The Producers Guild of America has been a terrific predictor in the last ten years until the last three years.

Prior to 2014, every film that won the PGA award for Best Picture went on to win the Oscar. It should be noted, though, that in 2013, two films tied at PGA (Gravity and 12 Years a Slave), with the latter taking the )scar. That’s a pretty impressive track record.

Best Animated Film is decent at matching with seven of ten matching. In two of those situations, the PGA winner wasn’t nominated at the Oscars (The Adventures of Tintin and The Lego Movie). In the other, it was a case of Pixar beating out Disney, as has often been the case with the Academy.

Best Documentary Feature, on the other hand, is a lousy predictor. Of the ten PGA winners, only five have gone on to win the Oscar. What makes them so abysmal is that four of those five failures were with films that weren’t nominated by the Academy. The other was nominated, but managed to lose out to a film that wasn’t nominated for the PGA. Further, of the five films that didn’t get Oscar nominations, the eventual winners in three of those cases weren’t even nominated at the PGA. It’s the only category the PGA has where the eventual Oscar winner hasn’t at least been a nominee.

PRODUCERS GUILD OF AMERICA AWARDS

Best Picture

The Big Sick
Call Me by Your Name
Dunkirk (RU:Tripp)
Get Out
I, Tonya
Lady Bird (RU:Peter)
Molly’s Game
The Post
The Shape of Water (Wesley, Tripp)
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Peter, Thomas, RU:Wesley)
Wonder Woman (RU:Thomas)

Wesley Lovell: This is a tough call. Every candidate on this list could have something small written in defense of a potential win. I went with The Shape of Water because it feels like an Old Hollywood kind of film. It has tons of technical elements, and has been well received in all quarters. Three Billboards could also be a winner after its Globe win, but is it really the kind of movie the PGA gets behind? It’s managed only $29 million after 10 weeks in release whereas Lady Bird has only one week on it and has more than $12 million above it. Further, Shape of Water has $2 million less after only 7 weeks in release. The Post is the same at only 4 weeks. Then you have Dunkirk, which was already a huge success with $188 million at the box office and Get Out is an even bigger success at $175 million on a $4.5 million budget. If Three Billboards weren’t so hot right now, I’d put Get Out in second place. Whatever film wins gets a huge boost going forward.
Peter J. Patrick: The PGA prides itself on having predicted 19 of the last 28 Oscar winners so there’s not a lot of wiggle room in this year’s nominations, with the biggest or near-biggest winners of the past month likely to recive the most votes. With that in mind, my prediction is Three Billboards.
Tripp Burton: I never quite know how to read the Producers Guild voters, and this year there are a lot of possibilities. This seems like a place that would go for The Shape of Water, an undivisive film that the preferential ballot could help and one that feels well produced. It could also be a place where Dunkirk finally gets a major citation, a la Gravity a few years ago, for being a big, well-reviewed war epic filled with difficult set pieces. Although, don’t count out smaller films like Lady Bird, Three Billboards…, or Get Out (which is receiving the Stanley Kramer award that night). This award could tell us a lot, or just muddle our perceptions even more!
Thomas LaTourette: It is always difficult to guess how the producer’s guild will vote. They are often swayed by money taken in by the film, which makes me wonder about Wonder Woman‘s chances. Or will they go more for artistic merit? I am still tempted to list Wonder Woman first, as it did so well at the box office, but I wonder if it will go to the smaller acting triumph of Three Billboards. The Shape of Water could also be a contender.

Best Animated Feature

The Boss Baby (RU:Thomas)
Coco (Wesley, Peter Tripp, Thomas)
Despicable Me 3 (RU:Wesley)
Ferdinand (RU:Peter)
The Lego Batman Movie (RU:Tripp)

Wesley Lovell: There is no competition here. Coco wins it in a walk, especially with no indie animated films on the docket.
Peter J. Patrick: With Loving Vincent out of the running, it looks like a clean sweep for Coco.
Tripp Burton: I don’t see how Coco, one of the best reviewed films of the year and a film that is seen as beloved and trail-blazing, loses any precursors this season.
Thomas LaTourette: I don’t think anything will beat Coco, a lively film that has also done well at the box office. It should easily win.

Best Documentary

Chasing Coral
City of Ghosts (RU:Wesley, RU:Tripp, RU:Thomas)
Cries from Syria (Peter)
Earth: One Amazing Day
Jane (Wesley, Tripp, Thomas, RU: Peter)
Joshua: Teenager vs. Superpower
The Newspaperman: The Life and Times of Ben Bradlee

Wesley Lovell: This one is a bit tougher than the others as the PGA rarely ever cares what’s up for Oscars. However, Jane has been universally well received, but I could imagine either City of Ghosts or Cries from Syria, both more logistically complex, to be potential spoilers.
Peter J. Patrick: With no idea of what they’re looking for, I’ll just guess at this one.
Tripp Burton: The PGA is a little all over the board with this pick, although they tend to lean towards biographical docs and inspiring lives. That should lean towards Jane, but one of the Syria documentaries could show up here too.
Thomas LaTourette: Jane has been the most widely distributed documentary so far this year, so I think it will go on to win. Chasing Coral might, but if anything sneaks past Jane I think it would be City of Ghosts which also has BAFTA and DGA nominations to its credit.