86th Academy Awards (2013): The Contenders

Last Updated: December 4, 2013

While my The Hopefuls article lists my individual predictions in various categories, here’s a simple list of current and past contenders for 2013, categorized based on their chances.

  • Strong: Based on strong buzz from festivals or performance with critics, box office or audiences, these are the top tier contenders this year.
  • Good: While they haven’t earned the level of buzz the Strong films have, these are still serious threats for nomination.
  • Average: Either through week performance at the box office or with critics, these films could build a strong campaign that results in multiple nominations, but the Strong and Good have better chances.
  • Minor: At some point, these films were either major players that suffered from box office problems or poor reception from critics that still remain contenders in some categories, but which have been significantly weakened by various factors.
  • Failure: The box office was bad, the reviews were terrible or a combination of other factors have turned these once-contenders into failures. There is still the possibility that some of the creative or tech categories could be in reach, but they’ll have to find a weak field in which to compete in order to get there.
  • Uncertain: There are so many factors working for and against these films, it’s hard for me to know for sure whether or not the Academy will embrace them.
  • Pending: Films that haven’t been released yet or are pending festival showings, these movies are major contenders on paper and minimal buzz keeps them in contention, but flops at the box office or with critics could send them spiraling into failure territory.

Each film also lists the areas at the Oscars they are most likely to compete in. These are bundled groupings to indicate their strength in the general areas of the Academy Awards as outlined below.

  • Major: Picture, Director and Acting Categories
  • Support: Writing, Music, Editing and Cinematography Categories
  • Creative: Production Design, Costume Design, Makeup and Hairstyling Categories
  • Tech: Visual Effects and Sound Categories
  • Animation: Animated Feature
  • Documentary: Documentary Feature
  • Foreign: Foreign Language Film (requires submission by country of origin)
  • Individual: Those that don’t have a lot of chances in the broader categories above, but could be threats in individual categories.

The Contenders

STRONG

12 Years a Slave (Fox Searchlight; Rated: R) – Major, Support, Creative
     (Released: Oct 18 – Box Office: $33,515,275 – Rotten Tomatoes: 96% – MetaCritic: 97)
All Is Lost (Lionsgate; Rated: PG-13) – Major
     (Released: Oct 18 – Box Office: $5,271,372 – Rotten Tomatoes: 94% – MetaCritic: 88)
American Hustle (Columbia; Rated: R) – Major, Support, Creative
     (Released: Dec 13 – Box Office: $ – Rotten Tomatoes: 100% – MetaCritic: )
Blue Jasmine (Sony Pictures Classics; Rated: PG-13) – Major, Support
     (Released: Jul 26 – Box Office: $32,744,634 – Rotten Tomatoes: 90% – MetaCritic: 77)
Dallas Buyers Club (Focus; Rated: R) – Major, Support
     (Released: Dec 6 – Box Office: $10,578,444 – Rotten Tomatoes: 94% – MetaCritic: 84)
Despicable Me 2 (Universal; Rated: PG) – Animation
     (Released: Jul 3 – Box Office: $366,960,870 – Rotten Tomatoes: 76% – MetaCritic: 62)
Frozen (Buena Vista; Rated: PG) – Animation
     (Released: Nov 29 – Box Office: $98,938,411 – Rotten Tomatoes: 86% – MetaCritic: 74)
Gravity (Warner Bros.; Rated: PG-13) – Major, Support, Tech
     (Released: Oct 4 – Box Office: $250,000,975 – Rotten Tomatoes: 97% – MetaCritic: 96)
Inside Llewyn Davis (CBS Films; Rated: R) – Major, Support, Creative, Tech
     (Released: Dec 6 – Box Office: $ – Rotten Tomatoes: 94% – MetaCritic: 94)
Iron Man 3 (Buena Vista; Rated: PG-13) – Tech
     (Released: May 3 – Box Office: $409,013,994 – Rotten Tomatoes: 78% – MetaCritic: 62)
Monsters University (Buena Vista; Rated: G) – Animation
     (Released: Jun 21 – Box Office: $268,449,861 – Rotten Tomatoes: 78% – MetaCritic: 65)
Saving Mr. Banks (Buena Vista; Rated: PG-13) – Major, Support, Creative
     (Released: Dec 20 – Box Office: $ – Rotten Tomatoes: 92% – MetaCritic: 74)
The Wind Rises (Disney/Touchstone; Rated: PG-13) – Animation
     (Released: Nov 8 – Box Office: $ – Rotten Tomatoes: 84% – MetaCritic: 84)

GOOD

20 Feet from Stardom (Radius / Weinstein; Rated: PG-13) – Documentary
     (Released: Jun 14 – Box Office: $4,774,371 – Rotten Tomatoes: 99% – MetaCritic: 83)
Act of Killing (Drafthouse; Rated: NR) – Documentary
     (Released: Jul 19 – Box Office: $451,157 – Rotten Tomatoes: 97% – MetaCritic: 89)
Blackfish (Magnolia; Rated: PG-13) – Documentary
     (Released: Jul 19 – Box Office: $2,073,582 – Rotten Tomatoes: 98% – MetaCritic: 83)
Captain Phillips (Columbia; Rated: PG-13) – Major, Support, Tech
     (Released: Oct 11 – Box Office: $102,857,402 – Rotten Tomatoes: 94% – MetaCritic: 83)
The Croods (Fox; Rated: PG) – Animation
     (Released: Mar 22 – Box Office: $187,168,425 – Rotten Tomatoes: 69% – MetaCritic: 55)
Dirty Wars (IFC; Rated: NR) – Documentary
     (Released: Jun 7 – Box Office: $371,245 – Rotten Tomatoes: 82% – MetaCritic: 78)
Fruitvale Station (Weinstein; Rated: R) – Major, Support
     (Released: Jul 12 – Box Office: $16,101,339 – Rotten Tomatoes: 94% – MetaCritic: 85)
Her (Warner Bros.; Rated: R) – Major, Support
     (Released: Dec 20 – Box Office: $ – Rotten Tomatoes: 100% – MetaCritic: 95)
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug (Warner Bros.; Rated: PG-13) – Creative, Tech
     (Released: Dec 13 – Box Office: $ – Rotten Tomatoes: % – MetaCritic: )
Lee Daniels’ The Butler (Weinstein; Rated: PG-13) – Major, Support, Creative
     (Released: Aug 16 – Box Office: $115,649,659 – Rotten Tomatoes: 72% – MetaCritic: 66)
Man of Steel (Warner Bros.; Rated: PG-13) – Tech
     (Released: Jun 14 – Box Office: $291,045,518 – Rotten Tomatoes: 56% – MetaCritic: 55)
Nebraska (Paramount; Rated: R) – Major, Support
     (Released: Nov 22 – Box Office: $1,603,025 – Rotten Tomatoes: 91% – MetaCritic: 85)
The Past (Sony Pictures Classics; Rated: PG-13) – Major, Support, Foreign
     (Released: Dec 20 – Box Office: $ – Rotten Tomatoes: 95% – MetaCritic: 76)
Philomena (Weinstein; Rated: PG-13) – Major, Support
     (Released: Nov 27 – Box Office: $5,329,091 – Rotten Tomatoes: 92% – MetaCritic: 76)
The Secret Life of Walter Mitty (20th Century Fox; Rated: PG) – Major, Support, Creative, Tech
     (Released: Dec 27 – Box Office: $ – Rotten Tomatoes: 33% – MetaCritic: 44)
Stories We Tell (Roadside Attractions; Rated: PG-13) – Documentary
     (Released: May 17 – Box Office: $1,600,145 – Rotten Tomatoes: 95% – MetaCritic: 90)
Turbo (Fox; Rated: PG) – Animation
     (Released: Jul 17 – Box Office: $83,009,202 – Rotten Tomatoes: 64% – MetaCritic: 59)
The Wolf of Wall Street (Paramount; Rated: R) – Major, Support
     (Released: Dec 25 – Box Office: $ – Rotten Tomatoes: % – MetaCritic: )

AVERAGE

August: Osage County (Weinstein; Rated: R) – Major, Support
     (Released: Dec 27 – Box Office: $ – Rotten Tomatoes: 75% – MetaCritic: 67)
Before Midnight (Sony Pictures Classics; Rated: R) – Major, Support
     (Released: May 24 – Box Office: $8,114,627 – Rotten Tomatoes: 98% – MetaCritic: 94)
Blue Is the Warmest Color (Sundance Selects; Rated: NC-17) – Major, Support
     (Released: Oct 25 – Box Office: $1,650,594 – Rotten Tomatoes: 90% – MetaCritic: 89)
Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs (Columbia; Rated: PG) – Animation
     (Released: Sep 27 – Box Office: $115,075,328 – Rotten Tomatoes: 71% – MetaCritic: 59)
Cutie and the Boxer (Radius / Weinstein; Rated: R) – Documentary
     (Released: Aug 16 – Box Office: $170,449 – Rotten Tomatoes: 98% – MetaCritic: 84)
Elysium (TriStar; Rated: R) – Creative, Tech
     (Released: Aug 9 – Box Office: $93,050,117 – Rotten Tomatoes: 68% – MetaCritic: 61)
The Great Gatsby (Warner Bros.; Rated: PG-13) – Major, Support Creative
     (Released: May 10 – Box Office: $144,840,419 – Rotten Tomatoes: 49% – MetaCritic: 55)
The Hunger Games: Catching Fire (Lionsgate; Rated: PG-13) – Creative, Tech
     (Released: Nov 22 – Box Office: $303,708,162 – Rotten Tomatoes: 89% – MetaCritic: 75)
Lone Survivor (Universal; Rated: R) – Major, Support, Tech
     (Released: Dec 27 – Box Office: $ – Rotten Tomatoes: 73% – MetaCritic: )
Mud (Roadside Attractions; Rated: PG-13) – Supporting Actor
     (Released: Apr 26 – Box Office: $21,590,086 – Rotten Tomatoes: 98% – MetaCritic: 76)
Oz the Great and Powerful (Buena Vista; Rated: PG) – Creative, Tech
     (Released: Mar 8 – Box Office: $234,911,825 – Rotten Tomatoes: 59% – MetaCritic: 44)
Pacific Rim (Warner Bros.; Rated: PG-13) – Creative, Tech
     (Released: Jul 12 – Box Office: $101,802,906 – Rotten Tomatoes: 72% – MetaCritic: 64)
Prisoners (Warner Bros.; Rated: R) – Major, Support
     (Released: Sep 20 – Box Office: $60,983,710 – Rotten Tomatoes: 81% – MetaCritic: 74)
Rush (Universal; Rated: R) – Major, Support, Creative, Tech
     (Released: Sep 27 – Box Office: $26,947,624 – Rotten Tomatoes: 88% – MetaCritic: 75)
Short Term 12 (Cinedigm; Rated: R) – Major, Support, Creative, Tech
     (Released: Aug 23 – Box Office: $1,000,707 – Rotten Tomatoes: 98% – MetaCritic: 82)
The Spectacular Now (A24; Rated: R) – Major, Support
     (Released: Aug 2 – Box Office: $6,852,445 – Rotten Tomatoes: 93% – MetaCritic: 82)
Spring Breakers (A24; Rated: R) – Major, Support
     (Released: Mar 15 – Box Office: $14,124,284 – Rotten Tomatoes: 65% – MetaCritic: 63)
Star Trek: Into Darkness (Paramount; Rated: PG-13) – Creative, Tech
     (Released: May 16 – Box Office: $228,778,661 – Rotten Tomatoes: 87% – MetaCritic: 72)

MINOR

42 (Warner Bros.; Rated: PG-13) – Major, Creative
     (Released: Apr 12 – Box Office: $95,020,213 – Rotten Tomatoes: 77% – MetaCritic: 62)
Ain’t Them Bodies Saints (IFC; Rated: R) – Major, Creative
     (Released: Aug 16 – Box Office: $391,611 – Rotten Tomatoes: 76% – MetaCritic: 74)
The Book Thief (20th Century Fox; Rated: PG-13) – Major, Support, Creative
     (Released: Nov 15 – Box Office: $8,675,595 – Rotten Tomatoes: 48% – MetaCritic: 53)
Epic (Fox; Rated: PG) – Animation
     (Released: May 24 – Box Office: $107,518,682 – Rotten Tomatoes: 64% – MetaCritic: 52)
Frances Ha (IFC; Rated: R) – Actress, Screenplay
     (Released: May 17 – Box Office: $4,066,582 – Rotten Tomatoes: 93% – MetaCritic: 82)
Labor Day (Paramount; Rated: PG-13) – Major, Support
     (Released: Dec 27 – Box Office: $ – Rotten Tomatoes: 63% – MetaCritic: 66)
Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom (Weinstein; Rated: PG-13) – Major, Support, Creative
     (Released: Nov 29 – Box Office: $9,365 – Rotten Tomatoes: 56% – MetaCritic: 59)
Much Ado About Nothing (Roadside Attractions; Rated: PG-13) – Major, Support
     (Released: Jun 7 – Box Office: $4,328,849 – Rotten Tomatoes: 84% – MetaCritic: 78)
Out of the Furnace (Relativity; Rated: R) – Major, Support
     (Released: Dec 6 – Box Office: $ – Rotten Tomatoes: 59% – MetaCritic: 73)
The Place Beyond the Pines (Focus; Rated: R) – Major, Support
     (Released: Mar 29 – Box Office: $21,403,519 – Rotten Tomatoes: 82% – MetaCritic: 68)
Planes (Buena Vista; Rated: PG) – Animation
     (Released: Aug 9 – Box Office: $90,211,066 – Rotten Tomatoes: 26% – MetaCritic: 39)
The Sapphires (Weinstein; Rated: PG-13) – Major, Support, Creative
     (Released: Mar 22 – Box Office: $2,450,867 – Rotten Tomatoes: 92% – MetaCritic: 67)
Side Effects (Open Road; Rated: R) – Major, Support
     (Released: Feb 8 – Box Office: $32,172,757 – Rotten Tomatoes: 84% – MetaCritic: 75)
Thor: The Dark World (Buena Vista; Rated: PG-13) – Creative, Tech
     (Released: Nov 8 – Box Office: $187,891,632 – Rotten Tomatoes: 65% – MetaCritic: 54)
To the Wonder (Magnolia; Rated: R) – Major, Support
     (Released: Apr 12 – Box Office: $587,615 – Rotten Tomatoes: 43% – MetaCritic: 58)
The Way, Way Back (Fox Searchlight; Rated: PG-13) – Major, Support
     (Released: Jul 5 – Box Office: $21,502,690 – Rotten Tomatoes: 85% – MetaCritic: 67)
World War Z (Paramount; Rated: PG-13) – Tech
     (Released: Jun 21 – Box Office: $202,359,711 – Rotten Tomatoes: 67% – MetaCritic: 63)
The World’s End (Focus; Rated: R) – Support
     (Released: Aug 23 – Box Office: $26,004,007 – Rotten Tomatoes: 90% – MetaCritic: 81)

FAILURE

56 Up (First Run; Rated: NR) – Documentary
     (Released: Jan 4 – Box Office: $701,278 – Rotten Tomatoes: 100% – MetaCritic: 83)
After Earth (Sony; Rated: PG-13) – Tech
     (Released: May 31 – Box Office: $60,522,097 – Rotten Tomatoes: 11% – MetaCritic: 33)
Beautiful Creatures (Warner Bros.; Rated: PG-13) – Creative
     (Released: Feb 14 – Box Office: $19,452,138 – Rotten Tomatoes: 46% – MetaCritic: 52)
Berberian Sound Studio (IFC; Rated: NR) – Actor, Sound Editing
     (Released: Jun 14 – Box Office: $31,641 – Rotten Tomatoes: 82% – MetaCritic: 80)
Bidder 70 (First Run; Rated: NR) – Documentary
     (Released: May 17 – Box Office: $5,074 – Rotten Tomatoes: 78% – MetaCritic: 61)
The Bling Ring (A24; Rated: R) – Major, Support
     (Released: Jun 14 – Box Office: $5,845,732 – Rotten Tomatoes: 60% – MetaCritic: 66)
Blood Brother (Tugg / Cinedigm; Rated: NR) – Documentary
     (Released: Oct 18 – Box Office: $ – Rotten Tomatoes: 78% – MetaCritic: 70)
Blue Caprice (Sundance Selects; Rated: R) – Major, Support
     (Released: Sep 13 – Box Office: $92,336 – Rotten Tomatoes: 86% – MetaCritic: 76)
Byzantium (IFC; Rated: R) – Major, Support, Creative
     (Released: Jun 28 – Box Office: $85,252 – Rotten Tomatoes: 60% – MetaCritic: 66)
The Counselor (20th Century Fox; Rated: R) – Major, Support
     (Released: Oct 25 – Box Office: $16,863,690 – Rotten Tomatoes: 35% – MetaCritic: 48)
Diana (Entertainment One; Rated: PG-13) – Actress
     (Released: Nov 1 – Box Office: $335,359 – Rotten Tomatoes: 8% – MetaCritic: 36)
Ender’s Game (Summit / Lionsgate; Rated: PG-13) – Tech
     (Released: Nov 1 – Box Office: $59,510,972 – Rotten Tomatoes: 62% – MetaCritic: 51)
Escape from Planet Earth (Weinstein; Rated: PG) – Animation
     (Released: Feb 15 – Box Office: $57,012,977 – Rotten Tomatoes: 27% – MetaCritic: 35)
The Fifth Estate (Touchstone; Rated: R) – Major, Support
     (Released: Oct 11 – Box Office: $3,254,172 – Rotten Tomatoes: 38% – MetaCritic: 49)
Free Angela and All Political Prisoners (Code Black; Rated: NR) – Documentary
     (Released: Apr 5 – Box Office: $194,102 – Rotten Tomatoes: 92% – MetaCritic: 73)
Free Birds (Relativity; Rated: PG) – Animation
     (Released: Nov 1 – Box Office: $53,375,277 – Rotten Tomatoes: 18% – MetaCritic: 38)
Gangster Squad (Warner Bros.; Rated: R) – Major, Support, Creative
     (Released: Jan 11 – Box Office: $46,000,903 – Rotten Tomatoes: 32% – MetaCritic: 40)
The Grandmaster (Weinstein; Rated: PG-13) – Major, Foreign
     (Released: Aug 23 – Box Office: $6,594,959 – Rotten Tomatoes: 74% – MetaCritic: 73)
Happy People: A Year in the Taiga (Music Box; Rated: NR) – Documentary
     (Released: Jan 25 – Box Office: $338,987 – Rotten Tomatoes: 87% – MetaCritic: 74)
The Iceman (Millennium; Rated: R) – Actor
     (Released: May 3 – Box Office: $1,969,193 – Rotten Tomatoes: 68% – MetaCritic: 60)
I’m So Excited (Sony Pictures Classics; Rated: R) – Support
     (Released: Jun 28 – Box Office: $1,368,119 – Rotten Tomatoes: 48% – MetaCritic: 55)
Jobs (Open Road; Rated: PG-13) – Actor
     (Released: Aug 16 – Box Office: $16,131,410 – Rotten Tomatoes: 25% – MetaCritic: 44)
Koch (Zeitgeist; Rated: NR) – Documentary
     (Released: Feb 1 – Box Office: $342,941 – Rotten Tomatoes: 89% – MetaCritic: 71)
The Lone Ranger (Buena Vista; Rated: PG-13) – Support, Creative, Tech
     (Released: Jul 3 – Box Office: $89,302,115 – Rotten Tomatoes: 30% – MetaCritic: 37)
No Place on Earth (Magnolia; Rated: PG-13) – Documentary
     (Released: Apr 5 – Box Office: $200,238 – Rotten Tomatoes: 77% – MetaCritic: 58)
Oblivion (Universal; Rated: PG-13) – Tech
     (Released: Apr 19 – Box Office: $89,107,235 – Rotten Tomatoes: 54% – MetaCritic: 54)
Oldboy (Film District; Rated: R) – Major, Support
     (Released: Nov 29 – Box Office: $1,486,440 – Rotten Tomatoes: 42% – MetaCritic: 50)
Olympus Has Fallen (Film District; Rated: R) – Tech
     (Released: Mar 22 – Box Office: $98,925,640 – Rotten Tomatoes: 47% – MetaCritic: 41)
Only God Forgives (Radius / Weinstein; Rated: R) – Major, Support
     (Released: Jul 19 – Box Office: $779,188 – Rotten Tomatoes: 40% – MetaCritic: 37)
Our Nixon (Cinedigm; Rated: NR) – Documentary
     (Released: Aug 30 – Box Office: $20,584 – Rotten Tomatoes: 89% – MetaCritic: 72)
Percy Jackson: Sea of Monsters (Fox; Rated: PG) – Creative, Tech
     (Released: Aug 7 – Box Office: $68,249,625 – Rotten Tomatoes: 38% – MetaCritic: 39)
A Place at the Table (Magnolia; Rated: PG) – Documentary
     (Released: Mar 1 – Box Office: $231,378 – Rotten Tomatoes: 89% – MetaCritic: 68)
Prince Avalanche (Magnolia; Rated: R) – Major, Support
     (Released: Aug 9 – Box Office: $205,139 – Rotten Tomatoes: 83% – MetaCritic: 72)
R.I.P.D. (Universal; Rated: PG-13) – Creative, Tech
     (Released: Jul 19 – Box Office: $33,618,855 – Rotten Tomatoes: 11% – MetaCritic: 25)
Room 237 (IFC; Rated: NR) – Documentary
     (Released: Mar 29 – Box Office: $263,411 – Rotten Tomatoes: 93% – MetaCritic: 80)
Salinger (Weinstein; Rated: PG-13) – Documentary
     (Released: Sep 6 – Box Office: $583,633 – Rotten Tomatoes: 34% – MetaCritic: 40)
Terms and Conditions May Apply (Variance; Rated: NR) – Documentary
     (Released: Jul 12 – Box Office: $55,039 – Rotten Tomatoes: 85% – MetaCritic: 68)
Violet & Daisy (Cinedigm; Rated: R) – Major, Support
     (Released: Jun 7 – Box Office: $17,186 – Rotten Tomatoes: 22% – MetaCritic: 43)
Warm Bodies (Summit / Lionsgate; Rated: PG-13) – Major, Support
     (Released: Feb 1 – Box Office: $66,380,662 – Rotten Tomatoes: 81% – MetaCritic: 59)
We Steal Secrets: The Story of Wikileaks (Focus; Rated: R) – Documentary
     (Released: May 24 – Box Office: $166,243 – Rotten Tomatoes: 95% – MetaCritic: 76)
What Maisie Knew (Millennium; Rated: R) – Major, Support
     (Released: May 3 – Box Office: $1,066,471 – Rotten Tomatoes: 88% – MetaCritic: 74)
White House Down (Sony; Rated: PG-13) – Tech
     (Released: Jun 28 – Box Office: $73,103,784 – Rotten Tomatoes: 47% – MetaCritic: 52)

UNCERTAIN

None

PENDING

Walking with Dinosaurs (20th Century Fox; Rated: PG) – Animation, Tech
     (Released: Dec 20 – Box Office: $ – Rotten Tomatoes: % – MetaCritic: )


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