Category: 89th Oscars (2016)

2017 Oscar Nominations Predictions: First Predictions

As is our tradition, May begins our first predictive look at the year’s Oscar hopefuls. A lot of factors will play into how well our guesses hold up. Expect many of them to fall by the wayside as the year progresses and new contenders to rise into their places.

Our plan is to update our predictions monthly through November, adding one or two categories each month as we go along. We start things off with the absolute basics of categories: Best Picture, Best Director, and the four acting categories. Looking over our initial submissions, we have a lot of agreement and a lot of disagreement. One of the major contenders has already been seen and makes a strong showing on our list: Call Me By Your Name. It and Dunkirk in Best Picture are two of only five films that have the prediction of all four contributors. The others are Gary Oldman in Best Actor, Judi Dench in Best Actress, and Julianne Moore and Michelle Pfeiffer in Best Supporting Actress.

While having unanimous agreement is a rarity at this stage in the game, some factors arise that alter the landscape. In May of last year, we agreed on 13 different nominations. Among those, films like The Birth of a Nation, Billy Lynn’s Longhalftime Walk, Silence, Loving, and Sully all collapsed in terms of their potential nominations. Of those thirteen, only one, Ruth Negga, ended up making it all the way through the year. That doesn’t mean some of the other agreements that weren’t unanimous didn’t survive to the end, but it’s telling that some factors often impede our predictions. So, as always, take these with a grain of salt and expect it to change wildly over the next several months.

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Oscar Statistics: Precursor Statistics

Since my site began, I have tried to cover every precursor there is from the guilds to the critics. This hasn’t always been easy as new groups are founded all the time that I don’t hear about until years after they’ve started giving out awards.

Currently, there are a total of 54 groups within the U.S., two from the United Kingdom, and two from Canada that give out awards that in one way or another have an impact on the Oscars. London and BAFTA use similar release windows and Canada receives almost identical release patterns for U.S. Releases. That’s 58 groups that can impact the Oscars. This number continues to increase each year with the youngest group, the Atlanta Film Critics, starting out just this year. Back when I started my site, there were only 29 active groups, making today’s total exactly double what it was in 1996.

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Oscar Preview: Precursor Winners & Losers, FINAL

The precursors are over and the Oscars are finished. Here are the winners and losers of Oscar Season 2016.

Big Winners

Moonlight came into the season the most acclaimed drama in the race. This exceedingly small indie wasn’t your typical Oscar vehicle, but through perseverance, support from critics, and a wave of audience appreciation, the film not only won the two categories it was expected to win at the Oscar (Best Supporting Actor and Best Adapted Screenplay), it also managed to capture Best Picture in one of the biggest upsets in Oscar history. It received 218 awards through its precursor run, only seven shy of the tally La La Land had for the season.
Manchester by the Sea didn’t make quite the gains in Oscar season as Moonlight or La La Land, but its star, Casey Affleck, became the most honored actor in precursor history, taking home 35 different awards for Best Actor. The only trophy he didn’t win was at Screen Actors Guild and Denzel had never won, so he had to settle for also-ran status. The film surged at the end and claimed what was once thought an assured victory, Original Screenplay, and a capping win by Affleck in Best Actor.
Hacksaw Ridge was Mel Gibson’s attempt to recover from the stinging rebuke he received after several antisemitic and other remarks he has made over the year. Not only did his film secure six Oscar nominations, he picked up a Best Director nomination against all conventional wisdom. His film took home two Oscars and that makes his film a winner.
Viola Davis rolled through Oscar season like few supporting actresses have and did so to the total of 23 different awards. While there were accusations of category fraud in order to help secure her the win, the ultimate result was the same, an Oscar on the mantle after her third nomination and two previous close misses.
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89th Oscars: Reflections

Our contributors have watched the Oscars, looked at the winners, and have decided to share with you their thoughts of last night’s ceremony and results. It was a night of shocks, surprises, and glitches. Below are the thoughts of each of our contributors.

Wesley Lovell

It was the gaffe heard round the world. Only once before in Oscar history has a presenter accidentally read the wrong winner, but never in such a major and important category. Were the announced winner not the expected victor, everyone would have suspected something odd; however, La La Land was heavily expected to win and had even claimed six prizes throughout the evening. Yet, it wasn’t the winner. After the producers had already started delivering their speeches, the hubbub built and one of them announced that Moonlight, not La La Land, was the winner.

This snafu was a shock, but more shocking was the fact that a film about poor gay black men won the Oscar for Best Picture. While Midnight Cowboy had gay undertones and both Driving Miss Daisy and Crash each dealt with race relations at various points in our history, this is the first film that truly embodies each of those experiences in a straightforward and unguarded way. That’s certainly something. While I don’t know that Moonlight necessarily deserved this award, I am thoroughly ecstatic that it became the victor and thanks to this earth-shattering mistake on accounting firm Price Waterhouse Coopers’ part, more people will hopefully check out the film and perhaps learn a thing or two about it.
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89th Oscars: Best Picture

Fred Berger, Jordan Horowitz, Marc Platt

Presented by: Warren Beatty, Faye Dunaway

Standing Ovation: Yes

Correct Predictions: RU:Wesley / RU:Peter / RU:Tripp / RU:Thomas

89th Oscars: Best Actress

La La Land

Presented by: Leonardo DiCaprio

Standing Ovation: Yes

Correct Predictions: Wesley / Tripp / Thomas

Runner-Up Predictions: RU:Peter

89th Oscars: Best Actor

Manchester by the Sea

Presented by: Brie Larson

Standing Ovation: Yes

Correct Predictions: Wesley / Peter / Tripp

Runner-Up Predictions: RU:Thomas

89th Oscars: Best Director

La La Land

Presented by: Halle Berry

Standing Ovation: No

Correct Predictions: Wesley / Peter / Tripp / Thomas

89th Oscars: Best Adapted Screenplay

Barry Jenkins, Tarell Alvin McCraney

Presented by: Amy Adams

Standing Ovation: Yes

Correct Predictions: Wesley / Peter / Tripp / Thomas

89th Oscars: Best Original Screenplay

Kenneth Lonergan

Presented by: Ben Affleck, Matt Damon

Standing Ovation: No

Correct Predictions: Wesley / Peter / Tripp

Runner-Up Predictions: RU:Thomas

89th Oscars: In Memoriam

Arthur Hiller
Ken Adam
Tracy Scott
Bill Nunn
Alice Arlen
George Kennedy
Gene Wilder
Donald P Harris
Paul Sylbert
Michael Cimino
Andrzej Wajda
Patty Duke
Garry Marshall
Wilma Baker
Emmanuelle Riva
Janet Patterson
Anton Yelchin
Mary Tyler Moore
Prince
Kenny Baker
John Hurt
Jim Clark
Norma Moriceau
Fern Buchner
Kit West
Lupita Tovar
Manlio Rocchetti
Pat Conroy
Nancy Davis Reagan
Abbas Kiarostami
William Peter Blatty
Ken Howard
Tyrus Wong
Hector Babenco
Curtis Hanson
Marni Nixon
George “Ray” West
Raoul Coutard
Zsa Zsa Gabor
Antony Gibbs
Om Puri
Andrea Jaffe
Richard Portman
Debbie Reynolds
Carrie Fisher

89th Oscars: Best Original Song

Music by Justin Hurwitz; Lyric by Benj Pasek, Justin Paul

Presented by: Scarlett Johansson

Standing Ovation: No

Correct Predictions: Wesley / Peter / Tripp / Thomas

89th Oscars: Best Original Score

Justin Hurwitz

Presented by: Samuel L. Jackson

Standing Ovation: No

Correct Predictions: Wesley / Peter / Tripp / Thomas

89th Oscars: Best Cinematography

Linus Sandgren

Presented by: Javier Bardem, Meryl Streep

Standing Ovation: No

Correct Predictions: Wesley / Peter / Tripp / Thomas

89th Oscars: Best Live-Action Short Film

Kristof Deák, Anna Udvardy

Presented by: Salma Hayek, David Oyelowo

Standing Ovation: No

Runner-Up Predictions: RU:Tripp

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