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As is our tradition, May begins our first predictive look at the year’s Oscar hopefuls. A lot of factors will play into how well our guesses hold up. Expect many of them to fall by the wayside as the year progresses and new contenders to rise into their places.

Precursor season has now begun and a brighter picture of the Oscar landscape will now become visible. Few have announced so far, so these predictions largely benefit from a lack of exposure, but our predictions in January, our final ones, will reflect more precisely where we think the Oscar race will be. Now, let’s look at the continually in-flux predictions our contributors have put forward. Some films have had support solidify behind them while others have faded into obscurity. Here are our predictions.


KEY:

Appears on Four Lists
Appears on Three Lists
Appears on Two Lists

Wesley Lovell Peter Patrick Tripp Burton Thomas LaTourrette
[New] = New Prediction
[Return] = Prior Prediction Returning
(O) = Original Predictions
(J) = June Predictions
(L) = July Predictions
(A) = August Predictions
(F) = Post-Festival (September) Predictions
(Oc) = October Predictions
(N) = November Predictions
(D) = December Predictions

Introductions

Wesley Lovell: The first precursors did somewhat influence my selections, allowing me to move past a few blind spots I had as well as question some old assertions. I still have a couple of nominees on this list that I’m not sold on, so there’s still room to adjust, but things are looking more solid now.
Peter J. Patrick: The critics are giving out their awards, the Golden Globe nominations are almost upon us. Things are getting serious.
Tripp Burton: (no commentary provided)
Thomas LaTourette: It is strange that at this late date, few frontrunners have emerged in any category. With the changes in the Academy membership, it may be even harder to predict how they will vote now. The Post, Phantom Thread, and The Greatest Showman remain mysteries and it is difficult to guess not knowing how they will be received. I added The Post to a number of categories, as I feel the tale of a paper standing up to the government may resonate in the present political climate. Sadly, I removed Hugh Jackman and Ben Mendelsohn from my list as they seem to be losing traction, though I had gamely kept them on until this set. Many categories still feel fluid, so will see what we learn in the upcoming month and if they start to settle into neat groupings of fives.

Best Picture

  • Call Me By Your Name (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
  • Darkest Hour (WL O) (PP O) (TL J)
  • Downsizing (TB O)
  • Dunkirk (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
  • The Florida Project (PP F) (TB D) [New]
  • Get Out (WL F) (PP N) (TB Oc) (TL Oc)
  • The Greatest Showman (WL F)
  • I, Tonya (TL D) [New]
  • Lady Bird (WL D) [New] (PP Oc) (TB N) (TL N)
  • Mudbound (TL O)
  • Phantom Thread (WL O) (PP L)
  • The Post (WL O) (PP A) (TB L) (TL O)
  • The Shape of Water (WL F) (PP F) (TB F) (TL F)
  • Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (WL D) [New] (PP Oc) (TB N) (TL Oc)
  • Wonder (TB A)

Best Animated Feature

  • The Breadwinner (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
  • Cars 3 (WL O)
  • Coco (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
  • Despicable Me 3 (WL O)
  • Ferdinand (TL F)
  • The Girl Without Hands (PP D) [New] (TB O)
  • The Lego Batman Movie (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL Oc)
  • Loving Vincent (PP D) [New] (TL O)
  • My Entire High School Sinking Into the Sea (TB O)

Best Director

  • Call Me By Your Name – Luca Guadagnino (WL O) (PP O) (TL L)
  • Dunkirk – Christopher Nolan (WL O) (PP O) (TB A) (TL O)
  • Get Out – Jordan Peele (TB D) [New]
  • Lady Bird – Greta Gerwig (PP D) [New] (TB D) [New]
  • Phantom Thread – Paul Thomas Anderson (WL N)
  • The Post – Steven Spielberg (WL O) (TB L) (TL D) [New]
  • The Shape of Water – Guillermo Del Toro (WL F) (PP F) (TB F) (TL F)
  • Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri – Martin McDonagh (PP Oc) (TL N)

Best Actor

  • Timothee Chalamet – Call Me By Your Name (WL D) [New] (PP O) (TB F) (TL N)
  • Daniel Day-Lewis – Phantom Thread (WL O) (PP L) (TB O) (TL O)
  • Andrew Garfield – Breathe (PP D)
  • Jake Gyllenhaal – Stronger (PP N) (TL Oc)
  • Tom Hanks – The Post (WL D) (TB N) (TL D) [New]
  • Hugh Jackman – The Greatest Showman (WL O) (TB N)
  • Gary Oldman – Darkest Hour (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)

Best Actress

  • Judi Dench – Victoria and Abdul (PP O)
  • Sally Hawkins – The Shape of Water (WL F) (PP F) (TB F) (TL F)
  • Frances McDormand – Three Billboards Outiide Ebbing, Missouri (WL O) (PP O) (TB Oc) (TL J)
  • Margot Robbie – I, Tonya (WL N) (TB Oc) (TL N)
  • Saoirse Ronan – Lady Bird (WL N) (PP Oc) (TB N) (TL N)
  • Meryl Streep – The Post (WL O) (PP D) [New] (TB L) (TL O)

Best Supporting Actor

  • Sterling K. Brown – Marshall (WL O)
  • Willem Dafoe – The Florida Project (WL Oc) (PP F) (TB Oc) (TL F)
  • Armie Hammer – Call Me By Your Name (WL O) (PP Oc) (TL A)
  • Richard Jenkins – The Shape of Water (TB N) (TL D) [New]
  • Ben Mendelsohn – Darkest Hour (TB D) [New]
  • Christopher Plummer – All the Money in the World (PP D) [New]
  • Sam Rockwell – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (WL F) (PP F) (TB F) (TL F)
  • Michael Shannon – The Shape of Water (WL F)
  • Michael Stuhlbarg – Call Me By Your Name (PP O) (TB D) [New] (TL O)

Best Supporting Actress

  • Tiffany Haddish – Girls Trip (WL D) [New]
  • Holly Hunter – The Big Sick (WL D) [New] (TB D) [New] (TL D) [New]
  • Allison Janney – I, Tonya (WL Oc) (PP Oc) (TB F) (TL Oc)
  • Melissa Leo – The Novitiate (WL F) (PP F) (TL L)
  • Lesley Manville – Phantom Thread (PP D) [New]
  • Laurie Metcalf – Lady Bird (WL F) (PP F) (TB Oc) (TL Oc)
  • Lois Smith – Marjorie Prime (PP Oc)
  • Octavia Spencer – The Shape of Water (TB Oc) (TL N)

Best Original Screenplay

  • The Big Sick (TL D) [New]
  • Darkest Hour (PP O)
  • Downsizing (TB O)
  • Get Out (WL O) (PP F) (TB Oc) (TL O)
  • The Greatest Showman
  • Lady Bird (WL N) (PP N) (TB D) [New] (TL N)
  • The Post (WL O) (TB D) [New]
  • The Shape of Water (WL F) (PP F) (TL F)
  • Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (WL D) [New] (PP O) (TB N) (TL O)

Best Adapted Screenplay

  • Blade Runner 2049 (WL N)
  • Call Me By Your Name (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
  • The Disaster Artist (TB D) [New] (TL D) [New]
  • Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool (PP F)
  • Last Flag Flying (PP O)
  • Molly’s Game (WL F) (PP N) (TB F) (TL O)
  • Mudbound (WL O) (PP A) (TB O) (TL O)
  • Wonder (WL D) [New] (TB N)
  • Wonderstruck (TL F)

Best Original Score

  • Blade Runner 2049 (WL O) (PP O)
  • Darkest Hour (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
  • Dunkirk (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
  • The Greatest Showman (WL O) (PP O)
  • The Post (TB D) [New] (TL D) [New]
  • The Shape of Water (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL D) [New]
  • Star Wars: The Last Jedi (TB O) (TL O)

Best Film Editing

  • Blade Runner 2049 (WL O)
  • Call Me By Your Name (WL O)
  • Darkest Hour (PP O) (TL O)
  • Dunkirk (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
  • Get Out (TB D) [New]
  • The Greatest Showman (PP O)
  • Lady Bird (TB D) [New]
  • The Post (WL O) (TB O) (TL D) [New]
  • The Shape of Water (WL N) (PP O) (TB O) (TL N)
  • Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PP N) (TL D) [New]

Best Cinematography

  • Blade Runner 2049 (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
  • Call Me By Your Name (PP Oc) (TB Oc)
  • Darkest Hour (WL O) (PP O) (TL O)
  • Dunkirk (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
  • The Greatest Showman (WL Oc)
  • Mudbound (TB D) [New]
  • The Shape of Water (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
  • Wonderstruck (WL O) (TL D) [New]

Best Production Design

  • Beauty and the Beast (WL O) (PP D) [New] (TL D) [New]
  • Blade Runner 2049 (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
  • Darkest Hour (TB O) (TL O)
  • Dunkirk (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
  • The Greatest Showman (WL O) (PP O)
  • Phantom Thread
  • The Shape of Water (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
  • Star Wars: The Last Jedi (TB O)
  • Wonderstruck (WL O)

Best Costume Design

  • Beauty and the Beast (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
  • Darkest Hour (PP O) (TL O)
  • The Greatest Showman (WL O) (PP N) (TB O)
  • Murder on the Orient Express (TB O)
  • Phantom Thread (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
  • The Shape of Water (WL O) (TL D) [New]
  • Victoria and Abdul (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

  • Beauty and the Beast (PP O)
  • Darkest Hour (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
  • The Greatest Showman (PP O)
  • I, Tonya (TL O)
  • The Shape of Water (WL D) [New] (TB O) (TL O)
  • Wonder (WL O) (TB O)

Best Visual Effects

  • Blade Runner 2049 (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
  • Dunkirk (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL N)
  • The Shape of Water (WL F) (TB Oc) (TL F)
  • Spider-Man: Homecoming (PP O)
  • Star Wars: The Last Jedi (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
  • War for the Planet of the Apes (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)

Best Foreign Language Film

  • BPM (Beats Per Minute) (WL O) [New] (PP O) [New] (TB O) [New] (TL O) [New]
  • A Fantastic Woman (WL O) [New] (TL O) [New]
  • First They Killed My Father (WL O) [New] (PP O) [New]
  • Foxtrot (PP O) [New] (TB O) [New] (TL O) [New]
  • In the Fade (PP O) [New] (TL O) [New]
  • The Insult (TB O) [New]
  • Loveless (WL O) [New] (TB O) [New]
  • The Square (WL O) [New] (TB O) [New] (TL O) [New]
  • Tom of Finland (PP O) [New]

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