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Here we look at the upcoming month’s offerings.

October 7, 2016

The Birth of a Nation


Premise: From IMDb: “Nat Turner, a literate slave and preacher in the antebellum South, orchestrates an uprising.”
Box Office Prospects: $25 M
Expectations: Weak. Sometimes controversies help films, but whether this one will or not remains to be seen. The film might perform better later in the season with Oscar buzz behind it.
Oscar Prospects: Uncertain. After its premiere at Sundance earlier this year, the film became an instant lock for Best Picture and several other categories, mostly on the heels of the OscarSoWhite controversy. However, anticipation of the film has cooled dramatically after it was revealed that writer/director/star Nate Parker had successfully eluded sexual assault charges several years ago. That kind of controversy isn’t what the Academy likes to bring to the table. Response was muted at its later festival outings, so it’s possible the film fades into obscurity by Oscar time. It’s also possible that it surges again late in the year, but Parker may find himself ignored everywhere even if the film does manage a few nominations.
Cinema Sight Preview: See my preview of this title here.

Friend Request


Premise: From IMDb: “When a college student unfriends a mysterious girl online, she finds herself fighting a demonic presence that wants to make her lonely by killing her closest friends.”
Box Office Prospects: $15 M
Expectations: Weak. Postponed a few times and entering a busy and tough Halloween marketplace, this latest teen-targeted horror flick doesn’t seem to have enough broad interest to sustain solid box office returns.
Oscar Prospects: None.
Cinema Sight Preview: See my preview of this title here.

The Girl on the Train


Premise: From IMDb: “The Girl on the Train is the story of Rachel Watson’s life post-divorce. Every day, she takes the train in to work in New York, and every day the train passes by her old house. The house she lived in with her husband, who still lives there, with his new wife and child. As she attempts to not focus on her pain, she starts watching a couple who live a few houses down — Megan and Scott Hipwell. She creates a wonderful dream life for them in her head, about how they are a perfect happy family. And then one day, as the train passes, she sees something shocking, filling her with rage. The next day, she wakes up with a horrible hangover, various wounds and bruises, and no memory of the night before. She has only a feeling: something bad happened. Then come the TV reports: Megan Hipwell is missing. Rachel becomes invested in the case and trying to find out what happened to Megan, where she is, and what exactly she herself was up to that same night Megan went missing.”
Box Office Prospects: $65 M
Expectations: Uncertain. Female-led thrillers have done well in recent years, but not so well as to be guaranteed box office hits. This one has the benefit of a best-selling novel to bolster its potential.
Oscar Prospects: Uncertain. Emily Blunt has been flirting with Oscar for years and this could be her opportunity. Little has been seen or heard of the film, which may not bode well for its Oscar chances. It will either follow a path similar to Gone Girl, or it will be utterly ignored.
Cinema Sight Preview: See my preview of this title here.

Middle School: The Worst Years of My Life


Premise: From IMDb: “A quiet teenage artist Rafe Katchadorian has a wild imagination and is sick of middle school and the rules that have been put before him. Rafe and his best friend Leo have come up with a plan: break every rule in the school hand book and as you expect trouble follows.”
Box Office Prospects: $60 M
Expectations: Decent. Considering the fates of recent tween-targeted book adaptations like Alexander the the Terribleโ€ฆBad Day and Diary of a Wimpy Kid, it seems the cap is in the mid $60 million range. This one should approach that even if it doesn’t quite make it.
Oscar Prospects: None.
Cinema Sight Preview: See my preview of this title here.

October 14, 2016

The Accountant


Premise: From IMDb: “A forensic accountant un-cooks the books for illicit clients.”
Box Office Prospects: $45 M
Expectations: Uncertain. The closest parallel I can draw to this film is George Clooney’s The American, an artistic hitman film that didn’t perform nearly as well as it should have. This time, it’s Ben Affleck in the lead role. The box office has a dearth of these types of films, so it’s likely it might perform a bit better than expectations.
Oscar Prospects: Uncertain. The film hasn’t played the festivals, so early word isn’t available; however, if it’s good enough, it could give Affleck a shot at an Oscar nomination. I suspect, though, that the film might be a miss, which means like Clooney, one of his better performances might go ignored.
Cinema Sight Preview: See my preview of this title here.

Kevin Hart: What Now?


Premise: From IMDb: “Comedian Kevin Hart performs in front of a crowd of 50,000 people at Philadelphia’s outdoor venue, Lincoln Financial Field.”
Box Office Prospects: $35 M
Expectations: Decent. Kevin Hart’s first stand-up concert barely made more than $7 million. His second after a string of box office hits made $32 million. It’s possible his latest will out perform both. By how much, I’m not certain.
Oscar Prospects: None.
Cinema Sight Preview: No preview available.

Max Steel


Premise: From IMDb: “The adventures of teenager Max McGrath and alien companion Steel, who must harness and combine their tremendous new powers to evolve into the turbo-charged superhero Max Steel.”
Box Office Prospects: $30 M
Expectations: Uncertain. There aren’t a lot of examples of teen-targeted superhero films out there, so it’s hard to get an inkling of what the market will be like. Considering the competition, it could be a break out hit or it could be completely ignored.
Oscar Prospects: None.
Cinema Sight Preview: See my preview of this title here.

Certain Women (Limited)


Premise: From IMDb: “The lives of three women intersect in small-town America, where each is imperfectly blazing a trail.”
Box Office Prospects: $5 M
Expectations: Poor. Kelly Reichardt has yet to have a box office hit. This film could change that, but it’s just as likely it will be ignored even with the cast involved.
Oscar Prospects: Uncertain. Although Reichardt’s box office fortunes haven’t always been good, she’s been in the Oscar conversation a couple of times. The problem is that the closest she came, with a celebrated performance by Michelle Williams, was 8 years ago with Wendy & Lucy. Still, this cast is strong, which could change the conversation if the critics rally behind it.
Cinema Sight Preview: See my preview of this title here.

October 21, 2016

Boo! A Madea Halloween


Premise: From IMDb: “Madea winds up in the middle of mayhem when she spends a haunted Halloween fending off killers, paranormal poltergeists, ghosts, ghouls and zombies while keeping a watchful eye on a group of misbehaving teens.”
Box Office Prospects: $60 M
Expectations: Uncertain. Tyler Perry’s fortunes have diminished in recent years and even his vaunted Madea character hasn’t done well. However, this Halloween-themed comedy could be the remedy for horror fatigue this year.
Oscar Prospects: None.
Cinema Sight Preview: See my preview of this title here.

Jack Reacher: Never Go Back


Premise: From IMDb: “Jack Reacher must uncover the truth behind a major government conspiracy in order to clear his name. On the run as a fugitive from the law, Reacher uncovers a potential secret from his past that could change his life forever.”
Box Office Prospects: $75 M
Expectations: Solid. Tom Cruise’s first outing as the Jack Reacher character was a decent box office hit, raking in $80 million. They saw enough potential to greenlight a second film, but can lightning strike twice? I’m not certain. There aren’t a lot of strong box office performers in the line-up, so it could take advantage of that lack of competition and perform quite well, possibly even better than the original.
Oscar Prospects: None.
Cinema Sight Preview: See my preview of this title here.

Keeping Up with the Joneses


Premise: From IMDb: “A suburban couple becomes embroiled in an international espionage plot when they discover that their seemingly perfect new neighbors are government spies.”
Box Office Prospects: $55 M
Expectations: Uncertain. R-rated comedies have done uneven business this year so far, but this one looks fresh enough that it could do well. However, it’s opening against strong competition, which might hinder its progress.
Oscar Prospects: None.
Cinema Sight Preview: See my preview of this title here.

Ouija: Origin of Evil


Premise: From IMDb: “In 1967 Los Angeles, a widowed mother and her two daughters add a new stunt to bolster their seance scam business and unwittingly invite authentic evil into their home. When the youngest daughter is overtaken by a merciless spirit, the family confronts unthinkable fears to save her and send her possessor back to the other side.”
Box Office Prospects: $60 M
Expectations: Decent. 2014’s Ouija was a solid performer and didn’t have the advantage of a period setting. That factor has helped a number of horror flicks perform incredibly well at the box office. Opening so close to Halloween will almost certainly help.
Oscar Prospects: None.
Cinema Sight Preview: See my preview of this title here.

American Pastoral (Limited)


Premise: From IMDb: “Set in postwar America, a man watches his seemingly perfect life fall apart as his daughter’s new political affiliation threatens to destroy their family.”
Box Office Prospects: $5 M
Expectations: Weak. I’d be surprised if this performs well even in the specialty box office. It just doesn’t seem like the “surprise hit” one would hope.
Oscar Prospects: Uncertain. Although the concept might pique some Oscar voters’ minds, I doubt the film will cross-over to become enough of a hit with audiences and critics to make much headway in the race.
Cinema Sight Preview: See my preview of this title here.

Moonlight (Limited)


Premise: From IMDb: “A three-part narrative spanning the childhood, adolescence, and adulthood of an African-American man who survives Miami’s drug-plagued inner city, finding love in unexpected places and the possibility of change within himself.”
Box Office Prospects: $20 M
Expectations: Good. Bolstered by a strong Oscar campaign, this film could have a lot of legs appealing to multiple demographics inside and outside the niche specialty box office circuit.
Oscar Prospects: Strong. It’s festival run has yielded rave reviews, so it could be a major player at the Oscars this year.
Cinema Sight Preview: See my preview of this title here.

October 28, 2016

Inferno


Premise: From IMDb: “When Robert Langdon wakes up in an Italian hospital with amnesia, he teams up with Dr. Sienna Brooks, and together they must race across Europe against the clock to foil a deadly global plot.”
Box Office Prospects: $150 M
Expectations: Good. The first adaptation of Dan Brown’s novel The Da Vinci Code was a huge box office hit in 2006, taking in more than $217 million at the box office. Three years later, the first sequel Angels & Demons did well, but not comparably, pulling in only $133 million. Ron Howard and Tom Hanks are back again 7 years later hoping for big box office numbers. The problem is that films releasing so long after their predecessors have struggled mightily to attain the successes of their predecessors. This could be another prime example or the exception, it’s hard to know for sure which it will be.
Oscar Prospects: None.
Cinema Sight Preview: See my preview of this title here.

Rings


Premise: From IMDb: “Samara returns with a familiar video tape to strike terror again in the third film of the Ring series, Rings.”
Box Office Prospects: $60 M
Expectations: Uncertain. Like The Da Vinci Code and its sequels, the Ring franchise may struggle to make bank. The first film earned an impressive $129 million, but the sequel lost almost half its numbers to finish with $76 million. The first film was 2002, the second was 2005. We’re now eleven years removed and that may be too much. However, it’s opening right before Halloween, so its opening weekend numbers will be much higher than they might have otherwise been, but the subsequent weekend plummet will be huge.
Oscar Prospects: None.
Cinema Sight Preview: See my preview of this title here.

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