90th Academy Awards (2017): Winner Predictions

FINAL: February 25, 2018

AWARDS

4
3

2


1






Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
Blade Runner 2049
Coco
Darkest Hour
A Fantastic Woman
Beauty and the Beast
Call Me by Your Name
DeKalb Elementary
Faces Places
Garden Party
Heroin(e)
I, Tonya

Predictions are in the order I think they have a chance of winning the award. I have added notations to each indicating how strong I think each is as a contender.

LEGEND:
Winner Prediction (c-Win Pred Date Set) — Chance at Win —
Other Nominees — Chance at Win —

CHANCE AT WIN:
Guarantee: I wouldn’t bet on anything else.
Certain: Almost guaranteed, but there’s always a kernel of doubt.
Likely: The most likely winner, but a spoiler is waiting in the wings.
Toss Up: This race is too close to call for all those labelled toss ups.
Spoiler: This is a title that isn’t necessarily a sure thing, but is running close enough it could upset the predicted victor.
Doubtful: It’s not likely these titles will win, but there’s still a possibility.
Long Shot: There is very little likelihood that they’ll win.

Best Picture

  • Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri – Fox Searchlight (c-2/25) — Toss Up —
  • The Shape of Water – Fox Searchlight — Toss Up —
  • Get Out – Universal Pictures — Spoiler —
  • Lady Bird – A24 — Spoiler —
  • Dunkirk – Warner Bros. — Spoiler —
  • Call Me by Your Name – Sony Pictures Classics — Doubtful —
  • Phantom Thread – Focus Features — Doubtful —
  • Darkest Hour – Focus Features — Long Shot —
  • The Post – 20th Century Fox — Long Shot —

Best Animated Feature

  • Coco – Pixar (c-4/9) — Guarantee —
  • Loving Vincent – Good Deed — Spoiler —
  • Ferdinand – 20th Century Fox — Doubtful —
  • The Breadwinner – Gkids — Doubtful —
  • The Boss Baby – DreamWorks — Long Shot —

Best Directing

  • The Shape of Water – Guillermo Del Toro (c-1/16) — Certain —
  • Dunkirk – Christopher Nolan — Spoiler —
  • Get Out – Jordan Peele — Spoiler —
  • Lady Bird – Greta Gerwig — Spoiler —
  • Phantom Thread – Paul Thomas Anderson — Doubtful —

Best Actor

  • Gary Oldman – Darkest Hour (c-4/9) — Likely —
  • Timothée Chalamet – Call Me by Your Name — Spoiler —
  • Daniel Day-Lewis – Phantom Thread — Doubtful —
  • Daniel Kaluuya – Get Out — Doubtful —
  • Denzel Washington – Roman J. Israel, Esq. — Long Shot —

Best Actress

  • Frances McDormand – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (c-1/16) — Likely —
  • Saoirse Ronan – Lady Bird — Spoiler —
  • Sally Hawkins – The Shape of Water — Spoiler —
  • Margot Robbie – I, Tonya — Spoiler —
  • Meryl Streep – The Post — Long Shot —

Best Supporting Actor

  • Sam Rockwell – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (c-1/16) — Toss Up —
  • Willem Dafoe – The Florida Project — Toss Up —
  • Christopher Plummer – All the Money in the World — Spoiler —
  • Richard Jenkins – The Shape of Water — Long Shot —
  • Woody Harrelson – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri — Long Shot —

Best Supporting Actress

  • Allison Janney – I, Tonya (c-1/16) — Toss Up —
  • Laurie Metcalf – Lady Bird — Toss Up —
  • Lesley Manville – Phantom Thread — Spoiler —
  • Mary J. Blige – Mudbound — Long Shot —
  • Octavia Spencer – The Shape of Water — Long Shot —

Best Original Screenplay

  • Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri – Martin McDonagh (c-2/25) — Toss Up —
  • Get Out – Jordan Peele — Toss Up —
  • Lady Bird – Greta Gerwig — Spoiler —
  • The Shape of Water – Guillermo Del Toro, Vanessa Taylor — Doubtful —
  • The Big Sick – Emily V. Gordon, Kumail Nanjiani — Doubtful —

Best Adapted Screenplay

  • Call Me by Your Name – James Ivory (c-4/9) — Likely —
  • Mudbound – Virgil Williams, Dee Rees — Spoiler —
  • Molly’s Game – Aaron Sorkin — Spoiler —
  • The Disaster Artist – Scott Neustadter, Michael H. Weber — Doubtful —
  • Logan – Scott Frank, James Mangold, Michael Green — Doubtful —

Best Original Song

  • Remember Me – Coco (c-1/16) — Toss Up —
  • This Is Me – The Greatest Showman — Toss Up —
  • Mighty River – Mudbound — Toss Up —
  • Stand Up For Something – Marshall — Spoiler —
  • Mystery Of Love – Call Me by Your Name — Spoiler —

Best Original Score

  • The Shape of Water – Alexandre Desplat (c-1/16) — Likely —
  • Phantom Thread – Jonny Greenwood — Spoiler —
  • Dunkirk – Hans Zimmer — Spoiler —
  • Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri – Carter Burwell — Doubtful —
  • Star Wars: The Last Jedi – John Williams — Long Shot —

Best Editing

  • Dunkirk – Lee Smith (c-4/9) — Likely —
  • Baby Driver – Jonathan Amos, Paul Machliss — Spoiler —
  • The Shape of Water – Sidney Wolinsky — Spoiler —
  • Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri – Jon Gregory — Spoiler —
  • I, Tonya – Tatiana S. Riegel — Long Shot —

Best Cinematography

  • Blade Runner 2049 – Roger Deakins (c-9/7) — Toss Up —
  • Mudbound – Rachel Morrison — Toss Up —
  • The Shape of Water – Dan Laustsen — Toss Up —
  • Dunkirk – Hoyte Van Hoytema — Spoiler —
  • Darkest Hour – Bruno Delbonnel — Doubtful —

Best Production Design

  • The Shape of Water – Paul Denham Austerberry; Shane Vieau, Jeff Melvin (c-1/16) — Likely —
  • Blade Runner 2049 – Dennis Gassner, Alessandra Querzola — Spoiler —
  • Beauty and the Beast – Sarah Greenwood, Katie Spencer — Spoiler —
  • Darkest Hour – Sarah Greenwood, Katie Spencer — Spoiler —
  • Dunkirk – Nathan Crowley, Gary Fettis — Doubtful —

Best Costume Design

  • Beauty and the Beast – Jacqueline Durran (c-4/9) — Toss Up —
  • Phantom Thread – Mark Bridges — Toss Up —
  • The Shape of Water – Luis Sequeira — Toss Up —
  • Victoria & Abdul – Consolata Boyle — Doubtful —
  • Darkest Hour – Jacqueline Durran — Doubtful —

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

  • Darkest Hour (c-8/1) — Likely —
  • Wonder — Spoiler —
  • Victoria & Abdul — Spoiler —

Best Sound Mixing

  • Dunkirk (c-4/9) — Toss Up —
  • Blade Runner 2049 — Toss Up —
  • Baby Driver — Spoiler —
  • The Shape of Water — Toss Up —
  • Star Wars: The Last Jedi — Doubtful —

Best Sound Editing

  • Dunkirk (c-4/9) — Toss Up —
  • Blade Runner 2049 — Toss Up —
  • Baby Driver — Spoiler —
  • The Shape of Water — Toss Up —
  • Star Wars: The Last Jedi — Doubtful —

Best Visual Effects

  • Blade Runner 2049 (c-10/2) — Likely —
  • War for the Planet of the Apes — Spoiler —
  • Star Wars: The Last Jedi — Doubtful —
  • Kong: Skull Island — Doubtful —
  • Guardians of the Galaxy, Vol. 2 — Doubtful —

Best Foreign Language Film

  • A Fantastic Woman – Chile, directed by: Sebastián Lelio (c-12/15) — Toss Up —
  • On Body and Soul – Hungary, directed by: Ildikó Enyedi — Toss Up —
  • Loveless – Russia, directed by: Andrey Zvyagintsev — Toss Up —
  • The Square – Sweden, directed by: Ruben Östlund — Toss Up —
  • The Insult – Lebanon, directed by: Ziad Doueiri — Spoiler —

Best Documentary Feature

  • Faces Places (c-12/4) — Toss Up —
  • Strong Island — Toss Up —
  • Last Men in Aleppo — Toss Up —
  • Abacus: Small Enough to Jail — Toss Up —
  • Icarus — Toss Up —

Best Documentary Short Subject

  • Heroin(e) (c-1/23) — Toss Up —
  • Traffic Stop — Toss Up —
  • Edith+Eddie — Toss Up —
  • Heaven Is a Traffic Jam on the 405 — Toss Up —
  • Knife Skills — Toss Up —

Best Animated Short Film

  • Garden Party (c-2/25) — Toss Up —
  • Lou — Toss Up —
  • Dear Basketball — Toss Up —
  • Revolting Rhymes — Toss Up —
  • Negative Space — Toss Up —

Best Live Action Short Film

  • DeKalb Elementary (c-12/24) — Toss Up —
  • The Silent Child — Toss Up —
  • Watu Wote / All of Us — Toss Up —
  • My Nephew Emmett — Toss Up —
  • The Eleven O’Clock — Toss Up —

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