What a long, strange trip it’s been. The Oscars have had a feeling of predictability for years now, but this year proved a different type of beast. First, Spotlight was trouncing the competition and no one was sure Mad Max: Fury Road would get most of the nominations it eventually got. Then, The Big Short opened and became itself a sudden spoiler. It even made it as far as a Producers Guild of America win. Yet, even that began to fade as The Revenant quietly built steam into what seems like a probable victory thanks to its Directors Guild and BAFTA awards. Meanwhile, the lead acting races seem finalized, but the supporting races could go any which way.

It feels like an exciting race, but once the envelopes are opened, will it seem nearly as open-ended as everyone thinks or will it feel like we’ve had another predictable telecast finish off the season. Last year, many thought Boyhood was going to triumph over the unusual Birdman, but Alejandro G. Inarritu pulled it out in the end managing to topple Boyhood even in Best Director where no one thought it possible before he won DGA. Could the same thing happen this year? It’s possible, but things seem to have settled around one particular winner in several categories and we’ll look for down-ballot awards for validation or surprise.

Here are the Cinema Sight contributors’ final predictions along with brief commentary from most of them. We’ll see you on Sunday night as the Oscar winners are revealed for the eighty-eighth time.

KEY:

Appears on Four Lists Appears on Three Lists Appears on Two Lists Wesley Lovell Peter Patrick Tripp Burton Thomas LaTourrette

[New] = New Prediction [Return] = Prior Prediction Returning (O) = Original Prediction (R) = Rundown Series (F) = Final Nomination Predictions

Best Picture

• The Big Short (TB R)
• Bridge of Spies
• Brooklyn
• Mad Max: Fury Road
• The Martian
• The Revenant (WL R)(TL O)
• Room
• Spotlight (PP O)

Runners Up

• The Big Short (TL R)
• The Revenant (PP R) (TB R)
• Spotlight (WL R)

Wesley Lovell: The Revenant by a nose over Spotlight with The Big Short and Mad Max: Fury Road waiting in the wings.
Peter J. Patrick: With nothing certain, I’m going with my original prediction of Spotlight, with Golden Globe and BAFTA winner The Revenant the closest runner-up.
Tripp Burton: No commentary
Thomas La Tourrette: In a race between three films, The Revenant looks like it will come out on top, though The Big Short will give it a run for its money.

Best Animated Feature

• Anomalisa
• Boy and the World
• Inside Out (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• Shaun the Sheep Movie
• When Marnie Was There

Runners Up

• Anomalisa (WL O) (PP F) [New] (TB O) (TL O)

Wesley Lovell: There’s not stopping Inside Out.
Peter J. Patrick: Inside Out is a virtual certainty here, but if there is an upset it’s likely to go to Anomalisa.
Tripp Burton: No commentary
Thomas La Tourrette: Inside Out is definitely going to win.

Best Director

• Lenny Abrahamson – Room
• Alejandro G. Inarritu – The Revenant (WL R) (WL R)(TL O)
• Tom McCarthy – Spotlight
• Adam McKay – The Big Short (TB R)
• George Miller – Mad Max: Fury Road

Runners Up

• Alejandro G. Inarritu – The Revenant (TB R)
• Tom McCarthy – Spotlight (PP R)
• George Miller – Mad Max: Fury Road (WL R)(TL O)

Wesley Lovell: DGA is rarely wrong, so a second Oscar for Inarritu in Best Director.
Peter J. Patrick: Inarritu is the heavy favorite. My personal pick would be McCarthy who directed the year’s best ensemble.
Tripp Burton: No commentary
Thomas La Tourrette: Inarritu makes history as only the third director to win back-to-back awards.

Best Actor

• Bryan Cranston – Trumbo
• Matt Damon – The Martian
• Leonardo DiCaprio – The Revenant (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• Michael Fassbender – Steve Jobs
• Eddie Redmayne – The Danish Girl

Runners Up

• Bryan Cranston – Trumbo (TL F) [New]
• Matt Damon – The Martian (PP F) [New]
• Michael Fassbender – Steve Jobs (WL O) (TL R)

Wesley Lovell: The biggest upset of the night would be DiCaprio losing.
Peter J. Patrick: DiCaprio is such a heavy favorite that none of the other nominees have much of a chance, but maybe, just maybe, the voters will throw a monkey wrench into the proceedings and give it to his contemporary, Matt Damon.
Tripp Burton: No commentary
Thomas La Tourrette: DiCaprio has this in the bag. After many nominations, he will easily beat Cranston and Fassbender.

Best Actress

• Cate Blanchett – Carol
• Brie Larson – Room (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• Jennifer Lawrence – Joy
• Charlotte Rampling – 45 Years
• Saoirse Ronan – Brooklyn

Runners Up

• Charlotte Rampling – 45 Years (TB R)
• Saoirse Ronan – Brooklyn (WL O) (PP O)(TL O)

Wesley Lovell: Another shocker would be seeing Larson going down in defeat.
Peter J. Patrick: Larson has been winning most of the precursors. Those she hasn’t won have gone primarily to Ronan who is her only likely runner-up.
Tripp Burton: No commentary
Thomas La Tourrette: Larson has had this sewn up for months.

Best Supporting Actor

• Christian Bale – The Big Short
• Tom Hardy – The Revenant
• Mark Ruffalo – Spotlight
• Mark Rylance – Bridge of Spies (PP O) (TB O)
• Sylvester Stallone – Creed (WL R)(TL R)

Runners Up

• Tom Hardy – The Revenant (TL R)
• Mark Ruffalo – Spotlight (WL R)
• Sylvester Stallone – Creed (PP O) (TB F) [New]

Wesley Lovell: Stallone is the sentimental favorite, but any one of his competitors could sneak in over a career win for a career of mostly nothing.
Peter J. Patrick: Stallone is the sentimental favorite, but sentiment doesn’t always win Oscars. Rylance’s quietly effective work in Bridge of Spies is my predicted winner.
Tripp Burton: No commentary
Thomas La Tourrette: Stallone is the likely winner, though I am hoping for an upset by either Hardy or Rylance.

Best Supporting Actress

• Jennifer Jason Leigh – The Hateful Eight
• Rooney Mara – Carol
• Rachel McAdams – Spotlight
• Alicia Vikander – The Danish Girl (WL R) (PP R)(TL O)
• Kate Winslet – Steve Jobs (TB F) [New]

Runners Up

• Alicia Vikander – The Danish Girl (TB F) [New]
• Kate Winslet – Steve Jobs (WL F) [New] (PP F) [New](TL F) [New]

Wesley Lovell: Vikander has the edge, but only slightly.
Peter J. Patrick: I started out predicting Vikander but switched to Winslet after her Globe and BAFTA wins. Now I’m switching back. I’m fairly certain one of the two will win.
Tripp Burton: No commentary
Thomas La Tourrette: Vikander is the likely winner, but Winslet or Mara could pull an upset.

Best Original Screenplay

• Bridge of Spies
• Ex Machina
• Inside Out
• Spotlight (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• Straight Outta Compton

Runners Up

• Straight Outta Compton (WL R) (PP F) [New] (TB F) [New] (TL R)

Wesley Lovell: It would be surprising if Spotlight didn’t win.
Peter J. Patrick: Spotlight is the clear favorite here, but if anything can upset, it seems likely to be the equally complex Straight Outta Compton.
Tripp Burton: No commentary
Thomas La Tourrette: Spotlight should easily win.

Best Adapted Screenplay

• The Big Short (WL O) (PP R) (TB O) (TL R)
• Brooklyn
• Carol
• The Martian
• Room

Runners Up

• Room (WL O) (PP F) [New] (TB R) (TL R)

Wesley Lovell: The Big Short may have the edge, but sentiment sometimes trumps intelligent.
Peter J. Patrick: The Big Short is the likely winner here, but a win for Room would not be a major surprise.
Tripp Burton: No commentary
Thomas La Tourrette: The Big Short should also easily win.

Best Original Score

• Bridge of Spies
• Carol
• The Hateful Eight (WL O) (PP R) (TB R) (TL O)
• Sicario
• Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Runners Up

• Carol (WL O) (PP F) [New]
• Star Wars: The Force Awakens (TB R) (TL O)

Wesley Lovell: The standing ovation for Ennio Morricone will be lengthy.
Peter J. Patrick: Voters vote for the film, not the composer, but anyone who doesn’t know a win for The Hateful Eight goes to 87-year-old Ennio Morricone isn’t worthy of their Academy membership.
Tripp Burton: No commentary
Thomas La Tourrette: Ennio Morricone takes home his first competitive Oscar for a fairly weak score.

Best Original Song

• “Earned It” – Fifty Shades of Grey
• “Manta Ray” – Racing Extinction
• “Simple Song #3” – Youth
• “Til It Happens to You” – The Hunting Ground (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• “Writing’s On the Wall” – Spectre

Runners Up

• “Writing’s On the Wall” – Spectre (WL O) (PP O) (TB R) (TL O)

Wesley Lovell: Diane Warren will finally get a little golden guy with an assist from Lady Gaga…unless something strange happens, which, with this category, frequently happens.
Peter J. Patrick: I think Diane Warren and Lady Gaga will win this hands down.
Tripp Burton: No commentary
Thomas La Tourrette: Lady Gaga and Diane Warren (finally on her eighth nomination) take home the Oscar.

Best Film Editing

• The Big Short
• Mad Max: Fury Road (WL O) (TB R) (TL O)
• The Revenant
• Spotlight (PP R)
• Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Runners Up

• The Big Short (TL R)
• The Revenant (WL F) [New] (PP F) [New] (TB F) [New]

Wesley Lovell: This is Mad Max: Fury Road‘s to lose.
Peter J. Patrick: One never knows what to expect with the editing award which is sometimes an indicator of what will win Best Picture. If that’s the case this year, I would expect Spotlight to take this one against the odds.
Tripp Burton: No commentary
Thomas La Tourrette: Mad Max ekes out a victory over The Big Short.

Best Cinematography

• Carol
• The Hateful Eight
• Mad Max: Fury Road
• The Revenant (WL O) (PP R) (TB O) (TL O)
• Sicario

Runners Up

• Mad Max: Fury Road (WL O) (TB R) (TL R)
• Sicario (PP F) [New]

Wesley Lovell: The Revenant can easily count this one in the win column.
Peter J. Patrick: Another almost certain win for The Revenant with Sicario a distant long-shot.
Tripp Burton: No commentary
Thomas La Tourrette: Emmanuel Lubezki wins an unprecedented third straight award for his gorgeous work on The Revenant.

Best Production Design

• Bridge of Spies
• The Danish Girl
• Mad Max: Fury Road (WL O) (TB O) (TL R)
• The Martian (PP F) [New]
• The Revenant

Runners Up

• Bridge of Spies (WL O)
• The Danish Girl (PP F) [New] (TB R)

Wesley Lovell: Mad Max: Fury Road has been pulling ahead recently, but traditionalism might sink it.
Peter J. Patrick: I have no idea what the voters will pick, but if I had a ballot my vote would go to The Martian.
Tripp Burton: No commentary
Thomas La Tourrette: The post-apocalyptic Mad Max beats out Mars.

Best Costume Design

• Carol
• Cinderella (WL R) (TB O)
• The Danish Girl (PP F) [New]
• Mad Max: Fury Road (TL R)
• The Revenant

Runners Up

• Carol (PP F) [New](TL R)
• Mad Max: Fury Road (WL O) (TB R)

Wesley Lovell: Cinderella may be the frontrunner, but it’s not a slam dunk by any means as Mad Max will attempt to attest.
Peter J. Patrick: Period costumes do best here. The stylish costumes of both Carol and Cinderella were my one-two picks until the Costume Designer’s Guild chimed in with The Danish Girl which now seems poised to win
Tripp Burton: No commentary
Thomas La Tourrette: The grubby looking work of Mad Max may well squeak out a victory over Sandy Powell’s gowns of both Carol and Cinderella, though this is one category I do not feel sure about.

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

• The 100-Year-Old Man Who Climbed Out the Window and Disappeared (PP O)
• Mad Max: Fury Road (WL O) (TB O) (TL O)
• The Revenant

Runners Up

• The Revenant (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)

Wesley Lovell: Another for Mad Max: Fury Road to lose and probably the most shocking if it does occur.
Peter J. Patrick: I would love to see the unlikely 100-Year-Old Man win this.
Tripp Burton: No commentary
Thomas La Tourrette: Mad Max should be the easy winner here, unless The Revenant sweeps through almost all categories it is nominated for.

Best Sound Mixing

• Bridge of Spies
• Mad Max: Fury Road (TB O)
• The Martian
• The Revenant (WL R)(TL R)
• Star Wars: The Force Awakens (PP R)

Runners Up

• Mad Max: Fury Road (WL O)(TL R)
• The Martian (PP F) [New]
• Star Wars: The Force Awakens (TB R)

Wesley Lovell: Any film could win, but The Revenant is ahead by a nose.
Peter J. Patrick: I liked the subtlety of The Martian‘s sounds, but it’s the loudest contender that tends to win this one, so I suspect it will be Star Wars.
Tripp Burton: No commentary
Thomas La Tourrette: Until the CAS awards, Mad Max or Star Wars seemed the likely winners, but a win by The Revenant puts it into the frontrunner’s spot.

Best Sound Editing

• Mad Max: Fury Road (TB R)
• The Martian
• The Revenant (WL R)(TL R)
• Sicario
• Star Wars: The Force Awakens (PP R)

Runners Up

• Mad Max: Fury Road (WL O)(TL O)
• The Martian (PP F) [New]
• Star Wars: The Force Awakens (TB R)

Wesley Lovell: This category too often goes along with Best Sound Mixing, so a companion Oscar for The Revenant seems expected.
Peter J. Patrick: I liked the subtlety of The Martian‘s sounds, but it’s the loudest contender that tends to win this one, so I suspect it will be Star Wars.
Tripp Burton: No commentary
Thomas La Tourrette: This could still go to Mad Max or Star Wars, but it seems that The Revenant has become the film to beat here.

Best Visual Effects

• Ex Machina
• Mad Max: Fury Road
• The Martian
• The Revenant
• Star Wars: The Force Awakens (WL O) (PP R) (TB O) (TL O)

Runners Up

• Mad Max: Fury Road (WL O) (TB R) (TL O)
• The Revenant (PP F) [New]

Wesley Lovell: The lone category Star Wars: The Force Awakens has a chance at winning.
Peter J. Patrick: Star Wars was the most spectacular, but The Revenant has the bear. It’s a close call.
Tripp Burton: No commentary
Thomas La Tourrette: Star Wars should win, but Mad Max will put up a good fight.

Best Foreign Language Film

• Embrace of the Serpent
• Mustang
• Son of Saul (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• Theeb
• A War

Runners Up

• Mustang (WL O) (TB O) (TL O)
• Theeb (PP F) [New]

Wesley Lovell: It would be unusual if Son of Saul didn’t win.
Peter J. Patrick: The Holocast drama Son of Saul is such an overwhelming favorite that nothing else has much of a chance, but if there is an upset my bet would be on the World War I desert epic Theeb.
Tripp Burton: No commentary
Thomas La Tourrette: Son of Saul should easily win unless the Academy wants to go with the easier-to-watch, though still very good, Mustang.

Best Documentary Feature

• Amy (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• Cartel Land
• The Look of Silence
• What Happened, Miss Simone?
• Winter on Fire: Ukraine’s Fight for Freedom

Runners Up

• The Look of Silence (WL O) (PP O)
• What Happened, Miss Simone? (TL F) [New]
• Winter on Fire: Ukraine’s Fight for Freedom (TB O)

Wesley Lovell: Amy has this like a penny rolling up a pipe.
Peter J. Patrick: Both Amy and The Look of Silence have been winning precursors. I expect one or the other will prevail at the Oscars.
Tripp Burton: No commentary
Thomas La Tourrette: Amy has been the frontrunner for months and is still the likely winner

Best Documentary Short Subject

• Body Team 12
• Chau, Beyond the Lines (WL F) [New]
• Claude Lanzmann: Spectres of the Shoah
• A Girl in the River: The Price of Forgiveness (PP R) (TB R) (TL F) [New]
• Last Day of Freedom

Runners Up

• Chau, Beyond the Lines (TB R) (TL F) [New]
• A Girl in the River: The Price of Forgiveness (WL F) [New]
• Last Day of Freedom (PP R)

Wesley Lovell: I have gone with sentiment over sorrow with Chau edging out all competitors.
Peter J. Patrick: Both A Girl in the River and Last Day of Freedom strike the somber tone of most previous winners. One or the other should win here.
Tripp Burton: No commentary
Thomas La Tourrette: A Girl in the River has stayed with me more than the others, but it is a harder film to watch than either Chau or Body Team 12. Claude Lanzmann has been getting more support, but I found it one of the weaker entries. The outrage that Girl raises may take it to the winner’s circle.

Best Animated Short Film

• Bear Story
• Prologue
• Sanjay’s Super Team (PP F) [New] (TB O)
• We Can’t Live Without Cosmos
• World of Tomorrow (WL O)(TL O)

Runners Up

• Sanjay’s Super Team (WL O)(TL O)
• World of Tomorrow (PP F) [New] (TB O)

Wesley Lovell: I say World of Tomorrow. I want World of Tomorrow. I expect to be disappointed.
Peter J. Patrick: Either Sanjay’s Super Team or World of Tomorrow should take this one.
Tripp Burton: No commentary
Thomas La Tourrette: The bizarre World of Tomorrow was definitely more memorable than the glitzy Sanjay, and hopefully the Academy will award it.

Best Live-Action Short Film

• Ave Maria (WL F) [New]
• Day One (TL F) [New]
• Everything Will Be Okay (PP F) [New] (TB R)
• Shok
• Stutterer

Runners Up

• Stutterer (WL F) [New] (PP F) [New] (TB R)

Wesley Lovell: I have no idea what will win, but Ave Maria seems like a decent bet.
Peter J. Patrick: This one’s just a guess.
Tripp Burton: No commentary
Thomas La Tourrette: Day One was definitely a film one will remember, though the charming Stutterer or the serious Shok could stage an upset.