As is our tradition, May begins our first predictive look at the year’s Oscar hopefuls. A lot of factors will play into how well our guesses hold up. Expect many of them to fall by the wayside as the year progresses and new contenders to rise into their places.

As we move into June, the Summer allows us to reflect on the large number of influential events that take place early in the year. As such, there are also fewer changes that we make. This far out, it’s almost impossible to know for certain what will and won’t be a success late in the year. That’s especially true with so few contenders having been released so far.

For our second predictions article, we decided to stick to the original six categories. There were few changes overall, though some felt the need to make major adjustment, while others made very few. Below are our predictions as of June. In July, we’ll expand this list to include the screenplay categories.

KEY:

Introductions

Wesley Lovell: Outside of the Cannes Film Festival, not much has happened since our May update. As such, I haven’t seen enough evidence of a shift in focus from my original predictions, so they remain largely intact. I made several changes to my full Hopefuls list after seeing trailers for a handful of contenders as well as witnessed the release receptions of others. Thus, the only removal for me is Judi Dench in Supporting Actress, replaced temporarily with Naomi Watts.
Peter J. Patrick: It’s still early days for Oscar predictions with most, if not all, of the year’s most highly anticipated films still awaiting release. The Cannes Film Festival, held in May, was no help at all. Consequently, I’ve made very few changes to my predictions. The category most affected is Best Actress to which I’ve moved Claire Foy in Breathe from Supporting and added Margot Robbie (Goodbye Christopher Robin) and Kate Winslet (Wonder Wheel). Melissa Leo (The Novitiate) gets the benefit of the opening created by Ms. Foy’s promotion.
Tripp Burton: I don’t have too many changes to make from last time; the word out of Cannes didn’t change much, although it put a couple of artier films on the radar that could sneak in if they get as much support here as they did over there (The Beguiled, You Were Never Really Here). So this list looks familiar, but this summer should start clearing up at least a couple questions about some films that will start creeping out.
Thomas LaTourette: At this point it is still mostly guessing, not really predicting, but Cannes gives us some knowledge of the upcoming films. There are some reviews to read, though a number of those did not sound like Oscar potentials. Dunkirk is still the only one I have seen previews for, but have heard good things about it. Steven Spielberg’s The Post is about the Pentagon Papers, and he is never to be ruled out where the Oscars are concerned. Neither is Paul Thomas Anderson, working with Daniel Day-Lewis again, who both could be factors. The gay-themed Call My By Your Name could be a player as Moonlight proved last year. It’s still too early to really know, but still fun to guess.

Best Picture

• Breathe (PP O)
• Call Me By Your Name (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• The Current War (WL O)
• Darkest Hour (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL J) [New]
• Detroit (WL O) (TB O) (TL O)
• Downsizing (WL O) (TB O)
• Dunkirk (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• Get Out (WL O)
• The Glass Castle (TB O)
• Goodbye, Christopher Robin (PP J) [New]
• The Greatest Showman (PP O) (TL J) [New]
• Lean on Pete (PP J) [New]
• Marshall (TL J) [New]
• Mother! (TB O)
• Mudbound (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• Phantom Thread (WL O) (TB O) (TL O)
• The Post (WL O) (TL O)
• Suburbicon (WL O) (TB O)
• Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PP O)
• Wonder (PP O)
• Wonderstruck (TL O)

Best Director

• Call Me By Your Name – Lucas Guadagnino (WL O) (PP O)
• Darkest Hour – Joe Wright (PP O) (TB O) (TL J) [New]
• Detroit – Kathryn Bigelow (WL O) (TB O) (TL O)
• Downsizing – Alexander Payne (WL O) (TB O)
• Dunkirk – Christopher Nolan (WL O) (PP O) (TL O)
• The Glass Castle – Daniel Cretton (TB O)
• The Greatest Showman – Michael Gracey (PP O)
• Mudbound – Dee Rees (PP O)
• Phantom Thread – Paul Thomas Anderson (TB O) (TL O)
• The Post – Steven Spielberg (WL O) (TL O)

Best Actor

• Chadwick Boseman – Marshall (TB O) (TL J) [New]
• Timothee Chalamet – Call Me By Your Name (PP O)
• Matt Damon – Downsizing (WL O) (TB O)
• Daniel Day-Lewis – Phantom Thread (WL O) (TB O) (TL O)
• Michael Fassbender – The Snowman (TB O)
• Andrew Garfield – Breathe (PP O)
• Domhnall Gleeson – Goodbye, Christopher Robin (PP J) [New]
• Tom Hanks – The Post (WL O) (TL O)
• Hugh Jackman – The Greatest Showman (WL O) (PP O) (TL O)
• Gary Oldman – Darkest Hour (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)

Best Actress

• Jessica Chastain – Molly’s Game (TL O)
• Judi Dench – Victoria and Abdul (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• Claire Foy – Breathe (PP J) [New]
• Brie Larson – The Glass Castle (TB O)
• Jennifer Lawrence – Mother! (TB O)
• Frances McDormand – Three Billboards Outiide Ebbing, Missouri (WL O) (PP O) (TL J) [New]
• Julianne Moore – Suburbicon (TB O)
• Margot Robbie – Goodbye, Christopher Robin (PP J) [New]
• Julia Roberts – Wonder (WL O)
• Emma Stone – Battle of the Sexes (WL O) (TL O)
• Meryl Streep – The Post (WL O) (TL O)
• Emma Thompson – The Children Act (TB O)
• Kate Winslet – Wonder Wheel (PP J) [New]

Best Supporting Actor

• Alec Baldwin – Downsizing (WL O)
• Javier Bardem – Mother! (WL O)
• John Boyega – Detroit (TB O)
• Sterling K. Brown – Marshall (WL O)
• Steve Buscemi – Lean on Pete (PP J) [New]
• Idris Elba – Molly’s Game (TL O)
• Armie Hammer – Call Me By Your Name (WL O) (PP O) (TB O)
• Woody Harrelson – The Glass Castle (TB O) (TL O)
• John Hurt – Darkest Hour (WL O) (TB O)
• Jason Mitchell – Mudbound (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• Michael Shannon – The Current War (TL O)
• Michael Stuhlbarg – Call Me By Your Name (PP O) (TL O)
• Jacob Tremblay – Wonder (PP O)

Best Supporting Actress

• Mary J. Blige – Mudbound (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• Laura Dern – Downsizing (WL O)
• Nicole Kidman – The Beguiled (TB J) [New]
• Melissa Leo – The Novitiate (PP J) [New]
• Julianne Moore – Wonderstruck (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• Michelle Pfeiffer – Mother! (WL O) (PP O) (TB O)
• Margot Robbie – Goodbye, Christopher Robin (TL J) [New]
• Kristin Scott Thomas – Darkest Hour (TL O)
• Naomi Watts – The Glass Castle (WL J) [New] (TB O)
• Michelle Williams – The Greatest Showman (WL O) (PP O) (TL O)