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And there you have the full list of Oscar nominees. The Shape of Water, failing to get an expected Visual Effects nomination, falls one shy of tying the record. With 13 nominations, however, the film becomes the most nominated R-Rated film in history. Some of the big surprises this year: Martin McDonagh fails to carry over to Oscar, putting into doubt Three Billboads‘ run to Best Picture. Below the line was fairly stable in terms of predictions, but a couple of major upsets showed up in the top categories, including Denzel Washington beating out James Franco for a nomination, the Call Me by Your Name actors failing to place in Supporting Actor, and Phantom Thread performing far better thane xpected.

The Animated Feature category is all kinds of terrible, though the indie films survived the new rules set. Original Song isn’t much better with the absence of “Evermore” from Beauty and the Beast. Blade Runner 2049 missing Original Score is my biggest peeve of the morning. Another shock came with the Documentary Feature announcement when Jane failed to earn a nomination in spite of being the year’s most acclaimed documentary. Expect another round of How Do We Stop This From Happening in the documentary branch. While disappointing, it’s not surprising that In a Heartbeat was left off the animation list, but Cradle missing is a bit surprising. Both were better than some of those nominated.

Here are the results of our predictions.

We all did fairly well, missing in similar places, but the nominations we didn’t see coming, at least the ones none of us predicted – Paul Thomas Anderson in Best Director; Denzel Washington in Best Actor; The Big Sick in Original Screenplay; Logan in Adapted Screenplay; Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri in Original Score; I, Tonya in Film Editing; Victoria & Abdul in Makeup and Hairstyling; both Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 and Kong: Skull Island in Visual Effects; On Body and Soul in Foreign Language Film; and Strong Island in Documentary Feature.

Of the nominations all of us predicted, these were the ones that did not materialize – Martin McDonagh in Best Director; Wonder in Adapted Screenplay; “Evermore” in Original Song; Darkest Hour in Original Score; The Greatest Showman in Costume Design; The Shape of Water in Visual Effects; Foxtrot in Foreign Language Film; both City of Ghosts and Jane in Documentary Feature; 116 Cameras in Documentary Short; and In a Heartbeat in Animated Short.

We had a small number of sole predictions, where one of our number was the only person to make a prediction. Here are the ones that came to fruition – Peter picked Lesley Manville in Supporting Actress; Wesley picked “Mighty River” and Thomas picked “Stand Up for Something” in Original Song; Tripp picked Star Wars: The Last Jedi in Original Score; Peter picked Victoria & Abdul in Costume Design; Wesley picked Traffic Stop in Documentary Short; and Wesley picked Garden Party and Thomas picked both Negative Space and Revolting Rhymes in Animated Short.

Several perfect 5-for-5 (or 3-for-3 in Makeup) were achieved by our predictors. Wesley and Peter had all nine films in the Best Picture slate of ten. Wesley, Tripp, and Thomas each got 5 of the Actress nominees; Thomas was the only one to predict all five Supporting Actor nominees; Tripp was the lone person to predict all five in Original Screenplay; Wesley, Tripp, and Thomas also got all five Cinematography nominees; Wesley and Thomas picked all five in Production Design; Wesley, Peter, and Thomas got all five Sound Mixing predictions; and Wesley, Peter, and Thomas also correctly predicted Sound Editing.

Wesley Lovell – 95 Correct
Peter J. Patrick – 86 Correct
Tripp Burton – 88 Correct
Thomas La Tourrette – 98 Correct

And that’s how we did. Not terribly bad overall. Now the real work begins. We will have our first winner predictions posted very soon.

Nominations Tallies

(13) The Shape of Water
(8) Dunkirk
(7) Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
(6) Darkest Hour, Phantom Thread
(5) Blade Runner 2049, Lady Bird
(4) Call Me by Your Name, Get Out, Mudbound, Star Wars: The Last Jedi
(3) Baby Driver, I, Tonya
(2) Beauty and the Beast, Coco, The Post, Victoria & Abdul
(1) Abacus: Small Enough to Jail, All the Money in the World, The Big Sick, The Boss Baby, The Breadwinner, Dear Basketball, DeKalb Elementary, The Disaster Artist, Edith+Eddie, The Eleven O’Clock, Faces Places, A Fantastic Woman, Ferdinand, The Florida Project, Garden Party, The Greatest Showman, Guardians of the Galaxy, Vol. 2, Heaven Is a Traffic Jam on the 405, Heroin(e), Icarus, The Insult, Knife Skills, Kong: Skull Island, Last Men in Aleppo, Logan, Lou, Loveless, Loving Vincent, Marshall, Molly’s Game, My Nephew Emmett, Negative Space, On Body and Soul, Revolting Rhymes, Roman J. Israel, Esq., The Silent Child, The Square, Strong Island, Traffic Stop, War for the Planet of the Apes, Watu Wote / All of Us, Wonder

The Nominations

BEST PICTURE

Call Me by Your Name
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
Get Out
Lady Bird
Phantom Thread
The Post
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

The Boss Baby
The Breadwinner
Coco
Ferdinand
Loving Vincent

BEST DIRECTING

Dunkirk – Christopher Nolan
Get Out – Jordan Peele
Lady Bird – Greta Gerwig
Phantom Thread – Paul Thomas Anderson
The Shape of Water – Guillermo del Toro

BEST ACTOR

Timothรฉe Chalamet – Call Me by Your Name
Daniel Day-Lewis – Phantom Thread
Daniel Kaluuya – Get Out
Gary Oldman – Darkest Hour
Denzel Washington – Roman J. Israel, Esq.

BEST ACTRESS

Sally Hawkins – The Shape of Water
Frances McDormand – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Margot Robbie – I, Tonya
Saoirse Ronan – Lady Bird
Meryl Streep – The Post

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Willem Dafoe – The Florida Project
Woody Harrelson – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Richard Jenkins – The Shape of Water
Christopher Plummer – All the Money in the World
Sam Rockwell – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Mary J. Blige – Mudbound
Allison Janney – I, Tonya
Lesley Manville – Phantom Thread
Laurie Metcalf – Lady Bird
Octavia Spencer – The Shape of Water

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Call Me by Your Name
The Disaster Artist
Logan
Molly’s Game
Mudbound

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

The Big Sick
Get Out
Lady Bird
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

Dunkirk
Phantom Thread
The Shape of Water
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

Mighty River – Mudbound
Mystery Of Love – Call Me by Your Name
Remember Me – Coco
Stand Up For Something – Marshall
This Is Me – The Greatest Showman

BEST FILM EDITING

Baby Driver
Dunkirk
I, Tonya
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Blade Runner 2049
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
Mudbound
The Shape of Water

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

Beauty and the Beast
Blade Runner 2049
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Beauty and the Beast
Darkest Hour
Phantom Thread
The Shape of Water
Victoria & Abdul

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

Darkest Hour
Victoria & Abdul
Wonder

BEST SOUND MIXING

Baby Driver
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
Star Wars: The Last Jedi

BEST SOUND EDITING

Baby Driver
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
Star Wars: The Last Jedi

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Blade Runner 2049
Guardians of the Galaxy, Vol. 2
Kong: Skull Island
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
War for the Planet of the Apes

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

A Fantastic Woman – Chile
The Insult – Lebanon
Loveless – Russia
On Body and Soul – Hungary
The Square – Sweden

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Abacus: Small Enough to Jail
Faces Places
Icarus
Last Men in Aleppo
Strong Island

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT

Edith+Eddie
Heaven Is a Traffic Jam on the 405
Heroin(e)
Knife Skills
Traffic Stop

BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM

Dear Basketball
Garden Party
Lou
Negative Space
Revolting Rhymes

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM

DeKalb Elementary
The Eleven O’Clock
My Nephew Emmett
The Silent Child
Watu Wote / All of Us

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