2013 Precursor Predictions: Spirit Awards

There was a time when the Spirit Awards and the Oscars rarely ever synced. In those days, you might get one or two Oscar nominees on the spirit slate in most categories, but even that was a rarity. In the last few years, the Spirit Awards have had a much larger quantity of Oscar nominees (or perhaps the Oscars have a few more Spirit nominees). Either way, we can no longer use the general rule test of “it’s an Oscar nominee, so it will win.” Still, other than a few surprising selections in the last couple of years, they by-and-large stick with the Oscar contenders. Here are our predictions for this Sunday’s Spirit Awards. I must also add a caveat. With full disclosure, I joined Film Independent last year and this was my first eligible year to vote, so my voice will be counted among these, though I did not necessarily vote in line with my predictions.

SPIRIT AWARDS

Best Feature

12 Years a Slave (Wesley, Peter, Tripp)
All Is Lost
Frances Ha
Inside Llewyn Davis (RU:Peter)
Nebraska (RU:Wesley, RU:Tripp)

Wesley Lovell: One of the two Oscar frontrunners is on the list. Along with one film that isn’t really competing at the Oscars and another almost-Best Picture nominee. I throw my prediction behind 12 Years without hesitation. It was my vote.
Peter J. Patrick: Not necessarily a true Oscar predictor, but the Spirits should go for one of these two winners of previous year-end awards.
Tripp Burton: The Spirit Awards have never given this award to a non-Oscar Best Picture nominee if one was nominated, which means this is between 12 Years a Slave and Nebraska. Figuring 12 Years a Slave is a strong contender for the Oscar, and it doesn’t have Gravity or American Hustle to contend with, it should win here hands down.

Best First Feature

Blue Caprice (RU:Peter)
Concussion
Fruitvale Station (Wesley, Peter, Tripp)
Una Noche
Wadjda (RU:Wesley, RU:Tripp)

Wesley Lovell: One of the few frequent presences on the precursor trail was Fruitvale Station as Best First Feature, so I don’t doubt it will win. Wadjda could also be a threat.
Peter J. Patrick: The highly acclaimed Fruitvale Station should take this one.
Tripp Burton: Fruitvale Station is the highest profile film on this list, and has a lot of very passionate supporters. If the voters are looking to honor a truly momentous achievement, though, they may give it to Wadjda, the first film ever filmed in Saudi Arabia, and by a woman no doubt.

John Cassavetes Award

Computer Chess (Wesley, Peter, Tripp)
Crystal Fairy
Museum Hours (RU:Wesley, RU:Peter, RU:Tripp)
Pit Stop
This Is Martin Bonner

Wesley Lovell: I’m at a loss here. These titles aren’t exactly major titles, but I’ve heard about most of them. That’s why I give the edge to Computer Chess. However, I could see any of them winning.
Peter J. Patrick: No idea, really, this one’s just a guess.
Tripp Burton: Computer Chess is so unique and praised that I think its achievement is right up the voters’ alley (it also picked up a nomination for Cinematography).

Best Director

Shane Carruth – Upstream Color
J.C. Chandor – All Is Lost
Steve McQueen – 12 Years a Slave (Wesley, Peter, Tripp)
Jeff Nichols – Mud (RU:Peter)
Alexander Payne – Nebraska (RU:Wesley, RU:Tripp)

Wesley Lovell: Although he isn’t likely to win the Oscar, Steve McQueen shouldn’t have trouble winning here.
Peter J. Patrick: Will likely be either an Oscar front-runner or a true independent spirit like Jeff Nichols.
Tripp Burton: This is McQueen’s best chance for an award, and he should win it pretty handily.

Best Female Lead

Cate Blanchett – Blue Jasmine (Wesley, Peter, Tripp)
Julie Delpy – Before Midnight (RU:Tripp)
Gaby Hoffmann – Crystal Fairy
Brie Larson – Short Term 12 (RU:Wesley, RU:Peter)
Shailene Woodley – The Spectacular Now

Wesley Lovell: She’s the Oscar frontrunner, so I doubt Cate Blanchett can lose. I gave my personal vote to Brie Larson and I would love for an upset.
Peter J. Patrick: Likely Oscar front-runner Blanchett, but they could throw a bone to rising star Larson.
Tripp Burton: At this point, I am not going to vote against Cate Blanchett. Julie Delpy certainly has her band of support, though, and could muster enough voters to make it a fair fight.

Best Male Lead

Bruce Dern – Nebraska (RU:Tripp)
Chiwetel Ejiofor – 12 Years a Slave (RU:Wesley, RU:Peter)
Oscar Isaac – Inside Llewyn Davis
Michael B. Jordan – Fruitvale Station
Matthew McConaughey – Dallas Buyers Club (Wesley, Peter, Tripp)
Robert Redford – All Is Lost

Wesley Lovell: Chiwetel Ejiofor got my vote, but I suspect Oscar frontrunner Matthew McConaughey will carry over here as well.
Peter J. Patrick: Likely a race between Oscar heavyweights.
Tripp Burton: We have three Oscar nominees in this category, and three other men who put up campaigns for the Oscars, but McConaughey has been on such a run that he will probably end up on this stage too. Unless voters want to throw some love to one of the also-rans, probably the legendary Bruce Dern.

Best Supporting Female

Melonie Diaz – Fruitvale Station
Sally Hawkins – Blue Jasmine
Lupita Nyong’o – 12 Years a Slave (Wesley, Peter, Tripp)
Yolonda Ross – Go for Sisters
June Squibb – Nebraska (RU:Wesley, RU:Peter, RU:Tripp)

Wesley Lovell: Another Oscar frontrunner, another likely winner. She was my vote.
Peter J. Patrick: Another preview of Oscar night? Could be.
Tripp Burton: Without having Jennifer Lawrence as her competition, Nyong’o should take this prize pretty handily from her formidable competition.

Best Supporting Male

Michael Fassbender – 12 Years a Slave (RU:Wesley, RU:Peter)
Will Forte – Nebraska (RU:Tripp)
James Gandolfini – Enough Said
Jared Leto – Dallas Buyers Club (Wesley, Peter, Tripp)
Keith Stanfield – Short Term 12

Wesley Lovell: I almost gave my vote to Will Forte for his assured performance in Nebraska, but ultimately I gave my vote to Michael Fassbender. Neither of those are going to win as Jared Leto has a clear lead. This could be the first year I can remember where all of the Spirit Award winners in the acting categories carried over to Oscar.
Peter J. Patrick: Once again the Oscar contenders keep it up.
Tripp Burton: The Oscar frontrunner is in this batch, which means he will most certainly win here too.

Best Screenplay

12 Years a Slave (Wesley, Peter, RU:Tripp)
Before Midnight (Tripp, RU:Wesley, RU:Peter)
Blue Jasmine
Enough Said
The Spectacular Now

Wesley Lovell: I can’t help but suspect this will be a very tight race with Before Midnight a very strong threat to Oscar frontrunner 12 Years a Slave. In the end, I think 12 Years may get across-the-board support from this group.
Peter J. Patrick: Yet another preview of Oscar night.
Tripp Burton: 12 Years a Slave might be headed for a sweep of the Spirit Awards, but I can see them wanting to honor the achievement of the Before trilogy with one prize.

Best First Screenplay

Afternoon Delight
The Inevitable Defeat of Mister and Pete
In a World… (RU:Wesley)
Don Jon (RU:Peter, RU:Tripp)
Nebraska (Wesley, Peter, Tripp)

Wesley Lovell: Nebraska is the only Best Film nominee on this list giving it the edge. In a World… is my prediction for runner-up, but I could see Don Jon also winning.
Peter J. Patrick: Nebraska‘s best shot of the night.
Tripp Burton: Nebraska has that Best Film nomination, which should help it pick up a consolation prize here for its Oscar-nominated screenplay. Movie star Joseph Gordon-Levitt could be an alternative, though, if voters want to see him get some recognition.

Best Editing

Frances Ha (RU:Peter)
Museum Hours
Short Term 12 (Wesley, Peter)
Una Noche (RU:Wesley)
Upstream Color

Wesley Lovell: None of these films really seem to stand out in terms of editing prowess, largely because they are all character dramas. Una Noche is probably the more “intense” of the bunch, but Short Term 12 is my prediction (and was my vote).
Peter J. Patrick: Could be either.

Best Cinematography

12 Years a Slave (Peter, RU:Wesley, RU:Tripp)
All Is Lost
Computer Chess
Inside Llewyn Davis (Wesley, RU:Peter)
Spring Breakers (Tripp)

Wesley Lovell: This will be one of the few categories where I think 12 Years a Slave will lose out and that’s because it’s up against the gorgeous lighting and composition work in Inside Llewyn Davis.
Peter J. Patrick: Another category where the runner-up is just as likely to win.
Tripp Burton: There are a couple of Oscar nominees here, with 12 Years a Slave and Inside Llewyn Davis theoretically fighting for this prize. The Spirit Awards were ballsy enough to nominate Spring Breakers here, though, and I think they just might be ballsy enough to honor its bold colors.

Best International Film

Blue Is the Warmest Color – France (Wesley, Tripp, RU:Peter)
Gloria – Chile
The Great Beauty – Italy (Peter, RU:Wesley, RU:Tripp)
The Hunt – Denmark
A Touch of Sin – China

Wesley Lovell: It’s dominated the awards season even though it wasn’t eligible for the Foreign Language Film Oscar. Blue Is the Warmest Color should continue that streak, but watch out for all of the others, especially Oscar nominees The Great Beauty and The Hunt.
Peter J. Patrick: The Great Beauty is on a roll.
Tripp Burton: The two Oscar frontrunners are here (The Great Beauty and The Hunt), but I have a feeling that Palme d’Or winner Blue is the Warmest Color will appeal to these voters the most.

Best Documentary

20 Feet from Stardom (RU:Wesley, RU:Peter)
The Act of Killing (Wesley, Peter, Tripp)
After Tiller
Gideon’s Army
The Square (RU:Tripp)

Wesley Lovell: With this group, I never know what to expect. Three of these films are nominated for Oscars. While I think the Oscar voters might side with 20 Feet from Stardom, I also cannot discount The Act of Killing‘s artistic merits and The Square‘s topicality.
Peter J. Patrick: And yet another hint of what Oscar will do.
Tripp Burton: The Spirit Awards tend to be more open to experimentation and difficult subject matter than the Oscars, which means that The Act of Killing has a very good chance of winning here over some more traditional competition. The independent nature of The Square, though, will also appeal to a lot of these voters.

Piaget Producers Award

Toby Halbrooks & James M. Johnston (Wesley)
Jacob Jaffke
Andrea Roa (RU:Wesley)
Frederick Thornton

Wesley Lovell: This is called guessing.

Someone to Watch Award

The Foxy Merkins – Director: Madeline Olnek
My Sister’s Quinceañera – Director: Aaron Douglas Johnston (RU:Wesley)
Newlyweeds – Director: Shaka King (Wesley)

Wesley Lovell: As is this (though Newlyweeds is a title I have at least a passing familiarity of.