As is our tradition, May begins our first predictive look at the year’s Oscar hopefuls. A lot of factors will play into how well our guesses hold up. Expect many of them to fall by the wayside as the year progresses and new contenders to rise into their places.

Oscar season is upon us and now that the festivals are finished having their say, we are just under two months away from the critics having theirs. At that point, we will be in the thick of Oscar season and some of the niggling questions will finally be answered. Below are our current guesses for nominations based on available data from the festival circuit.

KEY:

Best Picture

• Black Panther WL O TB A New TL P
• BlacKkKlansman WL O PP O TB O TL O
• Boy Erased WL O PP O TL O
• The Favourite New PP P TL O
• First Man WL O PP A TB O TL O
• Green Book New WL P New PP P New TB P
• If Beale Street Could Talk WL A New PP P TB O TL O
• Mary Queen of Scots WL O
• On the Basis of Sex WL A TB O
• Roma New WL P New PP P TB O TL A
• A Star Is Born New WL P PP A TB O TL O
• Vice Returned PP P TB A TL O
• Widows PP O New TB P TL O

Best Animated Feature

• The Grinch WL O
• Incredibles 2 WL O PP O TB O TL O
• Isle of Dogs WL O PP O TB O TL O
• Mirai TB O
• Night Is Short, Walk on Girl New TL P
• Ralph Breaks the Internet: Wreck-It Ralph 2 WL O PP O TB O TL O
• Smallfoot PP O
• Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse WL O PP O TL O
• White Fang TB O

Best Director

• Black Panther – Ryan Coogler TB A
• BlacKkKlansman – Spike Lee WL O PP O TB O TL TL O
• The Favourite – Yorgos Lanthimos New PP P TL TL A
• First Man – Damien Chazelle WL O New PP P TB O TL TL O
• Green Book – Peter Farrelly New WL P
• On the Basis of Sex – Mimi Leder TB O
• Roma – Alfonso Cuaron New WL P New PP P New TB P TL TL A
• A Star Is Born – Bradley Cooper New WL P PP A New TL TL P

Best Actor

• Christian Bale – Vice New PP P TL O
• Steve Carell – Beautiful Boy WL A
• Bradley Cooper – A Star Is Born New WL P New PP P New TB P New TL TL P
• Willem Dafoe – At Eternity’s Gate New WL P TB O
• Ryan Gosling – First Man WL O New PP P TB O TL TL O
• Lucas Hedges – Boy Erased PP O TB O
• Rami Malek – Bohemian Rhapsody New TL TL P
• Viggo Mortensen – Green Book New WL P New PP P New TB P New TL TL P

Best Actress

• Yalitza Aparicio – Roma New PP P New TB P
• Emily Blunt – Mary Poppins Returns WL O
• Glenn Close – The Wife PP O TL TL O
• Olivia Colman – The Favourite New TL TL P
• Penélope Cruz – Loving Pablo
• Viola Davis – Widows PP O TB O New TL TL P
• Felicity Jones – On the Basis of Sex WL A TB O
• Lady Gaga – A Star Is Born WL A PP A New TB P TL TL O
• Melissa McCarthy – Can You Ever Forgive Me? WL O New PP P New TB P TL TL O
• Saoirse Ronan – Mary Queen of Scots WL O

Best Supporting Actor

• Mahershala Ali – Green Book New WL P New PP P New TB P New TL P
• Timothée Chalamet – Beautiful Boy WL O PP O TB O TL TL O
• Russell Crowe – Boy Erased WL A
• Sam Elliott – A Star Is Born New WL P PP A New TB P TL TL A
• Richard E. Grant – Can You Ever Forgive Me? WL O New PP P New TB P TL TL O
• Michael B. Jordan – Black Panther TB A
• John C. Reilly – Stan & Ollie New PP P
• Sam Rockwell – Vice TL TL O

Best Supporting Actress

• Amy Adams – Vice New TB P TL O
• Olivia Colman – The Favourite New WL P New PP P New TB P
• Claire Foy – First Man WL O New PP P TB O TL TL O
• Nicole Kidman – Boy Erased WL O PP O TB O TL TL O
• Regina King – If Beale Street Could Talk WL A New PP P TB O TL TL A
• Margot Robbie – Mary Queen of Scots WL A
• Emma Stone – The Favourite New TL TL P
• Michelle Yeoh – Crazy Rich Asians New PP P

Best Original Screenplay

• Eighth Grade New WL P TB O New TL P
• The Favourite PP O TL TL O
• First Reformed New PP P
• Green Book New WL P New PP P New TB P New TL TL P
• Peterloo TB O
• A Quiet Place New WL P
• Roma WL O PP O TB O TL TL O
• Vice New WL P New PP P TB O TL TL O

Best Adapted Screenplay

• BlacKkKlansman WL O TB O TL O
• Boy Erased PP O
• Can You Ever Forgive Me? New TB P New TL TL P
• First Man WL O New PP P TB O New TL TL P
• If Beale Street Could Talk WL O New PP P TB O TL TL O
• A Star Is Born New WL P New PP P New TB P New TL TL P
• Widows New WL P PP O

Best Visual Effects

• Annihilation WL O New PP P TL O
• Avengers: Infinity War PP O TL TL O
• Black Panther WL O PP O TB O New TL TL P
• First Man WL O PP O TB O TL TL O
• Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom TB O
• Mary Poppins Returns WL O
• Mortal Engines TB O
• Ready Player One New PP P TB O
• A Wrinkle in Time WL O New TL TL P