Category: Precursors

Precursor: 70th Writers Guild Awards (2017)

There we have them. After a really quick announcement run, the two Oscar writing categories now have frontrunners, well at least one of them does. Adapted Screenplay at the Oscars is sure to follow suit, but the WGA choice for Original Screenplay will now face off against non-nominated Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri. The Oscar is very likely to go to director Martin McDonagh for being snubbed by the directors branch, but after the year it’s had, Get Out could very certainly still win.

The Awards

Best Original Screenplay

Get Out (Wesley, Thomas, RU:Peter, RU:Tripp)

Best Adapted Screenplay

Call Me by Your Name (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, Thomas)

Documentary Screenplay

Jane (Wesley, Peter, RU:Tripp, RU:Thomas)

Writers Guild of America Data

Year Founded: 1933
First Awards: 1948 (70)

Precursor: 31st USC Scripter Awards (2017)

One of the easiest calls so far this Oscar season was the expected victory of James Ivory for Call Me by Your Name.

The Awards

Best Adapted Screenplay

Call Me by Your Name (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, Thomas)

USC Scripter Data

Year Founded: 1988
First Awards: 1987 (31)

Oscar Preview: Precursor Winners & Losers, Week 11

As the precursor awards continue unabated until Oscar night, I’m going to be providing a weekly update highlighting the films that have won and lost momentum through the precursor awards (and in some cases other outside influences).

While the upcoming week is a bit busier than this past week, it’s still a small smattering of precursors. Last week saw two guilds, one of them, the Directors Guild of America (DGA) is the granddaddy of guilds, at least guilds that give awards, and they are one of the most accurate predictors. The Annie Awards, giving out by ASIFA Hollywood, are also a strong precursor, but they are relatively new at the game since the Animated Feature prize has only been given out at the Oscars since 2001.

But, before we get into this week’s winners and losers, let’s take a look at what’s coming up this week:

Week 12

Sat. 10 – Satellites (Awards) (Official)
Sat. 10 – Sci-Tech Awards (Oscars) (Official)
Sat. 10 – USC Scripter (Awards) (Official)
Sun. 11 – Writers Guild (Awards) (Official)

Big Winners

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Precursor: 70th Directors Guild Awards (2017)

With Guillermo del Toro’s The Shape of Water winning both the PGA and DGA awards, it goes into Oscar night as the odds-on favorite. Three Billboards and Get Out are still threats, but considering how long it’s been since a truly huge production took the top prize, this love letter to old Hollywood in general and creature features in specific, it’s a fairly heavy favorite at this point.

The Awards

Best Direction

Guillermo del Toro – The Shape of Water (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, Thomas)

Best First Feature

Jordan Peele – Get Out (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, Thomas)

Best Documentary Direction

Matthew Heineman – City of Ghosts (Peter, RU:Tripp)

Directors Guild of America Data

Year Founded: 1936
First Awards: 1948 (70)

Precursor: 45th Annie Awards (2017)

Destroying all competition, Coco won every single category in which it was nominated (though, it did lose two awards because it was competing against itself. However, it’s an impressive haul, especially with a lot of the fine work against it had been nominated in a few categories. This should prove a guarantee for the film to win the Oscar for Best Animated Feature.

Award Tallies

(10) Coco
(1) The Breadwinner, Dear Basketball, Revolting Rhymes, War for the Planet of the Apes

The Awards

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Oscar Preview: Precursor Winners & Losers, Week 10

As the precursor awards continue unabated until Oscar night, I’m going to be providing a weekly update highlighting the films that have won and lost momentum through the precursor awards (and in some cases other outside influences).

While there isn’t much going on this next week, last week was a pretty significant week. The Oscar nominations were announced. So, while I would like to talk about how Blade Runner 2049 picked up the Art Directors Guild award alongside The Shape of Water making them both frontrunners, or how the Cinema Editors threw Baby Driver under the bus and pretty much assured us that Dunkirk would win the Oscar, I’m going to focus on the nominations and who the big winners and losers were. I’ve added a section below to discuss the films that both won big and also lost big.

But, before we get into this week’s winners and losers, let’s take a look at what’s coming up this week:

Week 11

Sat. 03 – Annie Awards (Awards) (Official)
Sat. 03 – Directors Guild (Awards) (Official)
Mon. 05 – Nominees Lunch (Oscars) (Official)

Big Winners

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Precursor: 60th Grammy Awards (2017)

La La Land won two of the three categories in which it was nominated. The surprise was one of those wasn’t Best Song.

Award Tallies

(2) La La Land

The Awards

Best Music Film

The Defiant Ones

Best Compilation Soundtrack for Visual Media

La La Land

Best Score Soundtrack for Visual Media

La La Land

Best Song Written for Visual Media

“How Far I’ll Go” – Moana

Grammy Awards Data

Year Founded: 1957
First Awards: 1958 (60)

Precursor: 38th London Critics Awards (2017)

With a winner set that has a lot of random selections that haven’t been common all season, the London Critics Circle is the last critics group to announce, but also does so at a time when the focus on the guild awards is stronger. Also with their U.K.-based eligibility rules, they don’t compare easily or favorably with American awards therefore have a lesser impact, though the Three Billboards love is welcome to that team.

Award Tallies

(3) Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
(2) Paddington 2

The Awards

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Precursor: 22nd Art Directors Guild Awards (2017)

Proving that Downsizing has been roundly rejected, it lost the contemporary award to Logan. On the Fantasy side, Blade Runner 2049 pulls out the win in a move that could be a sign of an Oscar in its future. Period winner The Shape of Water puts itself into a two-way race for Best Production Design, though it could be a three-way race if Fantasy loser Beauty and the Beast comes on strong in the home stretch.

The Awards

Best Period Art Direction

The Shape of Water (Wesley, Thomas, RU:Peter, RU:Tripp)

Best Fantasy Art Direction

Blade Runner 2049 (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, Thomas)

Best Contemporary Art Direction

Logan (RU:Wesley, RU:Tripp, RU:Thomas)

Best Animation Art Direction

Coco (Wesley, Tripp, Thomas, RU:Peter)

Art Directors Guild Data

Year Founded: 1937
First Awards: 1996 (22)

Precursor: 57th American Cinema Editors Awards (2017)

In a surprising victory in Comedy/Musical, I, Tonya beat out several other candidates to win the prize putting itself into the runner-up position for the Oscars behind Dunkirk.

The Awards

Best Drama Editing

Dunkirk (Wesley, Tripp, Thomas)

Best Comedy/Musical Editing

I, Tonya

Best Animation Editing

Coco (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, Thomas)

Best Documentary Editing

Jane (Peter, RU:Wesley, RU:Tripp)

American Cinema Editors Data

Year Founded: October 26, 1950
First Awards: 1961 (57)

Precursor: 65th Sound Editors Guild Nominations (2017)

Announcing nominations in a number of categories, the guild that represents sound editors and which closely mirrors the Sound Editing award have given three nominations to each of four films, all of which should be considered heavy favorites for nominations. The two films that got two each could be thought as contenders, but the Sound Effects/Foley category is most likely to be the group from which the fifth nominee is pulled. My nominations reflect that already with the four cited, plus I’ve tossed in Star Wars: The Last Jedi, though War for the Planet of the Apes also has potential.

Award Tallies

(3) Baby Driver, Blade Runner 2049, Dunkirk, The Shape of Water
(2) Coco, War for the Planet of the Apes

The Awards

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Oscar Preview: Precursor Winners & Losers, Week 9

As the precursor awards continue unabated until Oscar night, I’m going to be providing a weekly update highlighting the films that have won and lost momentum through the precursor awards (and in some cases other outside influences).

The final week before the Oscar nominations and before we shift in earnest into the business of predicting the Oscars. Everything to now informs how we think the nominations will go. Hereafter, every new reveal will speak to what could possibly win, so here goes the last week of updates before the nominations.

But, before we get into this week’s winners and losers, let’s take a look at what’s coming up this week:

Week 10

Mon. 22 – Razzies (Nominations) (Official)
Mon. 22 – Sound Editors (Nominations) (Official)
Tue. 23 – Academy Awards (Oscars) (Official)
Fri. 26 – Cinema Editors (Awards) (Official)
Sat. 27 – Art Directors (Awards) (Official)
Sun. 28 – Grammy Awards (Awards) (Official)
Sun. 28 – London Critics (Awards) (Official)

Big Winners

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Precursor: 38th Golden Raspberry Nominations (2017)

These are copies directly from the Razzie press release, so the fudged title names are entirely their doing, though I get some mild humor from the “Dead Careers Tell No Tales” dig at Johnny Depp. Announced the day before the Oscar nominations, the Razzies have always gone for low-hanging fruit or popular actors doing bad work, but this year’s list seems genuinely interested in recognizing real detritus. Sure, there’s no The Greatest Showman, but that just doesn’t seem to be anything they are interested in lampooning. Only a couple of questionable entries on here, such as everything targeted at mother! and the Emma Watson citation, but for the most part the list isn’t too terrible.

Award Tallies

(9) Transformers: The Last Knight
(8) Fifty Shades Darker
(7) The Mummy
(4) Baywatch, The Emoji Movie
(3) Boo! 2: A Madea Halloween, mother!, Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales.

The Awards

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Precursor: 24th Screen Actors Guild Awards (2017)

The night went largely as predicted with a raft of individual actors who are likely going to ride this third telecast victory to Oscars this March. Three Billboards helps itself in the Oscar race for Best Picture, but losing PGA isn’t likely to help.

Award Tallies

(3) Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
(1) Darkest Hour, I, Tonya, Wonder Woman

The Awards

Best Cast

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Wesley, Peter, Thomas, RU:Tripp)

Best Actor

Gary Oldman – Darkest Hour (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, Thomas)

Best Actress

Frances McDormand – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, Thomas)

Best Supporting Actor

Sam Rockwell – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, Thomas)

Best Supporting Actress

Allison Janney – I, Tonya (Wesley, Tripp, RU:Peter, RU:Thomas)

Best Stunt Ensemble

Wonder Woman (Peter, RU:Wesley, RU:Tripp, RU:Thomas)

Screen Actors Guild Data

Year Founded: 1933
First Awards: 1994 (24)

Precursor: 22nd Online Film & Television Nominations (2017)

With a staggering 19 nominations, The Shape of Water topped the nomination count at the OFTA Film Awards. Call Me by Your Name also had an impressive showing. A lot of the names we’ve seen throughout the season here, though The Florida Project rebounded a little bit by picking up a Best Picture slot, while I, Tonya and The Disaster Artist each underperformed.

Nominations Tallies

(19) The Shape of Water
(13) Call Me by Your Name
(10) Dunkirk
(9) Blade Runner 2049, Get Out
(7) Lady Bird
(6) Coco, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
(5) Baby Driver, Beauty and the Beast, Mudbound, Star Wars: The Last Jedi
(4) The Big Sick, The Florida Project, Logan, The Post, Wonder Woman
(3) I, Tonya, The Lego Batman Movie, Phantom Thread

The Nominations

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