The 82nd Academy Awards (2009): Winner Predictions

Prediction Key:

• Winner Prediction (o-Win Pred Date Set) -Chance at Victory-

Chance at Victory Key:

• Safe Bet: These are so likely to win that any other outcome would be shocking.
• Neck and Neck: These are the tight races where any of the films could win.
• Potential Spoiler: These are contenders that aren't currently competing but could benefit from little consensus or find enough support to top the top competitors.
• Long Shot: These are the true shocks that could emerge if there's enough support for them, but which are unlikely to win in general terms.
• Also Ran: These are the ones with no shot at all, no surprise victories.

Awards
4 4 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1	Avatar The Hurt Locker Crazy Heart Inglourious Basterds Up The Young Victoria Ajami The Blind Side The Cove The Last Truck Kavi A Matter of Loaf and Death Precious Up in the Air

Best Picture

The Hurt Locker - Kathryn Bigelow, Mark Boal, Nicholas Chartier, Greg Shapiro (o-2/13) -Neck and Neck-

Avatar - James Cameron, Jon Landau -Neck and Neck-
Inglourious Basterds - Lawrence Bender -Potential Spoiler-
Up in the Air - Daniel Dubiecki, Ivan Reitman, Jason Reitman -Potential Spoiler-
Precious - Lee Daniels, Sarah Siegel-Magness, Gary Magness -Potential Spoiler-
Up - Jonas Rivera -Potential Spoiler-
The Blind Side - Gil Netter, Andrew A. Kosove, Broderick Johnson -Long Shot-
District 9 - Peter Jackson, Carolynne Cunningham -Also Ran-
An Education - Finola Dwyer, Amanda Posey -Also Ran-
A Serious Man - Joel Coen, Ethan Coen -Also Ran-

Best Animated Feature

Up - Pete Docter (o-9/16) -Neck and Neck-

Fantastic Mr. Fox - Wes Anderson -Neck and Neck-
The Princess and the Frog - John Musker, Ron Clements -Potential Spoiler-
Coraline - Henry Selick -Potential Spoiler-
The Secret of Kells - Tomm Moore -Long Shot-

Best Director

The Hurt Locker - Kathryn Bigelow (o-1/18) -Safe Bet-

Inglourious Basterds - Quentin Tarantino -Potential Spoiler-
Avatar - James Cameron -Potential Spoiler-
Up in the Air - Jason Reitman -Long Shot-
Precious - Lee Daniels -Long Shot-

Best Actor

Crazy Heart - Jeff Bridges (o-1/18) -Safe Bet-

Up in the Air - George Clooney -Potential Spoiler-
The Hurt Locker - Jeremy Renner -Potential Spoiler-
A Single Man - Colin Firth -Long Shot-
Invictus - Morgan Freeman -Also Ran-

Best Actress

The Blind Side - Sandra Bullock (o-1/18) -Neck and Neck-

Julie & Julia - Meryl Streep -Neck and Neck-
An Education - Carey Mulligan -Long Shot-
Precious - Gabourey Sidibe -Long Shot-
The Last Station - Helen Mirren -Also Ran-

Best Supporting Actor

Inglourious Basterds - Christoph Waltz (o-2/2) -Safe Bet-

The Last Station - Christopher Plummer -Potential Spoiler-
The Messenger - Woody Harrelson -Long Shot-
The Lovely Bones - Stanley Tucci -Also Ran-
Invictus - Matt Damon -Also Ran-

Best Supporting Actress

Precious - Mo'Nique (o-10/30) -Safe Bet-

Up in the Air - Vera Farmiga -Potential Spoiler-
Up in the Air - Anna Kendrick -Potential Spoiler-
Crazy Heart - Maggie Gyllenhaal -Long Shot-
Nine - Penelope Cruz -Also Ran-

Best Original Screenplay

Inglourious Basterds - Quentin Tarantino (o-1/18) -Neck and Neck-

The Hurt Locker - Mark Boal -Neck and Neck-
Up - Bob Peterson, Pete Docter, Tom McCarthy -Potential Spoiler-
The Messenger - Alessandro Camon, Oren Moverman -Long Shot-
A Serious Man - Joel Coen, Ethan Coen -Also Ran-

Best Adapted Screenplay

Up in the Air - Jason Reitman, Sheldon Turner (o-12/6) -Safe Bet-

Precious - Geoffrey Fletcher -Potential Spoiler-
In the Loop - Jesse Armstrong, Simon Blackwell, Armando Iannucci, Tony Roche -Potential Spoiler-
An Education - Nick Hornby -Long Shot-
District 9 - Neill Blomkamp, Terri Tatchell -Long Shot-

Best Original Score

Up - Micahel Giacchino (o-3/23) -Neck and Neck-

Avatar - James Horner -Neck and Neck-
Fantastic Mr. Fox - Alexandre Desplat -Potential Spoiler-
The Hurt Locker - Marco Beltrami, Buck Sanders -Potential Spoiler-
Sherlock Holmes - Hans Zimmer -Long Shot-

Best Original Song

Crazy Heart - The Weary Kind (o-1/18) -Safe Bet-

The Princess and the Frog - Almost There -Potential Spoiler-
The Princess and the Frog - Down in New Orleans -Long Shot-
Paris 36 - Loin de Paname -Also Ran-
Nine - Take It All -Also Ran-

Best Editing

The Hurt Locker - Bob Murawksi, Chris Innis (o-1/13) -Neck and Neck-

Avatar - Steven Rivkin, John Refoua, James Cameron -Neck and Neck-
Inglourious Basterds - Sally Menke -Potential Spoiler-
District 9 - Julian Clarke -Long Shot-
Precious - Joe Klotz -Also Ran-

Best Cinematography

The Hurt Locker - Barry Ackroyd (o-1/18) -Neck and Neck-

The White Ribbon - Christian Berger -Neck and Neck-
Inglourious Basterds - Robert Richardson -Neck and Neck-
Avatar - Mauro Fiore -Neck and Neck-
Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince - Bruno Delbonnel -Also Ran-

Best Art Direction

Avatar - Rick Carter, Robert Stromberg, Kim Sinclair (o-1/13) -Safe Bet-

Sherlock Holmes - Sarah Greenwood, Katie Spencer -Potential Spoiler-
The Young Victoria - Patrice Vernette, Maggie Gray -Potential Spoiler-
The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus - Dave Warren, Anastasia Masaro, Caroline Smith -Also Ran-
Nine - John Myhre, Gordon Sim -Also Ran-

Best Costume Design

The Young Victoria - Sandy Powell (o-11/27) -Safe Bet-

Coco Before Chanel - Catherine Leterrier -Potential Spoiler-
Bright Star - Janet Patterson -Potential Spoiler-
Nine - Colleen Atwood -Long Shot-
The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus - Monique Prudhomme -Also Ran-

Best Makeup

The Young Victoria - Jon Henry Gordon, Jenny Shircore (o-3/6) -Neck and Neck-

Il Divo - Aldo Signoretti, Vittorio Sodano -Neck and Neck-
Star Trek - Barney Burman, Mindy Hall, Joel Harlow -Neck and Neck-

Best Sound Mixing

Avatar - Christopher Boyes, Gary Summers, Andy Nelson, Tony Johnson (o-1/13) -Neck and Neck-

The Hurt Locker - Paul N.J. Ottosson, Ray Beckett -Neck and Neck-
Inglourious Basterds - Michael Minkler, Tony Lamberti, Mark Ulano -Neck and Neck-
Star Trek - Anna Behlmer, Andy Nelson, Peter J. Devlin -Long Shot-
Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen - Greg P. Russell, Gary Summers, Geoffrey Patterson -Also Ran-

Best Sound Editing

Avatar - Christopher Boyes, Gwendolyn Yates Whittle (o-3/23) -Neck and Neck-

The Hurt Locker - Paul N.J. Ottosson -Neck and Neck-
Up - Michael Silvers, Tom Myers -Potential Spoiler-
Inglourious Basterds - Wylie Stateman -Long Shot-
Star Trek - Mark Stoeckinger, Alan Rankin -Also Ran-

Best Visual Effects

Avatar - Joe Letteri, Stephen Rosenbaum, Richard Baneham, Andrew R. Jones (o-3/23) -Safe Bet-

District 9 - Dan Kaufman, Peter Muyzers, Robert Habros, Matt Aitken -Potential Spoiler-
Star Trek - Rogert Guyett, Russell Earl, Paul Kavanagh, Burt Dalton -Long Shot-

Best Foreign Film

Ajami - Israel (o-2/22) -Neck and Neck-

Un Prophète - France -Neck and Neck-
El Secreto de Sus Ojos - Argentina -Neck and Neck-
The White Ribbon - Germany -Neck and Neck-
The Milk of Sorrow - Peru -Also Ran-

Best Documentary Feature

The Cove - TBD (o-2/25)

Burma VJ - Anders Østergaard, Lisa Lense-Møller
The Most Dangerous Man in America: Daniel Ellsberg and the Pentagon Papers - Judith Ehlrich, Rick Goldsmith
Food, Inc. - Robert Kenner, Elise Pearlstein
Which Way Home - Rebecca Cammisa

Best Documentary Short Subject

The Last Truck: Closing of a GM Plant - Steven Bognar, Julia Reichert (o-11/27)

China's Unnatural Disaster: The Tears of Sichuan Province - Jon Alpert, Matthew O'Neill
Music by Prudence - Roger Ross Williams, Elinor Burkett
Rabbit a la Berlin - Bartek Konopka, Anna Wydra
The Last Campaign of Governor Booth Gardner - Daniel Junge, Henry Ansbacher

Best Animated Short Film

A Matter of Loaf and Death - Nick Park (o-11/27)

The Lady and the Reaper (La Dama y la Muerte) - Javier Recio Garcia
Granny O'Grimm's Sleeping Beauty - Nicky Phelan, Darragh O'Connell
Logorama - Nicolas Schmerkin
French Roast - Fabrice O. Joubert

Best Live-Action Short Film

Kavi - Gregg Helvey (o-2/25)

The Door - Juanita Wilson, James Flynn
Instead of Abracadabra - Patrik Eklund, Matthias Fjellström
The New Tenants - Joachim Back, Tivi Magnusson
Miracle Fish - Luke Doolan, Drew Bailey