2018 Oscar Winner Predictions: Post-Nominations

After a rather unusual nominations announcement this morning, our contributors have come together to put out this first post-nominations predictions set. We have very little agreement here and that’s interesting. As to how we performed on the nominations, here are our results.

Thomas La Tourrette topped the list with 95 correct predictions. Wesley Lovell came in second with 91. Tripp Burton was third with 88. Peter J. Patrick was fourth with 86. The nominations that none of us saw coming were Pawel Pawlikowski in Directing; Willem Dafoe in Actor; Marina de Tavira in Supporting Actress; The Ballad of Buster Scruggs in Adapted Screenplay, Original Song, and Costume Design; Never Look Away in Cinematography, Christopher Robin in Visual Effects, Hale County This Morning, This Evening and Fathers and Sons in Documentary Feature; and A Night at the Garden in Documentary Short. Out of 121 nominations, that’s only eleven at least one of us did not see coming.

Among those nominations that only one person saw coming: Thomas is the only one to predict Yalitza Aparicio in Best Actress, Mary Queen of Scots in Makeup, and Detainment in Live Action Short. Peter was the only one who picked Bohemian Rhapsody and Green Book in Film Editing and Mother in Live Action Short Film. Tripp was the only one who selected Sam Rockwell in Supporting Actor and Late Afternoon in Animated Short Film.

And finally, here are the categories in which one or more of us got perfect predictions. Picture (all eight Best Picture nominees were ranked in our top 8 predictions), Animated (Wesley, Tripp, Thomas), Actress (Thomas), Supporting Actor (Tripp), Original Screenplay (Peter, Wesley), Production Design (Peter, Tripp, Thomas), Makeup (Thomas), Sound Mixing (Peter), and Foreign Language Film (Wesley, Peter).

Now, let’s take a look at our predictions for winners.

KEY:

Appears on Four Lists
Appears on Three Lists
Appears on Two Lists

Wesley Lovell Peter Patrick Tripp Burton Thomas LaTourrette
[New] = New Prediction
[Return] = Prior Prediction Returning
(O) = Original Prediction

Introductions

Wesley Lovell: In a morning full of surprises, disappointments, and achievements, this year’s Academy Awards will be one of the most international since the 1970s with filsm like Cold War, Never Look Away, and the biggest of all, Roma, pulling off several nominations, some of them unexpected. That said, we’ll see how the Academy feels as things go along. Now that we know who the nominees are, we can look at the various guilds for clues, though the PGA winners are automatically limited to 2 of 3 with Won’t You Be My Neighbor?‘s failure to earn a nomination, creating an tougher landscape for everyone.
Peter J. Patrick: A stronger showing than predicted for foreign language films with Cold War showing up in Best Directing and Cinematography, and Never Look Away in Cinematography as well, means that Roma is not the only foreign language film AMPAS members liked better than some high profile Hollywood contenders.
Tripp Burton: A lot of this is still up in the open. This could be a fun race!
Thomas LaTourette: The academy does know how to catch us off guard. As always there were some sure bets that didn’t make the cut. The biggest surprise is the omission of Bradley Cooper as best director for A Star Is Born. That one still surprises me. Variety said he was “Afflecked,” referring to Ben’s snub for directing Argo. That film went on to win best picture, so I wonder how much it will help this picture’s chances. We will have to wait and see about that. None of the acting nominations are that unexpected, so I will not go into them now. I found it off that Black Panther could pull off seven nominations, but they did not nominate it for best visual effects. I was also surprised that Won’t You Be My Neighbor? was not nominated for best documentary feature. Coming off its win at the Producers Guild, it had seemed the film to beat. One film that did better than expected was the Coen Brothers’ The Ballad of Buster Scruggs. It was a small film that not a lot of people saw. I guess one should never rule them out. Anyway, here are my first predictions. They are likely to change some in the future, but these a start.

Best Picture

  • Black Panther
  • BlacKkKlansman
  • Bohemian Rhapsody
  • The Favourite
  • Green Book (PP O) (TL O)
  • Roma (WL O) (TB O)
  • A Star Is Born
  • Vice

Runners Up

  • BlacKkKlansman (TB O)
  • Green Book (WL O)
  • Roma (PP O)
  • A Star Is Born (TL O)

Best Animated Feature

  • Incredibles 2
  • Isle of Dogs
  • Mirai
  • Ralph Breaks the Internet
  • Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)

Runners Up

  • Incredibles 2 (WL O) (TB O) (TL O)
  • Isle of Dogs (PP O)

Best Director

  • BlacKkKlansman – Spike Lee
  • Cold War – Pawel Pawlikowski
  • The Favourite – Yorgos Lanthimos
  • Roma – Alfonso Cuaron (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
  • Vice – Adam McKay

Runners Up

  • BlacKkKlansman – Spike Lee (WL O) (TB O) (TL O)
  • The Favourite – Yorgos Lanthimos (PP O)

Best Actor

  • Christian Bale – Vice (TB O) (TL O)
  • Bradley Cooper – A Star Is Born
  • Willem Dafoe – At Eternity’s Gate
  • Rami Malek – Bohemian Rhapsody (WL O) (PP O)
  • Viggo Mortensen – Green Book

Runners Up

  • Christian Bale – Vice (WL O)
  • Bradley Cooper – A Star Is Born (PP O)
  • Rami Malek – Bohemian Rhapsody (TB O) (TL O)

Best Actress

  • Yalitza Aparicio – Roma
  • Glenn Close – The Wife (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
  • Olivia Colman – The Favourite
  • Lady Gaga – A Star Is Born
  • Melissa McCarthy – Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Runners Up

  • Olivia Colman – The Favourite (WL O) (TL O)
  • Lady Gaga – A Star Is Born (PP O) (TB O)

Best Supporting Actor

  • Mahershala Ali – Green Book (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
  • Adam Driver – BlacKkKlansman
  • Sam Elliott – A Star Is Born
  • Richard E. Grant – Can You Ever Forgive Me?
  • Sam Sam Rockwell – Vice

Runners Up

  • Sam Elliott – A Star Is Born (TB O)
  • Richard E. Grant – Can You Ever Forgive Me? (WL O) (PP O) (TL O)

Best Supporting Actress

  • Amy Adams – Vice
  • Marina de Tavira – Roma
  • Regina King – If Beale Street Could Talk (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
  • Emma Stone – The Favourite
  • Rachel Weisz – The Favourite

Runners Up

  • Amy Adams – Vice (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)

Best Original Screenplay

  • The Favourite (WL O) (TB O) (TL O)
  • First Reformed (PP O)
  • Green Book
  • Roma
  • Vice

Runners Up

  • The Favourite (PP O)
  • First Reformed (WL O)
  • Green Book (TB O) (TL O)

Best Adapted Screenplay

  • The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
  • BlacKkKlansman (TB O)
  • Can You Ever Forgive Me?
  • If Beale Street Could Talk (WL O) (PP O) (TL O)
  • A Star Is Born

Runners Up

  • BlacKkKlansman (TL O)
  • Can You Ever Forgive Me? (WL O) (PP O)
  • If Beale Street Could Talk (TB O)

Best Original Score

  • Black Panther
  • BlacKkKlansman
  • If Beale Street Could Talk (WL O) (TB O) (TL O)
  • Isle of Dogs (PP O)
  • Mary Poppins Returns

Runners Up

  • Black Panther (TB O)
  • Isle of Dogs (WL O)
  • Mary Poppins Returns (PP O) (TL O)

Best Original Song

  • All the Stars – Black Panther
  • I’ll Fight – RBG
  • The Place Where Lost Things Go – Mary Poppins Returns
  • Shallow – A Star Is Born (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
  • When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs for Wings – The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

Runners Up

  • I’ll Fight – RBG (WL O) (TB O) (TL O)
  • The Place Where Lost Things Go – Mary Poppins Returns (PP O)

Best Film Editing

  • BlacKkKlansman (PP O)
  • Bohemian Rhapsody
  • The Favourite
  • Green Book
  • Vice (WL O) (TB O) (TL O)

Runners Up

  • BlacKkKlansman (WL O) (TB O) (TL O)
  • The Favourite (PP O)

Best Cinematography

  • Cold War (PP O)
  • The Favourite
  • Never Look Away
  • Roma (WL O) (TB O) (TL O)
  • A Star Is Born

Runners Up

  • Cold War (WL O) (TB O) (TL O)
  • Never Look Away (PP O)

Best Production Design

  • Black Panther (TB O)
  • The Favourite (PP O) (TL O)
  • First Man
  • Mary Poppins Returns
  • Roma (WL O)

Runners Up

  • The Favourite (TB O)
  • First Man (PP O)
  • Mary Poppins Returns (WL O) (TL O)

Best Costume Design

  • The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
  • Black Panther (WL O) (TB O)
  • The Favourite (PP O) (TL O)
  • Mary Poppins Returns
  • Mary Queen of Scots

Runners Up

  • The Favourite (TB O)
  • Mary Poppins Returns (PP O) (TL O)
  • Mary Queen of Scots (WL O)

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

  • Border
  • Mary Queen of Scots (PP O)
  • Vice (WL O) (TB O) (TL O)

Runners Up

  • Border (TB O)
  • Mary Queen of Scots (WL O) (TL O)
  • Vice (PP O)

Best Sound Mixing

  • Black Panther
  • Bohemian Rhapsody (PP O)
  • First Man (WL O) (TB O)
  • Roma
  • A Star Is Born (TL O)

Runners Up

  • Black Panther (TL O)
  • Bohemian Rhapsody (WL O)
  • Roma (TB O)
  • A Star Is Born (PP O)

Best Sound Editing

  • Black Panther
  • Bohemian Rhapsody
  • First Man (PP O) (TL O)
  • A Quiet Place (WL O) (TB O)
  • Roma

Runners Up

  • First Man (WL O) (TB O)
  • A Quiet Place (PP O) (TL O)

Best Visual Effects

  • Avengers: Infinity War (TB O) (TL O)
  • Christopher Robin
  • First Man (WL O)
  • Ready Player One (PP O)
  • Solo: A Star Wars Story

Runners Up

  • Avengers: Infinity War (WL O)
  • First Man (PP O) (TL O)
  • Ready Player One (TB O)

Best Foreign Language Film

  • Capernaum
  • Cold War
  • Never Look Away
  • Roma (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
  • Shoplifters

Runners Up

  • Cold War (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)

Best Documentary Feature

  • Free Solo
  • Hale County This Morning, This Evening
  • Minding the Gap
  • Of Fathers and Sons (PP O)
  • RBG (WL O) (TB O) (TL O)

Runners Up

  • Free Solo (WL O) (TB O)
  • Minding the Gap (TL O)
  • RBG (PP O)

Best Documentary Short Subject

  • Black Sheep (PP O)
  • End Game (TB O) (TL O)
  • Lifeboat
  • A Night at the Garden
  • Period. End of Sentence. (WL O)

Runners Up

  • Lifeboat (WL O)
  • A Night at the Garden (PP O)
  • Period. End of Sentence. (TB O) (TL O)

Best Animated Short Film

  • Animal Behavior
  • Bao (WL O) (TL O)
  • Late Afternoon (PP O)
  • One Small Step (TB O)
  • Weekends

Runners Up

  • Bao (TB O)
  • Weekends (WL O) (PP O) (TL O)

Best Live-Action Short Film

  • Detainment (TB O)
  • Fauve (WL O) (TL O)
  • Marguerite (PP O)
  • Mother
  • Skin

Runners Up

  • Marguerite (TB O) (TL O)
  • Mother (WL O) (PP O)

2 Comments

Add a Comment
  1. Another nomination no one saw coming was Roma & Bohemian Rapsody for Sound Editing

  2. That was yesterday. Today, I’m wondering why I didn’t predict a win or at least a runner-up spot for Spike Lee. Also, I woke up wondering who all those Ethan Hawke, Lucas Hedges and Ryan Gosling supporters are going to vote for now that their favorite best actor candidate isn’t in the running. I’m thinking it might well be surprise nominee Willem Dafoe, with four nominations the most overdue veteran in the race, who might prove an interesting companion to now presumed front-runner Glenn Close in the best actress race.

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