Although numerous nations have their own national awards, few of those organizations have as much overlap between them and the Academy of Motion Picture Arts & Sciences as the British Academy of Film & Television Arts. In the past, they gave out their prizes after the Oscars, but now they hand them out before and they can either indicate a change in course (such as when Tilda Swinton won the BAFTA award for Michael Clayton over critics frontrunner Amy Ryan (who coincidentally wasn’t nominated at BAFTA)) or they can stay it. We look to these awards to see if certain trends present themselves. For instance, Roma winning would be a boon for that film’s weak frontrunner status at the Oscars while wins by BlacKkKlansman, The Favourite, Green Book, or A Star Is Born could change the narrative dramatically.

BRITISH ACADEMY OF FILM & TELEVISION ARTS AWARDS

Best Film

BlacKkKlansman
The Favourite (Wesley, Thomas, RU:Peter, RU:Tripp)
Green Book
Roma (Peter, Tripp, RU:Wesley, RU:Thomas)
A Star Is Born

Wesley Lovell: BAFTA’s penchant for British actors and productions is very pronounced, but even if they nominate hometown favorites, those favorites seldom win. That said, the reason I put The Favourite in over Roma is that specific hometown advantage. In a close race, tendencies can swing victories and that’s what I suspect will happen here.
Peter J. Patrick: I think BAFTA will join the consensus and vote for Roma here, with the homegrown The Favourite prevailing in Best British Film.
Tripp Burton: Will the Brits go with one of their own with The Favourite, or will they join the pack and make Roma even more of a front-runner. I’m guessing that Roma takes this, but it is a close race.
Thomas LaTourette: I wonder if The Favourite might knock Roma off its winning streak. Probably not, but I will go for it anyway.

Best Animated Film

Incredibles 2 (RU:Wesley, RU:Thomas)
Isle of Dogs (RU:Peter, RU:Tripp)
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, Thomas)

Wesley Lovell: It would be a bit of a shock if BAFTA went against current wisdom, which gives Spider-Man the advantage here.
Peter J. Patrick: Here comes Spider-Man over the Isle of Dogs.
Tripp Burton: Spider-Man leads in every race this year.
Thomas LaTourette: Spider-Man should comfortably win.

Best Director

BlacKkKlansman – Spike Lee (RU:Thomas)
Cold War – Pawel Pawlikowski
The Favourite – Yorgos Lanthimos (RU:Wesley, RU:Peter, RU:Tripp)
Roma – Alfonso Cuaron (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, Thomas)
A Star Is Born – Bradley Cooper

Wesley Lovell: Although Roma‘s Oscar chance at Best Picture hangs by a thread, Alfonso Cuaron has been dominating the awards season, so he should have no trouble winning here. However, watch out for Yorgos Lanthimos as this group might see the two categories as inextricably tied.
Peter J. Patrick: Same as with Best Film, Roma‘s Cuaron takes it over The Favourite‘s Lanthimos.
Tripp Burton: Alfonso Cuaron has picked up most every award there is, and I don’t see BAFTA changing that.
Thomas LaTourette: Cuaron will probably win, but do not count out Lee.

Best Actor

Christian Bale – Vice (RU:Wesley, RU:Tripp, RU:Thomas)
Steve Coogan – Stan & Ollie
Bradley Cooper – A Star Is Born
Rami Malek – Bohemian Rhapsody (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, Thomas)
Viggo Mortensen – Green Book (RU:Peter)

Wesley Lovell: While he’s a soft frontrunner at the Oscars, Rami Malek’s chief competition, Christian Bale, has the detriment of appearing in a film that’s highly US-centric. BAFTA voters tend to ignore films that are too nationalistic, at least when it comes to the U.S. And since Rami Malek is playing a legendary Brit, he has the advantage.
Peter J. Patrick: Rami Malek seems like the clear favorite here, with Viggo Mortensen as likely as anyone to come in second.
Tripp Burton: Rami Malek seems to be our front-runner this season, but BAFTA might enjoy Bale’s swipe at America a little more.
Thomas LaTourette: I think Malek will have the edge here over Bale, though if Bale wins it probably means he gets the Oscar too.

Best Actress

Glenn Close – The Wife (Wesley, Peter, Thomas, RU:Tripp)
Olivia Colman – The Favourite (Tripp, RU:Wesley, RU:Peter, RU:Thomas)
Viola Davis – Widows
Lady Gaga – A Star Is Born
Melissa McCarthy – Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Wesley Lovell: In another case where hometown favoritism could change the tide (think Tilda Swinton’s two other BAFTA wins that didn’t correlate to Oscar), Olivia Colman could have a slight edge with this group. That said, Glenn Close is a legend to everyone and if she’s to win the Oscar, a win here would be solidifying.
Peter J. Patrick: BAFTA has nominated Glenn Close just once before, but it’s her time. Sorry, Olivia.
Tripp Burton: Will Glenn Close be stopped here by the hometown favourite? I think so, but it’s a close race.
Thomas LaTourette: In what will be a close race, I predict Close will triumph over Colman, but would not be surprised if it goes the other way. If Close wins, she can start working on her Oscar acceptance speech now.

Best Supporting Actor

Mahershala Ali – Green Book (Peter, Tripp, Thomas, RU:Wesley)
Timothée Chalamet – Beautiful Boy
Adam Driver – BlacKkKlansman
Richard E. Grant – Can You Ever Forgive Me? (Wesley, RU:Peter, RU:Tripp, RU:Thomas)
Sam Rockwell – Vice

Wesley Lovell: While Mahershala Ali has been dominating the late precursor season, this is the one group I can see going with Richard E. Grant over him. While Grant was born in Swaziland, he is unabashedly British, which means these voters are far more familiar with him than Ali. Ali is a native Californian, but lost this award for Moonlight in spite of later winning the Oscar. That Green Book is also a distinctly American narrative, this group might not feel as obliged to honor him. Either he wins because they feel he should have won two years ago or they go with hometown boy Grant.
Peter J. Patrick: Ali or Grant, Grant or Ali, but probably Ali with a slight edge over Grant.
Tripp Burton: At this point, there’s no stopping the Mahershala Ali train.
Thomas LaTourette: Ali will probably continue his winning ways here, though Grant could be an upset winner.

Best Supporting Actress

Amy Adams – Vice (RU:Thomas)
Claire Foy – First Man (Peter, Tripp)
Margot Robbie – Mary Queen of Scots (Thomas)
Emma Stone – The Favourite (RU:Wesley)
Rachel Weisz – The Favourite (Wesley, RU:Peter, RU:Tripp)

Wesley Lovell: With Oscar frontrunner Regina King out of the running here, the category becomes a five-woman free-for-all where numerous factors work against each of the nominees. In those situations, I will go for the Brit. There are two to choose from (Robbie’s Australian, which might work against her): Claire Foy and Rachel Weisz. Neither have a BAFTA film award, Weisz lost the category she won at the Oscars back in 2005. That could give her the advantage. Further, First Man is about the moon landing, a culturally significant event, but she’s playing American. I suspect Weisz will probably win, but there are nothing would surprise me with this category.
Peter J. Patrick: The smart money seems to be on Rachel Weisz, but I’m going to look for an upset here with Claire Foy taking it.
Tripp Burton: This is a weird category, and any of them could win, but I’m putting my money on British favorite Claire Foy sneaking a win here.
Thomas LaTourette: I wonder if Robbie might win over the others for the British drama The Favourite. Otherwise it might go to Adams

Best Original Screenplay

Cold War (RU:Tripp)
The Favourite (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, Thomas)
Green Book (RU:Peter, RU:Thomas)
Roma (RU:Wesley)
Vice

Wesley Lovell: Among these nominees, The Favourite should be titularly expressive. I could see Green Book, Roma, or Vice winning as well, but that would depend on their overall strength in other races, especially Best Picture.
Peter J. Patrick: They’ll probably go with the homegrown The Favourite over Green Book on this one.
Tripp Burton: This seems solidly in The Favourite’s camp, and could help it get to an Oscar win.
Thomas LaTourette: The British made The Favourite will probably win over the more American features.

Best Adapted Screenplay

BlacKkKlansman (Peter, Tripp, RU:Thomas)
Can You Ever Forgive Me? (Thomas, RU:Wesley)
First Man
If Beale Street Could Talk (Wesley, RU:Peter, RU:Tripp)
A Star Is Born

Wesley Lovell: This could be our best indication of whether BlacKkKlansman can pull off an upset victory for Spike Lee’s screenplay over the season awards leader If Beale Street Could Talk. While Beale is the better screenplay, this season has shown little love for the film and if Lee wins here, the Oscar is probably his.
Peter J. Patrick: This is another close one with BlackKklansman taking it over If Beale Street Could Talk.
Tripp Burton: BlackKklansman played surprisingly well with the BAFTAs, and this is their chance to get Spike Lee on stage.
Thomas LaTourette: I could see Can You Ever Forgive Me? prevailing over both BlacKkKlansman and Beale Street.

Best Original Music

BlacKkKlansman
If Beale Street Could Talk (Wesley, Peter, Thomas)
Isle of Dogs (RU:Peter, RU:Tripp)
Mary Poppins Returns (Tripp, RU:Wesley, RU:Thomas)
A Star Is Born

Wesley Lovell: The film that has won the most awards this season in this category will likely pull off the win this year. If Beale Street Could Talk is that film, but if the film is truly anathema as other groups and nominations have proved late in the season, it could go to any of the others with the Sherman Brothers-inspired Mary Poppins Returns coming out on top.
Peter J. Patrick: It could be any one of the nominees, but If Beale Street Could Talk seems like as good a choice as any.
Tripp Burton: Will British love for Mary Poppins prevail here? Possibly, but any of these could win.
Thomas LaTourette: I expect the cello heavy work of Beale Street should win.

Best Editing

Bohemian Rhapsody (RU:Wesley)
The Favourite (Wesley, Tripp, RU:Peter, RU:Thomas)
First Man (Peter, Thomas)
Roma
Vice (RU:Tripp)

Wesley Lovell: Now that we’ve seen Bohemain Rhapsody win the ACE award (alongside The Favourite), it becomes a contender when it didn’t feel like one previously. That said, both films have a hometown advantage, so it could go either way. I lean towards The Favourite as it’s likely leading the Best Film race, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Bohemian triumphed.
Peter J. Patrick: The technically precise First Man should take this, but don’t count out The Favourite.
Tripp Burton: No idea how this goes. It is a free-for-all in this category this year.
Thomas LaTourette: The non-Oscar nominated First Man should prevail.

Best Cinematography

Bohemian Rhapsody
Cold War (RU:Wesley, RU:Tripp, RU:Thomas)
The Favourite (RU:Peter)
First Man
Roma (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, Thomas)

Wesley Lovell: If there’s a crack in Roma‘s dominance of this category, we’ll see it here, though I cannot imagine anything else winning.
Peter J. Patrick: Score another one for Roma over The Favourite.
Tripp Burton: It’s the battle of the black-and-white, and Roma has every advantage.
Thomas LaTourette: It would not surprise me if one of the black-and-white films wins, with Roma being the favorite.

Best Production Design

Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (RU:Thomas)
The Favourite (Wesley, Tripp, Thomas, RU:Peter)
First Man
Mary Poppins Returns (Peter, RU:Wesley, RU:Tripp)
Roma

Wesley Lovell: The ADG award suggests The Favourite is the favorite. Mary Poppins is the only other one of these I could see BAFTA going for.
Peter J. Patrick: I see this as a toss-up between Mary Poppins Returns and The Favourite.
Tripp Burton: The BAFTAs did love The Favourite.
Thomas LaTourette: The Favourite had sumptuous sets and should win.

Best Costume Design

The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
Bohemian Rhapsody
The Favourite (Wesley, Tripp, Thomas)
Mary Poppins Returns (RU:Peter, RU:Thomas)
Mary Queen of Scots (Peter, RU:Wesley, RU:Tripp)

Wesley Lovell: Mark another one down for The Favourite, though its nearer time period might hinder its chances against the Elizabethan Mary Queen of Scots.
Peter J. Patrick: Mary vs. Mary, but which one wins? Probably the fancier Mary Queen of Scots.
Tripp Burton: It’s between the royals, and The Favourite is the much more popular film.
Thomas LaTourette: It feels like one of the real period dramas should win here. I’m guessing the older work of The Favourite might beat out Mary Poppins Returns.

Best Makeup & Hair

Bohemian Rhapsody
The Favourite (Peter, RU:Wesley, RU:Thomas)
Mary Queen of Scots (RU:Peter)
Stan & Ollie (Tripp)
Vice (Wesley, Thomas, RU:Tripp)

Wesley Lovell: Vice, for all its liabilities, is still the leader in this category thanks to its convincing makeup transforming several actors into solid facsimiles of their political counterparts. That said, non-Oscar nominee The Favourite could have a chance, as could Bohemian Rhapsody. The dark horse, though, is Academy Award-nominated Mary Queen of Scots.
Peter J. Patrick: Probably one of the two costume dramas with The Favourite prevailing.
Tripp Burton: In the battle of prosthetics, the more British-centric Stan & Ollie seems a likelier bet.
Thomas LaTourette: Vice did have amazing makeup and could win. Both Mary Queen of Scots and The Favourite also have impressive hair styling, so one of them might sneak in.

Best Sound

Bohemian Rhapsody (RU:Wesley)
First Man (Peter, Tripp, RU:Thomas)
Mission: Impossible
A Quiet Place (Wesley, RU:Peter, RU:Tripp)
A Star Is Born (Thomas)

Wesley Lovell: I really hope that A Quiet Place triumphs here, but any of the others probably stand a better shot since it’s not the kind of film “serious” voters would honor.
Peter J. Patrick: The sound of space vs. the sounds of a world on the precipice. First Man wins.
Tripp Burton: I think the Brits will like First Man more than the Academy does.
Thomas LaTourette: I’m thinking the concert heavy A Star Is Born might beat out First Man.

Best Special Visual Effects

Avengers: Infinity War
Black Panther (Tripp)
Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (RU:Thomas)
First Man (Wesley, Thomas, RU:Peter, RU:Tripp)
Ready Player One (Peter, RU:Wesley)

Wesley Lovell: There’s a lot of effects here, though the one I’m predicting also happens to be the most subtle. First Man would continue a long tradition of space-based movies winning, but any of the others could triumph as well.
Peter J. Patrick: The visual effects of Ready Player One were near-genius. It should win here.
Tripp Burton: This is the only place they can vote for Black Panther, so look for it to win.
Thomas LaTourette: First Man seems more like what they would pick.

Best Film Not in the English Language

Capernaum
Cold War (Peter, RU:Wesley, RU:Tripp, RU:Thomas)
Dogman
Roma (Wesley, Tripp, Thomas, RU:Peter)
Shoplifters

Wesley Lovell: It’s dominated all season and is the only film on this list with a Best Film nomination. Roma likely wins this one in a walk.
Peter J. Patrick: Time to let something other than Roma win something – give it to Cold War.
Tripp Burton: Roma is the all but certain winner, but hometown love for Cold War could help.
Thomas LaTourette: Roma has swept everything on this side of the Atlantic, so it would not surprise me if it does well over there too.

Best Documentary

Free Solo (Peter, RU:Wesley)
McQueen
RBG
They Shall Not Grow Old (Tripp, Thomas)
Three Identical Strangers (Wesley, RU:Peter, RU:Tripp, RU:Thomas)

Wesley Lovell: Will they go with one of the pair of Oscar nominees (Free Solo or RBG)? Or one of the others. RBG likely loses because of its natively American subject matter. I could see any of these winning, though, so Three Identical Strangers is more of a guess than anything.
Peter J. Patrick: The majestic Free Solo should take this one with Three Identical Strangers poised to upset.
Tripp Burton: This category is so weird this year all across the board, and the British-centric Peter Jackson documentary should prevail here.
Thomas LaTourette: The non-Oscar nominated They Shall Not Grow Old is a stunning film and should win.

Best British Film

Beast
Bohemian Rhapsody (RU:Wesley, RU:Peter, RU:Tripp, RU:Thomas)
The Favourite (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, Thomas)
McQueen
Stan & Ollie
You Were Never Really Here

Wesley Lovell: The sole Best Picture nominee of this bunch should handily win. The big question is whether BAFTA voters will pick the film in both places or not. If they pick it here, Best Film could go somewhere else. If it wins Best Film, Bohemian Rhapsody could benefit.
Peter J. Patrick: I think The Favourite is likely, but watch out for the enormous popularity of Bohemian Rhapsody.
Tripp Burton: Most-nominated film The Favourite is a shoo-in here.
Thomas LaTourette: This is between the arthouse pick The Favourite and the box office champion Bohemian Rhapsody, and I’ll give the edge to The Favourite.

Best British Short Animation

I’m OK (Wesley, Peter)
Marfa (Tripp, Thomas, RU:Wesley, RU:Peter)
Roughhouse (RU:Tripp, RU:Thomas)

Wesley Lovell: I have absolutely no clue, so I based my selection on name only.
Peter J. Patrick: I have no idea, just taking a wild guess.
Tripp Burton: Pure guess.
Thomas LaTourette: Purely a guess.

Best British Short Film

73 Cows (Tripp, RU:Thomas)
Bachelor, 38 (Peter, Thomas)
The Blue Door (RU:Wesley, RU:Peter, RU:Tripp)
The Field
Wale (Wesley)

Wesley Lovell: Although it wasn’t nominated for the Oscar, Wale is the only one of these five that was on the Academy’s shortlist. Whether the rest were eligible or not, I don’t know. That’s why I chose it to win. Though, anything really could happen as it often does.
Peter J. Patrick: Again, no idea, your guess is as good as mine.
Tripp Burton: Pure guess.
Thomas LaTourette: Also a guess.

Outstanding British Debut

Apostasy – Daniel Kokotajlo (Writer/Director)
Beast – Michael Pearce (Writer/Director), Lauren Dark (Producer) (Wesley, Tripp, Thomas, RU:Peter)
A Cambodian Spring – Chris Kelly (Writer/Director/Producer) (Peter, RU:Wesley)
Pili – Leanne Welham (Writer/Director), Sophie Harmon (Producer)
Ray & Liz – Richard Billingham (Writer/Director), Jacqui Davies (Producer) (RU:Tripp, RU:Thomas)

Wesley Lovell: Beast is the only of these titles nominated for Best British Film, which I think gives it the advantage. A surprise could ccur those as most of these films aren’t terribly familiar to American audiences and might be of regional taste/appreciation.
Peter J. Patrick: I really have no idea on this one, just guessing A Cambodian Spring over Beast.
Tripp Burton: Beast has the Best British Film nomination, which should put it ahead here.
Thomas LaTourette: Mostly guessing here too.

Rising Star Award (Previously Announced)

Jessie Buckley
Cynthia Erivo (Peter, Thomas)
Barry Keoghan (RU:Wesley, RU:Thomas)
Lakeith Stanfield
Letitia Wright (Wesley, RU:Peter)

Wesley Lovell: This award is voted on by the public. Letitia Wright is the only one of this list that was in a massively successful/popular blockbuster, which could give her the edge. Any of the others could as well, so I wouldn’t be shocked.
Peter J. Patrick: Another one I’m going to predict an upset for, with Cynthia Erivo besting Lilitia Wright.
Tripp Burton: (no predictions or commentary provided)
Thomas LaTourette: Purely guesses as well.