2017 Oscar Nominations Predictions: November

As is our tradition, May began our first predictive look at the year’s Oscar hopefuls. A lot of factors will play into how well our guesses hold up. Expect many of them to fall by the wayside as the year progresses and new contenders to rise into their places.

November is the month where we make minor tweaks before the critics and guilds start announcing winners and nominees. This will be our last list before Thanksgiving and after that starts the onslaught of precursor awards. We move forward with few changes this month except a solidifying of support behind Lady Bird, a removal of support for films like Last Flag Flying and others whose dreams were crushed by weak or bad buzz. We’ve added two final categories, Best Original Score and Best Makeup & Hairstyling, before the precursors begin. in December, we’ll add every category for which there are shortlists available as well as the three main categories we’ve yet to consider: Original Song, Sound Mixing, and Sound Editing. Until then, enjoy.

KEY:

Appears on Four Lists
Appears on Three Lists
Appears on Two Lists

Wesley Lovell Peter Patrick Tripp Burton Thomas LaTourrette

[New] = New Prediction
[Return] = Prior Prediction Returning
(O) = Original Predictions
(J) = June Predictions
(L) = July Predictions
(A) = August Predictions
(F) = Post-Festival (September) Predictions
(Oc) = October Predictions
(N) = November Predictions

Introductions

Wesley Lovell: I didn’t make a lot of changes this month. Lady Bird proved to be more exciting a prospect than I thought, while I downgraded my consideration of too-early releases like The Big Sick. There’s so much we don’t know yet since Phantom Thread, The Greatest Showman, and The Post remain unseen, but those question marks should start showing up soon.
Peter J. Patrick: With only The Greatest Showman, Phantom Thread, and The Post, among major releases, yet to be seen by critics, things are coming to a head. With other high profile films falling by the wayside, we’re beginning to see well-regarded popcorn movies like Get Out and Beauty and the Beast becoming more likely Best Picture contenders than I would have thought six months ago. On the other hand, I’m still not ready to jump on the annual Meryl Streep bandwagon in the crowded Best Actress race. We’ll see what another month brings.
Tripp Burton: Nothing much new to add. There are still a lot of question marks to answer.
Thomas LaTourette: It is surprising that even at this late date, there is no single frontrunner. Several films are jockeying for attention with some rising above the pack for awhile and then fading again. A certain number seemed guaranteed to get nominations. I wonder whether Get Out will be in contention for Best Picture, as it is so not the typical nominee, but it still seems to be in the conversation. Only Gary Oldman as Best Actor for Darkest Hour and Coco for Best Animated Feature seem to have locks on their prospective wins. Most everything else is still up in the air. I changed some predictions in almost every category. Again.

Best Picture

The Big Sick (TL N) [New]
Blade Runner 2049 (WL Oc)
Call Me By Your Name (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
Darkest Hour (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL J)
Downsizing (WL O) (TB O)
Dunkirk (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
The Florida Project (PP F)
Get Out (WL F) (PP N) [New] (TB Oc) (TL Oc)
The Greatest Showman (WL F)
Lady Bird (PP Oc) (TB N) [New] (TL N) [New]
Mudbound (TL O)
Phantom Thread (WL O) (PP L)
The Post (WL O) (PP A) (TB L) (TL O)
The Shape of Water (WL F) (PP F) (TB F) (TL F)
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PP Oc) (TB N) [New] (TL Oc)
Wonder (TB A)

Best Animated Feature

The Breadwinner (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
Cars 3 (WL O)
Coco (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
Despicable Me 3 (WL O)
Ferdinand (PP O) (TL F)
The Girl Without Hands (TB O)
The Lego Batman Movie (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL Oc)
Loving Vincent (TL O)
Mary and the Witch’s Flower (PP Oc)
My Entire High School Sinking Into the Sea (TB O)

Best Director

Call Me By Your Name – Luca Guadagnino (WL O) (PP O) (TB Oc) (TL L)
Darkest Hour – Joe Wright (TL J)
Dunkirk – Christopher Nolan (WL O) (PP O) (TB A) (TL O)
Phantom Thread – Paul Thomas Anderson (WL N) [New]
The Post – Steven Spielberg (WL O) (PP A) (TB L)
The Shape of Water – Guillermo Del Toro (WL F) (PP F) (TB F) (TL F)
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri – Martin McDonagh (PP Oc) (TB N) [New] (TL N) [New]

Best Actor

Timothee Chalamet – Call Me By Your Name (PP O) (TB F) (TL N) [New]
Daniel Day-Lewis – Phantom Thread (WL O) (PP L) (TB O) (TL O)
Jake Gyllenhaal – Stronger (WL Oc) (PP N) [New] (TL Oc)
Tom Hanks – The Post (TB N) [New]
Hugh Jackman – The Greatest Showman (WL O) (TB N) [New] (TL O)
Gary Oldman – Darkest Hour (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
Denzel Washington – Roman J. Israel, Esq. (WL N) (PP N)

Best Actress

Annette Bening – Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool (PP A)
Judi Dench – Victoria and Abdul (PP O)
Sally Hawkins – The Shape of Water (WL F) (PP F) (TB F) (TL F)
Frances McDormand – Three Billboards Outiide Ebbing, Missouri (WL O) (PP O) (TB Oc) (TL J)
Margot Robbie – I, Tonya (WL N) [New] (TB Oc) (TL N) [New]
Saoirse Ronan – Lady Bird (WL N) [New] (PP Oc) (TB N) [New] (TL N) [New]
Meryl Streep – The Post (WL O) (TB L) (TL O)

Best Supporting Actor

Sterling K. Brown – Marshall (WL O)
Willem Dafoe – The Florida Project (WL Oc) (PP F) (TB Oc) (TL F)
Armie Hammer – Call Me By Your Name (WL O) (PP Oc) (TB O) (TL A)
Richard Jenkins – The Shape of Water (PP N) [New] (TB N) [New]
Ben Mendelsohn – Darkest Hour (TL F)
Sam Rockwell – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (WL F) (PP F) (TB F) (TL F)
Mark Rylance – Dunkirk (TB A)
Michael Shannon – The Shape of Water (WL F)
Michael Stuhlbarg – Call Me By Your Name (PP O) (TL O)