Looking at the past ten years of the SAG awards and their winners, we see trends toward their alignment with Oscar. They haven’t had fewer than three winners carry over. 4 of the ten years saw 3 matches with Oscar, 4 saw 4 matches with Oscars, and the remaining 2 were perfect matches (2010 and 2014).

While Best Cast is ostensibly for the ensemble performance, that award has matched the Oscar 6 of the ten years, two of which foreshadowed the eventual Best Picture Oscar wins of Birdman and Spotlight.

In Best Actor, nine of the ten winners went on to Oscar wins and that outlier was last yaer when Denzel Washington, who didn’t have a SAG award yet, got one.

Best Actress has seen more fluctuation. Seven of the ten winners have gone on to Oscar. One of those cases was a situation where the SAG winner for Best Supporting Actress (Kate Winslet in The Reader) was bumped up to lead at the Academy and won over Streep (for Doubt) who had won the lead SAG award. Strangely enough, three years later, it would be Streep who knocked out the SAG winner at the Oscars beating her Doubt co-star Viola Davis at the Oscars. The first of those times in the ten years was a foreign actress (Marion Cotillard) winning over a screen legend (Julie Christie) at the Oscars.

In Supporting Actor, the count is eight matching SAG and Oscar. Those two instances were unique. The first involved an actor who were not nominated at SAG winning the Oscar: Christoph Waltz winning his second Oscar over SAG winner Tommy Lee Jones. The second was Mark Rylance, who got the SAG nomination, but lost to Idris Elba who was snubbed by the Academy thanks to the film industry’s dislike of the Netflix distribution model of Beasts of No Nation. So, without extenuating circumstances, Supporting Actor is a fairly strong corollary.

Finally, in Supporting Actress, there were eight matches. The first of those was acting legend Ruby Dee failing to overcome Tilda Swinton, whose win at BAFTA foreshadowed the Oscar win. The other was when Kate Winslet vacated support for lead at the Oscars allowing Penelope Cruz to win the Oscar.

Knowing these facts, it’s easy to show that SAG is a great precursor for all of the acting awards, but a mediocre one for Best Picture. Still, a win can presage an Oscar victory, especially when the PGA and SAG awards diverge, which has happened in each of the last three years with two of those years seeing the Oscar for Best Picture matching the SAG Cast award and the other being where neither PGA nor SAG matched. Could that happen again this year? We might konw by the end of the weekend, especially if both PGA and SAG match.

SCREEN ACTORS GUILD AWARDS

Best Cast

The Big Sick
Get Out
Lady Bird (Tripp, RU:Wesley, RU:Peter, RU:Thomas)
Mudbound
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Wesley, Peter, Thomas, RU:Tripp)

Wesley Lovell: While they don’t always abide by it, the general rule for predicting the Screen Actors Guild ensemble award is which has the largest cast. Three have seven nominated actors, two have eleven. Between Three Billboards and Lady Bird, the former has the bigger names attached and the ones most likely to win other awards, giving Three Billboards a strong sweep of the SAG awards.
Peter J. Patrick: SAG often deviates from the other awards groups, sometimes giving their awards to actors who’ve won Oscars in the past, but are not presumed frontrunners in the current year. They do, however, gravitate toward performers with long resumes. With that in mind, my predictions are as outlined.
Tripp Burton: One of two things will happen on Sunday night. Our four frontrunners will be solidified, or all of these competitions will become a lot more heated heading into the Oscars.; I’m going to go on a limb that Lady Bird sneaks out a win here, although many are picking Three Billboards. I don’t know why, except the Three Billboards backlash may start here.
Thomas LaTourette: This is always one of the more interesting precursor awards. It does a better job of forecasting the eventual Oscar winners than most, but it happens so early that there is not much to judge by how it will go. Several categories come down to two likely candidates, and I am going with my gut on who will win.; With three individual nominations, Three Billboards probably will go on to win for Best Cast as well. Two of those three may well win here, so I think the strength of that will take it to the win. If anything could beat it, it might be Lady Bird, which has two individual nominations. I think Three Billboards will easily win.

Best Actor

Timothée Chalamet – Call Me by Your Name (RU:Wesley, RU:Peter, RU:Thomas)
James Franco – The Disaster Artist
Daniel Kaluuya – Get Out (RU:Tripp)
Gary Oldman – Darkest Hour (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, Thomas)
Denzel Washington – Roman J. Israel, Esq.

Wesley Lovell: The ony way Gary Oldman loses is if people remember his past right wing comments, but acting legends are still a favorite.
Peter J. Patrick: Oldman fits the SAG mold, with Chalamet a genuine threat.
Tripp Burton: I don’t see Gary Oldman stopping his run towards an Oscar on any of these televised awards shows.
Thomas LaTourette: Gary Oldman has been the frontrunner all year, and I do not see him losing now. If anyone could, it might be the youngster Timothee Chalamet, but I do not expect that to happen.

Best Actress

Judi Dench – Victoria & Abdul
Sally Hawkins – The Shape of Water (RU:Wesley, RU:Tripp, RU:Thomas)
Frances McDormand – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, Thomas)
Margot Robbie – I, Tonya
Saoirse Ronan – Lady Bird (RU:Peter)

Wesley Lovell: McDormand’s begun an almost inevitable sweep, but that’s kind of disappointing against such strong competitors.
Peter J. Patrick: McDormand has never won here, should make up for past losses this year with Ronan a genuine threat.
Tripp Burton: The SAG voters love Frances McDormand, who has two SAG awards already, and Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri is a film that should play strongly to actors. Sally Hawkins and Saoirse Ronan are competing too, however, and one of their wins could make this quite the battle down the stretch.
Thomas LaTourette: I would prefer that the quieter performance by Sally Hawkins win, but I think it will go to Frances McDormand, and that is okay too. Conceivably Margot Robbie could sneak in for a surprise win by an ingenue. It seems more likely that the award will come down to one of the older veterans. Whoever wins here stands a very good chance of winning the Oscar as well.

Best Supporting Actor

Steve Carell – Battle of the Sexes
Willem Dafoe – The Florida Project (RU:Wesley, RU:Peter, RU:Tripp, RU:Thomas)
Woody Harrelson – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Richard Jenkins – The Shape of Water
Sam Rockwell – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, Thomas)

Wesley Lovell: Before the new year, Willem Dafoe would have been unbeatable. Now, he’s being beaten regularly. The lack of theatrics in the performance will likely hurt him while Sam Rockwell has his moment.
Peter J. Patrick: I think Rockwell is on a roll and should win in a tough race with Dafoe.
Tripp Burton: After winning seemingly every critics award, Willem Dafoe hasn’t picked up a televised award yet. I’m not sure if he can win here, unless Rockwell’s divisive character doesn’t play well to a larger group of voters than the HFPA.
Thomas LaTourette: Sam Rockwell has been on a winning trajectory lately, and I hope that continues with this award. He did splendid work in Three Billboards and deserves to be honored. Willem Dafoe spent much of the year listed as the frontrunner, but he seems to be slipping now.

Best Supporting Actress

Mary J. Blige – Mudbound
Hong Chau – Downsizing
Holly Hunter – The Big Sick
Allison Janney – I, Tonya (Wesley, Tripp, RU:Peter, RU:Thomas)
Laurie Metcalf – Lady Bird (Peter, Thomas, RU:Wesley, RU:Tripp)

Wesley Lovell: This comes down to two TV megastars: Laurie Metcalf has that stint on Roseanne, which didn’t quite pre-date SAG, but which didn’t get a lot of love from it either, and Allison Janney from The West Wing, which earned seven cast nominations, including Janney, as well as five for Janney alone, including two wins. If they remember and honor Metcalf for never having been honored before (see Denzel Washington for Fences), that might off-set the obvious love for Janney. However, Janney has, like Rockwell in Supporting Actor, turned the new year into her playground with consistent victories and when you look at the two performances, it’s easy to see why Janney, with the much showier role and the more difficult one to buld sympathy for, is the frontrunner at this juncture.
Peter J. Patrick: I see Metcalf taking this in a tug-of-war with Janney.
Tripp Burton: All of these awards will be between Metcalf and Janney, and with six SAG awards already, voters are used to writing Janney’s name down again and again.
Thomas LaTourette: This award will come down to these two actresses. Janney has won the last couple of awards, but I wonder if this one will go to Metcalf. They are both good in very diverse roles. Like with Best Actress, whoever wins here probably will go on to claim the Oscar.

Best Stunt Ensemble

Baby Driver
Dunkirk (Wesley, Tripp, Thomas)
Logan (RU:Peter)
War for the Planet of the Apes
Wonder Woman (Peter, RU:Wesley, RU:Tripp, RU:Thomas)

Wesley Lovell: Baby Driver has mostly vehicular stuntwork, Logan has very few stunt moments, and Planet of the Apes is mostly CGI-covered battles. That leaves the crowd-pleasers Dunkirk and Wonder Woman. While I have a sneaking suspcion that Wonder Woman could come out on top, I suspect Dunkirk may pull it out.
Peter J. Patrick: I think they’ll go with the year of the woman here and pick Wonder Woman. In any other year I would have thought Dunkirk or Logan.
Tripp Burton: I have no idea what will happen here, but Dunkirk seems like the safest bet.
Thomas LaTourette: I could see this award going either way. I am guessing that the larger crew of Dunkirk will win, even though Wonder Woman was the more talked about film.