Let’s take a look back at our prior preview and see where we were right, wrong, and everything in between.

January 5, 2018

Insidious: The Last Key

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $45 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Adequate. The original film and the third made just over $50 million, but the second topped $80. While the reason for sequels is the success of a predecessor, the drop back to normal on the third film suggests the franchise is losing steam. While I doubt it will be an outright flop, the prior films all released later in the year. This early in the year won’t likely help the bottom line.”
Box Office Results: $67.3 M
Thoughts: [Minor Success] Horror has a long history of sequels and this series has been a popular one, hence more sequels. However, this film’s performance is modest at best, on par with most non-series horror starts, which might still suggest another sequel or prequel is coming, but this has been promised to be the last.

January 12, 2018

The Commuter

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $80 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. Attempting to replicate the success of films like Taken and Non-Stop, Liam Neeson is in yet another thriller yarn. This time, the concept is a bit fresher, which could help its bottom line. That there’s so little competition on the horizon, it could do quite well.”
Box Office Results: $36.3 M
Thoughts: [Flop] Not everything that Liam Neeson stars in turns to gold and this derivative-looking action film just couldn’t spark interest with audiences.

Condorito: La Pelicula

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $2 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. A Spanish-language animated film will be a tough sell considering few audiences really seem to go for animated films produced outside the majors. And considering how Hayao Miyazaki performed, and he’s the most acclaimed foreigner animator in history, I wouldn’t expect much from this one.”
Box Office Results: $0.448 M
Thoughts: [Flop] This animated film had almost no American advertisements and came and went without the least bit of interest.

Paddington 2

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $100 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. The original film made a surprising $76 million after being dumped by Weinstein. Now, it’s been acquired by Warner Bros. who knows how to market this kind of film. With the good will the original received, this one could be a solid hit.”
Box Office Results: $40.4 M
Thoughts: [Minor Flop] The first film was a surprise hit, but this one severely underperformed suggesting that the early-year release was the biggest stumbling block. A holiday release might have bolstered its chances.

Proud Mary

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $75 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. The trailer was engaging, but two thrillers so close together might result in a cannibalizing of the market. Yet, this film, if marketed right, could be a hit on its own.”
Box Office Results: $20.9 M
Thoughts: [Flop] It’s easy to be disappointed when a film doesn’t quite turn out the way you expected and that’s how Proud Mary managed to turn a promising trailer into a flop.

January 19, 2018

12 Strong

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $55 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. Although this type of film has done well in the past, the last film to release in this window with the same profile only managed $52 million. With Chris Hemsworth in the lead, it could prove more popular.”
Box Office Results: $45.5 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] Trying to use patriotism as a draw for audiences doesn’t necessarily work when the film in question looks like a cheesy effort.

Den of Thieves

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $40 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. The purpose of this bank heist film is obviously to bring audiences to the theater and looking at the heist from two different perspectives could be interesting. However, the trailer was utterly lackluster and there’s no one in the film that could be considered a box office draw suggesting it will likely hit tough times when released.”
Box Office Results: $44.9 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] It’s hard to know what the point of this film was and being dumped in January suggests that there was no faith in it. The film did better than expected, but not that well.

Forever My Girl

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Poor. While I’m sure the film will have an original song or two in it, I suspect the film’s early release will push it towards being forgotten.”
Oscar Results: Uncertain. There’s still the distant possibility that the film is remembered for the Original Song category, I suspect that 11 months will be enough to wipe this one from memory.
Box Office Prospects: $25 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. Romantic adaptations are sometimes popular, often not. Mix that with a country theme, which has seldom been successful at the modern box office and you have a film that has “flop” written all over it.”
Box Office Results: $16.4 M
Thoughts: [Flop] Yet another romantic adaptation that failed to find an audience. Hollywood needs to stop trying to make these happen, because there have been more flops than successes at this point.

The Leisure Seeker (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $5 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. With this kind of movie, it’s almost impossible to tell if it will translate well to a wide release or will perform modestly at the specialty box office. Appealing leads in an adult-centricstory could help bolster its profile, but the limited release may hinder its potential success.”
Box Office Results: $3.1 M (STILL IN LIMITED RELEASE)
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] With minimal advertising and a specialty box office push, the film performed well enough, but it didn’t become any kind of breakout hit.

January 26, 2018

Maze Runner: The Death Cure

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $65 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Decent. The first film in this series made $102 million in its initial run. The sequel pulled in $81 million. The third film faces an additional problem, namely that of a three-year span between it and the prior film. The first two only had a year’s gap. It could still do well with the fans of the series, but I doubt it performs quite up to its expectations.”
Box Office Results: $58 M
Thoughts: [Minor Flop] After an auspicious start, this franchise managed to fade fast in its second outing and then an on-set accident delayed the film further, putting it too far removed from the prior films and resulting in a lackluster run at the box office.

White Boy Rick

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results:
Box Office Prospects: $15 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. Matthew McConaughey is one of those actors who struggles to find an audience. When he’s in films by major names, he does incredibly well, but when he’s in movies directed by minor personalities, he does less well. This film is releasing at the wrong time and sounds more like Gold than Wolf of Wall Street.”
Box Office Results: N/A
Thoughts: Release date pushed back to September.