84th Academy Awards (2011): Winner Predictions

AWARDS
5 2 – 1 – – – – – – – – – – – – –	The Artist The Help Hugo Anonymous Beginners The Descendents The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore In Darkness The Iron Lady Midnight in Paris The Muppets Raju Rango Rise of the Planet of the Apes The Tsunami and the Cherry Blossom Undefeated War Horse

Predictions are in the order I think they have a chance of winning the award (except the short film categories, which are unranked and each listed as “Toss Up”). I have added notations to each indicating how strong I think they are a contender.

LEGEND:
Winner Prediction (c-Win Pred Date Set)— Chance at Win —
Other Nominees— Chance at Win —

Best Picture

The Artist (c-12/19) — Strong Lead —

The Descendents — Potential Spoiler —
Hugo — Potential Spoiler —
The Help — Unlikely —
Midnight in Paris — No Shot —
War Horse — No Shot —
The Tree of Life — No Shot —
Moneyball — No Shot —
Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close — No Shot —

Best Animated Feature

Rango (c-1/24) — Strong Lead —

Kung Fu Panda 2 — Potential Spoiler —
Puss in Boots — Potential Spoiler —
A Cat in Paris — Unlikely —
Chico & Rita — Unlikely —

Best Director

The Artist – Michel Hazanavicius (c-1/2) — Weak Lead —

Hugo – Martin Scorsese — Potential Spoiler —
The Descendents – Alexander Payne — Potential Spoiler —
The Tree of Life – Terrence Malick — Unlikely —
Midnight in Paris – Woody Allen — No Shot —

Best Actor

The Artist – Jean Dujardin (c-2/16) — Weak Lead —

Moneyball – Brad Pitt — Potential Spoiler —
The Descendents – George Clooney — Potential Spoiler —
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy – Gary Oldman — Potential Spoiler —
A Better Life – Demian Bichir — No Shot —

Best Actress

The Help – Viola Davis (c-2/17) — Weak Lead —

The Iron Lady – Meryl Streep — Potential Spoiler —
My Week with Marilyn – Michelle Williams — Potential Spoiler —
Albert Nobbs – Glenn Close — Unlikely —
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo – Rooney Mara — No Shot —

Best Supporting Actor

Beginners – Christopher Plummer (c-5/18) — Strong Lead —

Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close – Max von Sydow — Potential Spoiler —
My Week with Marilyn – Kenneth Branagh — Potential Spoiler —
Warrior – Nick Nolte — Unlikely —
Moneyball – Jonah Hill — No Shot —

Best Supporting Actress

The Help – Octavia Spencer (c-1/24) — Strong Lead —

Bridesmaids – Melissa McCarthy — Potential Spoiler —
The Help – Jessica Chastain — Potential Spoiler —
The Artist – Bérénice Bejo — Unlikely —
Albert Nobbs – Janet McTeer — Unlikely —

Best Original Screenplay

Midnight in Paris – Woody Allen (c-2/22) — Weak Lead —

TheArtist – Michel Hazanavicius — Potential Spoiler —
A Separation – Asghar Farhadi — Potential Spoiler —
Bridesmaids – Kristen Wiig, Annie Mumolo — Unlikely —
Margin Call – J.C. Chandor — No Shot —

Best Adapted Screenplay

The Descendents – Alexander Payne, Nat Faxon, Jim Rash (Novel: Kaui Hart Hemmings) (c-1/24) — Strong Lead —

Moneyball – Steven Zaillian, Aaron Sorkin, Stan Chervin (Book: Michael Lewis) — Potential Spoiler —
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy – Bridget O’Connor, Peter Straughan (Novel: John Le Carré) — Potential Spoiler —
Hugo – John Logan (Book: Brian Selznick) — Potential Spoiler —
The Ides of March – George Clooney, Grant Heslov (Play: Beau Willimon) — No Shot —

Best Original Score

The Artist – Ludovic Bource (c-1/2) — Strong Lead —

Hugo – Howard Shore — Potential Spoiler —
War Horse – John Williams — Potential Spoiler —
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy – Alberto Iglesias — Unlikely —
The Adventures of Tintin – John Williams — Unlikely —

Best Original Song

The Muppets – Man or Muppet (c-1/24) — Weak Lead —

Rio – Real in Rio — Potential Spoiler —

Best Editing

The Artist (c-2/20) — Weak Lead —

The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo — Potential Spoiler —
The Descendents — Potential Spoiler —
Hugo — Potential Spoiler —
Moneyball — Potential Spoiler —

Best Cinematography

The Tree of Life (c-2/15) — Weak Lead —

War Horse — Potential Spoiler —
Hugo — Potential Spoiler —
The Artist — Potential Spoiler —
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo — Unlikely —

Best Art Direction

Hugo (c-1/24) — Weak Lead —

The Artist — Potential Spoiler —
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part 2 — Potential Spoiler —
War Horse — Unlikely —
Midnight in Paris — Unlikely —

Best Costume Design

Anonymous (c-1/24) — Weak Lead —

The Artist — Potential Spoiler —
Hugo — Potential Spoiler —
W.E. — Potential Spoiler —
Jane Eyre — Potential Spoiler —

Best Makeup

The Iron Lady (c-1/2) — Weak Lead —

Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part 2 — Potential Spoiler —
Albert Nobbs — Potential Spoiler —

Best Sound Mixing

Hugo (c-2/20) — Weak Lead —

War Horse — Potential Spoiler —
Transformers: Dark Side of the Moon — Potential Spoiler —
Moneyball — Unlikely —
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo — Unlikely —

Best Sound Editing

War Horse (c-1/24) — Strong Lead —

Transformers: Dark Side of the Moon — Potential Spoiler —
Drive — Potential Spoiler —
Hugo — Potential Spoiler —
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo — Unlikely —

Best Visual Effects

Rise of the Planet of the Apes (c-8/15) — Weak Lead —

Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part 2 — Potential Spoiler —
Hugo — Potential Spoiler —
Transformers: Dark Side of the Moon — Unlikely —
Real Steel — Unlikely —

Best Foreign Film

In Darkness – Poland (c-2/22) — Weak Lead —

A Separation – Iran — Weak Lead —
Bullhead – Belgium — Unlikely —
Monsieur Lazhar – Canada — Unlikely —
Footnote – Israel — Unlikely —

Best Documentary Feature

Undefeated (c-2/20) — Weak Lead —

Hell and Back Again — Potential Spoiler —
Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory — Potential Spoiler —
If a Tree Falls: A Story of the Earth Liberation Front — Potential Spoiler —
Pina — Potential Spoiler —

Best Documentary Short Subject

The Tsunami and the Cherry Blossom (c-1/24) — Weak Lead —

God Is the Bigger Elvis — Potential Spoiler —
Saving Face — Potential Spoiler —
The Barber of Birmingham: Foot Soldier of the Civil Rights Movement — Potential Spoiler —
Incident in New Baghdad — Potential Spoiler —