83rd Academy Awards (2010): Winner Predictions

AWARDS
6 3 2 – 1 – – – – – – – – – –	The King’s Speech Inception The Fighter The Social Network 127 Hours Alice in Wonderland Black Swan The Confession Day & Night In a Better World Inside Job Sun Come Up Toy Story 3 True Grit The Wolfman

Predictions are in the order I think they have a chance of winning the award (except the short film categories, which are unranked and each listed as “Toss Up”). I have added notations to each indicating how strong I think they are a contender.

LEGEND:
Winner Prediction (c-Win Pred Date Set) — Chance at Win —
Other Nominees — Chance at Win —

Best Picture

The King’s Speech (c-1/29) — Strong —

The Social Network — Close Second —
The Fighter — Potential Upset —
True Grit — Potential Upset —
Inception — Unlikely —
Black Swan — Unlikely —
Toy Story 3 — Unlikely —
The Kids Are All Right — Long Shot —
127 Hours — Long Shot —
Winter’s Bone — Long Shot —

Best Animated Feature

Toy Story 3 (c-4/13) — Lock —

How to Train Your Dragon — Potential Upset —
The Illusionist — Long Shot —

Best Director

The King’s Speech – Tom Hooper (c-1/29) — Neck-and-Neck —

The Social Network – David Fincher — Neck-and-Neck —
The Fighter – David O. Russell — Potential Upset —
True Grit – Joel Coen, Ethan Coen — Unlikely —
Black Swan – Darren Aronofsky — Long Shot —

Best Actor

The King’s Speech – Colin Firth (c-9/9) — Lock —

127 Hours – James Franco — Potential Upset —
The Social Network – Jesse Eisenberg — Potential Upset —
True Grit – Jeff Bridges — Unlikely —
Biutiful – Javier Bardem — Long Shot —

Best Actress

Black Swan – Natalie Portman (c-12/1) — Neck-and-Neck —

The Kids Are All Right – Annette Bening — Neck-and-Neck —
Winter’s Bone – Jennifer Lawrence — Potential Upset —
Rabbit Hole – Nicole Kidman — Long Shot —
Blue Valentine – Michelle Williams — Long Shot —

Best Supporting Actor

The Fighter – Christian Bale (c-12/19) — Strong —

The King’s Speech – Geoffrey Rush — Close Second —
The Kids Are All Right – Mark Ruffalo — Long Shot —
Winter’s Bone – John Hawkes — Long Shot —
The Town – Jeremy Renner — Long Shot —

Best Supporting Actress

The Fighter – Melissa Leo (c-1/30) — Strong —

True Grit – Hailee Steinfeld — Potential Upset —
The King’s Speech – Helena Bonham Carter — Unlikely —
The Fighter – Amy Adams — Unlikely —
Animal Kingdom – Jacki Weaver — Long Shot —

Best Original Screenplay

The King’s Speech – David Seidler (c-1/29) — Strong —

Inception – Christopher Nolan — Potential Upset —
The Kids Are All Right – Lisa Cholodenko, Stuart Blumberg — Unlikely —
The Fighter – Paul Attanasio, Lewis Colick — Unlikely —
Another Year – Mike Leigh — Long Shot —

Best Adapted Screenplay

The Social Network – Aaron Sorkin (c-9/9) — Lock —

Winter’s Bone – Debra Granik, Anne Rosellini (Novel: Daniel Woodrell) — Potential Upset —
True Grit – Joel Coen, Ethan Coen (Novel: Charles Portis) — Potential Upset —
Toy Story 3 – Michael Arndt — Unlikely —
127 Hours – Danny Boyle, Simon Beaufoy (Book: Aron Ralston) — Unlikely —

Best Original Song

The King’s Speech – Alexandre Desplat (c-1/31) — Neck-and-Neck —

The Social Network – Trent Reznor — Neck-and-Neck —
Inception – Hans Zimmer — Potential Upset —
How to Train Your Dragon – John Powell — Unlikely —
127 Hours – A.R. Rahman — Long Shot —

Best Original Score

127 Hours – If I Rise (n-11/28, o-1/25) — Neck-and-Neck —

Toy Story 3 – We Belong Together — Neck-and-Neck —
Country Strong – Coming Home — Potential Upset —
Tangled – I See the Light — Potential Upset —

Best Editing

The Social Network – Kirk Baxter, Angus Wall (c-2/14) — Strong —

The Fighter – Pamela Martin — Potential Upset —
The King’s Speech – Tariq Anwar — Potential Upset —
127 Hours – Jon Harris — Unlikely —
Black Swan – Andrew Weisblum — Unlikely —

Best Cinematography

True Grit – Roger Deakins (c-1/25) — Strong —

Inception – Wally Pfister — Potential Upset —
Black Swan – Matthew Libatique — Potential Upset —
The Social Network – Jeff Cronenweth — Unlikely —
The King’s Speech – Danny Cohen — Unlikely —

Best Art Direction

Alice in Wonderland – Robert Stromberg, Karen O’Hara, Peter Young (c-4/13) — Neck-and-Neck —

Inception – Guy Hendrix Dyas, Lisa Chugg — Neck-and-Neck —
The King’s Speech – Eve Stewart, Judy Farr — Neck-and-Neck —
True Grit – Jess Gonchor — Potential Upset —
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part I – Stuart Craig, Stephanie McMillan — Unlikely —

Best Costume Design

The King’s Speech – Jenny Beavan (c-4/13) — Neck-and-Neck —

Alice in Wonderland – Colleen Atwood — Neck-and-Neck —
The Tempest – Sandy Powell — Potential Upset —
True Grit – Mary Zophres — Long Shot —
I Am Love – Antonella Cannarozzi — Long Shot —

Best Makeup

The Wolfman (c-1/25) — Strong —

Barney’s Version — Potential Upset —
The Way Back — Unlikely —

Best Sound Mixing

Inception (c-8/26) — Strong —

The King’s Speech — Potential Upset —
The Social Network — Potential Upset —
True Grit — Potential Upset —
Salt — Long Shot —

Best Sound Editing

Inception (c-4/13) — Strong —

True Grit — Potential Upset —
TRON Legacy — Unlikely —
Toy Story 3 — Unlikely —
Unstoppable — Unlikely —

Best Visual Effects

Inception (c-4/13) — Lock —

Alice in Wonderland — Potential Upset —
Hereafter — Unlikely —
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part I — Unlikely —
Iron Man 2 — Long Shot —

Best Foreign Film

In a Better World – Denmark (c-1/19) — Neck-and-Neck —

Incendies – Canada — Neck-and-Neck —
Biutiful – Mexico — Potential Upset —
Hors la Loi (Outside the Law) – Algeria — Potential Upset —
Dogtooth – Greece — Unlikely —

Best Documentary Feature

Inside Job (c-1/25) — Neck-and-Neck —

Exit Through the Gift Shop — Neck-and-Neck —
Restrepo — Potential Upset —
Gasland — Potential Upset —
Waste Land — Potential Upset —

Best Documentary Short Subject

Sun Come Up (c-10/26) — Neck-and-Neck —

The Warriors of Qiugang — Neck-and-Neck —
Killing in the Name — Neck-and-Neck —
Strangers No More — Neck-and-Neck —
Poster Girl — Neck-and-Neck —

Best Animated Short Film

Day & Night (c-11/30) — Neck-and-Neck —

The Lost Thing — Neck-and-Neck —
Let’s Pollute — Potential Upset —
The Gruffalo — Potential Upset —
Madagascar, Carnet de Voyage (Madagascar, A Journey Diary) — Potential Upset —