2018 Precursor Predictions: Golden Globe Awards

Sunday, the Hollywood Foreign Press Association will present their annual Golden Globe Awards honoring the best of the year (2018) in film and television. The television portion isn’t nearly as hotly anticipated as the film side of things, which is what we’re most interested in.

There are a lot of potential winners this weekend and while we have a lot of differing outcomes in our predictions, we have several unified winner predictions, a few unified runner-up predictions, and even a unified winner/runner-up set. Here are our predictions in each category along with a little bit of commentary.

GOLDEN GLOBE AWARDS

Best Picture, Drama

Black Panther (RU:Wesley, RU:Thomas)
BlacKkKlansman (RU:Tripp)
Bohemian Rhapsody (RU:Peter)
If Beale Street Could Talk
A Star Is Born (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, Thomas)

Wesley Lovell: None of these films genuinely feel like they could take A Star Is Born on and win. Two are too small and two are too big. One has a Lady Gaga in it and that’s just enough starpower for these folks.
Peter J. Patrick: The Globes are likely to go with the flow and award the highly successful fourth version of A Star Is Born, but they could throw a curve and reward the popular if critically derided Bohemian Rhapsody.
Tripp Burton: A Star is Born seems like the glossy sort of hit that the Globes love to embrace, with big stars, but they could also jump on the Black Panther train and shake things up a lot in this race.
Thomas LaTourette: A Star Is Born will trounce the competition. Spike Lee’s BlacKkKlansman or even Black Panther might make a play, but I doubt it.

Best Picture, Comedy/Musical

Crazy Rich Asians
The Favourite (Thomas, RU:Wesley, RU:Tripp)
Green Book (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, RU:Thomas)
Mary Poppins Returns (RU:Peter)
Vice

Wesley Lovell: While Green Book is really a small film compared to two of the others on this list, I can see the sentimentalists at the HFPA going for Green Book over the more critically well celebrated The Favourite.
Peter J. Patrick: Vice received the most nominations but that was before the mostly negative reviews came out. They’re more likely to go with something a bit warmer like Green Book or even Mary Poppins Returns.
Tripp Burton: Green Book seems like the sort of film the Globes over-award, but the internationally flavored The Favourite seems more like their cup of tea. Don’t count out nominations leader Vice, though.
Thomas LaTourette: This should be an interesting competition between Green Book and The Favourite. I am guessing that the more fun and easier to digest Green Book will prevail, but could imagine The Favourite sneaking in for a win.

Best Picture, Animated

Incredibles 2 (RU:Wesley, RU:Tripp)
Isle of Dogs (Thomas, RU:Peter)
Mirai
Ralph Breaks the Internet
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, RU:Thomas)

Wesley Lovell: Spider-Man has won almost everything so far, but never count out the HFPA’s penchant for wildly popular and Incredibles 2 dwarfs all other animated films at this year’s box office.
Peter J. Patrick: The highly inventive Spider-Man movie or the even more inventive Isle of Dogs should prevail here.
Tripp Burton: I’m guessing the HFPA doesn’t embrace the mainstream but puts Wes Andersen up on the podium.
Thomas LaTourette: Sequels often do not win, so I will give the edge to Spider-Man, but would not be surprised if Incredibles 2 manages to pull out the win.

Best Director

A Star Is Born – Bradley Cooper (Wesley, Peter, Thomas, RU:Tripp)
Roma – Alfonso Cuaron (Tripp, RU:Wesley)
Green Book – Peter Farrelly
BlacKkKlansman – Spike Lee (RU:Peter, RU:Thomas)
Vice – Adam McKay

Wesley Lovell: While I’m tempted to go with the very international Alfonso Cuaron, Bradley Cooper is a genuine star and his debut has been well celebrated. Further, he’s going to lose Best Actor to Rami Malek, so I can see them awarding him here as a result.
Peter J. Patrick: Here’s where they’re most likely to honor Bradley Cooper, but they could pull a surprise and give the award to veteran Spike Lee.
Tripp Burton: The Globes like to get a star on the stage at every turn.
Thomas LaTourette: If I were awarding this, I could give it to either Peter Farrelly for Green Book or Spike Lee for BlacKkKlansman, but I do not expect either of them to win. Alfonso Cuaron appears to be the odds on favorite for Roma, a movie I just did not get. The only person who could conceivably upset him would be Bradley Cooper for his directorial debut with A Star Is Born. There were enough issues with his directing that I do not expect him to win, so it will go to Cuaron.

Best Actor, Drama

Bradley Cooper – A Star Is Born (RU:Wesley, RU:Peter, RU:Tripp, RU:Thomas)
Willem Dafoe – At Eternity’s Gate
Lucas Hedges – Boy Erased
Rami Malek – Bohemian Rhapsody (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, Thomas)
John David Washington – BlacKkKlansman

Wesley Lovell: Rami Malek has been a consistent presence this awards season even if he hasn’t really dominated the awards circuit. With his big, bold performance in Bohemian Rhapsody, it really is HFPA bait.
Peter J. Patrick: If Cooper doesn’t take Best Director he could prevail here, but Rami Malek’s impersonation of Freddie Mercury in Bohemian Rhapsody seems more likely with the Globe.
Tripp Burton: There are other ways the Globes can award Bradley Cooper, and the Globes surprised us with their love of Bohemian Rhapsody, so Rami Malek should win here.
Thomas LaTourette: Playing a real life person should help Rami Malek win this, though the top two in this drama category play singers. Bradley Cooper will give him strong competition and may win, but I think it will be Malek.

Best Actress, Drama

Glenn Close – The Wife (Peter, RU:Tripp)
Lady Gaga – A Star Is Born (Wesley, Tripp, Thomas, RU:Peter)
Nicole Kidman – Destroyer
Melissa McCarthy – Can You Ever Forgive Me? (RU:Wesley, RU:Thomas)
Rosamund Pike – A Private War

Wesley Lovell: Lady Gaga is a megawatt star and they will reward her over the better reviewed fellow nominees.
Peter J. Patrick: They’ve given an acting award to Lady Gaga for her TV work before so may not feel obligated to do it again, which bodes well for Glenn Close who has won twice for TV work but never for her film work.
Tripp Burton: The Globes have never shied away from nominating debuts, or music stars making acting appearances, so I expect Lady Gaga to be up on the stage.
Thomas LaTourette: Lady Gaga looks to have this one sewed up, though she should have a more difficult time at the Oscars. If anyone can upset her it would be Glenn Close for The Wife.

Best Actor, Comedy/Musical

Christian Bale – Vice (Wesley, Thomas, RU:Tripp)
Lin-Manuel Miranda – Mary Poppins Returns
Viggo Mortensen – Green Book (Peter, Tripp, RU:Wesley, RU:Thomas)
Robert Redford – The Old Man & the Gun
John C. Reilly – Stan & Ollie (RU:Peter)

Wesley Lovell: This is a tough call. Christian Bale is popular and delivers a strong, oft-recognized performance, but so too does Viggo Mortensen who stars in their likely Comedy/Musical winner. I could see it going either way, but I’m leaning towards the Bale.
Peter J. Patrick: Viggo Mortensen on his fourth nomination should be the favorite here, but the Globes’ penchant for surprises could manifest itself in a win for three-time nominee John C. Reilly as Oliver Hardy.
Tripp Burton: This is a coin flip between Bale and Mortensen, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see either up on the stage.
Thomas LaTourette: This is a difficult category to predict as the top two performances are wonderful yet very different. I will give the edge to Viggo Mortenson just because there was a bit more humor in it and he was almost unrecognizable in Green Book. That said, Christian Bale was absolutely unrecognizable as Dick Cheney. I just did not like the movie as much, so I’ll go with Mortenson.

Best Actress, Comedy/Musical

Emily Blunt – Mary Poppins Returns (Wesley, RU:Peter, RU:Tripp, RU:Thomas)
Olivia Colman – The Favourite (Peter, Tripp, Thomas, RU:Wesley)
Elsie Fisher – Eighth Grade
Charlize Theron – Tully
Constance Wu – Crazy Rich Asians

Wesley Lovell: I would like to say that Olivia Colman is a sure thing, but this award is a battle between Colman and Emily Blunt. Blunt’s performance is big, bold, and musically comedic. Colman’s is dramatically comedic, which could help her, but history suggests Blunt may have the edge.
Peter J. Patrick: Not a lot of options here with former TV winner Olivia Colman’s acclaimed performance the likely winner over previous TV winner Emily Blunt on her sixth nomination.
Tripp Burton: This is a close race, but I’m guessing that the critical darling might win this one.
Thomas LaTourette: Olivia Colman should easily win for her performance as Queen Anne in The Favourite. The only person who could come close to unseating her is Emily Blunt, but I just do not see that happening. Colman’s dominating performance wins.

Best Supporting Actor

Mahershala Ali – Green Book (Tripp, Thomas, RU:Peter)
Timothée Chalamet – Beautiful Boy
Adam Driver – BlacKkKlansman (RU:Wesley, RU:Thomas)
Richard E. Grant – Can You Ever Forgive Me? (Wesley, Peter, RU:Tripp)
Sam Rockwell – Vice

Wesley Lovell: Richard E. Grant has won almost everything out there, second only to the likes of Ethan Hawke and Regina King in terms of awards recognition. He has solid competition, but if the voters actually watch the film, they will be blown away by his performance and I think he’ll sail to victory.
Peter J. Patrick: This is a tough one. Richard E. Grant would seem to be the popular critical choice, but Mahershala Ali might seem owed by the Globes having lost here two years ago.
Tripp Burton: This is a guess. Any of these five could win and I would be both shocked and unsurprised. This is a weird category.
Thomas LaTourette: This is another close race and I could see either Ali or Grant winning it. Grant may have been funnier in his role, but I imagine that his film was less seen.

Best Supporting Actress

Amy Adams – Vice (RU:Tripp, RU:Thomas)
Claire Foy – First Man (RU:Peter)
Regina King – If Beale Street Could Talk (Peter, Tripp, RU:Wesley)
Emma Stone – The Favourite (Wesley)
Rachel Weisz – The Favourite (Thomas)

Wesley Lovell: While Regina King is winning nearly everything in sight, her film isn’t exactly a strong contender with this group, being far more intimate. Claire Foy, Amy Adams, and Emma Stone are all much more familiar names and Weisz is no stranger to the voters. That said, I think Emma Stone’s performance, which has been cited frequently as more of a lead than the others in the film could benefit from the slightly larger screen time and her near-universal name recognition.
Peter J. Patrick: The popular Regina King has never won a Globe before and seems poised to add to her haul of other awards here with former Globe winner Claire Foy a possible upset.
Tripp Burton: This could be a chance for the Globes to give an award to Vice, their nominations leader, but I’m gonna go out on a limb and say that Rachel Weisz surprises everyone here in a very muddled race.
Thomas LaTourette: Regina King looks to be the frontrunner, even as her Oscar possibilities falter. Claire Foy from First Man probably has no shot. The two women from The Favourite will probably knock each other out of the winner’s circle. Which leaves Amy Adams as the steel behind the throne of Vice who might take King out to win.

Best Screenplay

The Favourite (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, RU:Thomas)
Green Book (RU:Wesley, RU:Peter, RU:Tripp)
If Beale Street Could Talk
Roma
Vice (Thomas)

Wesley Lovell: The Favourite is a sublime feat of writing and that could benefit it greatly here. However, the HFPA isn’t always known for picking the best, which could give room for Green Book or Roma to come from behind and win. I also have a suspicion that If Beale Street Could Talk could be a dark horse contender.
Peter J. Patrick: This could be another win for Green Book, but is more likely to go to the highly literate and inventive script for The Favourite.
Tripp Burton: I don’t know what is going to happen here, and there are always a lot of screenplay surprises with the HFPA.
Thomas LaTourette: The Favourite should win, but both Green Book and Vice will definitely be in the mix and could cause an upset.

Best Original Score

Black Panther (Peter)
First Man (Thomas, RU:Wesley, RU:Tripp)
Isle of Dogs
Mary Poppins Returns (Wesley, Tripp, RU:Peter, RU:Thomas)
A Quiet Place

Wesley Lovell: It’s hard to know with this group where they might go. They have made some off-the-wall selections here, so nothing is out and nothing is safe. Still, the musical of the bunch, Mary Poppins Returns, is just the kind of film the HFPA voters love. I could also see any of the others winning.
Peter J. Patrick: This could go to Mary Poppins Returns, but I see this as the category in which to throw a bone to box-office champion Black Panther.
Tripp Burton: The HFPA makes lots of surprising choices in this category, and I’m guessing they will go with the forgotten First Man this season.
Thomas LaTourette: Mary Poppins probably will win this award even though the Sherman Brothers original was far more memorable even though it did not win the Golden Globe. Its major competition is First Man.

Best Song

All the Stars – Black Panther (RU:Wesley, RU:Tripp)
Girl in the Movies – Dumplin’ (RU:Thomas)
Requiem for a Private War – A Private War
Revelation – Boy Erased (RU:Peter)
Shallow – A Star Is Born (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, Thomas)

Wesley Lovell: A second opportunity to recognize Gaga? Yes, please.
Peter J. Patrick: As sure as anything this year, this one will go to Lady Gaga and her co-writers for their song from A Star Is Born with the song from Boy Erased the most likely beneficiary of an upset.
Tripp Burton: Another easy win for Lady Gaga.
Thomas LaTourette: The song from A Star Is Born should easily best the competition, especially as the other songs come from mostly obscure movies.

Best Foreign Language Film

Capernaum – Lebanon (RU:Thomas)
Girl – Belgium
Never Look Away – Germany (RU:Peter)
Roma – Mexico (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, Thomas)
Shoplifters – Japan (RU:Wesley, RU:Tripp)

Wesley Lovell: The film of the year (by all precursor accounts), not eligible in both foreign and drama categories, is certain to win this award because it won’t win in many other places.
Peter J. Patrick: In all likelihood this will go to Roma, but all the entries here are strong, so any one of them could upset with the German entry as likely as any.
Tripp Burton: One of the easiest choices of the night. Roma should sweep this category this year.
Thomas LaTourette: Roma is the darling of the moment and will win. Shoplifters was odd, but stayed with me more, so I wonder if it could have that effect on voters. Probably not, so Roma wins. Those are the only two I have seen, so I am guessing that it will come down to one of them as they have had the larger release thus far.

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  1. Hello, I’ve been sending emails regarding this years ballots for the OFTAS, I haven’t receive the links yet

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