82nd Academy Awards (2009): Winner Predictions

AWARDS

4

2



1






Avatar
The Hurt Locker
Crazy Heart
Inglourious Basterds
Up
The Young Victoria
Ajami
The Blind Side
The Cove
The Last Truck
Kavi
A Matter of Loaf and Death
Precious
Up in the Air

Predictions are in the order I think they have a chance of winning the award (except the short film categories, which are unranked and each listed as “Toss Up”). I have added notations to each indicating how strong I think they are a contender.

LEGEND:
Winner Prediction (c-Win Pred Date Set) — Chance at Win —
Other Nominees — Chance at Win —

CHANCE AT WIN:
Safe Bet: These are so likely to win that any other outcome would be shocking.
Neck and Neck: These are the tight races where any of the films could win.
Potential Spoiler: These are contenders that aren’t currently competing but could benefit from little consensus or find enough support to top the top competitors.
Long Shot: These are the true shocks that could emerge if there’s enough support for them, but which are unlikely to win in general terms.
Also Ran: These are the ones with no shot at all, no surprise victories.

Best Picture

  • The Hurt Locker – Kathryn Bigelow, Mark Boal, Nicholas Chartier, Greg Shapiro (c-2/13) — Neck and Neck —
  • Avatar – James Cameron, Jon Landau — Neck and Neck —
  • Inglourious Basterds – Lawrence Bender — Potential Spoiler —
  • Up in the Air – Daniel Dubiecki, Ivan Reitman, Jason Reitman — Potential Spoiler —
  • Precious – Lee Daniels, Sarah Siegel-Magness, Gary Magness — Potential Spoiler —
  • Up – Jonas Rivera — Potential Spoiler —
  • The Blind Side – Gil Netter, Andrew A. Kosove, Broderick Johnson — Long Shot —
  • District 9 – Peter Jackson, Carolynne Cunningham — Also Ran —
  • An Education – Finola Dwyer, Amanda Posey — Also Ran —
  • A Serious Man – Joel Coen, Ethan Coen — Also Ran —

Best Animated Feature

  • Up – Pete Docter (c-9/16) — Neck and Neck —
  • Fantastic Mr. Fox – Wes Anderson — Neck and Neck —
  • The Princess and the Frog – John Musker, Ron Clements — Potential Spoiler —
  • Coraline – Henry Selick — Potential Spoiler —
  • The Secret of Kells – Tomm Moore — Long Shot —

Best Director

  • The Hurt Locker – Kathryn Bigelow (c-1/18) — Safe Bet —
  • Inglourious Basterds – Quentin Tarantino — Potential Spoiler —
  • Avatar – James Cameron — Potential Spoiler —
  • Up in the Air – Jason Reitman — Long Shot —
  • Precious – Lee Daniels — Long Shot —

Best Actor

  • Crazy Heart – Jeff Bridges (c-1/18) — Safe Bet —
  • Up in the Air – George Clooney — Potential Spoiler —
  • The Hurt Locker – Jeremy Renner — Potential Spoiler —
  • A Single Man – Colin Firth — Long Shot —
  • Invictus – Morgan Freeman — Also Ran —

Best Actress

  • The Blind Side – Sandra Bullock (c-1/18) — Neck and Neck —
  • Julie & Julia – Meryl Streep — Neck and Neck —
  • An Education – Carey Mulligan — Long Shot —
  • Precious – Gabourey Sidibe — Long Shot —
  • The Last Station – Helen Mirren — Also Ran —

Best Supporting Actor

  • Inglourious Basterds – Christoph Waltz (c-2/2) — Safe Bet —
  • The Last Station – Christopher Plummer — Potential Spoiler —
  • The Messenger – Woody Harrelson — Long Shot —
  • The Lovely Bones – Stanley Tucci — Also Ran —
  • Invictus – Matt Damon — Also Ran —

Best Supporting Actress

  • Precious – Mo’Nique (c-10/30) — Safe Bet —
  • Up in the Air – Vera Farmiga — Potential Spoiler —
  • Up in the Air – Anna Kendrick — Potential Spoiler —
  • Crazy Heart – Maggie Gyllenhaal — Long Shot —
  • Nine – Penelope Cruz — Also Ran —

Best Original Screenplay

  • Inglourious Basterds – Quentin Tarantino (c-1/18) — Neck and Neck —
  • The Hurt Locker – Mark Boal — Neck and Neck —
  • Up – Bob Peterson, Pete Docter, Tom McCarthy — Potential Spoiler —
  • The Messenger – Alessandro Camon, Oren Moverman — Long Shot —
  • A Serious Man – Joel Coen, Ethan Coen — Also Ran —

Best Adapted Screenplay

  • Up in the Air – Jason Reitman, Sheldon Turner (c-12/6) — Safe Bet —
  • Precious – Geoffrey Fletcher — Potential Spoiler —
  • In the Loop – Jesse Armstrong, Simon Blackwell, Armando Iannucci, Tony Roche — Potential Spoiler —
  • An Education – Nick Hornby — Long Shot —
  • District 9 – Neill Blomkamp, Terri Tatchell — Long Shot —

Best Original Score

  • Up – Micahel Giacchino (c-3/23) — Neck and Neck —
  • Avatar – James Horner — Neck and Neck —
  • Fantastic Mr. Fox – Alexandre Desplat — Potential Spoiler —
  • The Hurt Locker – Marco Beltrami, Buck Sanders — Potential Spoiler —
  • Sherlock Holmes – Hans Zimmer — Long Shot —

Best Original Song

  • Crazy Heart – The Weary Kind (c-1/18) — Safe Bet —
  • The Princess and the Frog – Almost There — Potential Spoiler —
  • The Princess and the Frog – Down in New Orleans — Long Shot —
  • Paris 36 – Loin de Paname — Also Ran —
  • Nine – Take It All — Also Ran —

Best Editing

  • The Hurt Locker – Bob Murawksi, Chris Innis (c-1/13) — Neck and Neck —
  • Avatar – Steven Rivkin, John Refoua, James Cameron — Neck and Neck —
  • Inglourious Basterds – Sally Menke — Potential Spoiler —
  • District 9 – Julian Clarke — Long Shot —
  • Precious – Joe Klotz — Also Ran —

Best Cinematography

  • The Hurt Locker – Barry Ackroyd (c-1/18) — Neck and Neck —
  • The White Ribbon – Christian Berger — Neck and Neck —
  • Inglourious Basterds – Robert Richardson — Neck and Neck —
  • Avatar – Mauro Fiore — Neck and Neck —
  • Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince – Bruno Delbonnel — Also Ran —

Best Art Direction

  • Avatar – Rick Carter, Robert Stromberg, Kim Sinclair (c-1/13) — Safe Bet —
  • Sherlock Holmes – Sarah Greenwood, Katie Spencer — Potential Spoiler —
  • The Young Victoria – Patrice Vernette, Maggie Gray — Potential Spoiler —
  • The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus – Dave Warren, Anastasia Masaro, Caroline Smith — Also Ran —
  • Nine – John Myhre, Gordon Sim — Also Ran —

Best Costume Design

  • The Young Victoria – Sandy Powell (c-11/27) — Safe Bet —
  • Coco Before Chanel – Catherine Leterrier — Potential Spoiler —
  • Bright Star – Janet Patterson — Potential Spoiler —
  • Nine – Colleen Atwood — Long Shot —
  • The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus – Monique Prudhomme — Also Ran —

Best Makeup

  • The Young Victoria – Jon Henry Gordon, Jenny Shircore (c-3/6) — Neck and Neck —
  • Il Divo – Aldo Signoretti, Vittorio Sodano — Neck and Neck —
  • Star Trek – Barney Burman, Mindy Hall, Joel Harlow — Neck and Neck —

Best Sound Mixing

  • Avatar – Christopher Boyes, Gary Summers, Andy Nelson, Tony Johnson (c-1/13) — Neck and Neck —
  • The Hurt Locker – Paul N.J. Ottosson, Ray Beckett — Neck and Neck —
  • Inglourious Basterds – Michael Minkler, Tony Lamberti, Mark Ulano — Neck and Neck —
  • Star Trek – Anna Behlmer, Andy Nelson, Peter J. Devlin — Long Shot —
  • Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen – Greg P. Russell, Gary Summers, Geoffrey Patterson — Also Ran —

Best Sound Editing

  • Avatar – Christopher Boyes, Gwendolyn Yates Whittle (c-3/23) — Neck and Neck —
  • The Hurt Locker – Paul N.J. Ottosson — Neck and Neck —
  • Up – Michael Silvers, Tom Myers — Potential Spoiler —
  • Inglourious Basterds – Wylie Stateman — Long Shot —
  • Star Trek – Mark Stoeckinger, Alan Rankin — Also Ran —

Best Visual Effects

  • Avatar – Joe Letteri, Stephen Rosenbaum, Richard Baneham, Andrew R. Jones (c-3/23) — Safe Bet —
  • District 9 – Dan Kaufman, Peter Muyzers, Robert Habros, Matt Aitken — Potential Spoiler —
  • Star Trek – Rogert Guyett, Russell Earl, Paul Kavanagh, Burt Dalton — Long Shot —

Best Foreign Film

  • Ajami – Israel (c-2/22) — Neck and Neck —
  • Un Prophète – France — Neck and Neck —
  • El Secreto de Sus Ojos – Argentina — Neck and Neck —
  • The White Ribbon – Germany — Neck and Neck —
  • The Milk of Sorrow – Peru — Also Ran —

Best Documentary Feature

  • The Cove – TBD (c-2/25)
  • Burma VJ – Anders Østergaard, Lisa Lense-Møller
  • The Most Dangerous Man in America: Daniel Ellsberg and the Pentagon Papers – Judith Ehlrich, Rick Goldsmith
  • Food, Inc. – Robert Kenner, Elise Pearlstein
  • Which Way Home – Rebecca Cammisa

Best Documentary Short Subject

  • The Last Truck: Closing of a GM Plant – Steven Bognar, Julia Reichert (c-11/27)
  • China’s Unnatural Disaster: The Tears of Sichuan Province – Jon Alpert, Matthew O’Neill
  • Music by Prudence – Roger Ross Williams, Elinor Burkett
  • Rabbit a la Berlin – Bartek Konopka, Anna Wydra
  • The Last Campaign of Governor Booth Gardner – Daniel Junge, Henry Ansbacher

Best Animated Short Film

  • A Matter of Loaf and Death – Nick Park (c-11/27)
  • The Lady and the Reaper (La Dama y la Muerte) – Javier Recio Garcia
  • Granny O’Grimm’s Sleeping Beauty – Nicky Phelan, Darragh O’Connell
  • Logorama – Nicolas Schmerkin
  • French Roast – Fabrice O. Joubert

Best Live-Action Short Film

  • Kavi – Gregg Helvey (c-2/25)
  • The Door – Juanita Wilson, James Flynn
  • Instead of Abracadabra – Patrik Eklund, Matthias Fjellström
  • The New Tenants – Joachim Back, Tivi Magnusson
  • Miracle Fish – Luke Doolan, Drew Bailey

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