73rd Academy Awards (2000): The Precursors

Screen Actors Guild

(3/11/01)

With Best Actor’s record-breaking success broken this year by the unprecedented win for a Supporting Actor nominee, the SAGs have to be happy with their choice of Best Actress being the winner since Roberts is the only one sitting in the position of front-runner now. Look also for Finney to win his long-deserved Oscar. Despite the liberal choice of Del Toro as Best Actor, which could weigh in his favor for the Oscar; longevity in the Supporting Actor category has been overwhelmingly important of late. Then again, this double win for the category tonight could spell victory for spoiler potential Willem Dafoe. As for Supporting Actress, Dench has obvious designs on the award, especially since her last win for Shakespeare in Love and last loss for Mrs. Brown were undeserved. However, the Supporting Actress trend, likely to carry over, is second generation Kate Hudson, whose mother won 31 years earlier.

History: Actor once had a flawless record; now they won’t. Actress has a good record and should maintain this year barring a sympathy vote for legend Ellen Burstyn. Supporting Actor accompanies Actress with 4 of 6 correct predictions. The worst record is Supporting Actress with a dismal 3 of 6.

Lead Actor: Del Toro
Lead Actress: Roberts
Supporting Actor: Finney
Supporting Actress: Judi Dench
Ensemble Cast: Traffic

Directors Guild of America

(3/11/01)

With surprise split of the PGA and DGA, it may mean a split at the Oscars. However, Crouching Tiger may end up as best picture, but it’s still got to knock off the PGA winner.

History: The DGA is incredibly accurate in their predictions. Since their inception (and barring the years they claim to have correctly predicted, but technically did not), they have only missed the Oscar winner 4 times. The last time was in 1995 when Mel Gibson surpsingly took home the award. Before that, it was ’85 when Spielberg was snubbed at the Oscar nominations. Then you head back to 72 when Cabaret nearly swept the Oscars, but Coppola took the DGA. Then it was 1968 when Oliver made a surprise sweep of the awards giving Sir Carol Reed an Oscar and leaving Anthony Harvey, director of Lion in Winter and a DGA winner Oscar-less. It’s about one time per decade and it’s a new decade, this might be the year.

Director: Ang Lee – Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon

Writers Guild of America

(3/5/01)

Traffic proves that it has what it takes to eclipse its fellow nominees for a victory, since Best Picture is obviously out of its reach. As for You Can Count on Me, it’s a good bet to win, but it’s also a good bet to lose. The support for Almost Famous after its snub is quite high and with everyone voting and not just writers, they may find that AF is far more friendly than YCCOM. There’s also the Erin Brockovich factor. Soderbergh could find two of his films taking screenplay awards since he isn’t likely to win himself. The race is tight, who’ll win is completely uncertain at this point.

History: Not bad getting at least one right per year and sometimes two. But with their trend, it seems like Traffic is the guarantee and You Can Count on Me is the weaker link. We’ll have to see, but it could go anywhere at this point.

Original Screenplay: You Can Count on Me
Adapted Screnplay: Traffic

Golden Laurel Awards (Producers Guild of America)

(3/04/01)

The PGA is really good at predicting Best Picture and this year, Gladiator seems to be the film to beat.

History: History has taught us that the PGA is accurate, but can be off. Last year, things went as scheduled with American Beauty as the victor. The year before, Saving Private Ryan became a big loser on Oscar night, even after a PGA win. The only thing that could railroad Gladiator out of a victory is a surprising surge by Soderbergh’s Brockovich, or the more likely Crouching Tiger.

Picture: Gladiator

Cinema Audio Society

(3/4/01)

Gladiator seems to be poised to take the lion’s shares of trophies on Oscar night, including the award for Best Sound, for which the CAS is noted for predicting.

History: Three years in a row correct. This year should be no different.

Sound: Gladiator

Chicago Film Critics

(2/28/01)

Being the most populist of the film organizations, CFC throws a wrench into picture and actress, upsetting the heavy favorites in those categories.

History: Not much can be said, the group is relatively new at the predictions game. The CFC’s record is terrible. Since 1996, they have predicted the eventual winner only 14 times out of 40. 4 right in 96: McDormand, Gooding Jr., Fargo for Screenplay and English Patient for Cinematography. In 97, it got worse with only three right: L.A. Confidential for screenplay and Titanic for score and cinematography. Yet further disappointing, they dropped another correct prediction in 1998 with only two: Shakespeare in Love for screenplay and Life Is Beautiful for Foreign Film. They ended 1999 with 5 correct, American Beauty for picture, actor and director, Swank for actress and All About My Mother for Foreign Film.

Picture: Almost Famous
Actor: Hanks
Actress: Burstyn
Supporting Actor: Del Toro
Supporting Actress: McDormand – Famous
Director: Soderbergh – Traffic
Screenplay: Almost Famous
Foreign Film: Crouching Tiger
Cinematography: Crouching Tiger
Most Promising Actor: Patrick Fugit
Most Promising Actress: Zhang Ziyi
Documentary: The Filth and the Fury & The Life and Times of Hank Greenberg
Original Score: Crouching Tiger

American Cinema Editors

(2/28/01)

The Gladiator ball keeps rolling despite a lack of editing quality. This is further proof that it’s the film to beat regardless of critical favor.

History: As with most of the precursor awards, histories aren’t readily available. For the ACE, their winner has predicted correctly for the past 4 years. Comedy isn’t a serious contender in awards shows, so Gladiator looks to be picking up its share of Oscar precursors.

Drama Film Editing: Gladiator
Comedy Film Editing: Almost Famous

Online Film and Television Association

(2/25/01)

Ziyi’s win is a sign that this has been a weak year for concensus on many awards. They have made some selections that will not win Oscars because they weren’t nominated, but the others seem to be quite accurate. The OFTA have been known for their ability to predict Best Cinematography and Best Original Screenplay. This also applies to the 3-for-4 record in Picture, Actor, Director, Sound and Visual Effects.

History: The OMPA has both a good and bad history at the Oscars, not too terribly different from most other precursors, but a little more accurate than others. Overall, the OFTA has predicted half of the awards correctly since its inception in 1996. Two categories have become unerringly accurate in its first four years, successfully predicting all four: Original Screenplay and Cinematography. However, there are categories on the opposite end not having predicted any in the past four years: supporting actor, supporting actress, original score and documentary. Good categories to watch, receiving 3 of 4 correct predictions in four years are: Picture, Actor, Director, Sound and Visual Effects. The certainty of all of these categories is in question at the moment.

Picture: Traffic
Actor: Hanks
Actress: Burstyn
Supporting Actor: Dafoe
Supporting Actress: Ziyi
Director: Lee
Original Screenplay: Almost Famous
Adapted Screenplay: Wonder Boys
Original Score: Crouching Tiger
Original Song: I’ve Seen It All
Film Editing: Requiem for a Dream
Cinematography: Crouching Tiger
Production Design: Cell
Costume Design: Cell
Makeup: Shadow of the Vampire
Sound: Cast Away
Sound Effects: Crouching Tiger
Visual Effects: Crouching Tiger
Foreign Film: Crouching Tiger
Documentary: Dark Days

British Academy of Film and Television Arts

(2/25/01)

As mainstream as the Academy, so it doesn’t seem like they’ll be too hesitant to follow suit.

History: No history available for research.

Film: Gladiator
British Film: Billy
Actor: Bell
Actress: Roberts
Supporting Actor: Del Toro
Supporting Actress: Walters
Most Promising British Newcomer: Pawel Pawlikowski
Director: Lee
Original Screenplay: Almost
Adapted Screenplay: Traffic
Original Score: Crouching
Cinematography: Gladiator
Editing: Gladiator
Production Design: Gladiator
Costume Design: Crouching
Sound: Almost
Visual Effects: Perfect Storm
Makeup/Hair: Grinch
Live-Action Short Film: Shadowscan
Animated Short Film: Father and Daughter
Foreign Film: Crouching

Art Directors Guild (Society of Motion Picture and Television Art Directors?)

(2/25/01)

Nothing terribly surprising. Gladiator shows its likelihood of sweeping lots of Oscars early.

History: If this is the same group as the SMPTAD, then the history is as follows. Otherwise, no such luck) There’s not much of a history to look back at. 1998 is the only year I have results for nominations. In 1998, they predicted all five nominees successfully. We’ll see next week what will happen this year.

Production Design, Period/Fantasy: Gladiator
Production Design, Contemporary: Chocolat

American Society of Cinematographers

(2/18/01)

Who knows what they were thinking. Perhaps it was because Deschanel is a well-respected Cinematographer and that he’s never won a ASC award they decided to throw him a bone. For whatever reason, the win doesn’t feel like it will repeat in March.

History: In their 14-year history, they’ve only gotten 5 right, so this isn’t the best of precursors.

Cinematography: The Patriot – Caleb Deschanel

Writers Guild of America

(2/8/01)

With the inclusion of most of the big contenders, this list seems more indicative of what the Academy may do in both these categories and the Top prize.

History: With the WGA, it seems they like to nominate 4 out of the 5 eventual Oscar nominees annually. This is the case for the past 3 years, information other than winners farther back is unknown. In 1997, they chose popular favorite Life Is Beautiful over independent WGA choice Opposite of Sex for Original Screenplay. Then in Adapted Screenplay, they chose veteran writer/director Terrence Malick for Thin Red Line over the more popular-minded Civil Action. In 1998, a similar thing occurred. Veteran writer/director Woody Allen received an Oscar nod for Deconstructing Harry over populistic Titanic for Original Screenplay. In the Adapted Screenplay category, they switched independent for independent choosing the more accomplished Atom Egoyan, a popular, but non-Picture nominated film over The Ice Storm, a considerably less popular film. In 1999, Three Kings was left out in favor of Topsy-Turvy and October Sky was replaced with The Green Mile. The odd boy out for Original Screenplay, will be Best In Show, possibly in favor of a more mainstream selection such as veteran David Mamet for State and Main or William Broyles for Cast Away. For Adapted Screenplay, High Fidelity seems a more subversive choice, I picture The House of Mirth or Quills sneaking in for nominations. Watch out for Chocolat which is making a rather strong showing and could be a surprise Best Picture Nominee.

Original Screenplay:
Almost Famous
Best in Show
Billy Elliot
Erin Brockovich
You Can Count on Me
Adapted Screnplay:
Chocolat
Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon
High Fidelity
Traffic
Wonder Boys

Makeup/Hairstylists Guild Awards

(2/8/01)

This relatively new guild is inexperienced and untested, though some of the finalists for the Oscars are on this list. We’ll have to watch for next year.

History: No history currently available.

Contemporary Makeup:
Bedazzled
Cast Away
Charlie’s Angels
Period Makeup:
Almost Famous
The Legend of Bagger Vance
The Patriot
Special Effects Makeup:
The Cell
How the Grinch Stole Christmas
Nutty Professor II: The Klumps
Contemporary Hair Styling:
Bedazzled
Charlie’s Angels
Erin Brockovich
Period Hair Styling:
Almost Famous
The Patriot
Thirteen Days
Innovative Hair Styling:
The Cell
How the Grinch Stole Christmas
Requiem for a Dream

Costume Designer’s Guild Awards

(2/8/01)

Like the Makeup/Hairstylist Guild, the CDG is relatively inexperienced in predicting, though with a lack of period/fantasy nominees, it seems that the CDG may see fewer of its selections mentioned at the Oscars, because contemporary is NOT a word the Academy Art Direction, Makeup and Costume Designers like.

History: No history currently available.

Contemporary Costume Design:
Charlie’s Angels
Erin Brockovich
High Fidelity
Traffic
X-Men
Period/Fantasy Costume Design:
Almost Famous
Chocolat
How the Grinch Stole Christmas
Quills

Online Film and Television Association Film Nominations

(2/6/01)

The only major surprise was the virtual igorance of Gladiator and the near-record nominations for Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon.

History: For nominations, in 1999, the OMPA predicted 54% of the nominees overall with 70% correct in the Screenplay categories and 60% right in the music categories. in 1998, the OMPA predicted 52% of the nominees overall with 80% correct in the Screenplay categories and 63.3% right in the Top 6 (picture, actor, actress, sup. actor, sup. actress, director). In 1997, the record was slightly better with 58.6% of the nominations correct with 73.3% of the Top 6 correct and 66.7% of the music categories correct. In 1996, their very first year, the OMPA correct predicted 59.6% of the nominees overall. Their best predictions came 70% in the Top 6, 64.7% in the technical categories and 60% in the writing. Not much to look on, but this year’s slate of nominees seem to be the prominent choices being pressed for Oscar recognition.

Nominees available at Online Film and Television Association

British Academy of Film and Television Arts

(2/3/01)

As mainstream as the Academy, so it doesn’t seem like they’ll be too hesitant to follow suit.

History: No history available for research.

Film: Almost, Billy, Crouching, Erin, Gladiator
British Film: Billy, Chicken Run, Mirth, Last Resort, Sexy Beast
Actor: Bell, Crowe, Douglas, Hanks, Rush
Actress: Binoche, Hudson, Roberts, Swank, Yeoh
Supporting Actor: Del Toro, Finney, Gary Lewis – Billy Elliot, Phoenix – Gladiator, Oliver Reed – Gladiator
Supporting Actress: Dench, McDormand, Olin, Walters, Ziyi
Most Promising British Newcomer: Daldry, Lee Hall, Pawel Pawlikowski, Simmon Cellan-Jones, Mark Crowdy
Director: Daldry, Lee, Scott, Soderbergh, Soderbergh
Original Screenplay: Almost, Billy, Erin, Gladiator, O Brother
Adapted Screenplay: Chocolat, Crouching, High Fidelity, Traffic, Wonder Boys
Original Score: Almost, Billy, Crouching, Gladiator, O Brother
Cinematography: Billy, Chocolat, Crouching, Gladiator, O Brother
Editing: Billy, Crouching, Erin, Gladiator, Traffic
Production Design: Chocolat, Crouching, Gladiator, O Brother, Quills
Costume Design: Chocolat, Crouching, Gladiator, O Brother, Quills
Sound: Almost, Billy, Crouching, Gladiator, Perfect Storm
Visual Effects: Chicken Run, Crouching, Gladiator, Perfect Storm, Vertical Limit
Makeup/Hair: Chocolat, Crouching, Grinch, Gladiator, Quills
Live-Action Short Film: Going Down, Je t’Aime John Wayne, The Last Post, Shadowscan, Sweet
Animated Short Film: Cloud Cover, Father and Daughter, Lounge Act, Six of One
Foreign Film: Crouching, Girl on the Bridge, Harry, He’s Here to Help, In the Mood for Love, Malena

Art Directors Guild (Society of Motion Picture and Television Art Directors)

(2/2/01)

History: If this is the same group as the SMPTAD, then the history is as follows. (Otherwise, no such luck) There’s not much of a history to look back at. 1998 is the only year I have results for nominations. In 1998, they predicted all five nominees successfully. We’ll see next week what will happen this year.

Production Design, Period/Fantasy:
The Cell
Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon
Dr. Seuss’ How the Grinch Stole Christmas
Gladiator
The Patriot
Production Design, Contemporary:
Almost Famous
Billy Elliot
Chocolat
The Perfect Storm
Wonder Boys

Cinema Audio Society

(1/30/01)

No surprises. U-571 would be the weakest link here, but a backlash against the Braveheart-wannabe The Patriot could force it out of a nomination.

History: Nominations beyond last year aren’t available, but in 1999, they picked 2 of the five eventual nominees. Only The Matrix and Star Wars Episode I managed to follow up with nominations. In 1998, they picked 3 out of the 5 eventual nominees. The X-Files and The Horse Whisperer are the odd nominees out, but they left out for hugely popular films. What would get left out is uncertain at this point, though The Patriot, U-571 and The Perfect Storm are the hardest choices.

Sound:
Cast Away
Gladiator
The Patriot
The Perfect Storm
U-571

Screen Actors Guild

(1/30/01)

Michael Douglas’ surprise exclusion at the hands of Supporting Actor contender Benicio Del Toro raises significant issues. Will Del Toro be forgotten because of voter confusion over lead/supporting status? The remaining nominations all seem plausible, though Jamie Bell’s nod is rather unsettling.

History: For predictions, the SAGs are hard to beat. For Best Actor, their record for nominations as been 4, 4, 5, 5, 4, 3 (1994, 95, 96, 97, 98, 99). This recent slump doesn’t seem to bode well for Bell, who may be an Academy darling, but because of his age may be difficult to nominate. Del Toro is also out, he’s being pushed as Supporting Actor, but voter confusion could seal his fate as a nominee altogether. For Actress, the record is 3, 4, 4, 4 (of 6), 4, 5. This slow progress towards perfection makes this year’s nominees almost guaranteed nominations, though any one could be knocked out in favor of Bjork or Gillian Anderson. The record for Supporting Actor: 4, 2, 2, 4, 4, 4. Barring those two years where only two successfully went on to Oscar nominations, this year’s slate seems to have only one weak link. Gary Oldman’s nomination is by far the least impressive. He probably will not carry on to a nomination and should easily be replaced by Del Toro if the Academy doesn’t vote split. As for Supporting Actress, the record is 2, 3, 2, 4, 5, 3. This doesn’t make for a very good record. The predictability is dangerously difficult. However, this year should see another set of four nominated with Kate Winslet as the odd-woman out.

Lead Actor: Jamie Bell, Russell Crowe, Benicio Del Toro, Tom Hanks, Geoffrey Rush
Lead Actress: Joan Allen, Juliette Binoche, Ellen Burstyn, Laura Linney, Julia Roberts
Supporting Actor: Jeff Bridges, Willem Dafoe, Albert Finney, Gary Oldman, Joaquin Phoenix – Gladiator
Supporting Actress: Judi Dench, Kate Hudson, Frances McDormand, Julie Walters, Kate Winslet
Ensemble Cast: Almost Famous, Billy Elliot, Chocolat, Gladiator, Traffic

American Society of Cinematographers

(1/29/01)

Only Crouching Tiger and Gladiator were truly expected. The others are rather surprising, but seemingly of questionable quality; probably nominated because they are career cinematographers with big names.

History: In 1999, only one nominee didn’t place In 1998, only one nominee didn’t didn’t place an Oscar nod. The Sixth Sense was replaced by End of the Affair. place an Oscar nod, that was Horse Whisperer. In 1997, the same happened with The Boxer. Look for one of the below nominees to be left out of the Oscar race for another film. Though, I doubt either O Brother or Perfect Storm will make it, The Patriot could easily be left out as well.

Cinematography:
Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon
Gladiator
O Brother, Where Art Thou?
The Patriot
The Perfect Storm

Broadcast Film Critics

(1/22/01)

Well, can’t say that I’m surprised. With this and the Golden Globe, a PGA win will cement Gladiator as the eventual Oscar winner, too bad we go another year without picking the TRUE best picture of the year.

History: See other Broadcast Film Critics awards below.

Picture: Gladiator

Directors Guild of America

(1/22/01)

Nothing shocking. This doesn’t look good for Soderbergh as a likely split will knock him out of an Oscar, giving Ridley Scott and unfair advantage. We’ll see how things pan out.

History: In 1999, four of the five went on to nominations. In 1998, all 5 picks of the DGA received Oscar nominations. In 1997, James L. Brooks and Steven Spielberg did not go on to Oscar nominations. Before that, figures are not available. Certain directors do enjoy an amount of recognition by pure popularity, such as in the case with Brooks and Spielberg. This year, Soderbergh could have been the overly popular choice.

Director:
Cameron Crowe – Almost Famous
Ang Lee – Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon
Ridley Scott – Gladiator
Steven Soderbergh – Erin Brockovich
Steven Soderbergh – Traffic

Golden Globes

(1/21/01)

Really, there were no major surprises. Only Zellweger and Clooney are not destined for Oscar nominations, the rest are almost certain.

History: There’s not much to say about the Golden Globes’ history. They’re great for nominees, but only in the main categories. Score is their worst category yielding very few nominees and not to mention very few successful winner predictions. Song isn’t their best, but they have been known to vault their winner to an Oscar. Screenplay is easy since there are two Oscar categories and one in the Globes. This means all of them COULD get nominations, but nothing is guaranteed at this point.

Motion Picture Drama: Gladiator
Motion Picture Comedy/Musical: Almost Famous
Drama Actor: Tom Hanks
Drama Actress: Julia Roberts
Comedy/Musical Actor: Clooney
Comedy/Musical Actress: Renee Zellweger
Supporting Actor: Benicio Del Toro
Supporting Actress: Kate Hudson
Director: Ang Lee – Crouching
Screenplay: Traffic
Original Score: Gladiator
Original Song: Things Have Changed
Foreign Film: Crouching Tiger

Chicago Film Critics

(1/18/01)

Overall not too surprising. The few surprises were more a tribute to the lack of serious contenders than from any bizarre voting ritual held by the group.

History: Not much can be said yet, since these are only nominations. Don’t trust this group too much on nominations, they aren’t always right and it’s hard to tell when they will or won’t be.

Picture: Almost Famous, Crouching Tiger, Traffic, Wonder Boys, You Can Count on Me
Actor: Bardem, Douglas, Hanks, Ruffalo, Rush
Actress: Allen, Bjork, Burstyn, Linney, Roberts
Supporting Actor: Jack Black – High Fidelity, Dafoe, Del Toro, Finney, Hoffman – Famous
Supporting Actress: Hudson, McDormand – Famous, Walters, Zeta-Jones, Ziyi
Director: Aronofsky – Requiem, Crowe – Famous, Lee – Crouching Tiger, Soderbergh – Traffic, Zemeckis – Cast Away
Screenplay: Almost Famous, Traffic, Wonder Boys, You Can Count on Me, State and Main
Foreign Film: Beau Travail, Crouching Tiger, The Girl on the Bridge, The Wind Will Carry Us, Yi Yi
Cinematography: Cast Away, O Brother, Gladiator, Crouching Tiger, Traffic
Most Promising Actor: Jamie Bell, Rob Brown, Patrick Fugit, Hugh Jackman, Tim Blake Nelson
Most Promising Actress: Bjork, Iben Hjejle, Kate Hudson, Michelle Rodriguez, Zhang Ziyi
Documentary: Dark Days, The Filth and the Fury, 42-Up, The Life and Times of Hank Greenberg, Original Kings of Comedy
Original Score: Dancer in the Dark, O Brother, Virgin Suicides, Crouching Tiger, Gladiator

American Cinema Editors

(1/17/01)

The inclusion of the abysmally edited Gladiator gives us an indication that Gladiator is the likely Best Picture winner this year. Elliot’s nomination is the biggest surprise inclusion and the biggest surprise exclusion is the fantastic editing of Requiem for a Dream…so much for good taste.

History: Like most guild awards, the ACE is known for getting at least 4 of the 5 nominations correct. ’99 saw The Talented Mr. Ripley get replaced by The Cider House Rules. ’98 saw Horse Whisperer get replaced by Life Is Beautiful, but all of 1997’s selections were nominated. The record back as far as I can find indicates they have a 3 for 3 record of successful winner predictions. We’ll see how this continues this year.

Drama Film Editing:
Billy Elliot
Cast Away
Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon
Gladiator
Traffic
Comedy Film Editing:
Almost Famous
Best In Show
Chocolat
O Brother, Where Art Thou?
Shanghai Noon

Satellites

(1/15/01)

History: The Satellites are definitely not known yet for their accuracy. They have no perfect categories, but plenty of years where the successfully predicted 2 out of 3 winners. Supporting Actress and Foreign Film are their worst categories, yielding no correct predictions.

Motion Picture Drama: Traffic
Motion Picture Comedy/Musical: Nurse Betty
Drama Actor: Rush – Quills
Drama Actress: Burstyn – Requiem
Comedy/Musical Actor: Douglas
Comedy/Musical Actress: Zellweger – Nurse Betty
Drama Supporting Actor: Greenwood – Thirteen
Drama Supp. Actress: Ehle & Harris – Sunshine
Comedy/Musical Supp. Actor: Dafoe – Vampire
Comedy/Musical Supp. Actress: Hudson – Famous
Director: Soderbergh – Traffic
Original Screenplay: You Can Count on Me
Adapted Screenplay: Quills
Foreign Language Film: Crouching
Animated/Mixed-Media Picture: Chicken Run
Documentary: Reckless Indifference
Production Design: Mirth
Cinematography: Gladiator
Costume Design: Grinch
Film Editing: Thirteen Days
Original Score: Gladiator
Original Song: I’ve Seen It All
Sound: Dinosaur
Visual Effects: Gladiator
Ensemble Cast Performance: Traffic
Outstanding New Talent: Rob Brown – Finding Forrester

Independent Spirit Nominations

(1/12/01)

An interesting selection with plenty of this year’s Oscar contenders mixed in. More so than usual because of the unusually difficult year to make selections.

History: Not the place to look for potential Oscar nominees until winners are selected, unfortunately, winners aren’t selected until AFTER the nominations, so they can’t be used for much of a guage at all.

Feature: Before Night Falls, Crouching Tiger, George Washington, Ghost Dog, Requiem
First Feature (Over $500,000): Boiler Room, Girlfight, Love & Basketball, The Visit, You Can Count on Me
First Feature (Under $500,000): Bunny, Chuck & Buck, Everything Put Together, Groove, Our Song
Director: Lee – Crouching, Christopher Guest – Best in Show, Aronofsky – Requiem, Julian Schnabel – Before Night, Miguel Arteta – Chuck & Buck
Actor: Bardem – Before, Adrien Brody – Restaurant, Billy Crudup – Jesus’ Son, Hill Harper – Visit, Mark Ruffalo – You Can
Actress: Allen – Contender, Burstyn – Requiem, Sanaa Latham – Love & Basketball, Linney – You Can, Kelly MacDonald – Two Family House
Screenplay: Love & Sex, Two Family House, Waking the Dead, You Can Count on Me, Chuck & Buck
Debut Screenplay: George Washington, Tigerland, Love & Basketball, The Visit, Boiler Room
Supporting Actor: Dafoe – Shadow, Cole Hauser – Tigerland, Gary Oldman – Contender, Giovanni Ribisi – Gift, Billy Dee Williams – Visit
Supporting Actress: Pat Carroll – Songcatcher, Jennifer Connelly – Requiem, Harden – Pollock, Ontiveros – Chuck, Zhang Ziyi – Crouching Tiger
Debut Performance: Rory Culkin – You Can Count on Me, Emmy Rossum – Songcatcher, Mike White – Chuck & Buck, Candace Evanofski – George, Curtis Cotton III – George, Damian Jewan Lee – George, Donald Holden – George, Rachael Handy – George
Cinematography: Shadow of the Vampire, Hamlet, Requiem, George Washington, Before Night
Foreign Film: Dancer in the Dark, In the Mood for Love, Terrorist, Time for Drunken Horses, War Zone
Documentary: Dark Days, Eyes of Tammy Faye, Long Night’s Journey Into Day, Paragraph 175, Sound and Fury

Golden Laurel Awards (Producers Guild of America)

(1/10/01)

A pretty astute list that favors Soderbergh’s Erin Brockovich over Traffic. This could very well be the eventual list, but there are definitely no guarantees.

History: In the record books, the PGA is generally accurate. In 1999, only Being John Malkovich and The Hurricane failed to get nominations. In 1998, Gods and Monsters and Waking Ned Devine didn’t get Oscar nominations, but the other nods did. In 1997, only Amistad didn’t go on to a nomination. Overall, they seem to be stalled at 3 of 5 nominations. Of the ones below, Gladiator and Crouching Tiger seem to be the most guaranteed. That would mean that I could easily see either Almost Famous or Billy Elliot being the third, maybe even fourth. We’ll see in February.

Picture
Almost Famous
Billy Elliot
Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon
Erin Brockovich
Gladiator

Kansas City Film Critics Circle

(1/10/01)

The list below is becoming a common site around the Critics groups. Burstyn and Hudson are big among smaller critics groups. Soderbergh, Crouching Tiger, The Life and Times of Hank Greenberg and Del Toro are huge all over.

History: History currently unavailable.

Picture: Traffic
Actor: Rush
Actress: Burstyn
Supporting Actor: Del Toro
Supporting Actress: Hudson
Director: Soderbergh – Traffic
Documentary: Hank Greenberg
Animated Film: Chicken Run
Foreign Film: Crouching Tiger

Goya Award Nominations

(1/10/01)

They may not have much to do with American films, but the Goyas have a category for European films and two hot contenders for the Oscars are nominated: Palme d’Or winner Dancer in the Dark and animation sensation Chicken Run. Encuentros is a film by Ingmar Bergman starlet Liv Ullman

History: History currently unavailable.

European Film: Dancer in the Dark, Chicken Run, Encuentros privados, East Is East

Southeast Film Critics Association

(1/8/01)

History: History currently unavailable.

Picture: Almost Famous
Actor: Bardem & Douglas
Actress: Burstyn
Supporting Actor: Del Toro
Supporting Actress: McDormand – Famous
Director: Soderbergh – Traffic
Original Screenplay: Almost Famous
Adapted Screenplay: Traffic
Foreign Film: Crouching Tiger

Top 10 Films of 2000

Almost Famous
Traffic
Chicken Run
Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon
You Can Count on Me
Requiem for a Dream
Dancer in the Dark
Wonder Boys
Erin Brockovich
Croupier
Gladiator

Toronto Film Critics Association

(1/8/01)

Crouching Tiger takes further steps towards an Oscar nomination. Tobey Maguire’s status is improved, but still isn’t that great.

History: Unknown history.

Picture: Crouching Tiger
Actor: Del Toro
Actress: Linney
Supporting Actor: Tobey Maguire – Wonder Boys, Jeffrey Wright – Shaft
Supporting Actress: Zhang Ziyi
Director: Soderbergh – Traffic
Screenplay: You Can Count on Me

Las Vegas Film Critics Society

(1/8/01)

Brockovich picks up its first award and the first victory for the haphazard editing of Gladiator should provide some surprising worries.

History: Unknown history.

Picture: Erin Brockovich
Actor: Rush
Actress: Burstyn
Supporting Actor: Del Toro
Supporting Actress: Hudson
Director: Soderbergh – Traffic, Brockovich
Original Screenplay: Erin Brockovich
Adapted Screenplay: Wonder Boys
Foreign Film: Girl on the Bridge
Cinematography: O Brother
Film Editing: Gladiator
Original Score: Gladiator
Original Song: Things Have Changed – Wonder Boys
Family Film: Chicken Run
Documentary: Hank Greenberg
Costume Design: O Brother
Visual Effects: O Brother
Male Newcomer: Rob Brown – Finding Forrester
Female Newcomer: Karyn Kusama & Michelle Rodriguez – Girlfight
Youth in Film: Jamie Bell – Billy Elliot

Dallas-Fort Worth Film Critics Association

(1/8/01)

The second group to single out Soderbergh for a particular film. Also the first group to recognize Finney for Supporting Actor, a likely Academy favorite. Nothing else unusual or particularly prediction-enhancing.

History: Unknown history.

Picture: Traffic
Actor: Crowe
Actress: Linney
Supporting Actor: Finney
Supporting Actress: Hudson
Director: Soderbergh – Traffic
Screenplay: You Can Count on Me
Foreign Film: Crouching Tiger
Cinematography: Crouching Tiger
Animated Film: Chicken Run

National Society of Film Critics

(1/6/01)

A curve ball like no others. The NSFC doesn’t seem to WANT to predict Best Picture. The rest are all falling into place except May who’s not a huge contender and Beau Travail for Cinematography.

History: Historically, the NSFC is a terrible predictor. Less than 20% of the time have they ever been right. This average has slipped heavily in the last 5 to only about 10%. The best categories for the past five years have been Actor, Supporting Actress, Screenplay, Cinematography and Documentary with a scant 1 out of 5 correct predictions. Their worst are Picture, Actress, Supporting Actor, Director, Cinematography and Foreign Film receiving no correct predictions. These averages improve only slightly going back 10 years with Screenplay being successful 3 out of the 10 times for the best and only Foreign Language Film receiving 0 correct predictions. The best way to tell not to look to the NSFC for winners is that only 8 times in 33 outings have they correctly predicted the Supporting Actress category and that is their BEST category.

Picture: Yi Yi
Actor: Bardem
Actress: Linney
Supporting Actor: Del Toro
Supporting Actress: Elaine May – Small Time Crooks
Director: Soderbergh – Traffic, Brockovich
Screenplay: You Can Count on Me
Documentary: Greenberg
Cinematography: Beau Travail
Experimental Film: The Heart of the World
Special Citation: Michelangelo Antonioni
Special Film Heritage Awards: National Film Preservation Archive

Florida Film Critics

(1/5/01)

With Burstyn, Del Toro and McDormand locks, Soderbergh continues to confuse over which film he will be nominated for at the Oscars. Some pundits predict him taking two nominations, but more savvy Oscar connoisseurs are doubtful through lack of recent precedent.

History: The Florida Film Critics have a strange record. When all of the critics groups start supporting one candidate, they go off and make their own mark. While Traffic is not an unusual choice this year, it is still a film that seems unlikely to garner an Oscar for Picture. Last year, their choice of Magnolia was bold and unvaunted as the film went on to collect sadly few nominations and no picture nod. The two years prior, however, the FFC were the first to send both Titanic and Shakespeare in Love an award and then the Oscar for Picture. A pattern isn’t developing, but it’s interesting nonetheless.

Picture: Traffic
Actor: Rush
Actress: Burstyn
Supporting Actor: Del Toro
Supporting Actress: McDormand – Almost, Wonder
Director: Soderbergh – Traffic, Erin
Screenplay: State and Main
Documentary: Hank Greenberg
Foreign Film: Crouching Tiger
Cinematography: Crouching Tiger
Animated Feature: Chicken Run
Ensemble: State and Main
Newcomer of the Year: Kate Hudson
Soundtrack and Score: O Brother

Online Film Critics Society

(1/2/01)

“Critical meets popular” typifies this year’s Online Film Critics Society Awards. With Cast Away’s Tom Hanks standing shoulder to shoulder with Requiem for a Dream makes for an interestin slate of selections. Many are bold choices, while others seem to be the norms this year.

History: Best Director may have become a losing category for the OFCS with their choice of Requiem for a Dream. They have successfully predicted the winner since its innception, but may fall short. Overall, the OFCS has a decent record compared to other awards, but their accuracy may be called into question with such bold choices, especially considering their steady decrease of accuracy each year since their inception.

Picture: Almost Famous
Actor: Hanks – Cast Away
Actress: Burstyn – Requiem for a Dream
Supporting Actor: Del Toro – Traffic & Hoffman – Almost Famous
Supporting Actress: Hudson – Almost Famous
Ensemble: Almost Famous & State and Main
Director: Darren Aronofsky – Requiem for a Dream
Screenplay: Almost Famous
Original Score: Requiem for a Dream
Cinematography: Crouching Tiger
Editing: Requiem for a Dream
Debut: Bjork – Dancer in the Dark
Foreign Film: Crouching Tiger
Documentary: The Filth and the Fury

Top 10 Films of 2000

Almost Famous
Requiem for a Dream
Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon
Dancer in the Dark
Traffic
Gladiator
Quills
Wonder Boys
Chicken Run
Erin Brockovich

Online Film Critics Society

(12/30/01)

A very interesting list. It contains many of the front-runners and several newcomers. This could be an interesting year for the OFCS.

History: Their nomination capability is spotty at best. Their choices for winners are slowly becoming more likely Oscar nominees. Watch out for the director award, the OFCS has successfully predicted Best Director 3 years in a row…too bad they haven’t picked a single concurrent winner in the categories of Actress, Supp. Actor, Supp. Actress, Original Screenplay, Adapted Screenplay, Original Score or Documentary.

Picture: Almost Famous, Crouching Tiger, Dancer in the Dark, Requiem for a Dream, Traffic
Actor: Christian Bale, Crowe – Gladiator, Douglas – Wonder Boys, Hanks, Rush
Actress: Allen – Contender, Bjork, Burstyn, Linney, Roberts
Supporting Actor: Jack Black – High Fidelity, Dafoe, del Toro, Finney, Hoffman – Almost, Phoenix – Gladiator
Supporting Actress: Connelly – Requiem, Hudson – Hudson, May – Small Time, McDormand – Almost, Zhang Ziyi – Crouching
Ensemble: Almost, Requiem, State and Main, Traffic, Wonder Boys
Director: Aronofsky – Requiem, Crowe – Almost, Lee – Crouching, Soderbergh – Traffic, von Trier – Dancer
Screenplay: Almost Famous, Quills, State and Main, Traffic, Wonder Boys, You Can Count on Me
Original Score: Crouching, Dancer, Gladiator, O Brother, Requiem
Cinematography: Crouching, Gladiator, O Brother, Requiem, Traffic
Editing: Crouching, Dancer, Gladiator, Requiem, Traffic
Cinematic Debut/Breakthrough: Bell – Billy, Bjork – Dancer, Patrick Fugit – Almost, Hudson – Almost, Michelle Rodriguez – Girlfight
Foreign Film: Color of Paradise, Crouching, Girl on the Brige, Shower, Yi Yi
Documentary: Dark Days, Eyes of Tammy Faye, Filth and the Fury, Hank Greenberg, One Day in September

Golden Globes

(12/21/01)

Populism is balanced with newness. This year’s Golden Globes only make predicting the Oscars more difficuult. With no mention of Quills, there are a lot of things that can be found in the nominations, but nothing is more sure than the veritable lack of support in Comedy/Musical, means this year’s crop is heavily Dramatic and most of our nominees will come from those categories (which isn’t terribly unusual, but more so this year than any.)

Motion Picture Drama: Billy Elliot, Erin Brockovich, Gladiator, Sunshine, Traffic, Wonder Boys
Motion Picture Comedy/Musical: Almost Famous, Best in Show, Chicken Run, Chocolat, O Brother
Drama Actor: Bardem, Crowe, Douglas, Hanks, Rush
Drama Actress: Allen, Bjork, Burstyn, Linney, Roberts
Comedy/Musical Actor: Carrey – Grinch, Clooney, Cusack – Fidelity, De Niro, Gibson
Comedy/Musical Actress: Binoche, Blethyn, Bullock, Ullman, Zellweger
Supporting Actor: Bridges, Dafoe, Del Toro, Finney, Phoenix (Gladiator)
Supporting Actress: Dench, Hudson, McDormand (Famous), Walters, Zeta-Jones – Traffic
Director: Crouching, Erin Brockovich, Gladiator, Sunshine, Traffic
Screenplay: Almost Famous, Traffic, Wonder Boys, You Can Count on Me, Quills
Original Score: Crouching, Sunshine, Malena, Chocolat, All the Pretty Horses, Gladiator
Original Song: I’ve Seen It All, My Funny Friend and Me, One in a Million – Miss Congeniality, Things Have Changed, When You Come Back to Me Again – Frequency
Foreign Film: Amores Perros – Mexico, Crouching, Hundred Steps – Italy, Malena – Italy, Widow of St. Pierre – France

San Diego Film Critics

(12/21/01)

Shadow of the Vampire makes its first major showing of the year with several notable runner-up awards. Adapted Screenplay is like a Miramax showcase with both winner and runner-up films being pushed by Miramax.

History: San Diego has made some nice choices in the past, but they are quite bad at predicting…even for nominations. 1999: Picture, Actor and Original Screenplay were eventual winners last year.

Picture: Almost Famous
Runner Up: Billy Elliot
Actor: Crowe – Gladiator
Runner Up: Ruffalo
Actress: Tie: Linney & Roberts
Runner Up: Zellweger
Supporting Actor: Del Toro
Runner Up: Dafoe
Supporting Actress: McDormand – Famous
Runner Up: Dench
Director: Crowe – Famous
Runner Up: E. Elias Merhige – Shadow of the Vampire
Original Screenplay: Almost Famous
Runner Up: Shadow of the Vampire
Adapted Screenplay: Chocolat
Runner Up: All the Pretty Horses
Foreign Film: Color of Paradise – Iran
Runner Up: Crouching Tiger
Cinematography: Gladiator
Runner Up: Crouching Tiger
Body of Work: Joaquin Phoenix – Gladiator, The Yards, Quills

Broadcast Film Critics

(12/19/01)

What a traditional list. It is becoming more apparent with each group that the list of nominees will include Roberts, Phoenix, McDormand and Soderbergh.

History: This is the group to pay attention to for nominations predictions. In the four years I’ve tracked them, the BFCA has taken every single major (Picture, Actor, Actress, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Director, Screenplay, Song and Score) winner and turned it into an Oscar nomination (only exception involves a tie in the Sup. Actress category when Joan Allen and Bates tied for the win. Bates took an Oscar nod, perpetuating their record, Allen did not). And in the past three years, all of the eventual best picture nominees have been included on the BFCA list. Here’s how the winner predictions stacked up: 1999: Picture, Actress, Sup. Actress, Director, Orig. Screenplay and Foreign Film. 1998: Director, Orig. Screenplay and Foreign Film winners took home Oscars; 1997: Actor, Director, Adap. Screenplay and Orig. Screenplay winners took home Oscars; 1996: Actor, Actress, Sup. Actor and Director winnesr took home Oscars. Now, this isn’t the best of precursors for actual winners, but for nominations, this is EASILY the best. Now, watch out…the BFCA is HORRIBLE at predicting Best Picture. In the past four years, 1999 is the only year its submitted the winning Picture or Supporting Actress.

Picture: Almost Famous, Billy Elliot, Cast Away, Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon, Erin Brockovich, Gladiator, Quills, Thirteen Days, Traffic, Wonder Boys, You Can Count on Me
Actor: Russell Crowe – Gladiator
Actress: Julia Roberts – Erin Brockovich
Supporting Actor: Joaquin Phoenix – Quills, The Yards, Gladiator
Supporting Actress: Frances McDormand – Wonder Boys, Almost Famous
Director: Steven Soderbergh – Erin Brockovich, Traffic
Adapted Screenplay: Tie: Wonder Boys & Traffic
Original Screenplay: Almost Famous
Breakthrough Performer: Kate Hudson – Almost Famous
Child Performer: Jamie Bell – Billy Elliot
Animated Feature: Chicken Run
Cinematography: Gladiator
Production Design: Gladiator
Family Film: My Dog Skip
Inanimate Object: Wilson the Volleyball – Cast Away
Documentary: The Life and Times of Hank Greenberg
Foreign Film: Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon
Song: My Funny Friend and Me – The Emperor’s New Groove
Score: Hans Zimmer – Gladiator, Mission: Impossible 2, The Road to El Dorado

Satellites

(12/19/01)

International Press Academy, an off-shoot of the Hollywood Foreign Press Association, have strived to stand out as the leaders of the pre-Oscar season. This year, however, it seems like they’ve gone overboard. Six choices not only makes the group look giving, but it makes the choices all the more convoluted. It seems as though the worst year in recent film memory is turning out to be one of the worst for predictions. Everything’s up in the air and it’s not going to be easy. Decipering these nominations is a task and one that can’t be taken lightly. Their nomination history is checkered and with so many categories, who knows how they’ll do.

History: Here is how the satellites have fared in the awards: Dipping further each year, the SAT have been only 41.5% accurate. The categories they’ve gone 3 for 4 in are: Actress and Adapted Screenplay. They’ve gone 0/4 in the Supporting Actress category.

Motion Picture Drama: Billy Elliot, Dancer, Brockovich, Gladiator, Quills, Traffic
Motion Picture Comedy/Musical: Famous, Best in Show, Nurse Betty, O Brother, Where Art Thou?, State and Main, Wonder Boys
Drama Actor: Jamie Bell – Elliot, Connery – Forrester, Crowe – Gladiator, Harris – Pollock, Rush – Quills, Washington – Titans
Drama Actress: Allen – Contender, Anderson – Mirth, Bjork – Dancer in the Dark, Burstyn – Requiem, Linney, Roberts
Comedy/Musical Actor: Clooney – O Brother, Douglas, Gere – Dr. T, Guest – Best in Show, Murphy – Nutty Professor II, Norton – Keeping the Faith
Comedy/Musical Actress: Blethyn – Saving, Bullock – Congeniality, Close – 102, Diaz – Charlie’s, Elfman – Faith, Zellweger – Nurse Betty
Drama Supporting Actor: Bridges – Contender, De Niro – Men of Honor, Del Toro, Finney – Brockovich, Greenwood – Thirteen, Phoenix – Gladiator
Drama Supp. Actress: Dench – Chocolat, Deneuve – Dancer, Ehle & Harris – Sunshine, Morton – Jesus’ Son, Walters – Elliot, Winslet – Quills
Comedy/Musical Supp. Actor: Dafoe – Vampire, Freeman – Betty, Hoffman – Famous, Nelson – O Brother, Pitt – Snatch, Wilson – Shanghai
Comedy/Musical Supp. Actress: Hudson – Famous, Hunter – O Brother, McDormand – Famous, O’Hara – Best in Show, Pidgeon – State and Main, Tomei – Women Want
Director: Crowe – Famous, Kaufman – Quills, Lee – Tiger, Scott – Gladiator, Soderbergh – Brockovich, Soderbergh – Traffic
Original Screenplay: Famous, Elliot, Brockovich, State and Main, You Can Count on Me
Adapted Screenplay: House of Mirth, O Brother, Quills, Thirteen Days, Traffic
Foreign Language Film: Crouching, Goya in Bordeaux, His Wife’s Diary, Malena, Shower, The Terrorist
Animated/Mixed-Media Picture: Chicken Run, Dinosaur, New Groove, Rugrats in Paris, Titan A.E.
Documentary: Captured on Film, Dark Days, Eyes of Tammy Faye, Into the Arms of Strangers, One Day in September, Reckless Indifference
Production Design: Crouching, Grinch, Gladiator, Mirth, Traffic
Cinematography: Crouching, Gladiator, Bagger Vance, Mission: Impossible, Traffic
Costume Design: Crouching, Grinch, Gladiator, Mirth, Patriot
Film Editing: Crouching, Gladiator, Mission: Impossible, Thirteen Days, Traffic
Original Score: Gladiator, Bagger Vance, Malena, Proof of Life, Traffic
Original Song: A Fool in Love, I’ve Seen It All, My Funny Friend and Me, Things Have Changed, Yours Forever
Sound: Chicken Run, Crouching, Dinosaur, Mission: Impossible, Perfect Storm
Visual Effects: Charlie’s Angels, Grinch, Gladiator, Mission: Impossible, Vertical Limit
Ensemble Cast Performance: Traffic
Outstanding New Talent: Rob Brown – Finding Forrester

Boston Society of Film Critics

(12/17/99)

Almost Famous finally gets the support it needs to pull a picture nomination. It is more of a likely DreamWorks choice than Gladiator, but could end up falling aside. Ellen Burstyn finally came into view as one of the surefire nominees this year and an obvious sentimental favorite. Crowe makes a play for director while Almost Famous and Wonder Boys split the Screenplay award (strangely, one is Original and one Adapted).

History: I don’t have the history of the BSFC, but from the past few years, here’s what I’ve gathered. In 1999, nominations fell in five categories: Supporting Actress, Screenplay, Cinematography and eventual winners for Actress and Foreign Film. In 1998, Billy Bob Thornton and Cinematographer Janusz Kaminski were the only ones to go on to Oscar nominations. In 1997, they were a little more successful: Picture, Actress, Director, Screenplay and Cinematography went on to Oscar nominations. Unlike 1998, one of their choices won the Oscar: Screenplay. Then, in 1996, Picture, Actor, Actress, Director and Cinematography all received Oscar nominations. Only Cinematography and Actor won. Not the best of predictors by any means, but they do traditionally pick five nominees (save their bad year), so those are looking like better bets all the time.

Picture: Almost Famous
Actor: Colin Farrell – Tigerland
Actress: Ellen Burstyn – Requiem for a Dream
Supporting Actor: Fred Willard – Best in Show
Supporting Actress: Frances McDormand – Almost Famous, Wonder Boys
Director: Cameron Crowe – Almost Famous
Screenplay: Tie: Almost Famous & Wonder Boys
Cinematography: Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon
Foreign Language Film: Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon
Documentary: The Eyes of Tammy Faye
New Filmmaker: Ken Lonergan – You Can Count on Me

Los Angeles Film Critics Association

(12/16/99)

Crouching Tiger hit it big with the LAFCA. With four awards, it was the film-to-beat from LA. They continued to push Steven Soderbergh into a director lock and pushing Julia Roberts closer. Willem Dafoe finally blips on the screen alongside Frances McDormand and Micahel Douglas who are all considered Top contenders, but critics awards push them farther.

History: Overall, the LAFCA has been one of the more accurate organizations, but with only about a 36% accuracy. In the past 10 years, however, their rating has signicantly dropped to around one-quarter. Screenplay is their best predicting category with 3 in the last five years (dropping from 4/5 the previous year), but only 5 in the last 10. In five years, they have yet to pick Picture, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress or Score, while only Score has received no awards in 10 years. Not since 1993 have they successfully predicted more than 50% of the awards and since then, their best year was ’94 with 36% and their worst 1998, 1997 and 1995 getting only 2 out of 12 awards right.

Picture: Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon
Runner-Up: Wonder Boys
Actor: Michael Douglas – Wonder Boys
Runner-Up: Javier Bardem – Before Night Falls
Actress: Julia Roberts – Erin Brockovich
Runner-Up: Laura Linney – You Can Count on Me
Supporting Actor: Willem Dafoe – Shadow of the Vampire
Runner-Up: Benicio Del Toro – Traffic
Supporting Actress: Frances McDormand – Almost Famous, Wonder Boys
Runner-Up: Zhang Ziyi – Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon
Director: Steven Soderbergh – Erin Brockovich, Traffic
Runner-Up: Ang Lee – Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon
Screenplay: You Can Count on Me
Runner-Up: Wonder Boys
Cinematography: Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon
Runner-Up: Traffic
Foreign Language Film: Yi Yi (A One and a Two)
Runner-Up: Girl on the Bridge
Documentary: Dark Days
Runner-Up: The Life and Times of Hank Greenberg
Production Design: Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon
Runner-Up: The House of Mirth
Music Score: Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon
Runner-Up: Dancer in the Dark
New Generationn Award: Mark Ruffalo
Animation (Feature-Length): Chicken Run
Career Achievement: Conrad L. Hall

New York Film Critics Circle

(12/13/01)

What could only be seen as a hodge-podge of American cinema, the New York Film Critics Circle avoided awarding but Traffic and You Can Count on Me multiple times. Tom Hanks’ surprise nomination has pretty much been guaranteed and Laura Linney’s victory further’s her already great chances. Del Toro pushes further into the Supporting Actor race while a surprise choice of Marcia Gay Harden in Supporting Actress has put her on the map. The films You Can Count on Me and Traffic have taken a good trek onto the path of nominations. The bad news is for Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon which needed desparate critical support in Best Picture contests to crack the difficult Top spot at the Oscars. It’s not a common occurrence for a foreign film to make the trip to Best Picture and New York film critics have not made that journey easier.

History: A pretty good average for precursors, but not extremely great. Just over a third of the time ever have they coincided with the Oscars. Their average rose last year to 24% in the last 10 years and dipped to 20% in the last five. Screenplay has been their best category in the past 5 and 10 years with three-fifths predicted exactly. They are, however, quite bad at predicting Foreign Film, Picture, Director and Cinematography. In the past 10 years, only one correct prediction each for Director, Cinematography and Foreign Film; In the past 5 years, no correct predictions for either Picture, Director or Cinematography. In the past 10 years, here is how good they are at predicting nominations: All picture except The Player in ’92 and Topsy-Turvy in ’99; All actors save David Thewlis in ’93; Actress has been a sore spot with Cameron Diaz in ’98, Jennifer Jason-Leigh in ’95 and Linda Fiorentino in ’94; No supporting actor nods in ’99, ’98, ’96 or ’91; No supporting actress nods (their worst category) in ’98, ’96, ’93, ’91 or ’90; No director nods in ’99 or ’96; No screenplay in ’96, ’91 or ’90.

Picture: Traffic
Actor: Tom Hanks – Cast Away
Actress: Laura Linney – You Can Count on Me
Supporting Actor: Benicio Del Toro – Traffic
Supporting Actress: Marcia Gay Harden – Pollock
Director: Steven Soderbergh – Erin Brockovich, Traffic
Cinematographer: Peter Pau – Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon
Foreign Film: Yi Yi (A One and a Two)
Screenplay: Ken Lonergan – You Can Count on Me
First Film: George Washington
Animated Film: Chicken Run
Non-Fiction Film: The Life and Times of Hank Greenberg
Special Award: Jules Dassin, director of Rififi
Special Award: The Shooting Gallery

National Board of Review

(12/6/01)

The results are in and with the exception of Quills, Julia Roberts and Joaquin Phoenix, there’s not a lot to point at. Phoenix and Quills itself become more likely every day, but require better support to continue. Julia Roberts virtually cements her place on the final list with this selection. The rest of the choices could be thrown away and never missed by many prognosticators.

History: The NBR is not known for accuracy. In its 56-year history, they have an accuracy rate around one-quarter. Their best category is one that hadn’t been seen since 1951. Screenplay only became Top after a victory last year and the loss of both the Actor and Supporting Actress trophies. The accuracy rate is so abysmal that nothing it posts will likely figure into the final tally, despite a brief resurgence last year with three of nine matching. For the record, 1998 saw no accurate predictions and 1997 saw only one.