77th Academy Awards (2004): Winner Predictions

AWARDS

6
2



1








The Aviator
The Incredibles
Lemony Snicket’s A Series of Unfortunate Events
Million Dollar Baby
Ray
Austism Is a World
Birthday Boy
Born Into Brothels
The Chorus
Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind
Finding Neverland
Little Terrorist
The Polar Express
Sideways
Spider-Man 2

Predictions are in the order I think they have a chance of winning the award (except the short film categories, which are unranked and each listed as “Toss Up”). I have added notations to each indicating how strong I think they are a contender.

LEGEND:
Winner Prediction (c-Win Pred Date Set) — Chance at Win —
Other Nominees — Chance at Win —

Best Picture

  • The Aviator (c-12/12) — Even —
  • Million Dollar Baby — Even —
  • Sideways -2:1- — 2:1 —
  • Ray — 7:1 —
  • Finding Neverland — 15:1 —

Best Animated Feature

  • The Incredibles (c-6/24) — 1:3 —
  • Shrek 2 — 3:1 —
  • Shark Tale — 20:1 —

Best Director

  • The Aviator – Martin Scorsese (c-6/24) — Even —
  • Million Dollar Baby – Clint Eastwood — Even —
  • Sideways – Alexander Payne — 4:1 —
  • Ray – Taylor Hackford — 10:1 —
  • Vera Drake – Mike Leigh — 10:1 —

Best Actor

  • Ray – Jamie Foxx (c-11/4) — 1:3 —
  • Million Dollar Baby – Clint Eastwood — 3:2 —
  • The Aviator – Leonardo DiCaprio — 2:1 —
  • Hotel Rwanda – Don Cheadle — 5:1 —
  • Finding Neverland – Johnny Depp — 10:1 —

Best Actress

  • Million Dollar Baby – Hilary Swank (c-2/6) — Even —
  • Vera Drake – Imelda Staunton — 3:2 —
  • Being Julia – Annette Bening — 2:1 —
  • Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind – Kate Winslet — 3:1 —
  • Maria Full of Grace – Catalina Sandino Moreno — 10:1 —

Best Supporting Actor

  • Million Dollar Baby – Morgan Freeman (c-2/6) — Even —
  • Sideways – Thomas Haden Church — 3:2 —
  • Closer – Clive Owen — 3:2 —
  • The Aviator – Alan Alda — 5:1 —
  • Collateral – Jamie Foxx — 10:1 —

Best Supporting Actress

  • The Aviator – Cate Blanchett (c-1/12) — Even —
  • Sideways – Virginia Madsen — Even —
  • Kinsey – Laura Linney — 3:2 —
  • Hotel Rwanda – Sophie Okonedo — 3:1 —
  • Closer – Natalie Portman — 5:1 —

Best Original Screenplay

  • Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind – Charlie Kaufman (c-1/12) — Even —
  • The Incredibles – Brad Bird — Even —
  • The Aviator – John Logan — 3:2 —
  • Hotel Rwanda – Keir Pearson, Terry George — 3:1 —
  • Vera Drake – Mike Leigh — 7:1 —

Best Adapted Screenplay

  • Sideways – Alexander Payne, Jim Taylor (c-2/23) — Even —
  • Million Dollar Baby – Paul Haggis — Even —
  • The Motorcycle Diaries – Jose Rivera — 3:1 —
  • Finding Neverland – David Magee — 5:1 —
  • Before Sunset – Richard Linklater, Julie Delpy, Ethan Hawke, Kim Krizan — 7:1 —

Best Original Song

  • The Polar Express – Believe (c-1/25) — Even —
  • The Phantom of the Opera – Learn to Be Lonely — 3:2 —
  • Shrek 2 – Accidentally in Love — 3:2 —
  • The Motorcycle Diaries – Al Otro Lado del Rio — 4:1 —
  • The Chorus – Look To Your Path — 5:1 —

Best Original Score

  • Finding Neverland – Jan A.P. Kaczmarek (c-1/25) — Even —
  • Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban – John Williams — 3:2 —
  • Lemony Snicket’s A Series of Unfortunate Events – Thomas Newman — 3:2 —
  • The Passion of the Christ – John Debney — 5:2 —
  • The Village – James Newton Howard — 7:1 —

Best Editing

  • The Aviator (c-2/23) — Even —
  • Million Dollar Baby — Even —
  • Ray — 3:1 —
  • Finding Neverland — 5:1 —
  • Collateral — 7:1 —

Best Cinematography

  • The Aviator (c-6/24) — Even —
  • House of Flying Daggers — 3:2 —
  • The Passion of the Christ — 2:1 —
  • A Very Long Engagement — 5:1 —
  • The Phantom of the Opera — 10:1 —

Best Art Direction

  • Lemony Snicket’s A Series of Unfortunate Events (c-1/25) — Even —
  • The Aviator — Even —
  • The Phantom of the Opera — Even —
  • Finding Neverland — 3:1 —
  • A Very Long Engagement — 5:1 —

Best Costume Design

  • The Aviator (c-1/25) — Even —
  • Lemony Snicket’s A Series of Unfortunate Events — 3:2 —
  • Finding Neverland — 2:1 —
  • Ray — 7:1 —
  • Troy — 10:1 —

Best Makeup

  • Lemony Snicket’s A Series of Unfortunate Events (c-11/24) — Even —
  • The Passion of the Christ — 3:2 —
  • The Sea Inside — 7:1 —

Best Sound Mixing

  • Ray (c-2/23) — Even —
  • The Aviator [6/24] — Even —
  • The Incredibles — 3:2 —
  • Spider-Man 2 — 5:2 —
  • The Polar Express — 7:1 —

Best Sound Editing

  • The Incredibles (c-1/25) — Even —
  • Spider-Man 2 — Even —
  • The Polar Express — 5:1 —

Best Visual Effects

  • Spider-Man 2 (c-1/25) — Even —
  • Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban — 3:2 —
  • I, Robot — 3:1 —

Best Foreign Film

  • The Chorus – France (c-1/25) — Even —
  • The Sea Inside – Spain — Even —
  • Downfall – Germany — 2:1 —
  • As It Is In Heaven – Sweden — 4:1 —
  • Yesterday – South Africa — 5:1 —

Best Documentary Feature

  • Born Into Brothels (c-12/14) — Even —
  • Super Size Me — Even —
  • The Story of the Weeping Camel — 3:2 —
  • Tupac: Resurrection — 3:2 —
  • Twist of Faith — 5:1 —

Best Documentary Short Subject

  • Autism Is a World (c-1/25) — Even —
  • Mighty Times: The Children’s March — Even —
  • Sister Rose’s Passion — Even —
  • The Children of Leningradsky — Even —
  • Hardwood — Even —

Best Animated Short Film

  • Birthday Boy (c-1/28) — Even —
  • Gopher Broke — Even —
  • Guard Dog — Even —
  • Lorenzo — Even —
  • Ryan — Even —

Best Live-Action Short Film

  • Little Terrorist (c-1/25) — Even —
  • Everything in This Country Must — Even —
  • Two Cars, One Night — Even —
  • Wasp — Even —
  • 7:35 in the Morning — Even —

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