Daniels’ The Butler and 12 Years a Slave already draining the coffers of those interested in films exploring the struggles of race relations over the last two hundred years, it’s likely this one will get lost in the shuffle, even with strong reviews and a possible Oscar nomination or two.”
Box Office Results: $8.3 M
Thoughts: [Minor Flop] I used the phrase “lost in the shuffle” twice and it was appropriate in both cases. Although the film outperformed my meager expectations, the brief release window and poor marketing efforts have put a permanent chink in the formerly formidable Harvey Weinstein’s armor.

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