The end of the year brings the most combative environment for films trying to become Oscar winners. The next four months will be an interesting proving round.

February 6, 2015

Jupiter Ascending

Premise: From IMDb: “In the future, a young destitute human woman gets targeted for assassination by the Queen of the Universe, and begins her destiny to finish the Queen’s reign.”
Box Office Prospects: $90 M
Expectations: Good. While the film has gotten pushed back, likely because it isn’t that good, the trailers have been very exciting and anyone wanting to catch the Wachowski’s at their sci-fi action roots will want to check the film out. With little else of note on the horizon, it could do well.
Oscar Prospects: Uncertain. The film certainly has the look of a film that would compete in numerous tech categories, but most movies that release in February or quickly and easily forgotten by the time Oscar nominations roll around. Should the film impress critics and do superb box office, it might have a chance of being remembered, but I doubt either will be the case.

Seventh Son

Premise: From IMDb: “Young Thomas is apprenticed to the local Spook to learn to fight evil spirits. His first great challenge comes when the powerful Mother Malkin escapes her confinement while the Spook is away.”
Box Office Prospects: $35 M
Expectations: Uncertain. Counter-programming a sci-fi film with a fantasy film seems like cutting off your own nose to spite your face. This film has been pushed back once already. It doesn’t sound like anyone has confidence in it and other than fans of the source material, I can’t imagine it topping Jupiter Ascending.
Oscar Prospects: None.

The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water

Premise: From IMDb: “SpongeBob goes on a quest to discover a stolen recipe that takes him to our dimension, our world, where he tangles with a pirate.”
Box Office Prospects: $50 M
Expectations: The first SpongeBob movie, eleven years ago, made around $85 million at the box office. The show was then at the height of its popularity. While it still has its fans, I doubt they are as excited about seeing another big screen outing, though I could be surprised.
Oscar Prospects: None.

February 13, 2015

Fifty Shades of Grey

Premise: From IMDb: “Literature student Anastasia Steele’s life changes forever when she meets handsome, yet tormented, billionaire Christian Grey.”
Box Office Prospects: $180 M
Expectations: Good. The film is poised to leverage its massive book audience into box office gold. Releasing over Valentine’s Day is sure to increase attendance and turn this into one of the bigger romantic drama hits in recent years.
Oscar Prospects: None.

Kinsgman: The Secret Service

Premise: From IMDb: “A veteran secret agent takes a young upstart under his wing.”
Box Office Prospects: $70 M
Expectations: Uncertain. Traditional spy thrillers can do incredibly well at the box office. However, this film isn’t a very traditional narrative and skews younger in its potential demographic, which might hinder its potential for strong performance.
Oscar Prospects: None.

February 20, 2015

The DUFF

Premise: From IMDb: “A high school senior instigates a social pecking order revolution after finding out that she has been labeled the DUFF (Designated Ugly Fat Friend) to her prettier more popular friends.”
Box Office Prospects: $60 M
Expectations: Uncertain. Teen-targeted dramas and comedies set in high school are a hit-or-miss proposition with more missing than hitting. Yet, obviously the studio has some measure of confidence in the film to be releasing it wide.
Oscar Prospects: None.

Hot Tub Time Machine 2

Premise: From IMDb: “When Lou, who has become the “father of the Internet,” is shot by an unknown assailant, Jacob and Nick fire up the time machine again to save their friend.”
Box Office Prospects: $45 M
Expectations: Uncertain. The original film was a small hit for MGM five years ago. The problem is that sequels that occur so far after the original aired are struggling to perform in recent years. As such, I wouldn’t expect it to do much better than its predecessor and more likely do a little bit worse.
Oscar Prospects: None.

McFarland, USA

Premise: From IMDb: “A cross country coach in a small California town transforms a team of athletes into championship contenders.”
Box Office Prospects: $40 M
Expectations: As Disney’s Jon Hamm starrer Million Dollar Arm proved last year, family dramas about sports successes against adversity don’t typically perform well at the box office. It if can tap into a sizable audience interested in cross-country runners, it might do well. I wouldn’t count on it, though.
Oscar Prospects: None.

Wild Tales (Limited)

Premise: From IMDb: “A story about love deception, the return of the past, a tragedy, or even the violence contained in an everyday detail, appear themselves to push them towards the abyss, into the undeniable pleasure of losing control.”
Box Office Prospects: $500 K
Expectations: Uncertain. Like most foreign language films, this one doesn’t have the right level of cultural significance to draw mass audiences to the theater. Unless it wins the Oscar for Best Foreign Language Film, it’s likely not to earn very much at all.
Oscar Prospects: Weak. Making the Oscar nomination slate is likely its own reward. To compete against the likes of Ida and Leviathan isn’t an easily-surmountable position.

February 27, 2015

Focus

Premise: From IMDb: “A veteran grifter takes a young, attractive woman under his wing, but things get complicated when they become romantically involved.”
Box Office Prospects: $75 M
Expectations: Good. Even at his weakest, Will Smith still commands decent attendance at the box office. Other than two films in the last ten years (After Earth and Seven Pounds), all of his films have topped $100 million by a fairly wide margin. The reason I think this one will fail to live up to such expectations is that the film hasn’t gotten nearly enough advertising and remains one of the big question marks of the year. Releasing a film like this so far after Valentine’s Day is sure to diminish its potential.
Oscar Prospects: None.

The Lazarus Effect

Premise: From IMDb: “A group of medical students discover a way to bring dead patients back to life.”
Box Office Prospects: $45 M
Expectations: Weak. Although the film shares slight similarities to 1990’s Flatliners, the film’s lack of heavy advertising and distinct horror-alignment will likely have an adverse effect on its chances. It could still be a hit, but I’m doubtful.
Oscar Prospects: None.

’71 (Limited)

Premise: From IMDb: “A young and disoriented British soldier is accidentally abandoned by his unit following a riot on the deadly streets of Belfast in 1971.”
Box Office Prospects: $1.5 M
Expectations: Weak. Foreign imports, even ones in English, just don’t click with U.S. audiences, especially ones about a war Americans haven’t heard much about.
Oscar Prospects: None.

Maps to the Stars (Limited)

Premise: From IMDb: “A tour into the heart of a Hollywood family chasing celebrity, one another and the relentless ghosts of their pasts.”
Box Office Prospects: $500 K
Expectations: Poor. David Cronenberg just isn’t a box office draw and positionedin limited release in one of the worst months for such releases won’t help the film do much business.
Oscar Prospects: Uncertain. It wasn’t eligible for this year’s Oscars, though some groups nominated it for their awards without a U.S. release. Those who say Julianne Moore’s performance is spectacular also say the film just isn’t something the Academy would cozy up to. Releasing so far before the new Oscars suggests the film will be quickly forgotten, though Moore may not have to worry about that with her impending performance in Freeheld already jumping to lips as a potential back-to-back win for the actress (if she wins this year, that is).