86th Academy Awards (2013): Winner Predictions

Last Updated: February 27, 2014

AWARDS

7
3

2
1







Gravity
12 Years a Slave
Dallas Buyers Club
Frozen
20 Feet from Stardom
American Hustle
Blue Jasmine
Captain Phillips
Get a Horse!
The Great Beauty
The Great Gatsby
Helium
The Lady in Number 6: Music Saved My Life

Predictions are in the order I think they have a chance of winning the award (except the short film categories, which are unranked). I have added notations to each indicating how strong I think they are a contender.

LEGEND:
Winner Prediction (c-Win Pred Date Set) — Chance at Win —
Other Nominees — Chance at Win —

CHANCE AT WIN:
Guarantee: I wouldn’t bet on anything else.
Certain: Almost guaranteed, but there’s always a kernel of doubt.
Likely: The most likely winner, but a spoiler is waiting in the wings.
Toss Up: This race is too close to call for all those labelled toss ups.
Spoiler: This is a title that isn’t necessarily a sure thing, but is running close enough it could upset the predicted victor.
Doubtful: It’s not likely these titles will win, but there’s still a possibility.
Long Shot: There is very little likelihood that they’ll win.

Best Picture

  • Gravity (c-2/27) — Toss Up —
  • 12 Years a Slave — Toss Up —
  • American Hustle — Spoiler —
  • Captain Phillips — Doubtful —
  • Philomena — Doubtful —
  • Nebraska — Doubtful —
  • The Wolf of Wall Street — Doubtful —
  • Her — Long Shot —
  • Dallas Buyers Club — Long Shot —

Best Animated Film

  • Frozen (c-1/8) — Certain —
  • The Wind Rises — Spoiler —
  • Ernest & Celestine — Spoiler —
  • Despicable Me 2 — Long Shot —
  • The Croods — Long Shot —

Best Director

  • Gravity – Alfonso Cuaron (c-2/17) — Safe Bet —
  • 12 Years a Slave – Steve McQueen — Spoiler —
  • American Hustle – David O. Russell — Spoiler —
  • Nebraska – Alexander Payne — Doubtful —
  • The Wolf of Wall Street – Martin Scorsese — Doubtful —

Best Actor

  • Matthew McConaughey – Dallas Buyers Club (c-4/28) — Likely —
  • Chiwetel Ejiofor – 12 Years a Slave — Spoiler —
  • Bruce Dern – Nebraska — Spoiler —
  • Leonardo DiCaprio – The Wolf of Wall Street — Spoiler —
  • Christian Bale – American Hustle — Long Shot —

Best Actress

  • Cate Blanchett – Blue Jasmine (c-8/25) — Certain —
  • Amy Adams – American Hustle — Spoiler —
  • Judi Dench – Philomena — Spoiler —
  • Sandra Bullock – Gravity — Long Shot —
  • Meryl Streep – August: Osage County — Long Shot —

Best Supporting Actor

  • Jared Leto – Dallas Buyers Club (c-1/8) — Likely —
  • Barkhad Abdi – Captain Phillips — Spoiler —
  • Michael Fassbender – 12 Years a Slave — Spoiler —
  • Bradley Cooper – American Hustle — Doubtful —
  • Jonah Hill – The Wolf of Wall Street — Long Shot —

Best Supporting Actress

  • Lupita Nyong’o – 12 Years a Slave (c-10/24) — Toss Up —
  • Jennifer Lawrence – American Hustle — Toss Up —
  • June Squibb – Nebraska — Spoiler —
  • Sally Hawkins – Blue Jasmine — Spoiler —
  • Julia Roberts – August: Osage County — Long Shot —

Best Original Screenplay

  • American Hustle – Eric Singer, David O. Russell (c-2/26) — Toss Up —
  • Her – Spike Jonze — Toss Up —
  • Nebraska – Bob Nelson — Spoiler —
  • Dallas Buyers Club – Craig Borten, Melisa Wallack — Spoiler —
  • Blue Jasmine – Woody Allen — Doubtful —

Best Adapted Screenplay

  • 12 Years a Slave – John Ridley (c-11/20) — Likely —
  • Captain Phillips – Billy Ray — Spoiler —
  • Philomena – Steve Coogan, Jeff Pope — Spoiler —
  • Before Midnight – Richard Linklater, Julie Delpy, Ethan Hawke — Doubtful —
  • The Wolf of Wall Street – Terence Winter — Doubtful —

Best Original Score

  • Gravity – Steven Price (c-10/22) — Likely —
  • Philomena – Alexandre Desplat — Spoiler —
  • The Book Thief – John Williams — Spoiler —
  • Her – William Butler and Owen Pallett — Spoiler —
  • Saving Mr. Banks – Thomas Newman — Spoiler —

Best Original Song

  • Let It Go – Frozen (c-12/16) — Certain —
  • Happy – Despicable Me 2 — Spoiler —
  • Ordinary Love – Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom — Spoiler —
  • The Moon Song – Her — Doubtful —

Best Editing

  • Captain Phillips – Christopher Rouse (c-2/24) — Toss Up —
  • Gravity – Alfonso Cuaron, Mark Sanger — Toss Up —
  • American Hustle – Jay Cassidy, Crispin Struthers — Spoiler —
  • 12 Years a Slave – Joe Walker — Spoiler —
  • Dallas Buyers Club – Martin Pensa, Jean-Marc Vallée — Long Shot —

Best Cinematography

  • Gravity – Emmanuel Lubezki (c-10/22) — Certain —
  • Nebraska – Phedon Papamichael — Spoiler —
  • Inside Llewyn Davis – Bruno Delbonnel — Spoiler —
  • Prisoners – Roger Deakins — Doubtful —
  • The Grandmaster – Philippe Le Sourd — Doubtful —

Best Production Design

  • The Great Gatsby – Catherine Martin, Beverley Dunn (c-4/22) — Likely —
  • Gravity – Andy Nicholson, Rosie Goodwin — Spoiler —
  • 12 Years a Slave – Adam Stockhausen, Alice Baker — Spoiler —
  • American Hustle – Judy Becker, Heather Loeffler — Doubtful —
  • Her – K.K. Barrett, Gene Serdena — Doubtful —

Best Costume Design

  • 12 Years a Slave – Patricia Norris (c-2/27) — Toss Up —
  • The Great Gatsby – Catherine Martin — Toss Up —
  • The Invisible Woman – Michael O’Connor — Toss Up —
  • American Hustle – Michael Wilkinson — Spoiler —
  • The Grandmaster – William Chang Suk Ping — Doubtful —

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

  • Dallas Buyers Club (c-1/16) — Likely —
  • Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa — Spoiler —
  • The Lone Ranger — Spoiler —

Best Sound Mixing

  • Gravity (c-11/20) — Likely —
  • Captain Phillips — Spoiler —
  • Inside Llewyn Davis — Doubtful —
  • The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug — Doubtful —
  • Lone Survivor — Doubtful —

Best Sound Editing

  • Gravity (c-1/16) — Likely —
  • Captain Phillips — Spoiler —
  • The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug — Doubtful —
  • All Is Lost — Doubtful —
  • Lone Survivor — Doubtful —

Best Visual Effects

  • Gravity (c-9/22) — Guarantee —
  • The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug — Spoiler —
  • The Lone Ranger — Long Shot —
  • Iron Man 3 — Long Shot —
  • Star Trek: Into Darkness — Long Shot —

Best Foreign Language Film

  • The Great Beauty – Italy (c-2/10) — Toss Up —
  • The Hunt – Denmark — Toss Up —
  • The Broken Circle Breakdown – Belgium — Toss Up —
  • Omar – Palestine — Long Shot —
  • The Missing Picture – Cambodia — Long Shot —

Best Documentary Feature

  • 20 Feet from Stardom (c-2/19) — Toss Up —
  • The Act of Killing — Toss Up —
  • Dirty Wars — Toss Up —
  • The Square — Toss Up —
  • Cutie and the Boxer — Doubtful —

Best Documentary Short Subject

  • The Lady in Number 6: Music Saved My Life (c-11/20) — Toss Up —
  • Facing Fear — Toss Up —
  • CaveDigger — Spoiler —
  • Prison Terminal: The Last Days of Private Jack Hall — Spoiler —
  • Karama Has No Walls — Spoiler —

Best Animated Short Film

  • Get a Horse! – Lauren MacMullan (c-1/8) — Likely —
  • Feral – Daniel Sousa — Spoiler —
  • Mr. Hublot – Laurent Witz, Alexandre Espigares — Spoiler —
  • Possessions – Shuhei Morita — Spoiler —
  • Room on the Broom – Max Lang, Jan Lachaeur — Spoiler —

Best Live Action Short Film

  • Helium – Anders Walter, Kim Magnusson (c-12/16) — Toss Up —
  • Aquel No Era Yo (That Wasn’t Me) – Esteban Crespo — Toss Up —
  • Avant Que De Tout Perdre (Just before Losing Everything) – Xavier Legrand, Alexandre Gavras — Toss Up —
  • Pitääkö Mun Kaikki Hoitaa? (Do I Have to Take Care of Everything?) – Selma Vilhunen, Kirsikka Saari — Toss Up —
  • The Voorman Problem – Mark Gill, Baldwin Li — Toss Up —

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