As is our tradition, May begins our first predictive look at the year’s Oscar hopefuls. A lot of factors will play into how well our guesses hold up. Expect many of them to fall by the wayside as the year progresses and new contenders to rise into their places.

Oscar season ramps up at the end of this month and the beginning of September with the triple threat of Venice, Telluride, and Toronto film festivals. This will be our last update fully prior to these festivals. Venice (Aug. 30-Sep. 9) and Telluride (Sep. 1-4) will have opened and Toronto (Sep. 7-17) will follow our next update. As such, we’re going to push our September update to the second Wednesday of the month rather than the first.

Looking over our new predictions, some previously unknown titles have emerged (such as Woody Allen’s Wonder Wheel) and others have finally opened (Dunkirk and Detroit). We are still a long way off, but some categories have begun to coalesce around certain titles. For this month’s update, we’ve added Animated Feature and Visual Effects categories.

KEY:

Introductions

Wesley Lovell: I’m still not sold on the prospects of certain films like Mudbound; I’ve begun to question other selections, such as Downsizing and Victoria and Abdul; and there are other titles I’m waiting to see more about like Wonderstruck and Darkest Hour. These are my picks currently.
Peter J. Patrick: Things won’t really take shape until after the Toronto Film Festival in September, but certain things are falling into focus. The Papers makes my predictions for the first time in four major categories and Downsizing gets a nod from me in Original Screenplay. The rest of my predictions are pretty much as they were last month except for the addition of the Visual Effects and Animated Feature predictions.
Tripp Burton: Not much has changed here, except Dunkirk is looking stronger than I imagined and Detroit seems to be losing steam upon arrival.
Thomas LaTourette: I have done some tweaking of the past two months’ lists, pretty much a change in each category, but nothing major. With the fall festivals starting to announce their lineups, things will come into clarity. Both Dunkirk and Detroit sound like they could compete majorly, but summer movies often do not do well at the Oscars. We will have to wait and see.

Best Picture

• Breathe (PP O)
• Call Me By Your Name (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• The Current War (WL O)
• Darkest Hour (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL J)
• Detroit (WL O) (TL O)
• Downsizing (WL O) (TB O) (TL L)
• Dunkirk (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• The Glass Castle (TB O)
• The Greatest Showman (PP O) (TL J)
• Last Flag Flying (TL A) [New]
• Mudbound (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• The Papers (WL O) (PP A) [New] (TB L) (TL O)
• Phantom Thread (WL O) (PP L) (TB O) (TL O)
• Suburbicon (WL O) (TB O)
• Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PP O)
• Victoria and Abdul (PP L)
• Wonder (TB A) [New]
• Wonderstruck (WL A) [New]

Best Animated Feature

• The Breadwinner (WL O) [New] (PP O) [New] (TB O) [New] (TL O) [New]
• Cars 3 (WL O) [New]
• Coco (WL O) [New] (PP O) [New] (TB O) [New] (TL O) [New]
• Despicable Me 3 (WL O) [New] (TL O) [New]
• Ferdinand (PP O) [New]
• The Girl Without Hands (TB O) [New]
• The Lego Batman Movie (WL O) [New] (PP O) [New] (TB O) [New]
• The Lego Ninjago Movie (PP O) [New] (TL O) [New]
• Loving Vincent (TL O) [New]
• My Entire High School Sinking Into the Sea (TB O) [New]

Best Director

• Call Me By Your Name – Lucas Guadagnino (WL O) (PP O) (TL L)
• Darkest Hour – Joe Wright (PP O) (TB O) (TL J)
• Detroit – Kathryn Bigelow (TL O)
• Downsizing – Alexander Payne (WL O) (TB O)
• Dunkirk – Christopher Nolan (WL O) (PP O) (TB A) [New] (TL O)
• The Papers – Steven Spielberg (WL O) (PP A) [New] (TB L) (TL O)
• Phantom Thread – Paul Thomas Anderson (PP L) (TB O)
• Wonderstruck – Todd Haynes (WL A) [New]

Best Actor

• Chadwick Boseman – Marshall (TB O)
• Timothee Chalamet – Call Me By Your Name (PP O)
• Matt Damon – Downsizing (TB O)
• Matt Damon – Suburbicon (WL A) [New]
• Daniel Day-Lewis – Phantom Thread (WL O) (PP L) (TB O) (TL O)
• Michael Fassbender – The Snowman (TB O)
• Andrew Garfield – Breathe (PP O) (TL A) [New]
• Tom Hanks – The Papers (WL O) (TL O)
• Hugh Jackman – The Greatest Showman (WL O) (PP O) (TL O)
• Gary Oldman – Darkest Hour (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)

Best Actress

• Annette Bening – Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool (PP A) [New]
• Jessica Chastain – Molly’s Game (TL O)
• Glenn Close – The Wife (WL L)
• Judi Dench – Victoria and Abdul (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• Claire Foy – Breathe (TL L)
• Brie Larson – The Glass Castle (TB O)
• Frances McDormand – Three Billboards Outiide Ebbing, Missouri (WL O) (PP O) (TL J)
• Emma Stone – Battle of the Sexes (WL O)
• Meryl Streep – The Papers (WL O) (PP A) [New] (TB L) (TL O)
• Emma Thompson – The Children Act (TB O)
• Kate Winslet – Wonder Wheel (WL A) [New] (PP J) (TB A) [New]

Best Supporting Actor

• Alec Baldwin – Downsizing (WL O)
• Javier Bardem – Mother! (WL O)
• Sterling K. Brown – Marshall (WL O)
• Steve Buscemi – Lean on Pete (PP J)
• Armie Hammer – Call Me By Your Name (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL A) [New]
• Woody Harrelson – The Glass Castle (TB O) (TL O)
• John Hurt – Darkest Hour (WL O) (TB O)
• Ben Mendelsohn – Darkest Hour (PP L)
• Jason Mitchell – Mudbound (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• Mark Rylance – Dunkirk (TB A) [New]
• Michael Shannon – The Current War (TL O)
• Michael Stuhlbarg – Call Me By Your Name (PP O) (TL O)

Best Supporting Actress

• Mary J. Blige – Mudbound (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• Carrie Coon – The Papers (TB L)
• Laura Dern – Downsizing (WL O)
• Claire Foy – Breathe (PP A) [New]
• Melissa Leo – The Novitiate (TL L)
• Julianne Moore – Wonderstruck (WL O) (TB O)
• Michelle Pfeiffer – Mother! (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL L)
• Kristin Scott Thomas – Darkest Hour (PP L) (TL O)
• Naomi Watts – The Glass Castle (WL J) (TB O)
• Michelle Williams – The Greatest Showman (WL O) (PP O) (TL O)

Best Original Screenplay

• The Big Sick (WL A) [New] (TB A) [New]
• Breathe (PP O)
• Darkest Hour (PP O) (TL O)
• Detroit (TL O)
• Downsizing (WL O) (PP A) [New] (TB O)
• Get Out (WL O) (TL O)
• The Greatest Showman
• The Papers (WL O) (PP A) [New] (TB O) (TL O)
• Phantom Thread (TB O)
• Suburbicon (TB O)
• Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (WL O) (PP O) (TL O)

Best Adapted Screenplay

• The Beguiled (WL O) (TB O) (TL O)
• Call Me By Your Name (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• The Glass Castle (WL O) (TB O)
• Last Flag Flying (PP O)
• Lean on Pete (PP O) (TL O)
• Molly’s Game (TL O)
• Mudbound (WL O) (PP A) [New] (TB O) (TL O)
• The Snowman (WL O)
• Victoria and Abdul (PP O)
• Wonderstruck (TB O)

Best Visual Effects

• Blade Runner 2049 (WL O) [New] (PP O) [New] (TB O) [New] (TL O) [New]
• Dunkirk (WL O) [New] (PP O) [New] (TB O) [New]
• Guardians of the Galaxy, Vol. 2 (WL O) [New] (TL O) [New]
• Spider-Man: Homecoming (PP O) [New]
• Star Wars: The Last Jedi (WL O) [New] (PP O) [New] (TB O) [New] (TL O) [New]
• Thor: Ragnarok (TB O) [New]
• Transformers: The Last Knight (TL O) [New]
• War for the Planet of the Apes (WL O) [New] (PP O) [New] (TB O) [New] (TL O) [New]