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The end of the year brings the most combative environment for films trying to become Oscar winners. The next four months will be an interesting proving round.

March 6, 2015

Chappie

Premise: From IMDb: “In the near future, crime is patrolled by an oppressive mechanized police force. When one police droid, Chappie, is stolen and given new programming, he becomes the first robot with the ability to think and feel for himself.”
Box Office Prospects: $90 M
Expectations: Good. With two decent solid box office hits on his hand (Elysium was a disappointment, but still did well enough at the box office), Neill Blomkamp seems to know how to ply the sci-fi genre for what it’s worth. The film’s simple premise could be just enough to keep it in the ballpark of his prior films.
Oscar Prospects: Uncertain. His first film was a Best Picture nominee, but his subsequent film fell short with critics and the Oscars. All now depends on how good the film is. Releasing in March is probably not a good sign.

Unfinished Business

Premise: From IMDb: “A hard-working small business owner and his two associates travel to Europe to close the most important deal of their lives. But what began as a routine business trip goes off the rails in every imaginable – and unimaginable – way, including unplanned stops at a massive sex fetish event and a global economic summit.”
Box Office Prospects: $25 M
Expectations: Poor. Without his This Is the End cohorts, it seems likely that James Franco will find yet another in a long string of duds on his hands. The film could surprise as such comedies often do, but I suspect the limited advertising the film has received will doom its chances of a meaningful debut.
Oscar Prospects: None.

The Second Best Exotic Marigold Hotel (Limited)

Premise: From IMDb: “The Second Best Exotic Marigold Hotel is the expansionist dream of Sonny (Dev Patel), and it’s making more claims on his time than he has available, considering his imminent marriage to the love of his life, Sunaina (Tina Desai). Sonny has his eye on a promising property now that his first venture, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel for the Elderly and Beautiful, has only a single remaining vacancy – posing a rooming predicament for fresh arrivals Guy (Richard Gere) and Lavinia (Tamsin Greig). Evelyn and Douglas (Judi Dench and Bill Nighy) have now joined the Jaipur workforce, and are wondering where their regular dates for Chilla pancakes will lead, while Norman and Carol (Ronald Pickup and Diana Hardcastle) are negotiating the tricky waters of an exclusive relationship, as Madge (Celia Imrie) juggles two eligible and very wealthy suitors. Perhaps the only one who may know the answers is newly installed co-manager of the hotel, Muriel (Maggie Smith), the keeper of everyone’s secrets. As the demands of a traditional Indian wedding threaten to engulf them all, an unexpected way forward presents itself.”
Box Office Prospects: $40 M
Expectations: Weak. The first film wasn’t exactly a box office bonanza, but I’m guessing the DVD crowd loved it because here we have a sequel. That being said, I suspect the box office numbers won’t even match its predecessor’s. Possibly not even closely.
Oscar Prospects: None.

March 13, 2015

Cinderella

Premise: From IMDb: “A live-action retelling of the classic fairy tale about a servant step-daughter who wins the heart of a prince.”
Box Office Prospects: $200 M
Expectations: Excellent. The revisionist and live-action fairy tales that have been all the rage in recent years have proven to be terrific performers at the box office. Hot on the heels of the success of Maleficent, Oz: The Great and Powerful and Alice in Wonderland, Disney hopes to strike gold a fourth time with a new version of their classic animated hit Cinderella. I see little reason to doubt that the film will be anything less than a success.
Oscar Prospects: Uncertain. While Alice managed two Oscars out of three wins, Oz picked up nothing while Maleficent has a single nomination that it’s not likely to win. Cinderella seems like it will fall into the same realm of Oscar consideration as these films with possible Production Design, Costume Design and Visual Effects nominations, but the competition will be heavy and this film missing out on any or all of them is quite possible.

Run All Night

Premise: From IMDb: “An aging hitman is forced to take on his brutal former boss to protect his estranged son and his family.”
Box Office Prospects: $75 M
Expectations: Decent. Liam Neeson, in full action mode, is typically a strong performer at the box office. Pitting hitmen against each other could be a solid recipe, especially with Neeson facing off against Ed Harris. That said, I don’t expect him to get close to his Taken numbers.
Oscar Prospects: None.

March 20, 2015

The Divergent Series: Insurgent

Premise: From IMDb: “Beatrice Prior must confront her inner demons and continue her fight against a powerful alliance which threatens to tear her society apart with the help from others on her side.”
Box Office Prospects: $175 M
Expectations: Good. The first film took in a solid $150 million at the box office. Unlike others in its genre, I could see the sequel doing better at the box office than its predecessor since I doubt everyone who thought about seeing it at the theater actually did. I suspect many potential viewers were cautious because of all of the recent tween duds and decided to catch the first on video and, now that they found out it’s not nearly the misfire it could have been, I believe they’ll probably turn out at the box office.
Oscar Prospects: None.

Do You Believe?

Premise: From IMDb: “A dozen different souls-all moving in different directions, all longing for something more. As their lives unexpectedly intersect, they each are about to discover there is power in the Cross of Christ … even if they don’t yet believe it. When a local pastor is shaken to the core by the visible faith of an old street-corner preacher, he is reminded that true belief always requires action. His response ignites a faith-fueled journey that powerfully impacts everyone it touches in ways that only God could orchestrate. This stirring new film from the creators of God’s Not Dead arrives in theaters Spring of 2015. More than a movie, it’s a question we all must answer in our lifetimes: DO YOU BELIEVE?”
Box Office Prospects: $60 M
Expectations: Decent. Faith-based films have been doing fair business at the box office. They aren’t precisely blockbusters, but having large congregations take Sundays out at the movies, and the incredibly small budgets these films have, box office success can be small but still effective. I believe this will continue in that trend, though perhaps not score nearly as high as recent hits God’s Not Dead and Heaven Is for Real.
Oscar Prospects: None.

The Gunman

Premise: From IMDb: “A former Special Forces soldier and military contractor suffering from PTSD tries to reconnect with his long time love, but first must go on the run from London to Barcelona and across Europe in order to clear his name.”
Box Office Prospects: $25 M
Expectations: Weak. Sean Penn has never been a box office draw and his latest film seems targeted towards indie audiences more so than mass ones, suggesting that it will likely finish the weekend a distant third to the other wide releases.
Oscar Prospects: Poor. Were the film releasing late in the year, I might take seriously the early buzz that Penn delivers an Oscar-caliber performance. While I never underestimate Penn, this film seems a bit too much like The American in terms of how it might play to Oscar voters.

March 27, 2015

Get Hard

Premise: From IMDb: “When millionaire James King is nailed for fraud and bound for San Quentin, he turns to Darnell Lewis to prep him to go behind bars.”
Box Office Prospects: $100 M
Expectations: Good. Kevin Hart is getting a lot of work these days as his box office profile has risen. Paired with Will Ferrell, he should do a lot better than his collaboration with the far less familiar Josh Gad.
Oscar Prospects: None.

Home

Premise: From IMDb: “When Oh, a loveable misfit from another planet, lands on Earth and finds himself on the run from his own people, he forms an unlikely friendship with an adventurous girl named Tip who is on a quest of her own. Through a series of comic adventures with Tip, Oh comes to understand that being different and making mistakes is all part of being human. And while he changes her planet and she changes his world, they discover the true meaning of the word HOME.”
Box Office Prospects: $180 M
Expectations: Good. DreamWorks Animation may not have had a Shrek-sized hit in some time, but they have consistently $150 million-plus. While I could see this one fairing along the lines of Over the Hedge, which is on their lower end, I suspect the lack of available family films in the marketplace might give it a boost.
Oscar Prospects: Good. With no other entry in this year’s Best Animated Feature race, DreamWorks will put all of its efforts behind Home and will very likely secure a nomination for it. They are one of the four most consistent animation houses to get nominations (the others being Disney/Pixar, Laika and GKids).

Serena (Limited)

Premise: From IMDb: “In Depression-era North Carolina, the future of George Pemberton’s timber empire becomes complicated when he marries Serena.”
Box Office Prospects: $1 M
Expectations: Poor. The film was pushed back into 2014 from its swanky berth in Oscar season, which suggests it’s not very good. With a limited release to see if it will fly in expansion, I suspect it will be a huge dud and never make it out of the specialty houses.
Oscar Prospects: Non-Existent. You don’t shift out of the prime Oscar season if you are an actual competitor. You don’t then move into March and expect to be remembered.

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