83rd Academy Awards (2010): Oscar Morning

FOR AN OSCAR MORNING TRACKING SHEET, CLICK HERE. My predictions are in BOLD.

On Tuesday morning, January 25, 2011, the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences will be announcing its nominees for the 83rd Annual Academy Awards. It will be broadcast live at just after 5:30a PST (6:30a MST, 7:30a CST, 8:30a EST).

While the morning shows will cover the event, they are on tape delay for the rest of the country, so watching those will get you the information later than most everyone else. Your best bet is to watch live coverage on E! and maybe CNN Live or some of the other news channels (if they feel like it). And, according to the Academy’s Facebook page, they will also have an official webcast of the event. I will, however, be updating my site with the information as I receive it.

The first announcement I post will be the short list of categories announced live, then as I get more information, I will update that post with the rest of it.

Every year, I provide a primer for Oscar Nominations Morning, a way to help you get in the right frame of mind and understand what’s going on and when.

The most important thing to know before sitting down to the announcement, is what order the categories will be announced in. To make it easier, I have put them in order below so you can just follow along as you need to. In addition, I have prepared a .pdf file you can print out and check off as the nominees are announced (it’s what I usually do anyway).

Since 1991, Supporting Actor and Lead Actor have always been announced ahead of their associated counterparts. For the last four years, Supporting Actress and Lead Actress have lead their counterparts. So, we’ll go with the current trend./p>

Best Supporting Actress

Starting off the day, we have a category that isn’t likely going to give us a hint of what’s to come. Several names I don’t mention, such as Rebecca Hall in The Town or Olivia Williams in The Ghost Writer could presage a number of surprises, but most likely we’ll just have to be surprised by what actually ends up on the list for the category.

The acting categories are the only ones announced in alphabetical order by the nominee’s last name, the rest are alphabetical by film. So, the first name to come out will be Amy Adams. Second up will be Helena Bonham Carter. Then we have one of the two Black Swan ladies, Barbara Hershey or Mila Kunis (if Kunis is announced first, then Hershey is a no show. If Hershey is announced, Kunis might be next, but could be ignored altogether). After Black Swan, the second nominee from The Fighter will pop out in Melissa Leo.

If neither Kunis nor Hershey show up, then the next name on the list will almost definitely be Lesley Manville, but if either or both are picked, then the last spot will either belong to Manville or Jacki Weaver. However, if the Black Swan ladies aren’t mentioned, then not only are you likely to see manville, but the name following won’t be Weaver, but Hailee Steinfeld whose chance at a Best Actress nomination will be dashed by category fraud. Sandra Oh could get in there after Manville in place of Steinfeld, but I have serious doubts. If Leo is mentioned fourth, then the spot may go to any, but my guess would be Jacki Weaver. If Weaver’s fourth, then Dianne Wiest will have emerged from her dark horse position for a nomination.

The only nominee in this category that could point to a change in predictions later in the day is Manville. If she has enough support to be nominated, there could be enough support for Another Year in Original Screenplay, but not being there doesn’t affect that chance.

Best Supporting Actor

This category comes down to a collection of hay , a fictional cat, and the 3 R’s. Of course, I’m talking last names of likely Oscar nominees, not some strange nursery rhyme.

The first name to be announced will undoubtedly be Christian Bale. After that, two things will occur. Either True Grit gets a boat load more nominations than we expect and Matt Damon is carried along or Social Network is still the stronger contender with Andrew Garfield who my guess is will be the second name read. Then we have two of the big ifs of the morning. If Winter’s Bone is a Best Picture nominee, then you may have the foreshadowing here with a nomination for John Hawkes. But that would knock out Jeremy Renner, so I’m not so sure it will occur. If it does, then the next name read should be Mark Ruffalo.

However, if Hawkes isn’t announced, the third name should be Renner, but if the sentimental favorite Pete Postlethwaite picks up a nomination, Renner is most assuredly out, but if both Postlethwaite and Renner are in, a Best Picture nomination for The Town would be assured. Of course, if both are in, then poor Mark Ruffalo will be the odd man out because there’s little doubt in my mind that Geoffrey Rush will be the fifth name on the list.

Should Renner be listed third and not fourth, then Ruffalo will be number four on the list followed by Rush. Now, if the fates align for Social Network and Ruffalo comes out listed third, Rush will be fourth and a shock nomination for singer Justin Timberlake will round out the top 5.

Best Actress

There are most certainly three names your certain to hear when this category is announced. The remaining two spots all depend on what order those three are announced (Annette Bening, Jennifer Lawrence and Natalie Portman). Starting off the list will be Bening in a cakewalk, but the big question is whose name is read second. It used to be a pretty safe bet that Nicole Kidman would beat Lawrence out for the second spot on the list, but after her film tanked in limited release, her nomination is far from assured. If Lawrence is indeed second and not Kidman, then the third name on the list should tell you everything you need to know. Julianne Moore’s mention has always hinged on whether voters will recognize two leads for The Kids Are All Right or none. My guess is she’ll be shafted for another actress being read third (or fourth with Kidman). Gwyneth Paltrow could be that next name, but only if Country Strong surprises with a Best Picture nomination, which is unlikely.

No, the third or fourth name on the list is going to be Portman. If she’s third, then the remaining two spots will belong to Hailee Steinfeld and Michelle Williams. If she’s fourth, then I expect Steinfeld to buck category placement fraud and come in fifth. Of course, if Steinfeld already got the mention in Supporting Actress announced earlier, then the fifth spot would be saved for Williams. Now, if by some miracle (for some, but not all), Portman ends up as mentioned third and Steinfeld is either listed as Supporting Actress or forgotten altogether, Noomi Rapace could be a shock Oscar nominee with Williams taking up position five.

Best Actor

This is the only category that will determine the strength of The Fighter. His three fellow castmates are guaranteed nominations, but Mark Wahlberg is not. He would be announced in the fifth position, but you’ll know pretty early in the mentions if a nod is in the cards or not.

Things should start out rosy for last year’s winner Jeff Bridges who should pick up the first mention of the morning. After that, there are one of two names that will be called second. Robert Duvall has hung on longer than I expected and could still get nominated, but SAG isn’t always right and he’s not won any precursors, so if he’s second, then Jesse Eisenberg is third. If he’s not, then either Aaron Eckhart in a surprise or Eisenberg will come in second (and you’ll know if Eckhart has any shot by whether Dianne Wiest is nominaetd, which suggests he will be, or Nicole Kidman, which suggests he won’t be).

After Eisenberg, a lot depends on the number of slots still open. If Eisenberg is third, Colin Firth and James Franco will fill spots four and five. If Eisenberg is read second, then Firth and Franco will be listed third and fourth leaving the last spot for either Ryan Gosling or Mark Wahlberg. If Wahlberg gets the fifth and final spot, then The Fighter has strong prospects for leading the Oscar nominations tally. Of course, Wahlberg gets even more likely if somehow Gosling is listed third, which I seriously doubt.

Best Director

This category has a very small number of potential nominees. One thing’s for certain, unless there’s a real out-of-nowhere nominee, all five of these films will also get Best Picture nominations. And also of note, this category is read alphabetically by film title, not by the director’s last name.

The first thing that may catch your eye about my list below is that 127 Hours is listed twice. I did this because I have no idea whether the Academy will alphabetize by the number 127, listing it first, or use the alpha representation One Hundred Twenty-Seven, to rank it, which would put it’s potential nomination behind The King’s Speech instead of at the beginning.

We may know right away which is the case if 127 Hours is nominated numerically. Since Danny Boyle isn’t assured a nomination, this category may not put the debate to rest. First on the list of nominees should be Black Swan director Darren Aronofsky. If he is preceded by either 127 Hours or Another Year, expect Christopher Nolan to miss out on a nomination. Second on the list should be The Fighter followed by Inception. If Inception is not listed third and something else is, then its Best Picture chances diminish slightly, but not enough.

The fourth and fifth names on the list are almost certain beign The King’s Speech or The Social Network. If King’s Speech is read third, then The Social Network (or 127 Hours) will be read fourth. If Social Network is fourth, then either Ben Affleck gets a nomination for The Town or the Coens earn a nod for True Grit. It’s also possible that Lisa Cholodenko could be nominated, but she’ll take up spot two or three on the list if anything and Debra Granik, if she’’ to be nominated, will be the last name read (and if True Grit, The Town or Social Network are listed fourth, it’s a distinct possibility (especially if it’s True Grit listed fourth).

Best Original Screenplay

What a potential mess this category could be. There are five films that seem so likely to be nominated that anything else would be a bit of a surprise. The first title read out will tell us if a surprise is to be expected. Black Swan should come out first, but an apperance by Another Year means trouble for either Black Swan, The Fighter or Inception. Mike Leigh has gotten more surprise nominations than any other writer/director I can think of, so his inclusion wouldn’t be a surprise if it occurred, but what gets left out of the remaining four would be the real surprise here.

So, assuming Another Year isn’t getting nominated, Black Swan would be followed by The Fighter, then Inception, then The Kids Are All Right and finally by The King’s Speech. If Another Year isn’t read and any of Black Swan, The Fighter or Inception also isn’t nominated, then there are only two potential spoilers here, both of which would be hugely surprising. One is Easy A falling in behind Black Swan or first all depending or Somewhere coming in last.

Neither ended up with WGA nominations despite that guild’s numerous ineligible films, so getting in here would be a shock. Please Give did get in at WGA, so it could spoil, but I doubt most Academy members even saw the film.

Best Adapted Screenplay

The Writers Guild of America ended up being totally useless this year in trying to help us predict this category. So many potential nominees were ruled ineligible that some of this has to be cobbled together on the fly.

This category will once again deny us any idea how the Academy would alphabetize 127 Hours since either way it will be first on the list. The second name read will likely be The Social Network. If Aaron Eckhart or Dianne Wiest appeared earlier, then it’s quite possible Rabbit Hole will be named second (or even first in the case of a shocker). After The Social Network will either be Ben Affleck making his first appearance as an Oscar nominee since 1997 or the screenwriting team of Toy Story 3. Of course, I’m doubtful that Affleck will be on the list, but if The Town is, then a Best Picture nomination is fairly certain.

True Grit is another fairly safe nominee and whether it’s listed fourth or fifth will determine the fate of Winter’s Bone. A fourth-place appearance will give Winter’s Bone a nomination, but if by the time they get to Toy Story 3, it’s the fourth title announced, the True Grit will be fifth and Winter’s Bone will be left out.

Best Foreign Language Film

In the past this category has been a bit confusing. Sometimes, the Academy ignores their own press releases and uses the English title in announcing the nominees. At other times, they use the foreign title. So, expect a couple of these potential nominees to be jumbled into a different order. To make things slightly easier, but ultimately still confusing, I have taken the two finalists whose titles are not in English and accompanied them with the English title and listed them twice under each moniker.

With only nine potential nominees, it should be fairly easy to see where things are going from the early nominations. Biutiful is the first eligible and will be the first named. After that, either Japan will continue its amazing resurgence of nominations or Greece’s Dogtooth will trump it as the second name. Third may be either Hors la Loi (Outside the Law) or Even the Rin (Tambien la Lluvia) then Incendies or In a Better World followed by either Live, above All or Outside the Law (Hors la Loi), Simple Simon or Tambien la Lluvia (Even the Rain).

I don’t know how to be more specific since the only titles I can say with any certainty will be there are Biutiful and In a Better World and the rest are best guesses.

Best Animated Faeture

Although there are fifteen films eligible, I’ve eliminated all films that have almost no chance of getting nominated.

First out of the gate should be How to Train Your Dragon as it and Toy Story 3 are the only guaranteed nominees. If the first title announced is instead Despicable Me, then Dragon and Toy Story are the final two. In all cases, Toy Story 3 will be the last title read, so if Dragon is first, then either The Illusionist, Megamind or Tangled are second.

Best Picture

Now, we’ve reached the final category that will be announced live by Mo’Nique. Instead of going through a simple paragraph structure like above, I’m going to go through each film that has a chance of nomination individually. Again, we have the confusion over in what order 127 Hours will be posted, so we should hopefully have our answer this time since the Academy sidestepped the issue last year by ignoring (500) Days of Summer.

127 Hours – Despite a lackluster box office performance, the sheer ingenuity of this film and its director’s prior Best Picture triumph should make it a fairly safe bet to be listed first (or later) on the list of Best Picture nominees.

Another Year – An appearance on the Original Screenplay list won’t guarantee the film a nomination, but showing up in acting for Lesley Manville or in Best Director Mike Leigh may push it into a nomination.

Black Swan – The likelihood of this not being the first or second film on the list is very high. The only way it misses out is if it fails to show up in any category already announced (Natalie Portman being the only exception). An absence in Supporting Actress, Director, Original Screenplay or all three would be a bad side, but a nod in Supporting Actress should tell us definitively if it will be here.

The Fighter – A strong box office performance, critics’ plaudits and a slew of acting nominations pretty much guarantees the film a Best Picture nomination. The clincher, though, is if Mark Wahlberg makes the Best Actor list, at which point the nomination is not only a given, but it becomes a favorite to beat Social Network for Bet Picture.

Inception – A lot of talk has gone around about this film’s Oscar chances. Many feel it’s a slam dunk nominee, but others are cautious. With a ten-slot field, it’s pretty much a lock. After all, one of the major reasons there are even ten nominees in Best Picture these last two years is because Chirstohper Nolan’s last film, The Dark Knight, didn’t get a Best Picture nomination.

The Kids Are All Right – This is the second film after 127 Hours that could be left off the list fairly easily. It’s managed to hold on since earlier this year and has the potential for at least two acting nominations. Only Julianne Moore appearing in Best Actress would solidify the film’s chances a place in Best Picture.

The King’s Speech – One of two absolutely guaranteed Best Picture nominees. The Weinsteins have been pushing hard for this one and with the dominance at the BAFTA nominations, it’s unlikely the film will receive a drubbing with the Academy.

127 Hours – Will it be announced here? At the top of the list? Or not at all. Your guess is as good as mine.

Rabbit Hole – The film collapsed at the box office and now even the once solid Nicole Kidman is fighting for her life. So, if the film not only ends up in Best Actress, but also in Best Adapted Screenplay and/or Best Actor, then it has no prayer at a Best Picture nomination.

The Social Network – This is probably the most locked nominee in the bunch. If the Academy somehow failed to nominate the film, the entire Oscar prognostication field would implode with shock.

The Town – A lot of this film’s success rides on how popular the film is with Academy members and how much the film’s strong box office performance influences them. With a smattering of box office hits on this year’s short list, I don’t think it will matter much, but to know if this film gets the nod, either both Pete Postlethwaite and Jeremy Renner will require nominations or it will need to appear in both Adapted Screenplay and Director. None of these scenarios seem that likely.

Toy Story 3 – This will mark the second year Pixar has been a major player in the Best Picture race now that it’s been expanded to 10. There isn’t certain to be an annual Pixar spot reserved, but it’s a good bet this highly popular sequel will make the cut.

True Grit – I can’t really see a scenario in which True Grit is not nominated. The film has proven to be a huge box office hit, the biggest to date for the Coens and with that an Oscar nomination, the Academy would be not only validating the recent western revival, it might encourage it further.

Winter’s Bone – This is where the predicting waters get murkiest. The film has held on well the last several months and Jennifer Lawrence has become something of a bona fide nominee contender. However, the film still doesn’t have the success one would expect from a Best Picture winner. If Toy Story 3 is the ninth nominee announced Tuesday morning, the Winter’s Bone will be left out in favor of True Grit. However, if Toy Story 3 is eighth, Winter’s Bone is in. The only indication you might have of it being a sure nominee is if John Hawkes sneaks into Supporting Actor, but even then that’s no guarantee.

And that’s everything: a quick rundown of all of this year’s live-announced categories and how to use some of those picks in later categories to determine potential nominees. Although it takes some practice and experience to follow the awards like this, it is kind of fun. It adds a measure of suspense and anticipation. “What? You mean Nicole Kidman didn’t get nominated? Who will they nominate instead?” So, take the above and enjoy the announcements.