We had hoped to put together a list prior to the Telluride/Venice/Toronto festival lineup, but various factors got in the way and we missed our opportunity. Now that a number of the year’s potential Oscar contenders have been screened in at least one of these festivals, the year-end competition is beginning to take place.

When we last put our list together, we were all certain The Birth of a Nation would run away with several Oscar nominations. However, after recent revelations about director/writer/star Nate Parker’s past, those potential outcomes have become heavily weighed down by doubt. It was a route with Parker’s film being removed from nearly every prediction out there. It may be too early to know if that was wise, but right now, things aren’t looking good. Meanwhile, films like La La Land, Manchester by the Sea, Moonlight, Lion, and Jackie have existed the festivals with sizable buzz for one aspect of each film or another. Our predictions reflect these changes.

Star out by reading our individual commentaries on the race and then dig into our look at nine of the year’s top categories.

Introductions

Wesley Lovell: There is something off about this year’s predictions. We’re still missing a handful of possible contenders, and the festivals have largely confirmed a lot of what I was thinking. That’s alarming because I shouldn’t feel so confident about some contender as I do. Deep down, I’m not that certain, but I have a hard time pushing out the ones that I’ve put in in favor of those I haven’t. I’m going to be looking closely at films releasing over the next month or so to see if things continue to impress or changes are indeed necessary.
Peter J. Patrick: It’s late September and there is no favorite in any of the categories thus far. If the trend continues, this could become the most exciting Oscar race in recent memory.
Tripp Burton: No introduction provided.
Thomas LaTourrette: It is amazing how quickly films can sink or rise in our predictions. Three weeks ago, Nate Parker’s The Birth of a Nation seemed likely to be pulling up multiple nominations and probably even a number of wins. A 20 year old scandal about him has surfaced and not only does it seem to be affecting him but the rest of the movie as well. Currently, I doubt that he will pull off any of the noms he seemed likely to get, and I wonder if it will have trouble being released at this point. And then there is Jackie, which had rapturous reviews at Toronto. I don’t know that it even has a distributor yet, but I could see it easily pulling off nominations for Picture, Actress and screenplay. Amy Adams had two major films opening shortly, so she was already in competition with herself for a spot, but I wonder if Natalie Portman will end up taking her place instead. La La Land still sounds like it will rate in multiple categories. Billy Lynn, Fences and Silence have not even had premieres yet, but they definitely seem like major players, but then so did Unbroken at this time last year, so one never knows. It will be interesting to see what develops over the coming months.

KEY:

Best Picture

• Allied (WL T) [New]
• Arrival (PP T) [New] (TB T) [New]
• Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• The Birth of a Nation (WL O)
• Fences (WL O) (TL O)
• Hidden Figures (TL T) [New]
• Jackie (TB T) [New] (TL T) [New]
• La La Land (WL T) [New] (PP T) [New] (TB T) [New] (TL O)
• Lion (PP T) [New] (TB T) [New] (TL O)
• Live by Night (PP T) [New]
• Loving (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• Manchester By the Sea (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL T) [New]
• Moonlight (WL T) [New] (PP T) [New] (TB T) [New] (TL O)
• Nocturnal Animals (WL T) [New]
• Silence (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• Sully (PP O) (TB O)

Best Animated Feature

• April & the Extraordinary World (TB O) (TL O)
• Finding Dory (WL O) (PP O) (TB O)
• Kubo and the Two Strings (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• Moana (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• Phantom Boy (PP O)
• The Red Turtle (TL O)
• Sing (WL O)
• Zootopia (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)

Best Director

• Damien Chazelle – La La Land (WL T) [New] (PP T) [New] (TB T) [New] (TL O)
• Barry Jenkins – Moonlight (WL T) [New] (TB T) [New]
• Ang Lee – Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• Kenneth Lonergan – Manchester By the Sea (WL T) [New] (PP O)
• Jeff Nichols – Loving (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• Martin Scorsese – Silence (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• Denzel Washington – Fences (TL T) [New]

Best Actor

• Casey Affleck – Manchester By the Sea (WL T) [New] (PP O) (TB O) (TL T) [New]
• Ben Affleck – The Accountant (WL O)
• Mahershala Ali – Moonlight (TB T) [New]
• Joe Alwyn – Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PP O) (TB O)
• Joel Edgerton – Loving (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• Andrew Garfield – Silence (PP T) [New] (TL O)
• Ryan Gosling – La La Land (WL T) [New] (TB T) [New] (TL T) [New]
• Jake Gyllenhaal – Nocturnal Animals (WL T) [New]
• Tom Hanks – Sully (PP O)
• Denzel Washington – Fences (WL O) (TL O)

Best Actress

• Amy Adams – Arrival (PP T) [New] (TB T) [New]
• Amy Adams – Nocturnal Animals (WL T) [New]
• Annette Bening – 20th Century Women (TL O)
• Jessica Chastain – Miss Sloane (TB T) [New]
• Viola Davis – Fences (WL O) (PP T) [New] (TB O) (TL O)
• Ruth Negga – Loving (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• Natalie Portman – Jackie (WL T) [New] (PP T) [New] (TB T) [New] (TL T) [New]
• Emma Stone – La La Land (WL O) (PP T) [New] (TL T) [New]

Best Supporting Actor

• Mahershali Ali – Moonlight (PP T) [New] (TL T) [New]
• Christian Bale – The Promise (WL O)
• Warren Beatty – Rules Don’t Apply (TB O)
• Jeff Bridges – Hell or High Water (PP T) [New] (TL T) [New]
• Adam Driver – Silence (TB O)
• Ben Foster – Hell or High Water (PP T) [New]
• Hugh Grant – Florence Foster Jenkins (TB T) [New]
• Lucas Hedges – Manchester By the Sea (PP O) (TL T) [New]
• Tracy Letts – Indignation (TB T) [New]
• Steve Martin – Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (TL O)
• Liam Neeson – Silence (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• Michael Shannon – Nocturnal Animals (WL T) [New]
• Timothy Spall – Denial (WL T) [New]
• Aaron Taylor-Johnson – Nocturnal Animals (WL T) [New]

Best Supporting Actress

• Annette Bening – Rules Don’t Apply (WL O)
• Naomie Harris – Moonlight (WL T) [New] (PP T) [New] (TB T) [New] (TL T) [New]
• Felicity Jones – A Monster Calls (PP T) [New]
• Nicole Kidman – Lion (TB T) [New] (TL T) [New]
• Aja Naomi King – The Birth of a Nation (TB O)
• Laura Linney – Nocturnal Animals (WL T) [New]
• Molly Shannon – Other People (PP T) [New]
• Octavia Spencer – Hidden Figures (WL T) [New] (TL T) [New]
• Kristen Stewart – Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (WL O) (TB O) (TL T) [New]
• Rachel Weisz – The Light Between Oceans (PP O)
• Michelle Williams – Manchester By the Sea (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)

Best Original Screenplay

• The Founder (PP O)
• Hell or High Water (WL O) (PP O)
• Jackie (TL O)
• La La Land (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• The Lobster (TB O)
• Loving (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• Manchester by the Sea (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• Moonlight (TB O) (TL O)
• The Promise (WL O)

Best Adapted Screenplay

• Arrival (PP O) (TB O)
• Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• Fences (WL O) (TB O) (TL O)
• Lion (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• Moonlight (WL O) (PP O)
• Nocturnal Animals (WL O) (TL O)
• Silence (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)