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This weekend, two of the biggest guild precursors bring us our last real chances at upset victories. Looking over our predictions, there seems to be a lot of variance in many places, suggesting that no one is precisely certain how these sometimes-persnickety groups will vote. We still try to take a stab at it.

The Producers Guild of America will kick things off Saturday evening at a private awards dinner. The Screen Actors Guild will finish out the weekend Sunday night with their televised event celebrating the best of film and television this year. For SAG, I’ll be posting the winners live. For the PGA, I will be posting the winners Sunday morning as I won’t have easy access to the internet Saturday evening (though, if I can get it posted sooner, I will).

SCREEN ACTORS GUILD AWARDS

Best Cast

Birdman (RU:Wesley, RU:Thomas)
Boyhood (Peter, RU:Tripp)
The Grand Budapest Hotel (Wesley, Tripp, Thomas, RU:Peter)
The Imitation Game
The Theory of Everything

Wesley Lovell: The tradition (one that has been broken in the recent past, but is frequently more precise than not) is that the Screen Actors Guild goes for the largest ensemble. They rank as follows: The Grand Budapest Hotel (17), The Imitation Game (8), Birdman (7), The Theory of Everything (6), and finally Boyhood (4). Clearly, Budapest has the largest ensemble (as large a cast as the bottom three combined). That gives it an easy edge, one that I wouldn’t be surprised see come to fruition. If Boyhood, with its tiny ensemble, manages to win this award, it will be a big coup for the film, which will lock itself in as a Best Picture frontrunner the likes of which we haven’t seen since The King’s Speech. That said, it’s more likely that Imitation Game or Birdman pick up the award. They have sizable casts filled with people from film and television who SAG voters genuinely love (not that Ethan Hawke and Patricia Arquette aren’t well liked, but they can’t hold a candle to the likes of Michael Keaton, Benedict Cumberbatch and Edward Norton).
Peter J. Patrick: Boyhood is a phenomenon that actors aren’t likely to ignore in this category. The cast-heavy Grand Budapest Hotel is a strong contender should there be an upset.
Tripp Burton: The SAG Ensemble Award the last couple of years has gone to big casts, not necessarily the front-runner for Best Picture. That means that Boyhood has a little bit of an uphill battle here, especially since its nominated ensemble is only 4 actors. Birdman or The Grand Budapest Hotel should benefit nicely from that, and I am leaning towards the expansive, international ensemble of the Wes Anderson film to win here. It “upset” Birdman at The Golden Globes, so why not do it again?
Thomas LaTourette: The largest cast often, but not always, prevails here, which should give a boost to The Grand Budapest Hotel. It really is a whoโ€™s who of a cast, from the serious (Ralph Fiennes, F. Murray Abraham) to the silly (Bill Murray, Owen Wilson), and that depth of casting should carry it on to a win. If anything were to win over it, I think it would be Edward Nortonโ€™s other film, Birdman.

Best Actor

Steve Carell – Foxcatcher
Benedict Cumberbatch – The Imitation Game (RU:Peter)
Jake Gyllenhaal – Nightcrawler
Michael Keaton – Birdman (Wesley, Peter, Thomas, RU:Tripp)
Eddie Redmayne – The Theory of Everything (Tripp, RU:Wesley, RU:Thomas)

Wesley Lovell: There are pros and cons for each of these nominees winnin, but after you dump Gyllenhaal from the competition, you have four equally persuasive potential picks. Steve Carell plays to the groups heavy TV presence, which only Cumberbatch truly shares. The problem is that his film didn’t score well with the nominating committee and in spite of Oscar attention for Best Director, this just doesn’t seem like the place they’ll honor him. Cumberbatch has a lot of TV followers, but he’s going to be a tough competitor on the TV side this year, so they may pass him up in favor of someone else. Michael Keaton doesn’t have the following of television voters, but he has a legendary quality that few of these others possess. Keaton was a huge box office draw and many of these voters will have seen him move from comedy star in the 1980’s to Batman and into smaller, more idiosyncratic roles thereafter. He’s the only true veteran here and you don’t get to that point in your career without becoming a big name. The only other potential winner here is Eddie Redmayne. He doesn’t have the career longevity of his fellow nominees and is quite a bit younger than all of them. While SAG and Oscar voters can go young, they seldom go that young. However, his physical transformation will give method actors all sorts of pleasure, which may give him an edge among those who want actors to Act with a Capital-A.
Peter J. Patrick: SAG will go with front-runner Keaton, but Cumberbatch could pull a surprise win based on his personal popularity.
Tripp Burton: This is becoming the biggest fight of the season, and winning a SAG award will help someone a lot. Both Eddie Redmayne and Michael Keaton won Golden Globes, and they will probably duke it out here too. My hunch tells me the physical transformation of Eddie Redmayne, along with the film’s warm feel and success on screeners, will triumph over the hipper yet more divisive Birdman star. What happens, though, if Benedict Cumberbatch or Steve Carell manages a win? And this category is missing Bradley Cooper, who still could be an Oscar spoiler! This race is so much fun.
Thomas LaTourette: I think they will choose Michael Keaton, partly for his longevity and for the comeback he had with this picture. He is well respected by other actors and that love should carry through to a win. Both Eddie Redmayne and Benedict Cumberbatch turned in very good performances, but their respective youth may keep them from winning. Keaton should win, but it will be close.

Best Actress

Jennifer Aniston – Cake (RU:Peter, RU:Thomas)
Felicity Jones – The Theory of Everything
Julianne Moore – Still Alice (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, Thomas)
Rosamund Pike – Gone Girl
Reese Witherspoon – Wild (RU:Wesley, RU:Tripp)

Wesley Lovell: Looking over this list, when you find that two most veteran, familiar names on the list are either TV actresses trying to become grown-up actors, comedy actors trying to become serious actors or longtime character actors seeking their first major career recognition. Felicity Jones is lucky to be nominated and although she might get support from television actors, Jennifer Aniston’s chances are just not that good. Rosamund Pike would be a good spoiler if her film were better loved. Reese Witherspoon might be a shoo-in were she not already rewarded for her performance in Walk the Line (including at SAG). That leaves only Julianne Moore. Her five Oscar nominations might seem like a lot, but compared to her 11 SAG nominations, it seems like nothing. She just won two years ago on the TV side, but that doesn’t preclude her from winning here. If she loses, look for lots of buzz leading towards her potential defeat at the Oscars.
Peter J. Patrick: If Aniston ever had a chance of winning anything for Cake it’s with this body which is comprised on mostly non-working actors for whom she is a bit of an idol. Still, I doubt she has enough support to beat front-runner Moore.
Tripp Burton: No one has ever won a SAG Award without also being Oscar nominated, so Jennifer Aniston won’t put up the fight here we thought possible. Her studio botched the whole thing. Julianne Moore for the win is the safest bet.
Thomas LaTourette: Moore has been the front-runner here for sometime, and I donโ€™t see her not winning. The fact that she has several nominations without a win, should swing her some sympathy votes as well. She should handily win. If anyone were to upset her, I think it could be Jennifer Aniston, whose many years in television and films could garner support form a large group of voters.

Best Supporting Actor

Robert Duvall – The Judge (RU:Tripp)
Ethan Hawke – Boyhood
Edward Norton – Birdman (RU:Wesley, RU:Peter, RU:Thomas)
Mark Ruffalo – Foxcatcher
J.K. Simmons – Whiplash (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, Thomas)

Wesley Lovell: Were he not the presumptive frontrunner, I still would have cited long-time character actor J.K. Simmons for this recognition. He has the kind of successful career most frequently-working actors dream of and, as a character actor, appeals more to those who will never be able to be the big marquee names others are. Edward Norton could be a threat, but it’s doubtful. Mark Ruffalo has a shot on the TV side, but not here. Ethan Hawke is a journeyman actor who’s recognizable to many SAG members, but I’m not sure he has what it take to overtake Simmons. Duvall, on the other hand, is one of the most veteran actors nominated this year. Yet, his movie wasn’t good and most people dismiss this as a token career honor.
Peter J. Patrick: Simmons has won just about everything else this year. I don’t see SAG upsetting his apple cart. Norton is likely a distant second.
Tripp Burton: This category seems pretty well sewn up, and Simmons is just riding along to the Oscars.
Thomas LaTourette: J.K. Simmons has had the lead in this category for a long time, and should easily win. He has worked steadily for years, and had a career-defining role, it is hard to picture him not winning. Veteran Robert Duvall will siphon off some votes, but if anyone were to pass him, I would think it would be Edward Norton for his no holds barred role in Birdman.

Best Supporting Actress

Patricia Arquette – Boyhood (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, Thomas)
Keira Knightley – The Imitation Game
Emma Stone – Birdman (RU:Wesley, RU:Peter, RU:Thomas)
Meryl Streep – Into the Woods (RU:Tripp)
Naomi Watts – St. Vincent

Wesley Lovell: With her background in television, including three SAG nominations for her work on Medium, Arquette has just enough love from her fellow actors to pull through. Hers is probably the second weakest of this year’s competitors, eclipsed only by the incredibly tight Best Actor race. Meryl Streep has enough of these trophies that voters aren’t like to give her another. Naomi Watts is the throwaway role in the group leaving the role of spoiler as a toss-up between Harvey Weinstein-backed Keira Knightley and young ingenue Emma Stone. While Knightley isn’t even close to being an old lady, she has significant acting history, giving her an edge over Stone who does fine work, but may be too young even for this group.
Peter J. Patrick: Arquette is as predictable a winner as anyone this year. Stone, like co-star Norton in his category, is a distant second.
Tripp Burton: I keep expecting Arquette to flail somewhere on the trail (it just isn’t the kind of performance that can usually create an awards juggernaut), but the problem with that is there isn’t anyone really to step into her place. It’s a lovely performance, and I’m happy she’s winning, but right now I don’t think she’s winning as much as the others are losing votes. Should be interesting.
Thomas LaTourette: Patricia Arquette will continue steamrolling through the competition and win here. She has won the lionโ€™s share of awards so far, and will add the SAG statuette as well. I canโ€™t picture anyone beating her, but will put young Emma Stone in as the runner-up just in case there is a huge upset.

Best Stunt Cast

Fury (Thomas, RU:Wesley, RU:Peter)
Get On Up
The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies (RU:Tripp, RU:Thomas)
Unbroken (Wesley, Peter, Tripp)
X-Men: Days of Future Past

Wesley Lovell: Without seeing the actual size of the casts nominated for this award, it’s hard to know how voters will go. The Hobbit and X-Men seem like films that are made almost entirely on the studio green screens, which won’t likely help their cases. Get On Up is a rather surprising inclusion, so I doubt it will get much traction. Between Fury and Unbroken, Angelina Jolie’s film seems like it has the more daunting task for stunt performers with serious torturous events going on in a P.O.W. camp. Of course, I know very little about what SAG favors here, so mine are merely guesses.
Peter J. Patrick: This one’s just a guess, but I suspect the film that employs the most stunt performers will win.
Tripp Burton: Your guess is as good as mine. I can see any of these winning.
Thomas LaTourette: This could go many ways, but I am thinking the serious Fury will win over the fantasy films X-Men and The Hobbit.

PRODUCERS GUILD OF AMERICA AWARDS

Best Picture

American Sniper
Birdman
Boyhood (Peter, Tripp, RU:Wesley)
Foxcatcher
Gone Girl
The Grand Budapest Hotel (RU:Peter, RU:Tripp, RU:Thomas)
The Imitation Game (Wesley, Thomas)
Nightcrawler
The Theory of Everything
Whiplash

Wesley Lovell: After this weekend, the narrative will either be: Boyhood is an unstoppable juggernaut or Boyhood goes down in defeat and faces an uphill battle. SAG is unlikely to go its way, but the PGA could keep momentum going. The problem is going to be just how much the producers mind a film this small winning their very big award. With the sudden burst of box office, American Sniper could be poised to overtake Boyhood with producers, especially since the group tends to be a bit more conservative than the actors and wouldn’t mind giving it to their old boy Clint. Harvey Weinstein could also make a solid play for The Imitation Game and that’s the way I’m currently leaning. Boyhood just seems too small for this group to support, but I will not be surprised if they give it the prize.
Peter J. Patrick: There’s no reason to think the PGA won’t fall in line with most groups and award Boyhood the top prize. If there’s an upset, The Grand Budapest Hotel has as good a chance as any.
Tripp Burton: For the past 8 years, the PGA winner has gone on to win Best Picture at the Oscars, so there is a lot of pressure here. My guess is that the unique challenge of producing Boyhood, along with the film’s popularity and front-runner status, should cement it a win here pretty easily. If not, though, things might be more interesting than we thought over the next month.
Thomas LaTourette: I have no idea how they will vote here. Often a major Oscar front-runner or at least a high producing box office film will win. However, there isn’t a blockbuster this year and there really is not a true Oscar leader. Boyhood has by far the most precursor awards, but it just does not feel like the type of film they normally choose. Gone Girl did earn over 167 million dollars domestically, but thrillers are not usually their style. The next one down on the list is The Grand Budapest Hotel, though that is also not their usual winner. I think they may go for The Imitation Game, as it is doing reasonably well at the box office and is more the prestige type of film that they like to choose. If it doesnโ€™t win, then it is probably a race between Boyhood and The Grand Budapest Hotel, with probably Hotel having a bit better chance because of its better box office returns.

Best Animated Feature

Big Hero 6 (Thomas, RU:Tripp)
The Book of Life
The Boxtrolls
How to Train Your Dragon 2 (RU:Wesley, RU:Peter)
The Lego Movie (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, RU:Thomas)

Wesley Lovell: Although it’s out of the Oscar race, The Lego Movie was a huge hit and should have little trouble winning over the PGA. Big Hero 6 and How to Train Your Dragon 2 are also very likely contenders based on their major studio connections.
Peter J. Patrick: The PGA should and will make up for the Academy’s oversight and award The Lego Movie. I’m not expecting an upset, but How to Train Your Dragon 2 seems as likely as anything
Tripp Burton: At this point, the question becomes whether The Lego Movie can save some face and take a few of these precursors, or if it really isn’t that popular and something else is ready to take its crown. My guess is it wins here, especially since it is such a triumph of taking something seemingly dead-in-the-water and turning it into a beloved hit.
Thomas LaTourette: Disney films have done well over the years with the PGA, so I could see them honoring Big Hero 6. If they go just by the domestic gross, then they might choose to honor The Lego Movie, especially after the Oscar snub. There is also the Golden Globe winning How to Train Your Dragon 2 in the mix, though DreamWorks films have not done as well here. Big Hero 6 was the most recently released of the films and may be brightest in their minds, so I think it will win.

Best Documentary

The Green Prince
Life Itself (Peter, Tripp, Thomas, RU:Wesley)
Merchants of Doubt
Particle Fever
Virunga (Wesley, RU:Tripp, RU:Thomas)

Wesley Lovell: Everyone was shocked when Life Itself was passed over at the Oscars. Yet, that type of omission happens a lot, even with the revisions to the rules they use. Does that mean it will perform well with PGA? I’m doubtful. Virunga is the only Oscar nominee represented here, which I think gives it a slight edge on the competition.
Peter J. Patrick: I’m not familiar with any of nominees other than Life Itself which I suspect will win.
Tripp Burton: It is interesting that CitizenFour, seemingly the most popular documentary of the year awards-wise, was left off this list. That should open up for Life Itself to win a make-up for its Oscar shutout.
Thomas LaTourette: I think the PGA may honor the more life affirming film in Life Itself, otherwise they might go for the stark realities of Virunga.

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