We normally like to begin in May, but we missed our deadline by a couple days. Regardless, we’re now ready to put into place our very first predictions of 2016.

The year isn’t quite half over yet, but a number of strong films have emerged as contenders. This is reflected in our fairly strong unanimity in the Best Picture and Best Director races while the acting categories are all incredibly diverse. The key player this year seems to be The Birth of a Nation, writer/director Nate Parker’s Civil War saga. It and Jeff Nichols Loving have already been seen and both are earning plenty of buzz going into Oscar season.

For films that haven’t been seen yet, three titles seem like sure things at this juncture based purely on pedigree. Ang Lee’s long awaited wartime drama Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk, Martin Scorsese’s to-be-scheduled 17th Century drama about Jesuit priests: Silence, and Clint Eastwood’s Sully about the pilot who successfully saved the lives of all those aboard when his plane began crashing over the Hudson River. These five dramas earn universal support from our contributors.

There are plenty of others titles in play for the top races and any of those three latter films could end up ignored by the Academy, but our confidence in their chances is solid. As for the other titles. There’s an eclectic mix, some films seen, others not. There’s a lot of supposition here, so don’t take much of this without a grain of salt.

In the acting categories, our inability to isolate more than one or two performances in each category to champion as major players shows just how volatile these early prediction articles are. Nevertheless, we gave it our best show.

To start things off, we’re going to stick to the top six categories.

KEY:

Best Picture

• The BFG (WL O)
• Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• The Birth of a Nation (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• Fences (WL O) (TB O) (TL O)
• The Girl on the Train (PP O)
• La La Land (TL O)
• The Light Between Oceans (PP O) (TB O)
• Lion (TL O)
• Loving (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• Maggie’s Plan (PP O)
• Manchester By the Sea (WL O) (PP O) (TB O)
• Moonlight (TL O)
• Passengers (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• The Promise (WL O)
• Rules Don’t Apply (WL O) (TB O)
• Silence (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• Sully (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)

Best Director

• Damien Chazelle – La La Land (TL O)
• Derek Cianfrance – The Light Between Oceans (TB O)
• Clint Eastwood – Sully (WL O)
• Ang Lee – Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• Kenneth Lonergan – Manchester By the Sea (PP O)
• Jeff Nichols – Loving (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• Nate Parker – The Birth of a Nation (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• Martin Scorsese – Silence (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)

Best Actor

Best Actress

• Annette Bening – 20th Century Women (TL O)
• Emily Blunt – The Girl on the Train (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• Viola Davis – Fences (WL O) (TB O) (TL O)
• Greta Gerwig – Maggie’s Plan (PP O)
• Jennifer Lawrence – Passengers (PP O) (TB O)
• Laura Linney – Sully (WL O)
• Ruth Negga – Loving (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• Emma Stone – La La Land (WL O)
• Meryl Streep – Florence Foster Jenkins (PP O) (TB O)
• Alicia Vikander – The Light Between Oceans (WL O)(TL O)

Best Supporting Actor

• Christian Bale – The Promise (WL O)
• Warren Beatty – Rules Don’t Apply (WL O) (TB O)
• Marton Csokas – Loving (PP O)
• Adam Driver – Silence (PP O) (TB O)
• Armie Hammer – The Birth of a Nation (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• Lucas Hedges – Manchester By the Sea (PP O)
• Stephen Henderson – Fences (TB O)
• Oscar Isaac – The Promise (TL O)
• Steve Martin – Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (TL O)
• Ben Mendolsohn – Una (TL O)
• Liam Neeson – Silence (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• Michael Shannon – Loving (WL O)

Best Supporting Actress

• Jennifer Aniston – The Yellow Birds (TL O)
• Annette Bening – Rules Don’t Apply (WL O) (TB O)
• Laura Dern – The Founder (TL O)
• Aunjanue Ellis – The Birth of a Nation (WL O)
• Elle Fanning – 20th Century Women (WL O)
• Naomie Harris – Collateral Beauty (TL O)
• Aja Naomi King – The Birth of a Nation (PP O) (TB O)
• Jennifer Jason Leigh – LBJ (PP O)
• Rooney Mara – Lion (WL O)
• Kristen Stewart – Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (WL O) (PP O) (TB O)
• Rachel Weisz – The Light Between Oceans (PP O) (TB O)
• Michelle Williams – Manchester By the Sea (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• Kate Winslet – Collateral Beauty (TL O)