Posted

in

,

by

Tags:


As is our tradition, May begins our first predictive look at the year’s Oscar hopefuls. A lot of factors will play into how well our guesses hold up. Expect many of them to fall by the wayside as the year progresses and new contenders to rise into their places.

Our plan is to update our predictions monthly through November, adding one or two categories each month as we go along. We start things off with the absolute basics of categories: Best Picture, Best Director, and the four acting categories. Looking over our initial submissions, we have a lot of agreement and a lot of disagreement. One of the major contenders has already been seen and makes a strong showing on our list: Call Me By Your Name. It and Dunkirk in Best Picture are two of only five films that have the prediction of all four contributors. The others are Gary Oldman in Best Actor, Judi Dench in Best Actress, and Julianne Moore and Michelle Pfeiffer in Best Supporting Actress.

While having unanimous agreement is a rarity at this stage in the game, some factors arise that alter the landscape. In May of last year, we agreed on 13 different nominations. Among those, films like The Birth of a Nation, Billy Lynn’s Longhalftime Walk, Silence, Loving, and Sully all collapsed in terms of their potential nominations. Of those thirteen, only one, Ruth Negga, ended up making it all the way through the year. That doesn’t mean some of the other agreements that weren’t unanimous didn’t survive to the end, but it’s telling that some factors often impede our predictions. So, as always, take these with a grain of salt and expect it to change wildly over the next several months.


KEY:

Appears on Four Lists
Appears on Three Lists
Appears on Two Lists

Wesley Lovell Peter Patrick Tripp Burton Thomas LaTourrette
[New] = New Prediction
[Return] = Prior Prediction Returning
(O) = Original Prediction

Introductions

Wesley Lovell: Compared to last year, 2017 has a wide array of potential contenders that aren’t likely to fade as quickly as 2016’s. With new work from Oscar favorites like Joe Wright, Paul Thomas Anderson, Alexander Payne, and Steven Spielberg, it has already become a tough task to predict the Oscars this early. While the raves for Call Me By Your Name pretty much cement its status as a major Oscar player, others aren’t likely to have the same rallying element this early. Of course, considering how often Anderson and Payne are nominated, I would be shocked if neither of them were contenders. The same can be said of Wright and Spielberg, though they have a more uneven track record.
Peter J. Patrick: Early predictions are always a crapshoot. I tried to balance this with a mix of major anticipated films and interesting sounding little films that can turn out to be hit or miss. I tried to stay clear of films that people are expecting to be automatic Oscar contenders simply because of the casts and/or directors attached even if the subject matter doesnโ€™t seem that compelling. They could be right, I could be right, or we could all be completely wrong. Only time will tell.
Tripp Burton: Making predictions this early is always something of a guessing game. This is a combination of Oscar favorites and some interesting looking projects that could push through. I’ve also tried to stay with things that already have release dates announced and that are done filming. If 25% of these come through I will be proud!
Thomas LaTourette: At this point, it is mostly just guessing, not really predicting, but it is still fun to do. Dunkirk is the only one I have seen previews for, but have heard good things about it. Alexander Payne, Kathryn Bigelow, and Paul Thomas Anderson have films coming out. I have not been that fond of Andersonโ€™s work, but perhaps this will be better than others. Steven Spielbergโ€™s The Post I know nothing about at this point, but he is never to be ruled out where the Oscars are concerned. Doubtless many of these will fall by the wayside with time, but we will see what happens.

Best Picture

  • Breathe (PP O) [New]
  • Call Me By Your Name (WL O) [New] (PP O) [New] (TB O) [New] (TL O) [New]
  • The Current War (WL O) [New] (PP O) [New]
  • Darkest Hour (WL O) [New] (PP O) [New] (TB O) [New]
  • Detroit (WL O) [New] (TB O) [New] (TL O) [New]
  • Downsizing (WL O) [New] (TB O) [New] (TL O) [New]
  • Dunkirk (WL O) [New] (PP O) [New] (TB O) [New] (TL O) [New]
  • Get Out (WL O) [New]
  • The Glass Castle (TB O) [New]
  • The Greatest Showman (PP O) [New]
  • Mother! (TB O) [New] (TL O) [New]
  • Mudbound (PP O) [New] (TB O) [New] (TL O) [New]
  • The Post (WL O) [New] (TL O) [New]
  • Suburbicon (WL O) [New] (TB O) [New] (TL O) [New]
  • Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PP O) [New]
  • Untitled Paul Thomas Anderson Film (WL O) [New] (TB O) [New] (TL O) [New]
  • Wonder (PP O) [New]
  • Wonderstruck (PP O) [New] (TL O) [New]

Best Director

  • Call Me By Your Name – Lucas Guadagnino (WL O) [New] (PP O) [New]
  • Darkest Hour – Joe Wright (PP O) [New] (TB O) [New]
  • Detroit – Kathryn Bigelow (WL O) [New] (TB O) [New] (TL O) [New]
  • Downsizing – Alexander Payne (WL O) [New] (TB O) [New] (TL O) [New]
  • Dunkirk – Christopher Nolan (WL O) [New] (PP O) [New] (TL O) [New]
  • The Glass Castle – Daniel Cretton (TB O) [New]
  • The Greatest Showman – Michael Gracey (PP O) [New]
  • Mudbound – Dee Rees (PP O) [New]
  • The Post – Steven Spielberg (WL O) [New] (TL O) [New]
  • Untitled Paul Thomas Anderson Film – Paul Thomas Anderson (TB O) [New] (TL O) [New]

Best Actor

  • Chadwick Boseman – Marshall (TB O) [New]
  • Timothee Chalamet – Call Me By Your Name (PP O) [New]
  • Benedict Cumberbatch – The Current War (PP O) [New]
  • Matt Damon – Downsizing (WL O) [New] (TB O) [New] (TL O) [New]
  • Daniel Day-Lewis – Untitled Paul Thomas Anderson Film (WL O) [New] (TB O) [New] (TL O) [New]
  • Michael Fassbender – The Snowman (TB O) [New]
  • Andrew Garfield – Breathe (PP O) [New]
  • Tom Hanks – The Post (WL O) [New] (TL O) [New]
  • Hugh Jackman – The Greatest Showman (WL O) [New] (PP O) [New] (TL O) [New]
  • Gary Oldman – Darkest Hour (WL O) [New] (PP O) [New] (TB O) [New] (TL O) [New]

Best Actress

  • Annette Bening – Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool (PP O) [New]
  • Jessica Chastain – Molly’s Game (TL O) [New]
  • Judi Dench – Victoria and Abdul (WL O) [New] (PP O) [New] (TB O) [New] (TL O) [New]
  • Brie Larson – The Glass Castle (TB O) [New]
  • Jennifer Lawrence – Mother! (PP O) [New] (TB O) [New] (TL O) [New]
  • Frances McDormand – Three Billboards Outiide Ebbing, Missouri (WL O) [New] (PP O) [New]
  • Julianne Moore – Suburbicon (TB O) [New]
  • Julia Roberts – Wonder (WL O) [New]
  • Emma Stone – Battle of the Sexes (WL O) [New] (TL O) [New]
  • Meryl Streep – The Post (WL O) [New] (TL O) [New]
  • Emma Thompson – The Children Act (PP O) [New] (TB O) [New]

Best Supporting Actor

  • Alec Baldwin – Downsizing (WL O) [New]
  • Javier Bardem – Mother! (WL O) [New]
  • John Boyega – Detroit (TB O) [New]
  • Sterling K. Brown – Marshall (WL O) [New]
  • Idris Elba – Molly’s Game (TL O) [New]
  • Armie Hammer – Call Me By Your Name (WL O) [New] (PP O) [New] (TB O) [New]
  • Woody Harrelson – The Glass Castle (TB O) [New] (TL O) [New]
  • John Hurt – Darkest Hour (WL O) [New] (TB O) [New]
  • Jason Mitchell – Mudbound (PP O) [New] (TB O) [New] (TL O) [New]
  • Michael Shannon – The Current War (PP O) [New] (TL O) [New]
  • Michael Stuhlbarg – Call Me By Your Name (PP O) [New] (TL O) [New]
  • Jacob Tremblay – Wonder (PP O) [New]

Best Supporting Actress

  • Mary J. Blige – Mudbound (PP O) [New] (TB O) [New] (TL O) [New]
  • Judi Dench – Murder on the Orient Express (WL O) [New]
  • Laura Dern – Downsizing (WL O) [New]
  • Kaitlyn Dever – Detroit (TB O) [New]
  • Claire Foy – Breathe (PP O) [New]
  • Julianne Moore – Wonderstruck (WL O) [New] (PP O) [New] (TB O) [New] (TL O) [New]
  • Michelle Pfeiffer – Mother! (WL O) [New] (PP O) [New] (TB O) [New] (TL O) [New]
  • Kristin Scott Thomas – Darkest Hour (TL O) [New]
  • Naomi Watts – The Glass Castle (TB O) [New]
  • Michelle Williams – The Greatest Showman (WL O) [New] (PP O) [New] (TL O) [New]

Verified by MonsterInsights