82nd Academy Awards (2009): Winner Predictions

AWARDS
4 – 2 – – – 1 – – – – – – –	Avatar The Hurt Locker Crazy Heart Inglourious Basterds Up The Young Victoria Ajami The Blind Side The Cove The Last Truck Kavi A Matter of Loaf and Death Precious Up in the Air

Predictions are in the order I think they have a chance of winning the award (except the short film categories, which are unranked and each listed as “Toss Up”). I have added notations to each indicating how strong I think they are a contender.

LEGEND:
Winner Prediction (c-Win Pred Date Set) — Chance at Win —
Other Nominees — Chance at Win —

CHANCE AT WIN:
Safe Bet: These are so likely to win that any other outcome would be shocking.
Neck and Neck: These are the tight races where any of the films could win.
Potential Spoiler: These are contenders that aren’t currently competing but could benefit from little consensus or find enough support to top the top competitors.
Long Shot: These are the true shocks that could emerge if there’s enough support for them, but which are unlikely to win in general terms.
Also Ran: These are the ones with no shot at all, no surprise victories.

Best Picture

The Hurt Locker – Kathryn Bigelow, Mark Boal, Nicholas Chartier, Greg Shapiro (c-2/13) — Neck and Neck —

Avatar – James Cameron, Jon Landau — Neck and Neck —
Inglourious Basterds – Lawrence Bender — Potential Spoiler —
Up in the Air – Daniel Dubiecki, Ivan Reitman, Jason Reitman — Potential Spoiler —
Precious – Lee Daniels, Sarah Siegel-Magness, Gary Magness — Potential Spoiler —
Up – Jonas Rivera — Potential Spoiler —
The Blind Side – Gil Netter, Andrew A. Kosove, Broderick Johnson — Long Shot —
District 9 – Peter Jackson, Carolynne Cunningham — Also Ran —
An Education – Finola Dwyer, Amanda Posey — Also Ran —
A Serious Man – Joel Coen, Ethan Coen — Also Ran —

Best Animated Feature

Up – Pete Docter (c-9/16) — Neck and Neck —

Fantastic Mr. Fox – Wes Anderson — Neck and Neck —
The Princess and the Frog – John Musker, Ron Clements — Potential Spoiler —
Coraline – Henry Selick — Potential Spoiler —
The Secret of Kells – Tomm Moore — Long Shot —

Best Director

The Hurt Locker – Kathryn Bigelow (c-1/18) — Safe Bet —

Inglourious Basterds – Quentin Tarantino — Potential Spoiler —
Avatar – James Cameron — Potential Spoiler —
Up in the Air – Jason Reitman — Long Shot —
Precious – Lee Daniels — Long Shot —

Best Actor

Crazy Heart – Jeff Bridges (c-1/18) — Safe Bet —

Up in the Air – George Clooney — Potential Spoiler —
The Hurt Locker – Jeremy Renner — Potential Spoiler —
A Single Man – Colin Firth — Long Shot —
Invictus – Morgan Freeman — Also Ran —

Best Actress

The Blind Side – Sandra Bullock (c-1/18) — Neck and Neck —

Julie & Julia – Meryl Streep — Neck and Neck —
An Education – Carey Mulligan — Long Shot —
Precious – Gabourey Sidibe — Long Shot —
The Last Station – Helen Mirren — Also Ran —

Best Supporting Actor

Inglourious Basterds – Christoph Waltz (c-2/2) — Safe Bet —

The Last Station – Christopher Plummer — Potential Spoiler —
The Messenger – Woody Harrelson — Long Shot —
The Lovely Bones – Stanley Tucci — Also Ran —
Invictus – Matt Damon — Also Ran —

Best Supporting Actress

Precious – Mo’Nique (c-10/30) — Safe Bet —

Up in the Air – Vera Farmiga — Potential Spoiler —
Up in the Air – Anna Kendrick — Potential Spoiler —
Crazy Heart – Maggie Gyllenhaal — Long Shot —
Nine – Penelope Cruz — Also Ran —

Best Original Screenplay

Inglourious Basterds – Quentin Tarantino (c-1/18) — Neck and Neck —

The Hurt Locker – Mark Boal — Neck and Neck —
Up – Bob Peterson, Pete Docter, Tom McCarthy — Potential Spoiler —
The Messenger – Alessandro Camon, Oren Moverman — Long Shot —
A Serious Man – Joel Coen, Ethan Coen — Also Ran —

Best Adapted Screenplay

Up in the Air – Jason Reitman, Sheldon Turner (c-12/6) — Safe Bet —

Precious – Geoffrey Fletcher — Potential Spoiler —
In the Loop – Jesse Armstrong, Simon Blackwell, Armando Iannucci, Tony Roche — Potential Spoiler —
An Education – Nick Hornby — Long Shot —
District 9 – Neill Blomkamp, Terri Tatchell — Long Shot —

Best Original Score

Up – Micahel Giacchino (c-3/23) — Neck and Neck —

Avatar – James Horner — Neck and Neck —
Fantastic Mr. Fox – Alexandre Desplat — Potential Spoiler —
The Hurt Locker – Marco Beltrami, Buck Sanders — Potential Spoiler —
Sherlock Holmes – Hans Zimmer — Long Shot —

Best Original Song

Crazy Heart – The Weary Kind (c-1/18) — Safe Bet —

The Princess and the Frog – Almost There — Potential Spoiler —
The Princess and the Frog – Down in New Orleans — Long Shot —
Paris 36 – Loin de Paname — Also Ran —
Nine – Take It All — Also Ran —

Best Editing

The Hurt Locker – Bob Murawksi, Chris Innis (c-1/13) — Neck and Neck —

Avatar – Steven Rivkin, John Refoua, James Cameron — Neck and Neck —
Inglourious Basterds – Sally Menke — Potential Spoiler —
District 9 – Julian Clarke — Long Shot —
Precious – Joe Klotz — Also Ran —

Best Cinematography

The Hurt Locker – Barry Ackroyd (c-1/18) — Neck and Neck —

The White Ribbon – Christian Berger — Neck and Neck —
Inglourious Basterds – Robert Richardson — Neck and Neck —
Avatar – Mauro Fiore — Neck and Neck —
Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince – Bruno Delbonnel — Also Ran —

Best Art Direction

Avatar – Rick Carter, Robert Stromberg, Kim Sinclair (c-1/13) — Safe Bet —

Sherlock Holmes – Sarah Greenwood, Katie Spencer — Potential Spoiler —
The Young Victoria – Patrice Vernette, Maggie Gray — Potential Spoiler —
The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus – Dave Warren, Anastasia Masaro, Caroline Smith — Also Ran —
Nine – John Myhre, Gordon Sim — Also Ran —

Best Costume Design

The Young Victoria – Sandy Powell (c-11/27) — Safe Bet —

Coco Before Chanel – Catherine Leterrier — Potential Spoiler —
Bright Star – Janet Patterson — Potential Spoiler —
Nine – Colleen Atwood — Long Shot —
The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus – Monique Prudhomme — Also Ran —

Best Makeup

The Young Victoria – Jon Henry Gordon, Jenny Shircore (c-3/6) — Neck and Neck —

Il Divo – Aldo Signoretti, Vittorio Sodano — Neck and Neck —
Star Trek – Barney Burman, Mindy Hall, Joel Harlow — Neck and Neck —

Best Sound Mixing

Avatar – Christopher Boyes, Gary Summers, Andy Nelson, Tony Johnson (c-1/13) — Neck and Neck —

The Hurt Locker – Paul N.J. Ottosson, Ray Beckett — Neck and Neck —
Inglourious Basterds – Michael Minkler, Tony Lamberti, Mark Ulano — Neck and Neck —
Star Trek – Anna Behlmer, Andy Nelson, Peter J. Devlin — Long Shot —
Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen – Greg P. Russell, Gary Summers, Geoffrey Patterson — Also Ran —

Best Sound Editing

Avatar – Christopher Boyes, Gwendolyn Yates Whittle (c-3/23) — Neck and Neck —

The Hurt Locker – Paul N.J. Ottosson — Neck and Neck —
Up – Michael Silvers, Tom Myers — Potential Spoiler —
Inglourious Basterds – Wylie Stateman — Long Shot —
Star Trek – Mark Stoeckinger, Alan Rankin — Also Ran —

Best Visual Effects

Avatar – Joe Letteri, Stephen Rosenbaum, Richard Baneham, Andrew R. Jones (c-3/23) — Safe Bet —

District 9 – Dan Kaufman, Peter Muyzers, Robert Habros, Matt Aitken — Potential Spoiler —
Star Trek – Rogert Guyett, Russell Earl, Paul Kavanagh, Burt Dalton — Long Shot —

Best Foreign Film

Ajami – Israel (c-2/22) — Neck and Neck —

Un Prophète – France — Neck and Neck —
El Secreto de Sus Ojos – Argentina — Neck and Neck —
The White Ribbon – Germany — Neck and Neck —
The Milk of Sorrow – Peru — Also Ran —

Best Documentary Feature

The Cove – TBD (c-2/25)

Burma VJ – Anders Østergaard, Lisa Lense-Møller
The Most Dangerous Man in America: Daniel Ellsberg and the Pentagon Papers – Judith Ehlrich, Rick Goldsmith
Food, Inc. – Robert Kenner, Elise Pearlstein
Which Way Home – Rebecca Cammisa

Best Documentary Short Subject

The Last Truck: Closing of a GM Plant – Steven Bognar, Julia Reichert (c-11/27)

China’s Unnatural Disaster: The Tears of Sichuan Province – Jon Alpert, Matthew O’Neill
Music by Prudence – Roger Ross Williams, Elinor Burkett
Rabbit a la Berlin – Bartek Konopka, Anna Wydra
The Last Campaign of Governor Booth Gardner – Daniel Junge, Henry Ansbacher