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There’s not much time left. Sunday, we will find out just how much we did and did not know about this Oscar season. While I’ve contributed quick thoughts to our Rundown articles, I always like to do more with my final post of the year. This will include how I think the races will finish out, what has the best chances of surprising and what I overall felt about the nominees, non-nominees and other general thoughts. Please note that I have not made it through all of the Oscar nominees, so my thoughts will be based on what I have seen and what I see as problem nominees if that applies.

The categories below are sorted in order from least competitive to most competitive.

I will not be sharing my personal thoughts on the quality of the foreign language and documentary categories, but I’ve seen both short film categories, so I can offer my thoughts on those this year.. I don’t know that my guesses would have much impact. I have still written a little something on each and these are separated out at the end of this article.

Best Animated Feature

Who Will Win: Coco. All season long, there has been only one definitive contender for this award. Even when the indie animated films showed up on the list and we had an idea what was coming on that front, nothing looked even remotely competitive. Most, if not all, of the major animated pictures were duds or unimpressive and Pixar is the biggest winner in this category, even toppling better movies in the past. So, even if Coco hadn’t been as well received as it was, it would probably still have been the frontrunner.
Who Could Potentially Upset: Loving Vincent. The sacrificial lambs that film this category are unlikely to have any impact on voting, though the accomplishment that is Loving Vincent is probably the closest thing, though The Breadwinner has its fair share of champions.
My Personal Thoughts: For the first time in a number of years, I’ve only seen one of the five nominees. Most of the other films I watched and enjoyed didn’t make the list. Coco is the only one I have and while there are a few problems with it and the Pixar formula that forms the foundation of it, the film is a wonderful creation.

Best Actor

Who Will Win: Gary Oldman. The minute Darkest Hour was announced with Gary Oldman attached to play Winston Churchill, he became the frontrunner. After years as a well respected actor with roles that some thought should have been Oscar nominated, he’s reached a point in his career where a lifetime achievement award was warranted and once he broke into the Oscar club with Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, it became inevitable that he would win and with no competition that stands a reasonable chance of upsetting, he will handily take the crown.
Who Could Potentially Upset: Timothรฉe Chalamet. The critics anointed Chalamet early and while he picked up a pile of noteworthy citations, he struggled to top Oldman in any plausible way. That means that while he is probably running second thanks to the brilliant breakthrough year he’s had, Chalamet is not going home with an Oscar unless there’s a huge surprise.
My Personal Thoughts: I have not yet seen Daniel Day-Lewis or Denzel Washington in their respective films. Of the remaining three, I think they all do wonderful work. Daniel Kaluuya might be performing in a genre film, but he gives it the gravitas of a traditional drama. He excels at fear, passion, hope, humor, and many other emotions and modes, each one perfectly calibrated to the film. Timothรฉe Chalamet also gave a terrific performance in Call Me by Your Name. The closing scene alone grabbed your attention and held it an impossibly long time, but it wasn’t just that scene that defined his performance. Other noteworthy performances this year included Hugh Jackman in Logan, a brazen, well worn performance, transcending its comic book roots; Andy Serkis was once again wonderful in his motion capture performance in War for the Planet of the Apes; and, of course, Gary Oldman, who delivers the best performance of the year. Emoting under such heavy makeup is a challenge, but he’s terrific at it, giving us a blustery and charismatic leader, embodying the spirit, defiance, and stubbornness of Churchill with humanity and craft.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Who Will Win: Call Me by Your Name. James Ivory is a film legend. Along with his partner Ismail Merchant, Ivory helped re-define the costume drama through the 1980s and 1990s. Here, he tackles a very personal story about two young men falling in love over the course of a summer in northern Italy. The film has gotten superb reviews and is the only Best Picture nominee on the slate, making it an almost certain winner. Even against other Best Picture nominees, it would probably win.
Who Could Potentially Upset: Mudbound. There really isn’t a lot of great competition for Call Me by Your Name, but director Dee Rees co-wrote the screenplay for Mudbound, a film that very nearly earned a Best Picture nomination. Against the other films, this could well be running second, though there could be cases made for Molly’s Game (prior winner Aaron Sorkin) and The Disaster Artist one of the most honored screenplays of the year.
My Personal Thoughts: Of the nominees, I’ve so far seen only Logan and Call Me by Your Name. I think both scripts are excellent and I’d probably give the edge to Call Me by Your Name, though it might be close. Other worthy screenplays are Blade Runner 2049, a brilliant follow-up to the sci-fi classic Blade Runner and the culmination of the supremely relevant and expressive Planet of the Apes reboot trilogy.

Best Directing

Who Will Win: Guillermo del Toro. For the last several years, we’ve seen major productions with lots of nominations pick up Best Director, but then fail to win Best Picture. This looks to be another one of those years with Guillermo del Toro almost running the board all season.
Who Could Potentially Upset: Jordan Peele. When you look at this year’s Oscar race, a lot of candidates have films that were highly regarded by critics, but have divided others. This can help and hinder a film’s chances. That’s why Get Out has both terrific potential and almost none. While I could imagine a situation where Greta Gerwig or Christopher Nolan won, I think the achievement that is Get Out might help propel its director, Jordan Peele, to victory.
My Personal Thoughts: Peele and del Toro are obvious choices, but I’d also single out Luca Guadagnino and Denis Villeneuve as directing some of the year’s best movies. I also respect Gerwig’s work with Lady Bird.

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

Who Will Win: Darkest Hour. All season, people have talked about both how Gary Oldman has dug into his roll as Winston Churchill as well as how the makeup inhibits appreciation of his performance. With regard to either, the consensus has been that the makeup work was impressive.
Who Could Potentially Upset: Wonder. Of the two other nominees in this category, only Wonder was recognized by the Make-Up Artists & Hair Stylists Guild. That suggests that the work in Victoria & Abdul isn’t as respected. That doesn’t mean that Academy voters won’t recognize it, but they tend to respect flashy and Victoria just isn’t flashy and exceedingly noticeable. That means the more visible work in Wonder is probably running behind Darkest Hour.
My Personal Thoughts: I’m a bit surprised that films like Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 wasn’t nominated. Among other contenders, I love the makeup work in Logan, Blade Runner 2049, Atomic Blonde, and Thor: Ragnarok in addition to Darkest Hour.

Best Actress

Who Will Win: Frances McDormand. It’s been 21 years since Frances McDormand picked up her first Oscar for the Coen Brothers film Fargo. While she’s done good and bad work since, she’s earned a lot of respect. That she’s swept most of the precursors throughout Oscar season suggests she’s pretty much assured the win.
Who Could Potentially Upset: Saoirse Ronan. Still, if there’s one category where ageism rears its ugly head, it’s Best Actress where being in your twenties is more helpful for a win than not. Saoirse Ronan would easily fit into that demographic and this being her third overall nomination at such a young age might just bolster her chances with Oscar voters.
My Personal Thoughts: Ronan is easily one of the best of the year, as are fellow nominees Robbie, Hawkins, and Streep. McDormand is also good, but I wouldn’t rank her as high as the others. Other performances worth noting are Charlize Theron’s in Atomic Blonde, Gal Gadot in Wonder Woman, and surprisingly Karen Gillan in Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle.

Best Original Score

Who Will Win: The Shape of Water. Now that Alexandre Desplat’s in the Oscar nominees club, he’s been picking up numerous nominations and wins. His career trajectory looks similar to that of John Williams. I don’t think his score for The Shape of Water will have any trouble winning.
Who Could Potentially Upset: Dunkirk. Although I disagree with most, Dunkirk‘s score is well celebrated. It has been talked up for some time and could play a spoiler role.
My Personal Thoughts: I’ll keep the score to The Shape of Water, but jettison the rest (though I have not seen Phantom Thread yet, so it might return once that occurs. The problem is that I cannot recall that many truly wonderful scores this year. Blade Runner 2049 is not only the best non-nominated score, it’s better than all of the nominees. Darkest Hour also had a superb score.

Best Supporting Actor

Who Will Win: Sam Rockwell. When the season began, Sam Rockwell was getting excellent notices, but most thought he was just going to have to be happy with the nomination. Then the televised awards hit and he began winning left and right shifting rather solidly into the frontrunner position.
Who Could Potentially Upset: Willem Dafoe. As Sam Rockwell’s star rose, Willem Dafoe’s fell. Critics almost universally praised Dafoe’s understated work and that portion of awards season gave the lion’s share of awards to Dafoe. After Rockwell began stomping Dafoe, the well respected veteran faded. The fact that he’s a well respected veteran might actually help him with a come-from-behind victory.
My Personal Thoughts: Of the three nominees I’ve seen, I think Rockwell and Harrelson definitely deserve to be there and while I like Richard Jenkins’ performance, I just don’t think it’s award-caliber. That said, I’d likely fill my list with Patrick Stewart, Armie Hammer, and Michael Stuhlbarg, though I respect what Jon Hamm did in Baby Driver and felt Michael Shannon, while someone narrowly drawn, gave a solid performance.

Best Supporting Actress

Who Will Win: Allison Janney. Just like in Best Supporting Actor, the Supporting Actress race started out like a steamroll for Laurie Metcalf. Then, as more people saw I, Tonya (outside of critics groups), Allison Janney began sweeping prizes. She’s now won enough major awards to be considered the frontrunner.
Who Could Potentially Upset: Laurie Metcalf. That said, if there’s anyone who can not Janney off, it’s acting veteran Metcalf, though Janney’s no slouch in that respect.
My Personal Thoughts: I’d keep Janney and Metcalf on my list while putting Octavia Spencer on the sidelines. I’d then include Holly Hunter, Betty Gabriel for Get Out, and Hong Chau. I also had great respect for the performances of Salma Hayek in The Hitman’s Bodyguard and Laura Dern in Star Wars: The Last Jedi.

Best Visual Effects

Who Will Win: Blade Runner 2049. Creating an entire world, even one based on a previously created world, is a huge undertaking and the visual effects that went along with Blade Runner 2049 were quite impressive.
Who Could Potentially Upset: War for the Planet of the Apes. What could help War for the Planet of the Apes to victory is if Academy voters remember or care that none of the prior films won this award.
My Personal Thoughts: There’s no doubt that the Visual Effects nominees this year are quite good. I’d make my list from Blade Runner 2049, War for the Planet of the Apes, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2, Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets, and Logan.

Best Original Song

Who Will Win: “Remember Me”. One of the defining characteristics of Oscar-winning songs is how they are used in their films. Apart from a few tracks, many of this category’s winners have been crucial, central elements to their film and there are few as integrated into theirs as “Remember Me” is to Coco.
Who Could Potentially Upset: “This Is Me”. That sentiment could definitely serve “This Is Me” from The Greatest Showman well. Of course, this category is well packed this year and any title could win and not be very surprising.
My Personal Thoughts: I wasn’t that impressed with “Remember Me,” but add to “This Is Me” and “Mystery of Love” the songs “Evermore” from Beauty and the Beast and “Visions of Gideon (“Mystery of Love’s” counterpart from Call Me by Your Name) and you have a pretty solid foundation.

Best Film Editing

Who Will Win: Dunkirk. With the number of awards Dunkirk has won for editing, it would be surprising if the disjointed timeline of the film didn’t take the award. The Academy loves such tricky edits.
Who Could Potentially Upset: Baby_Driver. That said, they also love flashy, which could help Baby Driver immensely. It’s also possible that the fractured structure of I, Tonya could be a surprise victor.
My Personal Thoughts: I’d include Baby Driver and I, Tonya for sure, then throw in the likes of Atomic Blonde, Get Out, and Blade Runner 2049.

Best Sound Mixing

Who Will Win: Dunkirk. For some reason, Oscar voters love war films in the sound categories. I guess they assume that it’s a bigger challenge to piece together war sounds than it is other films.
Who Could Potentially Upset: Baby Driver. That’s why a film like Baby Driver or Blade Runner 2049 could be potentials spoilers. Both adeptly blend a musical score with the sound effects, dialogue, and other elements to create an almost seamless aural soundscape.
My Personal Thoughts: I can’t really fault any of the nominated films, though Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets should absolutely have been considered.

Best Sound Editing

Who Will Win: Dunkirk. Many years, this category is given hand-in-hand with Sound Mixing. Part of that is because no one really knows the difference and part of it is that many people think the two categories are so intricately mingled that they should go the same place. And they love war films.
Who Could Potentially Upset: Blade_Runner_2049. Trying to create an entire future, especially one with myriad different and original sounds takes a lot of work and if Academy voters want to honor something inventive rather than traditional, they might opt for Blade Runner 2049.
My Personal Thoughts: Once again, the unique and interesting sounds that were created for Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets should have been in the mix.

Best Production Design

Who Will Win: The Shape of Water. You don’t create such a richly detailed world on such a small budget without some major talent behind the scenes. That impressiveness should bolster Shape of Water‘s chances.
Who Could Potentially Upset: Blade Runner 2049. The Shape of Water might have been cheaper, but it has a lot of familiar elements to it, whereas Blade Runner 2049 has a lot of original ones, making it a very strong potential spoiler.
My Personal Thoughts: Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets was a gorgeous creation, but the film was unfairly maligned, leaving it out of the race when it shouldn’t have been. Blade Runner 2049 and The Shape of Water are equally award worthy, as is Beauty and the Beast, but more consideration should have been given to the likes of Kingsman: The Golden Circle, Thor: Ragnarok, and Wonder Woman.

Best Cinematography

Who Will Win: Blade Runner 2049. While names don’t typically appear on Oscar ballots, everyone knows Roger Deakins and most of them know he’s never won an Oscar. Although he’s deserved the honor previously, this is the first time in awhile, that voters may feel the need to reward him, both as a career honor, and as recognition for the excellent work he did on Blade Runner 2049.
Who Could Potentially Upset: The Shape of Water. At first, it seemed like Rachel Morrison, the first woman nominated for Cinematography, might have had a chance, but she’ll have plenty of opportunities. The Shape of Water may well be the better bet for an upset.
My Personal Thoughts: The nominees were all solidly photographed, but Call Me by Your Name should have been included, especially over the likes of Dunkirk.

Best Animated Short Film

Who Will Win: Garden Party. For the first time ever, I’ve managed to watch all five of the animated short films nominated this year and while I’ve heard that Dear Basketball is the frontrunner, a lot of folks are impressed by Garden Party and its incredibly realistic animation.
Who Could Potentially Upset: Dear Basketball. Although Kobe Bryant has been accused of sexual assault, Los Angeles is a Lakers town, which might bolster his chances. Then again, Pixar’s heart-warming Lou could surprise, as could the longest nominee of the bunch Revolting Rhymes.
My Personal Thoughts: Garden Party is wonderful, as are Lou and Negative Space. Revolting Rhymes is frustrating because it’s the first of a two-part story. I love the message and animation of Dear Basketball, but Bryant doesn’t deserve any honor for this one. I’m most disappointed that neither the haunting Cradle or the joyous In a Heartbeat weren’t nominated.

Best Live-Action Short Film

Who Will Win: DeKalb Elementary. With recent events, DeKalb Elementary has an elevated sense of urgency.
Who Could Potentially Upset: Any. Any of the other nominees could easily triumph thanks to the idea that Academy voters don’t always have the best taste. A case could be made for any of them as three of the five or politically charged and the fourth contains an important message.
My Personal Thoughts: DeKalb Elementary had me engaged from the first moment and emotionally wrecked not long into it. That degree of humanity and emotional involvement just blew me away. It is easily the best of the fourth, though Watu Wote was also quite haunting. The Silent Child is fascinating and heart-breaking. I didn’t connect with My Nephew Emmett as well as I should and that may be the fault of the short film’s build-up moments. I didn’t care at all for The Eleven O’Clock as it’s not that funny, is ultimately predictable, and has been touched on narratively many times.

Best Costume Design

Who Will Win: Beauty and the Beast. It seems like most are predicting Phantom Thread to win this award, but there isn’t a lot of precedent for a film like that to win. Beauty and the Beast has countless precedents to base a win prediction on. There are just so many costumes in it, that I can’t imagine Oscar voters not going for it.
Who Could Potentially Upset: Phantom Thread. That being said, there is some merit to a Phantom Thread prediction. It is said to have compelling designs and it’s also a Best Picture nominee, which boosts its profile.
My Personal Thoughts: I haven’t seen either Phantom Thread or Victoria & Abdul yet. Of the rest, I’d include only Beauty and the Beast and The Shape of Water, then fill out with Thor: Ragnarok, Wonder Woman, and Blade Runner 2049.

Best Original Screenplay

Who Will Win: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri. Martin McDonagh is a previous nominee. Some voters also felt that he should have been nominated for Best Director. Throw in the appreciation the film has received from actors and you have a recipe for a Oscar win.
Who Could Potentially Upset: Get Out. All season, Get Out was recognized as the year’s best screenplay. The film has a uniqueness that could help it with voters, plus there’s no other place for the Academy to recognize the achievement of Jordan Peele. There’s also no other opportunity to recognize Greta Gerwig, so this seems to be a bit of a three-way race.
My Personal Thoughts: Get Out is handily the best original script of the year. The Big Sick, Lady Bird, and I, Tonya were also really good. I respect Three Billboards to an extent, but the characters are very narrowly drawn and they also stretch credibility at times. The Post was well researched and The Shape of Water was wonderfully written.

Best Picture

Who Will Win: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri. Performing well above expectations this year, Three Billboards has played its cards right and has picked up almost every single nomination that a potential Best Picture nominee should except Best Director.
Who Could Potentially Upset: The Shape of Water. That fact might indicate that Three Billboards isn’t beloved outside the acting branch and although it is the biggest, there are plenty of others in other branches. Further, the preferential ballot might enable a more crowd-pleasing movie like The Shape of Water to come out on top, or it could bolster the chances of Get Out to make a Moonlight-like surprise in Best Picture.
My Personal Thoughts: Call Me by Your Name would probably be my top pick, though Get Out and Blade Runner 2049 would give it a healthy run for the money. Other films that I would have loved to see recognized, even if the Academy would never go for them are Star Wars: The Last Jedi and Logan. I, Tonya was also pretty enjoyable and The Post and The Shape of Water were also among the best of the year.

And that’s all I have to say about this year’s Oscars. Enjoy this year’s race and don’t forget to keep reading to find out more on my thoughts about the remaining categories.

These are those categories. I haven’t seen enough of these to make decisions on what should win, what should not, or what even should have been nominated. They are all also equally close in terms of potential winners.

Best Foreign Language Film

Who Will Win: A Fantatsic Woman. It’s hard to know with those who vote in these categories if conventional wisdom is applicable. A Fantastic Woman has terrific reviews, which could help it eke out a victory.
Who Could Potentially Upset: Any. That leaves any of the other four nominees as a potential spoiler, including On Body and Soul, the one film few actually thought would make the final nomination list.

Best Documentary Feature

Who Will Win: Faces Places. I can’t begin to guess what these voters will pick, but I’m leaning towards Faces Places for the win.
Who Could Potentially Upset: Any. That said, I really think almost any of these titles could stage a victory run.

Best Documentary Short Subject

Who Will Win: Heroin(e). Sometimes, I make my predictions based on a title and that’s one of the primary reasons I landed on this; however, the subject matter might also appeal to Oscar voters.
Who Could Potentially Upset: Any. Of course, I haven’t always been the best predictor in this category, which means any of the other titles could possibly win.

That’s everything. I hope you enjoyed reading and we’ll see you on the other side.

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