2017 Oscar Nominations Predictions: October

As the year progresses, we continue to update our predictions. We began this adventure in May. Five months later, we are fast approaching the most hectic portion of the pre-Oscar season: the precursors. These won’t begin until the end of November, so we have some time still to look at what’s coming.

Venice, Telluride, and Toronto are now by the wayside. The New York Film Festival is around the corner, so too are the critics awards. A lot is still fluctuating right now and although we’ve started solidifying around certain competitors, we’re still guaging the temperature of myriad others. We’ve added Best Production Design and Best Costume Design to our predictions list this month and for the most part, we’ve agreed on several prospects. Next month, we’ll shake out Best Original Score and Best Makeup and then we’ll be into the home stretch as the shortlists start finalizing and we see what the lay of the land is. However, there are still some December offerings that might shake things up further, so stay tuned.

KEY:

Appears on Four Lists
Appears on Three Lists
Appears on Two Lists

Wesley Lovell Peter Patrick
Tripp Burton Thomas LaTourrette

[New] = New Prediction
[Return] = Prior Prediction Returning
(O) = Original Predictions
(J) = June Predictions
(L) = July Predictions
(A) = August Predictions
(F) = Post-Festival (September) Predictions
(Oc) = October Predictions

Introductions

Wesley Lovell: You can never know where things might be until mid-December. Although a number of unknown factors have become known, there are still others that haven’t. We’re at that post-festival, pre-critics awards period where anything can and will change. This is just my best guess at this point with very few changes pending late releases.
Peter J. Patrick: Things are still in flux. We will know a little more by the end of the New York Film Festival later this month.
Tripp Burton: (no commentary provided)
Thomas LaTourette: At times it feels like the picture is getting clearer about what will be nominated, but some categories are still all over the place. Telluride, Venice, and Toronto did separate some films into winner and loser categories, but enough films are in contention that it is not an easy choice yet. Unlike past years, there is no single frontrunner, with several films jockeying for attention. Pixar’s Coco seems poised to win for Animated Feature, but I would say that is the only lock on a win. Whereas Best Actress has one of the strongest fields in years and could go many ways with the nominees. A couple more big films will be introduced at the New York Film Festival, but the late openings of The Post, Phantom Thread, and The Greatest Showman will keep some categories open for quite awhile. The picture will be clearer in a month, but it is fun to watch how it shakes out now.

Best Picture

Battle of the Sexes (TB F) (TL F)
Blade Runner 2049 (WL Oc) [New] (PP Oc) [New]
Call Me By Your Name (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
Darkest Hour (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL J)
Downsizing (WL O) (TB O)
Dunkirk (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
The Florida Project (PP F)
Get Out (WL F) (TB Oc) [New] (TL Oc) [New]
The Greatest Showman (WL F)
Lady Bird (PP Oc) [New]
Last Flag Flying (TB F) (TL A)
Mudbound (TL O)
Phantom Thread (WL O) (PP L)
The Post (WL O) (PP A) (TB L) (TL O)
The Shape of Water (WL F) (PP F) (TB F) (TL F)
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PP Oc) (TL Oc) [New]
Wonder (TB A)

Best Animated Feature

The Breadwinner (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
Cars 3 (WL O)
Coco (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
Despicable Me 3 (WL O)
Ferdinand (PP O) (TL F)
The Girl Without Hands (TB O)
The Lego Batman Movie (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL Oc) [New]
Loving Vincent (TL O)
Mary and the Witch’s Flower (PP Oc) [New]
My Entire High School Sinking Into the Sea (TB O)

Best Director

Call Me By Your Name – Luca Guadagnino (WL O) (PP O) (TB Oc) [New] (TL L)
Darkest Hour – Joe Wright (TB O) (TL J)
Downsizing – Alexander Payne (WL O)
Dunkirk – Christopher Nolan (WL O) (PP O) (TB A) (TL O)
The Post – Steven Spielberg (WL O) (PP A) (TB L) (TL O)
The Shape of Water – Guillermo Del Toro (WL F) (PP F) (TB F) (TL F)
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri – Martin McDonagh (PP Oc) [New]

Best Actor

Timothee Chalamet – Call Me By Your Name (PP O) (TB F)
Daniel Day-Lewis – Phantom Thread (WL O) (PP L) (TB O) (TL O)
Michael Fassbender – The Snowman (TB O)
Andrew Garfield – Breathe (WL F)
Jake Gyllenhaal – Stronger (WL Oc) [New] (TL Oc) [New]
Tom Hanks – The Post (TL O)
Hugh Jackman – The Greatest Showman (WL O) (PP O) (TL O)
Gary Oldman – Darkest Hour (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
Harry Dean Stanton – Lucky (PP Oc) [New]
Denzel Washington – Roman J. Israel, Esq. (TB F)

Best Actress

Annette Bening – Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool (WL F) (PP A)
Judi Dench – Victoria and Abdul (PP O) (TL O)
Sally Hawkins – The Shape of Water (WL F) (PP F) (TB F) (TL F)
Frances McDormand – Three Billboards Outiide Ebbing, Missouri (WL O) (PP O) (TB Oc) [New] (TL J)
Margot Robbie – I, Tonya (TB Oc) [New]
Saoirse Ronan – Lady Bird (PP Oc) [New]
Meryl Streep – The Post (WL O) (TB L) (TL O)
Kate Winslet – Wonder Wheel (WL A) (TB A) (TL F)

Best Supporting Actor

Sterling K. Brown – Marshall (WL O)
Bryan Cranston – Last Flag Flying (TB F)
Willem Dafoe – The Florida Project (WL Oc) [New] (PP F) (TB Oc) [New] (TL F)
Laurence Fishburne – Last Flag Flying (PP F)
Armie Hammer – Call Me By Your Name (WL O) (PP Oc) (TB O) (TL A)
Ben Mendelsohn – Darkest Hour (TL F)
Sam Rockwell – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (WL F) (PP F) (TB F) (TL F)
Mark Rylance – Dunkirk (TB A)
Michael Shannon – The Shape of Water (WL F) [New]
Michael Stuhlbarg – Call Me By Your Name (PP O) (TL O)