88th Academy Awards (2015): Winner Predictions

Final Update: February 26, 2016

AWARDS

6
3
1













The Revenant
Mad Max: Fury Road
Amy
Ave Maria
Chau, beyond the Lines
Cinderella
Creed
Inside Out
Room
Son of Saul
Spotlight
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
The Big Short
The Danish Girl
The Hateful Eight
The Hunting Ground
World of Tomorrow

Predictions are in the order I think they have a chance of winning the award (except the short film categories, which are unranked). I have added notations to each indicating how strong I think they are a contender.

LEGEND:
Winner Prediction (c-Win Pred Date Set) — Chance at Win —
Other Nominees — Chance at Win —

CHANCE AT WIN:
Guarantee: I wouldn’t bet on anything else.
Certain: Almost guaranteed, but there’s always a kernel of doubt.
Likely: The most likely winner, but a spoiler is waiting in the wings.
Toss Up: This race is too close to call for all those labelled toss ups.
Spoiler: This is a title that isn’t necessarily a sure thing, but is running close enough it could upset the predicted victor.
Doubtful: It’s not likely these titles will win, but there’s still a possibility.
Long Shot: There is very little likelihood that they’ll win.

Best Picture

  • The Revenant (c-2/15) — Toss Up —
  • Spotlight — Toss Up —
  • The Big Short — Toss Up —
  • Mad Max: Fury Road — Spoiler —
  • Brooklyn — Doubtful —
  • Room — Doubtful —
  • The Martian — Long Shot —
  • Bridge of Spies — Long Shot —

Best Animated Film

  • Inside Out (c-5/7) — Guarantee —
  • Anomalisa — Spoiler —
  • Boy and the World — Long Shot —
  • When Marnie Was There — Long Shot —
  • Shaun the Sheep Movie — Long Shot —

Best Director

  • The Revenant – Alejandro González Iñárritu (c-2/10) — Likely —
  • Mad Max: Fury Road – George Miller — Spoiler —
  • The Big Short – Adam McKay — Spoiler —
  • Spotlight – Tom McCarthy — Doubtful —
  • Room – Lenny Abrahamson — Long Shot —

Best Actor

  • Leonardo DiCaprio – The Revenant (c-10/5) — Guarantee —
  • Michael Fassbender – Steve Jobs — Spoiler —
  • Matt Damon – The Martian — Doubtful —
  • Bryan Cranston – Trumbo — Doubtful —
  • Eddie Redmayne – The Danish Girl — Long Shot —

Best Actress

  • Brie Larson – Room (c-1/11) — Certain —
  • Saoirse Ronan – Brooklyn — Spoiler —
  • Cate Blanchett – Carol — Doubtful —
  • Charlotte Rampling – 45 Years — Long Shot —
  • Jennifer Lawrence – Joy — Long Shot —

Best Supporting Actor

  • Sylvester Stallone – Creed (c-2/12) — Toss Up —
  • Mark Rylance – Bridge of Spies — Toss Up —
  • Mark Ruffalo – Spotlight — Toss Up —
  • Tom Hardy – The Revenant — Toss Up —
  • Christian Bale – The Big Short — Doubtful —

Best Supporting Actress

  • Alicia Vikander – The Danish Girl (c-2/8) — Toss Up —
  • Kate Winslet – Steve Jobs — Toss Up —
  • Jennifer Jason Leigh – The Hateful Eight — Spoiler —
  • Rachel McAdams – Spotlight — Spoiler —
  • Rooney Mara – Carol — Doubtful —

Best Original Screenplay

  • Spotlight – Tom McCarthy, Josh Singer (c-12/10) — Certain —
  • Straight Outta Compton – Jonathan Herman, Andrea Berloff — Spoiler —
  • Inside Out – Pete Docter, Meg LeFauve, Josh Cooley, Ronnie Del Carmen, Michael Arndt, Simon Rich — Spoiler —
  • Ex Machina – Alex Garland — Doubtful —
  • Bridge of Spies – Matt Charman, Joel Coen, Ethan Coen — Long Shot —

Best Adapted Screenplay

  • The Big Short – Adam McKay, Charles Randolph (c-1/14) — Certain —
  • Room – Emma Donoghue — Spoiler —
  • Carol – Phyllis Nagy — Spoiler —
  • Brooklyn – Nick Hornby — Doubtful —
  • The Martian – Drew Goddard — Long Shot —

Best Original Score

  • The Hateful Eight – Ennio Morricone (c-12/10) — Likely —
  • Carol – Carter Burwell — Spoiler —
  • Star Wars: The Force Awakens – John Williams — Spoiler —
  • Sicario – Johann Johansson — Doubtful —
  • Bridge of Spies – Thomas Newman — Long Shot —

Best Original Song

  • Til It Happens to You – The Hunting Ground (c-12/10) — Toss Up —
  • Writing’s On the Wall – Spectre — Toss Up —
  • Manta Ray – Racing Extinction — Toss Up —
  • Earned It – Fifty Shades of Grey — Doubtful —
  • Simple Song #3 – Youth — Long Shot —

Best Editing

  • Mad Max: Fury Road – Jason Ballantine (c-12/10) — Likely —
  • The Big Short – Hank Corwin — Spoiler —
  • The Revenant – Stephen Mirrione — Spoiler —
  • Star Wars: The Force Awakens – Maryann Brandon, Mary Jo Markey — Doubtful —
  • Spotlight – Tom McArdle — Long Shot —

Best Cinematography

  • The Revenant – Emmanuel Lubezki (c-1/14) — Certain —
  • Mad Max: Fury Road – John Seale — Spoiler —
  • Carol – Edward Lachman — Spoiler —
  • Sicario – Roger Deakins — Doubtful —
  • The Hateful Eight – Robert Richardson — Long Shot —

Best Production Design

  • Mad Max: Fury Road – Colin Gibson, Katie Sharrock, Lisa Thompson (c-1/14) — Toss Up —
  • Bridge of Spies – Adam Stockhausen, Rena DeAngelo, Bernhard Henrich — Toss Up —
  • The Revenant – Jack Fisk, Hamish Purdy — Spoiler —
  • The Danish Girl – Eve Stewart — Doubtful —
  • The Martian – Arthur Max, Celia Bobak, Zoltan Horvath — Doubtful —

Best Costume Design

  • Cinderella – Sandy Powell (c-2/15) — Toss Up —
  • Mad Max: Fury Road – Jenny Beavan — Toss Up —
  • Carol – Sandy Powell — Spoiler —
  • The Danish Girl – Paco Delgado — Doubtful —
  • The Revenant – Jacqueline West — Doubtful —

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

  • Mad Max: Fury Road (c-5/7) — Certain —
  • The Revenant — Spoiler —
  • The 100-Year-Old Man Who Climbed Out the Window and Disappeared — Doubtful —

Best Sound Mixing

  • The Revenant (c-2/21) — Toss Up —
  • Mad Max: Fury Road — Toss Up —
  • Star Wars: The Force Awakens — Toss Up —
  • The Martian — Doubtful —
  • Bridge of Spies — Long Shot —

Best Sound Editing

  • The Revenant (c-2/21) — Toss Up —
  • Mad Max: Fury Road — Toss Up —
  • Star Wars: The Force Awakens — Toss Up —
  • The Martian — Spoiler —
  • Sicario — Spoiler —

Best Visual Effects

  • Star Wars: The Force Awakens (c-5/7) — Likely —
  • Mad Max: Fury Road — Spoiler —
  • The Martian — Spoiler —
  • The Revenant — Doubtful —
  • Ex Machina — Doubtful —

Best Foreign Language Film

  • Son of Saul – Hungary (c-12/8) — Guarantee —
  • Mustang – France — Spoiler —
  • Embrace of the Serpent – Colombia — Spoiler —
  • Theeb – Jordan — Doubtful —
  • A War – Denmark — Doubtful —

Best Documentary Feature

  • Amy (c-1/14) — Guarantee —
  • Cartel Land — Spoiler —
  • The Look of Silence — Spoiler —
  • What Happened, Miss Simone? — Spoiler —
  • Winter on Fire: Ukraine’s Fight for Freedom — Spoiler —

Best Documentary Short Subject

  • Chau, beyond the Lines (c-2/15) — Toss Up —
  • Body Team 12 — Toss Up —
  • Claude Lanzmann: Spectres of the Shoah — Toss Up —
  • A Girl in the River: The Price of Forgiveness — Toss Up —
  • Last Day of Freedom — Toss Up —

Best Animated Short Film

  • World of Tomorrow (c-12/10) — Toss Up —
  • Bear Story (Historia De Un Oso) — Toss Up —
  • Prologue — Toss Up —
  • Sanjay’s Super Team — Toss Up —
  • We Can’t Live Without Cosmos — Toss Up —

Best Live Action Short Film

  • Ave Maria (c-2/15) — Toss Up —
  • Day One — Toss Up —
  • Everything Will Be Okay (Alles Wird Gut) — Toss Up —
  • Shok — Toss Up —
  • Stutterer — Toss Up —

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