Four contributors. Four different predictions to win. The only candidate that has a majority support is Mad Max: Fury Road with one winner projection and two runner-up predictions. Clearly this is anyone’s race and might be the best hint at what might be coming up from Oscar.

DIRECTORS GUILD OF AMERICA AWARDS

Best Director

Alejandro G. Inarritu – The Revenant (RU:Wesley)
Tom McCarthy – Spotlight (Peter)
Adam McKay – The Big Short (Tripp)
George Miller – Mad Max: Fury Road (Wesley, RU:Tripp, RU:Thomas)
Ridley Scott – The Martian (Thomas, RU:Peter)

Wesley Lovell: While I could see a tough competition resulting in something rather irregular with this group (like Tom McCarthy or Adam McKay) winning, but ultimately with no Best Picture frontrunner, the voters may choose whichever director they think had the most challenging task and there’s no question that’s Mad Max: Fury Road, a film that had to coordinate dozens of cars in real time crashing and chasing one another, keeping the action taut, pace tight and story flowing, the sheer spectacle that George Miller achieved may be just what this group ordered. Of course, Alejandro G. Inarritu could win a second consecutive prize (a first in the history of the DGA) and propel his film into a position of becoming the Oscar frontrunner or they could give a career nod to Ridley Scott. It’s hard to say at this point. Miller has the preponderance of precursors in his favor with 18 victories in his favor, but at this point anything could happen.
Peter J. Patrick: It seems to me that any of the nominees could win the Feature Film Award but I’m going to go out on a limb and predict the under-appreciated Tom McCarthy for Spotlight, with a valedictory award for Ridley Scott for The Martina the runner-up.
Tripp Burton: Wow, I have no idea where this will lead to. I think that Spotlight and The Big Short are our frontrunners for Best Picture, so logic would state that one of the two of them would win here. However, the other three nominees are for much *bigger* movies with really obvious directorial challenges. Alejandro G. Inarritu has been playing up his film’s difficulty to the max, but he just won last year. Ridley Scott seems due for a big prize, but he doesn’t have a corresponding Oscar nomination. George Miller is the most celebrated of the bunch this year, but is Mad Max starting to fade in voters’ eyes? This is going to keep us all up late on Saturday night, and in the end might not tell us too much more about how the Oscars are going to turn out.
Thomas LaTourette: A case could be made for any of these men winning here, and it is a very difficult race to predict. George Miller and Ridley Scott have long histories of making films and not getting that much recognition. Alejandro G. Inarritu was last year’s winner but I have seen no instance where the guild gave out back-to-back awards, which may hurt his chances. Tom McCarthy and Adam McKay have been directing films, though both have done some of iffy quality. McKay and Inarritu have films that are currently doing well at the box office, which could help them. iller has by far the most precursor awards, though I do not know that the guild is overly influenced by film critics. It really could go any way. The guild could simplify the Oscar race by crowning a winner that could then go on to win the Oscar. However, I feel that they are likely to go for the non-nominated Scott for The Martian, which will certainly muddy the water even more for predicting the Oscars. If they give it to anyone else, I think it likely to be Miller for Mad Max.

Best First Feature

Alex Garland – Ex Machina (Wesley, RU:Peter, RU:Thomas)
Laszlo Nemes – Son of Saul (Peter, Thomas, RU:Wesley)
Joel Edgerton – The Gift
Marielle Heller – The Diary of a Teenage Girl
Fernando Coimbra – A Wolf at the Door

Wesley Lovell: It might be easy to pick out the more dramatic feature for a win, meaning Laszlo Nemes would take the prize, but I wonder if the reason for this inaugural award is to recognize someone like Alex Garland who’s likely destined for bigger and more prominent projects in the near future.
Peter J. Patrick: For First Time Feature Film I see only two possibilities, the brilliant Laszlo Nemes for his acclaimed Holocaust film Son of Saul and Alex Garland for his modern day take on the Frankenstein legend, Ex Machina. I could see either one taking it, but I’m going to give the edge to Nemes.

Thomas LaTourette: Laszlo Nemes seems likely to triumph, as his film has been a major award winner. From all I hear, it is a striking film debut. Alex Garland’s Ex Machina has been talked about a lot, and if the guild wants an easier choice, it might win. But I thoroughly expect Nemes and Son of Saul to win.

Best Documentary Director

Jimmy Chin, Elizabeth Chai Vasarhelyis – Meru (RU:Wesley)
Liz Garbus – What Happened, Miss Simone?
Alex Gibney – Going Clear: Scientology and the Prison of Belief (RU:Peter, RU:Thomas)
Matthew Heineman – Cartel Land
Asif Kapadia – Amy (Wesley, Peter, Thomas)

Wesley Lovell: When in doubt, go for the leader in the Best Documentary Feature race at the Oscars. While I lean towards Asif Kapadia, my secondary choice would be the directing team of Meru, which had a rather harrowing task in filming their documentary than any of the others.
Peter J. Patrick: For Documentary I see Asif Kapadia and his team behind the Amy Winehouse documentary Amy prevailing with Alex Gibney a strong possibility for the Scientology exposé Going Clear.

Thomas LaTourette: Amy has been dominant in the documentary field, winning most precursors and the ACE award, so I think its director, Asif Kapadia, will also win here. If anyone were to pull an upset, I think it would be Alex Gibney for Going Clear, the only person to already have a DGA nomination.