81st Academy Awards (2008): Winner Predictions

Predictions are in the order I think they have a chance of winning the award (except the short film categories, which are unranked and each listed as “Toss Up”). I have added notations to each indicating how strong I think they are a contender.

LEGEND:
Winner Prediction (c-Win Pred Date Set) — Chance at Win —
Other Nominees — Chance at Win —

Best Picture

• Slumdog Millionaire – Christian Colson (c-1/25) — Lock —
• Milk – Dan Jinks, Bruce Cohen — Fighting —
• The Curious Case of Benjamin Button – Kathleen Kennedy, Frank Marshall, Ceán Chaffin — Fighting —
• The Reader – Anthony Minghella, Sydney Pollack, Scott Rudin — Spoiler —
• Frost/Nixon – Brian Grazer, Ron Howard, Eric Fellner — Doubtful —

Best Animated Feature

• Wall-E – Andrew Stanton (c-7/17) — Lock —
• Kung Fu Panda – John Stevenson, Mark Osborne — Strong —
• Bolt – Chris Williams, Byron Howard — Spoiler —

Best Director

• Slumdog Millionaire – Danny Boyle (c-1/25) — Lock —
• The Curious Case of Benjamin Button – David Fincher — Fighting —
• Milk – Gus Van Sant — Fighting —
• The Reader – Stephen Daldry — Spoiler —
• Frost/Nixon – Ron Howard — Doubtful —

Best Actor

• Milk – Sean Penn (c-12/18) — Strong —
• The Wrestler – Mickey Rourke — Strong —
• Frost/Nixon – Frank Langella — Fighting —
• The Visitor – Richard Jenkins — Doubtful —
• The Curious Case of Benjamin Button – Brad Pitt — Doubtful —

Best Actress

• The Reader – Kate Winslet (c-1/22) — Strong —
• Doubt – Meryl Streep — Fighting —
• Rachel Getting Married – Anne Hathaway — Spoiler —
• Changeling – Angelina Jolie — Doubtful —
• Frozen River – Melissa Leo — Doubtful —

Best Supporting Actor

• The Dark Knight – Heath Ledger (c-12/18) — Lock —
• Tropic Thunder – Robert Downey Jr. — Spoiler —
• Milk – Josh Brolin — Doubtful —
• Doubt – Philip Seymour Hoffman — Doubtful —
• Revolutionary Road – Michael Shannon — Doubtful —

Best Supporting Actress

• Doubt – Viola Davis (c-12/1) — Fighting —
• Vicky Cristina Barcelona – Penelope Cruz — Fighting —
• The Wrestler – Marisa Tomei — Fighting —
• Doubt – Amy Adams — Fighting —
• The Curious Case of Benjamin Button – Taraji P. Henson — Fighting —

Best Original Screenplay

• Milk – Dustin Lance Black (c-12/1) — Strong —
• Wall-E – Andrew Stanton, Jim Reardon, Pete Docter — Fighting —
• In Bruges – Martin McDonagh — Fighting —
• Happy-Go-Lucky – Mike Leigh — Doubtful —
• Frozen River – Courtney Hunt — Doubtful —

Best Adapted Screenplay

• Slumdog Millionaire – Simon Beaufoy (Vikas Swarup) (c-1/22) — Lock —
• The Curious Case of Benjamin Button – Eric Roth, Robin Swicord (F. Scott Fitzgerald) — Fighting —
• The Reader – David Hare — Doubtful —
• Doubt – John Patrick Shanley — Doubtful —
• Frost/Nixon – Peter Morgan (Peter Morgan) — Doubtful —

Best Original Score

• Slumdog Millionaire – A.R. Rahman (c-2/12) — Strong —
• The Curious Case of Benjamin Button – Alexandre Desplat — Strong —
• Wall-E – Thomas Newman — Strong —
• Milk – Danny Elfman — Strong —
• Defiance – James Newton Howard — Doubtful —

Best Original Song

• Slumdog Millionaire – “Jai Ho” (c-12/11) — Strong —
• Wall-E – “Down to Earth” — Fighting —
• Slumdog Millionaire – “O Saya” — Doubtful —

Best Editing

• Slumdog Millionaire – Chris Dickens (c-12/1) — Strong —
• The Dark Knight – Lee Smith — Strong —
• The Curious Case of Benjamin Button – Kirk Baxter, Angus Wall — Fighting —
• Milk – Elliot Graham, Gus Van Sant — Doubtful —
• Frost/Nixon – Daniel P. Hanley, Mike Hill — Doubtful —

Best Cinematography

• The Curious Case of Benjamin Button – Claudio Miranda (c-2/17) — Strong —
• Slumdog Millionaire – Anthony Dod Mantle — Strong —
• The Dark Knight – Wally Pfister — Strong —
• Changeling – Tom Stern — Doubtful —
• The Reader – Chris Menges, Roger Deakins — Doubtful —

Best Art Direction

• The Curious Case of Benjamin Button – Donald Graham Burt, Victor J. Zolfo (c-1/12) — Strong —
• The Duchess – Michael Carlin, Rebecca Alleway — Fighting —
• The Dark Knight – Nathan Crowley, Peter Lando — Spoiler —
• Changeling – James J. Murakami, Gary Fettis — Doubtful —
• Revolutionary Road – Kristi Zea, Debra Schutt — Doubtful —

Best Costume Design

• The Duchess – Michael O’Connor (c-1/22) — Strong —
• The Curious Case of Benjamin Button – Jacqueline West — Strong —
• Australia – Catherine Martin — Doubtful —
• Revolutionary Road – Albert Wolsky — Doubtful —
• Milk – Danny Glicker — Doubtful —

Best Makeup

• The Curious Case of Benjamin Button – Greg Cannom (c-2/12) — Strong —
• The Dark Knight – John Caglione, Jr., Conor O’Sullivan — Strong —
• Hellboy II: The Golden Army – Mike Elizalde, Thom Floutz — Fighting —

Best Sound Mixing

• The Dark Knight – Lora Hirschberg, Gary Rizzo, Ed Novick (c-12/1) — Strong —
• Slumdog Millionaire – Ian Tapp, Richard Pryke, Resul Pookutty — Fighting —
• Wall-E – Tom Myers, Michael Semanick, Ben Burtt — Fighting —
• The Curious Case of Benjamin Button – David Parker, Michael Semanick, Ren Klyce, Mark Weingarten — Spoiler —
• Wanted – Chris Jenkins, Frank A. Montaño, Petr Forejt — Doubtful —

Best Sound Editing

• Wall-E – Ben Burtt, Matthew Wood (c-9/28) — Strong —
• The Dark Knight – Richard King — Strong —
• Iron Man – Frank Eulner, Christopher Boyes — Fighting —
• Slumdog Millionaire – Glenn Freemantle, Tom Sayers — Doubtful —
• Wanted – Wylie Stateman — Doubtful —

Best Visual Effects

• The Curious Case of Benjamin Button – Eric Barba, Steve Preeg, Burt Dalton, Craig Barron (c-12/18) — Strong —
• The Dark Knight – Nick Davis, Chris Corbould, Tim Webber, Paul Franklin — Fighting —
• Iron Man – John Nelson, Ben Snow, Dan Sudick, Shane Mahan — Spoiler —

Best Foreign Film

• The Class – France (c-9/25) — Strong —
• Revanche – Austria — Fighting —
• Waltz with Bashir – Israel — Fighting —
• Baader Meinhof Complex – Germany — Spoiler —
• Departures – Japan — Doubtful —

Best Documentary Feature

• Man on Wire – James Marsh, Simon Chinn (c-1/22) — Strong —
• Trouble the Water – Tia Lessin, Carl Deal — Fighting —
• The Garden – Scott Hamilton Kennedy — Fighting —
• Encounters At the End of the World – Werner Herzog, Henry Kaiser — Fighting —
• The Betrayal – Ellen Kuras, Thavisouk Phrasavath — Fighting —

Best Documentary Short Subject

• The Witness from the Balcony of Room 306 – Adam Pertofsky, Margaret Hyde (c-10/8) — Strong —
• Smile Pinki – Megan Mylan — Fighting —
• The Conscience of Nhem En – Steven Okazaki — Fighting —
• The Final Inch – Irene Taylor Brodsky, Tom Grant — Fighting —

Best Animated Short Film

• Presto – Doug Sweetland (c-1/22) — Strong —
• This Way Up – Alan Smith, Adam Foulkes — Fighting —
• Lavatory – Lovestory – Konstantin Bronzit — Fighting —
• Oktapodi – Emud Mokhberi, Thierry Marchand — Fighting —
• La Maison en Petits Cubes – Kunio Kato — Fighting —

Best Live-Action Short Film

• Spielzeugland (Toyalnd) – Jochen Alexander Freydank (c-1/22) — Strong —
• Auf der Strecke (On the Line) – Reto Caffi — Fighting —
• New Boy – Steph Green, Tamara Anghie — Fighting —
• Manon on the Asphalt – Elizabeth Marre, Olivier Pont — Fighting —
• The Pig – Tivi Magnusson and Dorte Høgh — Fighting —