89th Academy Awards (2016): Winner Predictions

FINAL: February 23, 2017

AWARDS

9
2

1









La La Land
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight
Fences
Florence Foster Jenkins
Hacksaw Ridge
Le Femme et le TGV
O.J.: Made in America
Piper
Star Trek: Beyond
The Jungle Book
The White Helmets
Toni Erdmann
Zootopia

Predictions are in the order I think they have a chance of winning the award (except the short film categories, which are unranked and each listed as “Toss Up”). I have added notations to each indicating how strong I think they are a contender.

LEGEND:
Winner Prediction (c-Win Pred Date Set) — Chance at Win —
Other Nominees — Chance at Win —

CHANCE AT WIN:
Guarantee: I wouldn’t bet on anything else.
Certain: Almost guaranteed, but there’s always a kernel of doubt.
Likely: The most likely winner, but a spoiler is waiting in the wings.
Toss Up: This race is too close to call for all those labelled toss ups.
Spoiler: This is a title that isn’t necessarily a sure thing, but is running close enough it could upset the predicted victor.
Doubtful: It’s not likely these titles will win, but there’s still a possibility.
Long Shot: There is very little likelihood that they’ll win.

Best Picture

  • La La Land – Lionsgate (c-11/15) — Guarantee —
  • Moonlight – A24 — Spoiler —
  • Hidden Figures – Fox — Doubtful —
  • Lion – Weinstein Company — Doubtful —
  • Hell or High Water – CBS Films — Doubtful —
  • Arrival – Paramount — Doubtful —
  • Manchester by the Sea – Amazon Studios — Doubtful —
  • Hacksaw Ridge – Lionsgate — Doubtful —
  • Fences – Paramount — Long Shot —

Best Animated Film

  • Zootopia – Disney (c-1/18) — Likely —
  • Kubo and the Two Strings – Laika — Toss Up —
  • The Red Turtle – Sony Pictures Classics — Doubtful —
  • Moana – Disney — Doubtful —
  • My Life as a Zucchini – GKids — Doubtful —

Best Director

  • La La Land – Damien Chazelle (c-12/5) — Certain —
  • Moonlight – Barry Jenkins — Spoiler —
  • Arrival – Denis Villeneuve — Doubtful —
  • Manchester by the Sea – Kenneth Lonergan — Doubtful —
  • Hacksaw Ridge – Mel Gibson — Doubtful —

Best Actor

  • Casey Affleck – Manchester by the Sea (c-9/18) — Likely —
  • Denzel Washington – Fences — Spoiler —
  • Viggo Mortensen – Captain Fantastic — Spoiler —
  • Ryan Gosling – La La Land — Doubtful —
  • Andrew Garfield – Hacksaw Ridge — Long Shot —

Best Actress

  • Emma Stone – La La Land (c-1/24) — Toss Up —
  • Isabelle Huppert – Elle — Toss Up —
  • Natalie Portman – Jackie — Toss Up —
  • Ruth Negga – Loving — Long Shot —
  • Meryl Streep – Florence Foster Jenkins — Long Shot —

Best Supporting Actor

  • Mahershala Ali – Moonlight (c-12/20) — Likely —
  • Dev Patel – Lion — Spoiler —
  • Jeff Bridges – Hell or High Water — Spoiler —
  • Michael Shannon – Nocturnal Animals — Doubtful —
  • Lucas Hedges – Manchester by the Sea — Long Shot —

Best Supporting Actress

  • Viola Davis – Fences (c-11/15) — Guarantee —
  • Michelle Williams – Manchester by the Sea — Spoiler —
  • Naomie Harris – Moonlight — Doubtful —
  • Nicole Kidman – Lion — Doubtful —
  • Octavia Spencer – Hidden Figures — Long Shot —

Best Original Screenplay

  • Manchester by the Sea – Kenneth Lonergan (c-9/18) — Likely —
  • La La Land – Damien Chazelle — Toss Up —
  • Hell or High Water – Taylor Sheridan — Spoiler —
  • The Lobster – Yorgos Lanthimos, Efthymis Filippou — Spoiler —
  • 20th Century Women – Mike Mills — Long Shot —

Best Adapted Screenplay

  • Moonlight – Barry Jenkins (c-11/15) — Certain —
  • Arrival – Eric Heisserer — Toss Up —
  • Fences – Tony Kushner — Toss Up —
  • Hidden Figures – Theodore Melfi, Allison Schroeder — Spoiler —
  • Lion – Luke Davies — Spoiler —

Best Original Song

  • “City of Stars” – La La Land (c-12/5) — Likely —
  • “Audition (The Fools Who Dream)” – La La Land — Toss Up —
  • “How Far I’ll Go” – Moana — Spoiler —
  • “Can’t Stop the Feeling” – Trolls — Spoiler —
  • “The Empty Chair” – Jim: The James Foley Story — Long Shot —

Best Original Score

  • La La Land – Justin Hurwitz (c-12/10) — Certain —
  • Jackie – Mica Levi — Toss Up —
  • Moonlight – Nicholas Britell — Doubtful —
  • Lion – Dustin O’Halloran, Hauschka — Toss Up —
  • Passengers – Thomas Newman — Long Shot —

Best Editing

  • La La Land – Tom Cross (c-11/15) — Likely —
  • Hell or High Water – Jake Roberts — Spoiler —
  • Hacksaw Ridge – John Gilbert — Spoiler —
  • Arrival – Joe Walker — Doubtful —
  • Moonlight – Joi McMillon, Nat Sanders — Doubtful —

Best Cinematography

  • La La Land – Linus Sandgren (c-1/18) — Likely —
  • Lion – Greig Fraser — Spoiler —
  • Moonlight – James Laxton — Spoiler —
  • Arrival – Bradford Young — Spoiler —
  • Silence – Rodrigo Prieto — Doubtful —

Best Production Design

  • La La Land – David Wasco, Sandy Reynolds-Wasco (c-2/23) — Toss Up —
  • Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them – Stuart Craig, James Hambridge; Anna Pinnock — Toss Up —
  • Passengers – Guy Hendrix Dyas — Spoiler —
  • Arrival – Patrice Vermette — Spoiler —
  • Hail, Caesar! – Jess Gonchor; Nancy Haigh — Doubtful —

Best Costume Design

  • Florence Foster Jenkins – Consolata Boyle (c-1/24) — Toss Up —
  • Allied – Joanna Johnston — Toss Up —
  • Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them – Colleen Atwood — Toss Up —
  • Jackie – Madeline Fontaine — Toss Up —
  • La La Land – Mary Zophres — Spoiler —

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

  • Star Trek: Beyond (c-12/21) — Likely —
  • A Man Called Ove — Spoiler —
  • Suicide Squad — Spoiler —

Best Sound Mixing

  • La La Land (c-1/18) — Likely —
  • Hacksaw Ridge — Spoiler —
  • Arrival — Spoiler —
  • Rogue One — Doubtful —
  • 13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi — Long Shot —

Best Sound Editing

  • Hacksaw Ridge (c-2/21) — Toss Up —
  • Arrival — Toss Up —
  • Deepwater Horizon — Spoiler —
  • La La Land — Spoiler —
  • Sully — Doubtful —

Best Visual Effects

  • The Jungle Book (c-1/18) — Likely —
  • Kubo and the Two Strings — Spoiler —
  • Doctor Strange — Spoiler —
  • Deepwater Horizon — Spoiler —
  • Rogue One — Doubtful —

Best Foreign Language Film

  • Toni Erdmann – Germany, Directed by: Maren Ade (c-12/15) — Likely —
  • Land of Mine – Denmark, Directed by: Martin Zandvliet — Spoiler —
  • The Salesman – Iran, Directed by: Asghar Farhadi — Spoiler —
  • A Man Called Ove – Sweden, Directed by: Hannes Holm — Spoiler —
  • Tanna – Australia, Directed by: Bentley Dean, Martin Butler — Long Shot —

Best Documentary Feature

  • O.J.: Made in America (c-1/18) — Certain —
  • I Am Not Your Negro — Toss Up —
  • 13th — Toss Up —
  • Life, Animated — Toss Up —
  • Fire at Sea — Toss Up —

Best Documentary Short Subject

  • The White Helmets (c-10/26) — Toss Up —
  • 4.1 Miles — Toss Up —
  • Extremis — Toss Up —
  • Joe’s Violin — Toss Up —
  • Watani: My Homeland — Toss Up —

Best Animated Short Film

  • Piper (c-11/23) — Toss Up —
  • Blind Vaysha — Toss Up —
  • Borrowed Time — Toss Up —
  • Pear Cider and Cigarettes — Toss Up —
  • Pearl — Toss Up —

Best Live Action Short Film

  • Le Femme et le TGV (c-1/24) — Toss Up —
  • Ennemis Intérieurs — Toss Up —
  • Silent Nights — Toss Up —
  • Sing (Mindenki) — Toss Up —
  • Timecode — Toss Up —

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