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This Day in Oscar History: January 28 (2015)

Here's what happened today in Oscar History.

Born


Died


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Oscar Preview: Precursor Winners & Losers, Week 9

As the precursor awards continue unabated until Oscar night, I'm going to be providing a weekly update highlighting the films that have won and lost momentum through the precursor awards (and in some cases other outside influences).

Apologies first to failing to get this posted yesterday when I had intended. However, today is just as good as any considering there isn't anything else on deck until the weekend. This coming weekend, we have a smattering of guild and other awards, but it's the two guilds we saw this past week that have the most influence on the future potential Oscar winner. Yet, with so few precursors in release, we're fairly limited on what are big winners and losers this week.

But, before we get into this week's winners and losers, let's take a look at what's coming up this week:

Week 10

Friday, Jan. 30 - Cinema Editors Awards (Official)
Saturday, Jan. 31 - Annie Awards Awards (Official)
Saturday, Jan. 31 - Art Directors Awards (Official)
Saturday, Jan. 31 - USC Scripter Awards (Official)

Big Winners

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This Day in Oscar History: January 27 (2015)

Here's what happened today in Oscar History.

Born


Died

Released

Ceremonies


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This Day in Oscar History: January 26 (2015)

Here's what happened today in Oscar History.

Born


Died


Released


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Precursor: 21st Screen Actors Guild Awards (2014)

The winners have been announced and for the second time this weekend, Birdman wins a a victory over Oscar frontrunner Boyhood in a not-unexpected win, but certainly a disappointing one for the cast of The Grand Budapest Hotel. Noteworthy here is that in the guild's 21-year history, this marks only the sixth time that no film has won more than one award. The last time it happened was 2008. Before that, it happened in 2005, 2003, 1996 and 1994 (noteworthy that except for 1994 when there wasn't a cast award, 50% of those victories didn't see the cast award carry over to Best Picture). Historically, the SAG Cast winner is the weakest of the Best Picture predictors with only 9 of its winners taking the Oscar.

That doesn't benefit Birdman much except in the fact that the surprise defeats of Saving Private Ryan in 1998 by Shakespeare in Love and Crash over Brokeback Mountain in 2005 were forecast first at SAG. Even the PGA went with the then-perceived frontrunners. Unfortunately, there's another precedent that needs to be referenced. Little Miss Sunshine won both SAG and PGA back in 2006, but eventually lost to The Departed thanks to Sunshine's loss at the DGA. So now, we wait for the directors to have their say. If they also go for Alejandro Gonzalez Inaritu for Best Director, another Oscar precedent may end up with a blemish.

Award Tallies

(1) Birdman, Boyhood, Still Alice, The Theory of Everything, Unbroken, Whiplash

The Awards

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Precursor: 19th Online Film & TV Association Nominations (2014)

An interesting batch of nominees that sticks close to Oscars' nominations list, but strikes out in some unique and interesting directions. The biggest take away is that the OFTA does not appear to be enamored with The Theory of Everything, but definitely supports Nightcrawler, A Most Violent Year and Selma more so than does the Academy.

Nominations Tallies

(15) The Grand Budapest Hotel
(14) Birdman
(10) Boyhood, Nightcrawler
(8) Gone Girl
(7) Guardians of the Galaxy
(6) Into the Woods, The Imitation Game
(5) The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies, Interstellar, The Lego Movie, Selma
(4) Whiplash
(3) The Babadook, Big Hero 6, The Boxtrolls, Edge of Tomorrow, Foxcatcher, How to Train Your Dragon 2, A Most Violent Year, Mr. Turner, Snowpiercer, X-Men: Days of Future Past

The Nominations

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Precursor: 26th Producers Guild Awards (2014)

Of all the films that could have won this award, Birdman didn't even seem like a strong competitor. Boyhood would have been the juggernaut choice, The Grand Budapest Hotel would have been the slick choice. American Sniper would have been the boffo box office choice and The Imitation Game would have been the Weinstein choice. The PGA hasn't been wrong since 2006 when they went with little indie-that-could Little Miss Sunshine. In their 26-year history, they've been wrong a collective seven times. That's impressive for a precursor, so you can't entirely dismiss Birdman's selection. Yet, Birdman is missing the Best Editing nomination. For a film like Birdman, that might not hurt, but there are some predictive elements that haven't been wrong in more than three decades.

The other two winner are a bit more expected from this group, but neither can repeat at the Oscars since neither is nominated.

The Awards

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This Day in Oscar History: January 25 (2015)

Here's what happened today in Oscar History.

Born

Died

Released

Ceremonies


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This Day in Oscar History: January 24 (2015)

Here's what happened today in Oscar History.

Born

Died

Released


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Oscar in Box Office History (Week 4, 2015)

Every week, we'll take a look back 5, 10, 15, 20, 25 and 30 years into the box office past to explore how Oscar's nominees were doing at the box office that weekend historically. All data is taken from Box Office Mojo. The first section under each year is the positioning of all Oscar nominees during that weekend at the box office. The second section is an alphabetical list of those films and the categories in which they were nominated. And to start each week off, we'll be looking at the films releasing over the weekend that have the best chance of getting Oscar nominations and specifying the categories where we think they have the best chance at this stage of the game. Please let us know if you like our new feature or if you want to see more information and we'll see what we can do!

This Year: Potential Oscar Nominees Releasing This Weekend

None

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2014 Precursor Predictions: Producers & Screen Actors Guilds

This weekend, two of the biggest guild precursors bring us our last real chances at upset victories. Looking over our predictions, there seems to be a lot of variance in many places, suggesting that no one is precisely certain how these sometimes-persnickety groups will vote. We still try to take a stab at it.

The Producers Guild of America will kick things off Saturday evening at a private awards dinner. The Screen Actors Guild will finish out the weekend Sunday night with their televised event celebrating the best of film and television this year. For SAG, I'll be posting the winners live. For the PGA, I will be posting the winners Sunday morning as I won't have easy access to the internet Saturday evening (though, if I can get it posted sooner, I will).
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This Day in Oscar History: January 23 (2015)

Here's what happened today in Oscar History.

Born

Died

Ceremonies


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Oscar Profile #221 – Sorting Out the Nominees

Boyhood01This week I thought it would be nice to do something a little different in light of last week’s Oscar nominations.

The films with the most nominations among this year’s Best Picture nominees are Birdman and The Grand Budapest Hotel with nine each, followed by The Imitation Game with eight, American Sniper and Boyhood with six each, The Theory of Everything and Whiplash with five each and Selma with two.

While Birdman, The Grand Budapest Hotel and The Imitation Game have more nominations, some in technical categories it was not eligible for, critics’ favorite Boyhood would seem to be the one to beat.

The biggest surprise among the nominees is American Sniper which opened to respectful reviews as did two other major war movies, Unbroken and Fury, but none of these three films received anything anywhere near the rave reviews of Selma which received just one other nod.

Whiplash, though not really a surprise, is noteworthy as the only nominee appealing largely to a young audience, beating such hopefuls appealing to the same audience as Gone Girl, Nightcrawler and Snowpiercer.

Birdman, The Imitation Game and The Theory of Everything were all expected to be nominated. The Grand Budapest Hotel was considered a long shot because it opened last March to respectful reviews but no one at the time predicted it would be an Oscar front-runner.

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2014 Oscar Winner Predictions: Post-Nominations

While we're quite a bit delayed from when we had expected to have these posted, here are our first post-Oscar Nominations predictions. We give you a primary choice and a runner-up in each category. We did not share commentary this time as we'll get deeply into that with our annual Rundown series, which begins next week.

Looking at our predictions, it's surprising how easily we align on many categories, mostly in the above-the-line categories. Even below, we have several unanimous picks, but looking at our runners-up is where the true diversity lies.
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This Day in Oscar History: January 22 (2015)

Here's what happened today in Oscar History.

Born


Died

Ceremonies

Our Site Milestones

2010: The Oscar Guy Became Cinema Sight (5)

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