2017 Oscar Nominations Predictions: Post-Festival

The Festival Hat Trick (Telluride, Venice, and Toronto) is the official beginning of Oscar season. Although campaigning has already begun, the best lay of the landscape emerges after these festivals have premiered their works. A number of films were propelled forward this year while others seemed to fade. Please keep in mind that Toronto is still going on and there may be some surprises left, such as what film wins the Audience Award, one of the surest signs of an incoming Best Picture nomination there is these days. So, our predictions in October (which will include new predictions for Production Design and Costume Design) may have some new content to take into consideration. In November, we’ll be our closest yet to understanding the race (adding Original Score and Makeup to the list). Once we hit December, all bets will be off with a full slate of category predictions that will take shape even more as the precursor awards are announced.

Here is our current post-festival look at the Oscar nominating contest. Things are still in flux, as can be seen in places like Best Supporting Actor and Best Picture, but other races seem closer to being set such as in one of this month’s new categories: Cinematography. There, a total of six films are being discussed as nominees by our contributors with four films in full agreement and two evenly split. The Shape of Water emerged from the depths of the festival circuit to land on our lists in a big way. It went from no citations on our August list to nine this time out. Of course, two of those came in categories we introduced for the first time this month: Film Editing and Cinematography.

After the break, take a look at our introductions as well as our list of predictions in twelve of Oscar’s eventual 24 categories.

KEY:

Appears on Four Lists
Appears on Three Lists
Appears on Two Lists

Wesley Lovell Peter Patrick Tripp Burton Thomas LaTourrette

[New] = New Prediction
[Return] = Prior Prediction Returning
(O) = Original Predictions
(J) = June Predictions
(L) = July Predictions
(A) = August Predictions
(F) = Post-Festival (September) Predictions

Introductions

Wesley Lovell: At times, I feel like I can be a bit stubborn. I still have a number of nominations predicted for films or performances that, realistically, don’t have a lot of potential for Oscar consideration. Other times, I remain steadfast in my belief that certain films are being undersold or underappreciated for how they could feature more prominently in the Oscar nominations this year. A lot of new things cropped up after the festival, but I also feel strangely more confident in many of my predictions at this juncture. We still have a few more films yet to see, but things are shaping up nicely.
Peter J. Patrick: The biggest changes for me this month are in the supporting acting categories.
Tripp Burton: (no introduction provided at this time)
Thomas LaTourette: The big film festivals have definitely helped shape my predictions, with the most movement I’ve had so far. Telluride is over and Venice almost is. Toronto is just starting, so some films will not be seen until next month’s list. I have dropped some films and acting positions off of my list while adding some that had not even seemed that close before. Some films are doing better than expected with reviews, others, like mother!, are falling down the list some. Of course there are still the big unknowns like The Post (or The Papers, depending on the week for the title), Phantom Thread, Wonder Wheel, and The Greatest Showman that have yet to screen. Detroit looks to have fallen out of contention due to controversy, even though it was well reviewed. Two pictures, The Post and Darkest Hour, still seem unsure as to whether they use original screenplays or adapted ones. I keep wondering if Call Me by Your Name will stay in contention, but so far it seems to be. New films like Lady Bird come under serious consideration. And I never would have expected The Shape of Water to be generating so much buzz in so many categories. It’s an exciting time.

Best Picture

Battle of the Sexes (PP F) [New] (TB F) [New] (TL F) [New]
Call Me By Your Name (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
The Current War (WL O)
Darkest Hour (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL J)
Downsizing (WL O) (TB O)
Dunkirk (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
The Florida Project (PP F) [New]
Get Out (WL F) [New]
The Greatest Showman (WL F) [New]
Last Flag Flying (PP F) [New] (TB F) [New] (TL A)
Mudbound (TL O)
Phantom Thread (WL O) (PP L) (TB O) (TL O)
The Post (WL O) (PP A) (TB L) (TL O)
Roman J. Israel, Esq. (TL F) [New]
The Shape of Water (WL F) [New] (PP F) [New] (TB F) [New] (TL F) [New]
Victoria and Abdul (PP L)
Wonder (TB A)

Best Animated Feature

The Breadwinner (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
Cars 3 (WL O)
Coco (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
Despicable Me 3 (WL O)
Ferdinand (PP O) (TL F) [New]
The Girl Without Hands (TB O)
The Lego Batman Movie (WL O) (PP O) (TB O)
The Lego Ninjago Movie (PP O) (TL O)
Loving Vincent (TL O)
My Entire High School Sinking Into the Sea (TB O)

Best Director

Call Me By Your Name – Luca Guadagnino (WL O) (PP O) (TL L)
Darkest Hour – Joe Wright (TB O) (TL J)
Downsizing – Alexander Payne (WL O)
Dunkirk – Christopher Nolan (WL O) (PP O) (TB A) (TL O)
Phantom Thread – Paul Thomas Anderson (PP L) (TB O)
The Post – Steven Spielberg (WL O) (PP A) (TB L) (TL O)
The Shape of Water – Guillermo Del Toro (WL F) [New] (PP F) [New] (TB F) [New] (TL F) [New]

Best Actor

Timothee Chalamet – Call Me By Your Name (PP O) (TB F) [New]
Daniel Day-Lewis – Phantom Thread (WL O) (PP L) (TB O) (TL O)
Michael Fassbender – The Snowman (TB O)
Andrew Garfield – Breathe (WL F) [New]
Tom Hanks – The Post (TL O)
Hugh Jackman – The Greatest Showman (WL O) (PP O) (TL O)
Gary Oldman – Darkest Hour (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
Denzel Washington – Roman J. Israel, Esq. (WL F) [New] (PP F) [New] (TB F) [New] (TL F) [New]

Best Actress

Annette Bening – Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool (WL F) [New] (PP A)
Judi Dench – Victoria and Abdul (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
Sally Hawkins – The Shape of Water (WL F) [New] (PP F) [New] (TB F) [New] (TL F) [New]
Frances McDormand – Three Billboards Outiide Ebbing, Missouri (WL O) (PP O) (TL J)
Emma Stone – Battle of the Sexes (TB F) [New]
Meryl Streep – The Post (WL O) (TB L) (TL O)
Kate Winslet – Wonder Wheel (WL A) (PP J) (TB A) (TL F) [New]

Best Supporting Actor

Sterling K. Brown – Marshall (WL O)
Bryan Cranston – Last Flag Flying (TB F) [New]
Willem Dafoe – The Florida Project (PP F) [New] (TL F) [New]
Laurence Fishburne – Last Flag Flying (WL F) [New] (PP F) [New]
Armie Hammer – Call Me By Your Name (WL O) (TB O) (TL A)
John Hurt – Darkest Hour (WL O)
Ben Mendelsohn – Darkest Hour (TL F) [New]
Jason Mitchell – Mudbound (TB O)
Sam Rockwell – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (WL F) [New] (PP F) [New] (TB F) [New] (TL F) [New]
Mark Rylance – Dunkirk (TB A)
Michael Shannon – The Shape of Water (PP F) [New]
Michael Stuhlbarg – Call Me By Your Name (PP O) (TL O)