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As is our tradition, May begins our first predictive look at the year’s Oscar hopefuls. A lot of factors will play into how well our guesses hold up. Expect many of them to fall by the wayside as the year progresses and new contenders to rise into their places.

We move into the month of July and introduce our first new prediction categories: Best Original Screenplay and Best Adapted Screenplay. The changes this month are minimal for all of our contributors. We’ve lowered our estimations of some films and improved them on others. Without much change, it’s hard to say what new will crop up between now and Oscar time that could change our opinions.


KEY:

Appears on Four Lists
Appears on Three Lists
Appears on Two Lists

Wesley Lovell Peter Patrick Tripp Burton Thomas LaTourrette
[New] = New Prediction
[Return] = Prior Prediction Returning
(O) = Original Predictions
(J) = June Predictions
(L) = July Predictions

Introductions

Wesley Lovell: I haven’t seen enough chatter or buzz die or build since making my last predictions, so these are largely the same except they now include my screenwriting predictions and a single spot change in Best Actress. I’m sure something’s going to fade as the year goes on, but right now, I don’t see many changes.
Peter J. Patrick: The year is starting to come into clearer focus with the release of trailers, festival positioning, and other early indicators. I am still not jumping on the Spielberg-Streep-Hanks bandwagon with newly titled The Papers, which has yet to begin filming.
Tripp Burton: Not much has changed since the last month, except I am finally giving in that Steven Spielberg’s The Papers really will make it to a December release, so I’m adding it in here.
Thomas LaTourette: I have done some tweaking of the past two monthโ€™s lists. Best actor was the only category that stayed exactly the same. I added Suburbicon, Downsizing, and Blade Runner 2049 to the Best Picture list while dropping The Greatest Showman, Marshall, and Wonderstruck. Call Me by Your Nameโ€™s director replaced Paul Thomas Anderson. Claire Foyโ€™s dutiful wife in Breathless replaced Emma Stoneโ€™s Billie Jean King, though she might make it back into the list. Marshallโ€™s Sterling K. Brown replaced Idris Elba from Mollyโ€™s Game, but that one also could reverse. In supporting actress, Melissa Leo is the new name for me for Novitiate, whereas Michelle Pfeiffer returns for Mother!. Itโ€™s all still a guessing game, but still a fun one to play.

Best Picture

  • Blade Runner 2049 (TL L) [New]
  • Breathe (PP O)
  • Call Me By Your Name (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
  • The Current War (WL O)
  • Darkest Hour (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL J)
  • Detroit (WL O) (TB O) (TL O)
  • Downsizing (WL O) (TB O) (TL L) [New]
  • Dunkirk (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
  • Get Out (WL O)
  • The Glass Castle (TB O)
  • The Greatest Showman (PP O) (TL J)
  • Lean on Pete (PP J)
  • Mudbound (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
  • The Papers (WL O) (TB L) [New] (TL O)
  • Phantom Thread (WL O) (PP L) [New] (TB O) (TL O)
  • Suburbicon (WL O) (TB O)
  • Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PP O)
  • Victoria and Abdul (PP L) [New]

Best Director

  • Call Me By Your Name – Lucas Guadagnino (WL O) (PP O) (TL L) [New]
  • Darkest Hour – Joe Wright (PP O) (TB O) (TL J)
  • Detroit – Kathryn Bigelow (WL O) (TL O)
  • Downsizing – Alexander Payne (WL O) (TB O)
  • Dunkirk – Christopher Nolan (WL O) (PP O) (TL O)
  • The Glass Castle – Daniel Cretton (TB O)
  • The Greatest Showman – Michael Gracey (PP O)
  • The Papers – Steven Spielberg (WL O) (TB L) [New] (TL O)
  • Phantom Thread – Paul Thomas Anderson (PP L) [New] (TB O)

Best Actor

  • Chadwick Boseman – Marshall (TB O) (TL J)
  • Timothee Chalamet – Call Me By Your Name (PP O)
  • Matt Damon – Downsizing (WL O) (TB O)
  • Daniel Day-Lewis – Phantom Thread (WL O) (PP L) [New] (TB O) (TL O)
  • Michael Fassbender – The Snowman (TB O)
  • Andrew Garfield – Breathe (PP O)
  • Tom Hanks – The Papers (WL O) (TL O)
  • Hugh Jackman – The Greatest Showman (WL O) (PP O) (TL O)
  • Gary Oldman – Darkest Hour (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)

Best Actress

  • Jessica Chastain – Molly’s Game (TL O)
  • Glenn Close – The Wife (WL L) [New]
  • Judi Dench – Victoria and Abdul (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
  • Claire Foy – Breathe (PP J) (TL L) [New]
  • Brie Larson – The Glass Castle (TB O)
  • Jennifer Lawrence – Mother! (PP L) [New]
  • Frances McDormand – Three Billboards Outiide Ebbing, Missouri (WL O) (PP O) (TL J)
  • Julianne Moore – Suburbicon (TB O)
  • Emma Stone – Battle of the Sexes (WL O)
  • Meryl Streep – The Papers (WL O) (TB L) [New] (TL O)
  • Emma Thompson – The Children Act (TB O)
  • Kate Winslet – Wonder Wheel (PP J)

Best Supporting Actor

  • Alec Baldwin – Downsizing (WL O)
  • Javier Bardem – Mother! (WL O)
  • John Boyega – Detroit (TB O)
  • Sterling K. Brown – Marshall (WL O) (TL L) [New]
  • Steve Buscemi – Lean on Pete (PP J)
  • Armie Hammer – Call Me By Your Name (WL O) (PP O) (TB O)
  • Woody Harrelson – The Glass Castle (TB O) (TL O)
  • John Hurt – Darkest Hour (WL O) (TB O)
  • Ben Mendelsohn – Darkest Hour (PP L) [New]
  • Jason Mitchell – Mudbound (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
  • Michael Shannon – The Current War (TL O)
  • Michael Stuhlbarg – Call Me By Your Name (PP O) (TL O)

Best Supporting Actress

  • Mary J. Blige – Mudbound (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
  • Carrie Coon – The Papers (TB L) [New]
  • Laura Dern – Downsizing (WL O)
  • Melissa Leo – The Novitiate (PP J) (TL L) [New]
  • Julianne Moore – Wonderstruck (WL O) (TB O)
  • Michelle Pfeiffer – Mother! (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL L) [New]
  • Kristin Scott Thomas – Darkest Hour (PP L) [New] (TL O)
  • Naomi Watts – The Glass Castle (WL J) (TB O)
  • Michelle Williams – The Greatest Showman (WL O) (PP O) (TL O)

Best Original Screenplay

  • Breathe (PP O)
  • Darkest Hour (PP O) (TL O)
  • Detroit (WL O) (TB O) (TL O)
  • Downsizing (WL O) (TB O)
  • Get Out (WL O) (PP O) (TL O)
  • The Greatest Showman (PP O)
  • The Papers (WL O) (TB O) (TL O)
  • Phantom Thread (TB O)
  • Suburbicon (TB O)
  • Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (WL O) (PP O) (TL O)

Best Adapted Screenplay

  • The Beguiled (WL O) (TB O) (TL O)
  • Call Me By Your Name (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
  • The Death of Stalin (PP O)
  • The Glass Castle (WL O) (TB O)
  • Last Flag Flying (PP O)
  • Lean on Pete (PP O) (TL O)
  • Molly’s Game (TL O)
  • Mudbound (WL O) (TB O) (TL O)
  • The Snowman (WL O)
  • Victoria and Abdul (PP O)
  • Wonderstruck (TB O)

Verified by MonsterInsights