February 3, 2017

The Comedian

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: It had a brief qualifying run for the 2016 Oscars, but was never a contender.
Box Office Prospects: $25 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Doubtful. The film was positioned for an Oscar run, but never materialized the requisite buzz. Now it’s a February release hoping to take Robert De Niro’s name and use it as a clever marketing tool. So far, it doesn’t appear to be working.”
Box Office Results: $1.7 M
Thoughts: [Flop] The film was dumped from wide release to limited thanks to mediocre to scathing reviews. It never had much of a shot at that point.

Rings

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $65 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. It’s been a longtime since the Ring films were popular, but there could be residual love for them since they haven’t had sequels done ad nauseum in the interim.”
Box Office Results: $27.8 M
Thoughts: [Flop] The attempt to reboot this franchise showed that doing such isn’t always the wisest move.

The Space Between Us

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $45 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. I want to say it will be a hit since there isn’t much in the release window to suggest competition, but there’s something about it that makes me think it might have a solid opening and then crash afterwards.”
Box Office Results: $7.9 M
Thoughts: [Flop] Young adult dramas aren’t having good luck at the box office with this latest literary adaptation that became a cinematic dud.

February 10, 2017

Fifty Shades Darker

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Uncertain. Maybe a new song will be written for this film that will earn a nomination and force Oscar completists to watch the film.”
Oscar Results: With the weak box office performance and lack of support from critics, the series is likely to be ignored from here on out.
Box Office Prospects: $150 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Excellent. The original film was a solid hit and there’s no reason to believe the sequel will be any different.”
Box Office Results: $114.4 M
Thoughts: [Minor Success] Interest has waned for this sexy adult drama. Dropping almost a third of its predecessor’s box office totals, it doesn’t appear that this property is as hot as it was once thought to be.

John Wick: Chapter Two

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $50 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. I’m not certain why a film that had mediocre success at the box office now has a sequel, but a lot of films have gotten that lately. Has it built enough of a cult audience to succeed? Who knows for certain, but they are releasing wide in hopes that it will.”
Box Office Results: $92 M
Thoughts: [Success] The first film was a modest success, but became a cult phenomenon. This was so appealing to the producers that they put out a sequel, which did incredibly well, falling just shy of the $100 million mark, but more than doubling its predecessor.

The Lego Batman Movie

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Uncertain. The first Lego Movie was thought not only to be a slam-dunk nominee, but the eventual winner. The Academy said “no” and it became one of the biggest Oscar upsets in history by failing to even get a nomination. This time will likely be different. That is if there isn’t too much competition this year.”
Oscar Results: Although it wasn’t as big a box office success as its predecessor, the Academy is much more likely to recognize this film. The flack it got over ignoring the original should bolster the film’s chances, along with the lack of suitable competition in the category this year.
Box Office Prospects: $300 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Excellent. The original Lego Movie was huge. Combine that with the very popular Batman character and you have a hit that will likely be even bigger.”
Box Office Results: $175.8 M
Thoughts: [Minor Success] What’s most peculiar here is that the first Lego Movie was a huge box office success, topping $250 million. That success combined with the popularity of the Batman character should have resulted in a bigger box office tally, yet somehow it didn’t. This total isn’t bad, but it’s not nearly as impressive as the studio would hope and casts doubt on the potential of the Ninjago movie later this year.

A United Kingdom (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $2.5 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. It was originally slated for 2016, but has ended up pushed back to a February limited release. It doesn’t appear anyone has faith in the film.”
Box Office Results: $3.9 M
Thoughts: [Minor Success] Without the benefit of Oscar consideration, this period drama ended up a bigger success than I would have imagined. It’s not a runaway success, but a minor one to say the least.

February 17, 2017

A Cure for Wellness

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $30 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. I want it to be a success, but it looks odd and unusual, which won’t help build an audience.”
Box Office Results: $8.1 M
Thoughts: [Flop] It was ambitious, but was going to be a tough sell. With no major stars in it, the film had to be sold on its bizarre trailers. Unfortunately, audiences just weren’t that curious.

Fist Fight

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $80 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Decent. The film enters a landscape that is seriously starved for good, non-animated comedies, which could make it an unqualified success.”
Box Office Results: $32.2 M
Thoughts: [Flop] The studio so hoped that the R-rated comedy would be a huge hit like so many others in recent years, but a poor advertising campaign and weak word of mouth resulted in a comedic dud.

The Great Wall

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Decent. It could make some of the tech categories next year, but it won’t approach any of the major categories.”
Oscar Results: The critics weren’t terribly impressed, nor were audiences. That means the film’s Oscar chances are virtually nil now.
Box Office Prospects: $100 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. Matt Damon is a well known name and the film has a lot of style on display in its trailer. I suspect the film could be pretty big. It could also get lost n the shuffle.”
Box Office Results: $45.2 M
Thoughts: [Flop] Matt Damons should have easily sold this film, but the marketing campaign was strange and no one seemed interested in the film after it gave away the mystery of the creatures attacking the wall.

Patient Zero

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results:
Box Office Prospects: $25 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. This horror film has no marketing avaialble as yet. That’s troublesome for a film that needs some kind of marketing to be popular. Either it releases and flops or gets pushed back to have more time to germinate.”
Box Office Results: N/A
Thoughts: The film has been taken off the release schedule.

Land of Mine (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Good. It’s on the shortlist for Best Foreign Language Film at the Oscars. I suspect it will be nominated next week. A win seems unlikely, but not impossible.”
Oscar Results: The film was nominated for an Oscar for Best Foreign Language Film, but it lost.
Box Office Prospects: $2 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. This film is on the Oscar shortlist. A nominationc oudl bolster its box office potential, as I suspect it will. No nomination will drop its potential significantly.”
Box Office Results: $0.435 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] Without an Oscar win, foreign films just don’t have the clout they once enjoyed at the box office, either in their first boom in the 1950s or the second in the 1990s.

February 24, 2017

Get Out

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: After its surprise success and the glowing support of critics, the film has shockingly entered the conversation for the Oscars. Although I believe it will fall short of a Best Picture nomination, a screenwriting nod is a strong possibility now.
Box Office Prospects: $55 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. This has an unusual storyline that might encourage a lot of people to seek it out to discover the truth. It could also fail to catch on for lacking any supernatural elements, which seem to be far too often required from horror these days.”
Box Office Results: $175.5 M
Thoughts: [Major Success] Proof that not all horror films are equal, critical support can bolster a horror flicks chances immeasurably and the rave reviews gave it a solid boost, leading to a huge box office victory, one of the biggest the genre has seen in ages.

Rock Dog

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $75 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. I want to say the film will be a huge failure, but it’s polished enough to at least perform adequately. On the heels of the Lego Batman Movie, there won’t be as much desire for an animated film, so it could easily collapse.”
Box Office Results: $9.4 M
Thoughts: [Major Flop] Animation can be hit or miss and even bad animation can be successful. This is proof that not every animated film will end up a success.