The 82nd Academy Awards (2009): Winner Predictions

Prediction Key:

  • Winner Prediction (o-Win Pred Date Set) -Chance at Victory-

Chance at Victory Key:

  • Safe Bet: These are so likely to win that any other outcome would be shocking.
  • Neck and Neck: These are the tight races where any of the films could win.
  • Potential Spoiler: These are contenders that aren't currently competing but could benefit from little consensus or find enough support to top the top competitors.
  • Long Shot: These are the true shocks that could emerge if there's enough support for them, but which are unlikely to win in general terms.
  • Also Ran: These are the ones with no shot at all, no surprise victories.


  • 4
  • 4
  • 2
  • 2
  • 2
  • 2
  • 1
  • 1
  • 1
  • 1
  • 1
  • 1
  • 1
  • 1
  • Avatar
  • The Hurt Locker
  • Crazy Heart
  • Inglourious Basterds
  • Up
  • The Young Victoria
  • Ajami
  • The Blind Side
  • The Cove
  • The Last Truck
  • Kavi
  • A Matter of Loaf and Death
  • Precious
  • Up in the Air

Best Picture

    The Hurt Locker - Kathryn Bigelow, Mark Boal, Nicholas Chartier, Greg Shapiro (o-2/13) -Neck and Neck-

    Avatar - James Cameron, Jon Landau -Neck and Neck-
    Inglourious Basterds - Lawrence Bender -Potential Spoiler-
    Up in the Air - Daniel Dubiecki, Ivan Reitman, Jason Reitman -Potential Spoiler-
    Precious - Lee Daniels, Sarah Siegel-Magness, Gary Magness -Potential Spoiler-
    Up - Jonas Rivera -Potential Spoiler-
    The Blind Side - Gil Netter, Andrew A. Kosove, Broderick Johnson -Long Shot-
    District 9 - Peter Jackson, Carolynne Cunningham -Also Ran-
    An Education - Finola Dwyer, Amanda Posey -Also Ran-
    A Serious Man - Joel Coen, Ethan Coen -Also Ran-

Best Animated Feature

    Up - Pete Docter (o-9/16) -Neck and Neck-

    Fantastic Mr. Fox - Wes Anderson -Neck and Neck-
    The Princess and the Frog - John Musker, Ron Clements -Potential Spoiler-
    Coraline - Henry Selick -Potential Spoiler-
    The Secret of Kells - Tomm Moore -Long Shot-

Best Director

    The Hurt Locker - Kathryn Bigelow (o-1/18) -Safe Bet-

    Inglourious Basterds - Quentin Tarantino -Potential Spoiler-
    Avatar - James Cameron -Potential Spoiler-
    Up in the Air - Jason Reitman -Long Shot-
    Precious - Lee Daniels -Long Shot-

Best Actor

    Crazy Heart - Jeff Bridges (o-1/18) -Safe Bet-

    Up in the Air - George Clooney -Potential Spoiler-
    The Hurt Locker - Jeremy Renner -Potential Spoiler-
    A Single Man - Colin Firth -Long Shot-
    Invictus - Morgan Freeman -Also Ran-

Best Actress

    The Blind Side - Sandra Bullock (o-1/18) -Neck and Neck-

    Julie & Julia - Meryl Streep -Neck and Neck-
    An Education - Carey Mulligan -Long Shot-
    Precious - Gabourey Sidibe -Long Shot-
    The Last Station - Helen Mirren -Also Ran-

Best Supporting Actor

    Inglourious Basterds - Christoph Waltz (o-2/2) -Safe Bet-

    The Last Station - Christopher Plummer -Potential Spoiler-
    The Messenger - Woody Harrelson -Long Shot-
    The Lovely Bones - Stanley Tucci -Also Ran-
    Invictus - Matt Damon -Also Ran-

Best Supporting Actress

    Precious - Mo'Nique (o-10/30) -Safe Bet-

    Up in the Air - Vera Farmiga -Potential Spoiler-
    Up in the Air - Anna Kendrick -Potential Spoiler-
    Crazy Heart - Maggie Gyllenhaal -Long Shot-
    Nine - Penelope Cruz -Also Ran-

Best Original Screenplay

    Inglourious Basterds - Quentin Tarantino (o-1/18) -Neck and Neck-

    The Hurt Locker - Mark Boal -Neck and Neck-
    Up - Bob Peterson, Pete Docter, Tom McCarthy -Potential Spoiler-
    The Messenger - Alessandro Camon, Oren Moverman -Long Shot-
    A Serious Man - Joel Coen, Ethan Coen -Also Ran-

Best Adapted Screenplay

    Up in the Air - Jason Reitman, Sheldon Turner (o-12/6) -Safe Bet-

    Precious - Geoffrey Fletcher -Potential Spoiler-
    In the Loop - Jesse Armstrong, Simon Blackwell, Armando Iannucci, Tony Roche -Potential Spoiler-
    An Education - Nick Hornby -Long Shot-
    District 9 - Neill Blomkamp, Terri Tatchell -Long Shot-

Best Original Score

    Up - Micahel Giacchino (o-3/23) -Neck and Neck-

    Avatar - James Horner -Neck and Neck-
    Fantastic Mr. Fox - Alexandre Desplat -Potential Spoiler-
    The Hurt Locker - Marco Beltrami, Buck Sanders -Potential Spoiler-
    Sherlock Holmes - Hans Zimmer -Long Shot-

Best Original Song

    Crazy Heart - The Weary Kind (o-1/18) -Safe Bet-

    The Princess and the Frog - Almost There -Potential Spoiler-
    The Princess and the Frog - Down in New Orleans -Long Shot-
    Paris 36 - Loin de Paname -Also Ran-
    Nine - Take It All -Also Ran-

Best Editing

    The Hurt Locker - Bob Murawksi, Chris Innis (o-1/13) -Neck and Neck-

    Avatar - Steven Rivkin, John Refoua, James Cameron -Neck and Neck-
    Inglourious Basterds - Sally Menke -Potential Spoiler-
    District 9 - Julian Clarke -Long Shot-
    Precious - Joe Klotz -Also Ran-

Best Cinematography

    The Hurt Locker - Barry Ackroyd (o-1/18) -Neck and Neck-

    The White Ribbon - Christian Berger -Neck and Neck-
    Inglourious Basterds - Robert Richardson -Neck and Neck-
    Avatar - Mauro Fiore -Neck and Neck-
    Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince - Bruno Delbonnel -Also Ran-

Best Art Direction

    Avatar - Rick Carter, Robert Stromberg, Kim Sinclair (o-1/13) -Safe Bet-

    Sherlock Holmes - Sarah Greenwood, Katie Spencer -Potential Spoiler-
    The Young Victoria - Patrice Vernette, Maggie Gray -Potential Spoiler-
    The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus - Dave Warren, Anastasia Masaro, Caroline Smith -Also Ran-
    Nine - John Myhre, Gordon Sim -Also Ran-

Best Costume Design

    The Young Victoria - Sandy Powell (o-11/27) -Safe Bet-

    Coco Before Chanel - Catherine Leterrier -Potential Spoiler-
    Bright Star - Janet Patterson -Potential Spoiler-
    Nine - Colleen Atwood -Long Shot-
    The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus - Monique Prudhomme -Also Ran-

Best Makeup

    The Young Victoria - Jon Henry Gordon, Jenny Shircore (o-3/6) -Neck and Neck-

    Il Divo - Aldo Signoretti, Vittorio Sodano -Neck and Neck-
    Star Trek - Barney Burman, Mindy Hall, Joel Harlow -Neck and Neck-

Best Sound Mixing

    Avatar - Christopher Boyes, Gary Summers, Andy Nelson, Tony Johnson (o-1/13) -Neck and Neck-

    The Hurt Locker - Paul N.J. Ottosson, Ray Beckett -Neck and Neck-
    Inglourious Basterds - Michael Minkler, Tony Lamberti, Mark Ulano -Neck and Neck-
    Star Trek - Anna Behlmer, Andy Nelson, Peter J. Devlin -Long Shot-
    Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen - Greg P. Russell, Gary Summers, Geoffrey Patterson -Also Ran-

Best Sound Editing

    Avatar - Christopher Boyes, Gwendolyn Yates Whittle (o-3/23) -Neck and Neck-

    The Hurt Locker - Paul N.J. Ottosson -Neck and Neck-
    Up - Michael Silvers, Tom Myers -Potential Spoiler-
    Inglourious Basterds - Wylie Stateman -Long Shot-
    Star Trek - Mark Stoeckinger, Alan Rankin -Also Ran-

Best Visual Effects

    Avatar - Joe Letteri, Stephen Rosenbaum, Richard Baneham, Andrew R. Jones (o-3/23) -Safe Bet-

    District 9 - Dan Kaufman, Peter Muyzers, Robert Habros, Matt Aitken -Potential Spoiler-
    Star Trek - Rogert Guyett, Russell Earl, Paul Kavanagh, Burt Dalton -Long Shot-

Best Foreign Film

    Ajami - Israel (o-2/22) -Neck and Neck-

    Un Prophète - France -Neck and Neck-
    El Secreto de Sus Ojos - Argentina -Neck and Neck-
    The White Ribbon - Germany -Neck and Neck-
    The Milk of Sorrow - Peru -Also Ran-

Best Documentary Feature

    The Cove - TBD (o-2/25)

    Burma VJ - Anders Østergaard, Lisa Lense-Møller
    The Most Dangerous Man in America: Daniel Ellsberg and the Pentagon Papers - Judith Ehlrich, Rick Goldsmith
    Food, Inc. - Robert Kenner, Elise Pearlstein
    Which Way Home - Rebecca Cammisa

Best Documentary Short Subject

    The Last Truck: Closing of a GM Plant - Steven Bognar, Julia Reichert (o-11/27)

    China's Unnatural Disaster: The Tears of Sichuan Province - Jon Alpert, Matthew O'Neill
    Music by Prudence - Roger Ross Williams, Elinor Burkett
    Rabbit a la Berlin - Bartek Konopka, Anna Wydra
    The Last Campaign of Governor Booth Gardner - Daniel Junge, Henry Ansbacher

Best Animated Short Film

    A Matter of Loaf and Death - Nick Park (o-11/27)

    The Lady and the Reaper (La Dama y la Muerte) - Javier Recio Garcia
    Granny O'Grimm's Sleeping Beauty - Nicky Phelan, Darragh O'Connell
    Logorama - Nicolas Schmerkin
    French Roast - Fabrice O. Joubert

Best Live-Action Short Film

    Kavi - Gregg Helvey (o-2/25)

    The Door - Juanita Wilson, James Flynn
    Instead of Abracadabra - Patrik Eklund, Matthias Fjellström
    The New Tenants - Joachim Back, Tivi Magnusson
    Miracle Fish - Luke Doolan, Drew Bailey