Category: Precursors

Precursor: 24th Cinema Audio Society Nominations (2016)

The Cinema Audio Society has selected its nominees for Best Sound Mixing in three categories, one for documentaries, one for animated films, and one for live-action films. That latter is the one that has the cross-over with the Oscars, so it’s the one we’re most interested in. The only major omission I see here is Arrival, which many thought might be a competitor. In its place are Doctor Strange, which makes sense, and Sully, which continues a streak of interest among the sound groups for Clint Eastwood’s film. It’s very possible this list will translate over to the Oscars, but I could see one of those two films dropped for Arrival.

The Nominations

Best Sound Mixing – Live Action

Doctor Strange
Hacksaw Ridge
La La Land
Rogue One
Sully

Best Sound Mixing – Animated

Finding Dory
Kubo and the Two Strings
Moana
The Secret Life of Pets
Zootopia

Best Sound Mixing – Documentary

13th
Eat That Question: Frank Zappa in His Own Words
Gleason
O.J.: Made in America
The Music of Strangers: Yo-Yo Ma and the Silk Road Ensemble

Cinema Audio Society Data

Year Founded: 1964
First Awards: 1993 (23)

Precursor: 58th British Academy Nominations (2016)

Topping this year’s British Academy of Film & Television Arts nominations, La La Land pulled in a solid eleven nominations. The big surprise is the 9 that Nocturnal Animals brought in without a Best Film citation. As always, there’s some heavy favoritism towards British productions, including I, Daniel Blake in Best Film. Here are some of the major omissions/inclusions.

With only five Best Film slot, it’s of course noteworthy when something misses, especially when it’s dropped in favor of a film that has no Oscar chance. Fences, Hell or High Water, Jackie, and Lion are all injured here. They nominated only four animated films, going only for major American studios. Tom Ford’s surprise inclusion in Best Director when his film wasn’t up for Best Film is a bit unusual. What’s more unusual is that with two solid black directors up for consideration, BAFTA chose all white guys. Barry Jenkins’ omission is the most shocking as he has been dominating precursors up to this point. They didn’t go for Mel Gibson or David Mackenzie or Denzel Washington either. Washington was an omission from Best Actor, making Viola Davis the only nominee for the entire film.

Jake Gyllenhaal, an American, is the one to get the biggest boost from his citation. Whether it will do any good with Academy voters remains to be seen, but he beat out Denzel for the slot, which says something. Emily Blunt shows up again, but it’s likely because she’s British and these are the BAFTA’s, but she beat out Isabelle Huppert for the slot, which might be bad omen for her. Supporting Actor isn’t surprising, nor is Supporting Actress, though I, Daniel Blake isn’t likely to pull the nomination along at the Oscars, but it doesn’t really help Octavia Spencer, Janelle Monae, Greta Gerwig, Lily Gladstone, or any one of a number of other actresses up for consideration.

There are a lot of other comments to be made, but this pretty much sums up the most notable.

Nominations Tallies

(11) La La Land
(9) Arrival, Nocturnal Animals
(6) Manchester by the Sea
(5) Hacksaw Ridge, Lion
(4) Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (5), Florence Foster Jenkins, I, Daniel Blake (5), Moonlight
(3) Doctor Strange, Hell or High Water, Jackie

The Nominations

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Oscar Preview: Precursor Winners & Losers, Week 7

As the precursor awards continue unabated until Oscar night, I’m going to be providing a weekly update highlighting the films that have won and lost momentum through the precursor awards (and in some cases other outside influences).

It’a big week in the precursors with several guilds announcing their nominations. While other groups announced last week, the one of supreme importance was the Golden Globes, which happened last night. As such, this week’s winners and losers are based on their performance at the Globes.

But, before we get into this week’s winners and losers, let’s take a look at what’s coming up this week:

Week 8

Tuesday, Jan. 10 – British Academy Nominations (Official)
Tuesday, Jan. 10 – Producers Guild Nominations (Official)
Tuesday, Jan. 10 – Cinematographers Nominations (Official)
Tuesday, Jan. 10 – Audio Society Nominations (Official)
Tuesday, Jan. 10 – Visual Effects Society Nominations (Official)
Tuesday, Jan. 10 – Make-Up Artists Guild Nominations (Official)
Tuesday, Jan. 10 – Toronto Critics – Canadian Film Awards (Official)
Wednesday, Jan. 11 – USC Scripter Nominations (Official)
Wednesday, Jan. 11 – Directors Guild – Documentary Nominations (Official)
Thursday, Jan. 12 – Costume Designers Nominations (Official)
Thursday, Jan. 12 – Directors Guild – Director & First Feature Nominations (Official)
Friday, Jan. 13 – Georgia Film Critics Association Awards (Official)

Big Winners

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Precursor: 74th Golden Globe Awards (2016)

A clean sweep greeted La La Land from the Golden Globe Awards, a staggering 7 awards for the evening. The biggest shock of the night came with Aaron Taylor-Johnson won Best Supporting Actor for Nocturnal Animals. Otherwise, the awards went largely as expect. Winning no other awards, Barry Jenkins’ drama Moonlight took the Globe for Best Drama Picture. That’s it for this year, folks. Enjoy the impending discussions.

For our predictors, Wesley came in first with 10 accurate with 2 runners-up; Thomas came in second with 9 correct and 3 runners-up; Third was Peter had 8 correct with 4 runners-up; Tripp had 6 correct with 3 runners-up;

Awards Tallies

(7) La La Land
(2) Elle
(1) Fences, Manchester by the Sea, Moonlight, Nocturnal Animals, Zootopia

The Awards

Best Picture, Drama

Moonlight (Wesley, RU:Peter, RU:Tripp, RU:Thomas)

Best Picture, Comedy/Musical

La La Land (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, Thomas)

Best Picture, Animated

Zootopia (Wesley, Thomas, RU:Peter, RU:Tripp)

Best Director

Damien Chazelle – La La Land (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, Thomas)

Best Actor, Drama

Casey Affleck – Manchester by the Sea (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, Thomas)

Best Actress, Drama

Isabelle Huppert – Elle (RU:Peter)

Best Actor, Comedy/Musical

Ryan Gosling – La La Land (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, Thomas)

Best Actress, Comedy/Musical

Emma Stone – La La Land (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, Thomas)

Best Supporting Actor

Aaron Taylor-Johnson – Nocturnal Animals

Best Supporting Actress

Viola Davis – Fences (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, Thomas)

Best Screenplay

La La Land (RU:Wesley, RU:Thomas)

Best Original Score

La La Land (Wesley, Peter, Thomas)

Best Song

City of Stars – La La Land (Wesley, Peter, Thomas)

Best Foreign Language Film

Elle – France (RU:Wesley, RU:Peter, RU:Tripp, RU:Thomas)

Golden Globe Data

Year Founded: 1943
First Awards: 1943 (74)

Precursor: 1st Seattle Critics Awards (2016)

In spite of being the nomination leader, La La Land went home empty-handed. Meanwhile, Moonlight made out like a bandit, scoring six awards including Bet Picture. As things go, there isn’t anything particular noteworthy about their selections.

Awards Tallies

(6) Moonlight
(3) Arrival
(2) Elle, The Handmaiden

The Awards

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Precursor: 51st National Society of Film Critics Awards (2016)

The last of the major critics groups to announce, the National Society of Film Critics, went down fairly expected routes with their selections. Note, I have put “X points” next to each. In years’ past, they have also released the points each victor and runner-up have received. I have not found this information so far. I’ll leave it like this until I get the information, if at all. (EDIT: Now with numbers)

Award Tallies

(4) Moonlight
(3) Machester by the Sea

The Awards

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Precursor: 21st Art Directors Guild Nominations (2016)

Here we have the nominees for the Art Directors Guild Awards. While several of the usual suspects are here, some noteworthy absences include period films Love & Friendship, Silence, Loving, and Rules Don’t Apply; fantasy films Alice Through the Looking Glass, The BFG, Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children, and A Monster Calls; and contemporary film Moonlight.

Five of the Academy’s nominees will likely come from this list, though Scorsese’s Silence probably wasn’t screened for them, so it might still be alive. You can drop most of the films from the contemporary lists, though both La La Land and, to a lesser extent Nocturnal Animals, could make a surprise Oscar play. From fantasy, drop all but Best Picture contender Arrival, and franchise mainstays Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them and Rogue One. From period, it’s safe to assume Cafe Society and Fences aren’t likely to be competitive.

This leaves roughly nine films that could take up five spots at the Oscars. Let’s see how the Costume Designers Guild goes next week before making too many pronouncements.

The Nominations

Best Period Art Direction

Cafe Society
Fences
Hacksaw Ridge
Hail, Caesar!
Hidden Figures
Jackie

Best Fantasy Art Direction

Arrival
Doctor Strange
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Passengers
Rogue One

Best Contemporary Art Direction

Hell or High Water
La La Land
Lion
Manchester by the Sea
Nocturnal Animals

Art Directors Guild Data

Year Founded: 1937
First Awards: 1996 (21)

Precursor: 11th Oklahoma Critics Awards (2016)

Taking only Best Picture and Best Director, La La Land came in third for most wins with Arrival and Manchester by the Sea securing more. Of these winners, they are following other precursors in all but one area: Best Actress where Amy Adams picks up only her second award so far this season. Of note is that Kubo and the Two Strings managed to make the top ten films of the year, but lost to non-top ten finisher Zootopia for Best Animated Feature. Strange decision that.

Award Tallies

(3) Arrival, Manchester by the Sea
(2) La La Land

The Awards

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Precursor: 5th North Carolina Critics Awards (2016)

La La Land claimed another award for Best Picture this season and picked up three other awards. The selections, in general, are following the current trends.

Awards Tallies

(4) La La Land
(2) Hell or High Water

The Awards

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Precursor: 69th Writers Guild Nominations (2016)

The Lobster in original and Lion and Elle in adapted. There were other disqualifications, but none of them are major Oscar contenders.

Another sticking point between the WGA and the Academy’s Writers Branch is that they disagree on how to interpret adapted versus original. Two major contenders forced to compete in the adapted category at the Oscars, but nominated for original here are Loving and Moonlight.

So, who was actually injured by this slate of nominations? In original, Jackie had the most difficult day, failing to ignite the way many thought it would. It benefits from the two original-to-adapted swaps, giving it and ineligible The Lobster the best chances of roaring back to life at the Oscars.

On the adapted side, Silence took the biggest hit. In spite of lighter competition, Scorsese’s film, which wasn’t screened for most of the guilds, just couldn’t muster interest from a group with so much else to consider. Love & Friendship and Hacksaw Ridge, both enjoying decent support in the precursors failed to secure nominations, as did Sully and A Monster Calls. You have to drop one of these from adapted because Moonlight is assured a nomination. Deadpool is an easy drop. Nocturnal Animals is also likely to move out, but not for Loving, but for Lion. The other three nominees on the list seem fairly certain.

The Nominations

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Oscar Preview: Precursor Winners & Losers, Week 6

As the precursor awards continue unabated until Oscar night, I’m going to be providing a weekly update highlighting the films that have won and lost momentum through the precursor awards (and in some cases other outside influences).

When I said yesterday that there weren’t any precursors in the prior week to merit an article, that was incorrect. There were three groups, North Carolina, Austin, and the Online critics groups. However, their nominations were commonplace and did not merit an entire article. What the article normally provides and that I should have gone ahead and done was present the precursors for the upcoming week. So, a day late and after the OFCS have announced their awards and the American Cinema Editors their nominations, here’s the upcoming schedule.

Week 7

Tue. 03 – Oklahoma Critics (Awards) (Unconfirmed)
Tue. 03 – Toronto Critics – Canadian Film (Awards) (Unconfirmed)
Tue. 03 – Online Critics (Awards) (Official)
Tue. 03 – Cinema Editors (Nominations) (Official)
Wed. 04 – Writers Guild (Nominations) (Official)
Thu. 05 – Costume Designers (Nominations) (Unconfirmed)
Thu. 05 – Art Directors (Nominations) (Official)
Thu. 05 – Academy Awards Voting Begins (Oscars) (Official)
Fri. 06 – British Academy (Nominations) (Unconfirmed)
Mon. 09 – Georgia Film Critics Association (Nominations) (Official)

Precursor: 56th American Cinema Editors Nominations (2016)

Of these eighteen nominees, five will likely be nominated by the Academy for Best Film Editing. There are some possible exclusions below that I’ll discuss in a minute, but for the most part, the Academy goes after what the ACE selects. This is also an indication of how strong certain films’ Oscar capabilities are. From my list of Oscar Hopefuls, the titles that do not appear on this list include: Silence, Fences, Jackie, Lion, Loving, Nocturnal Animals, and Sully. Missing this list hurts Silence and Jackie the most. Their Best Picture hopes hinge on down-ballot support and neither received it.

Before doing anything, scratch everything in the documentary and animated categories. Those aren’t going to carry over to Oscar nominations. Of the titles nominated here, but not in the hunt (at least in my opinion) are all in the comedy category, everything except La La Land, which is the only likely winner in that bunch. Hell or High Water is the only surprise among the drama nominees. The film now positions itself well for a Best Picture nomination.

The Nominations

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Precursor: 20th Online Critics Awards (2016)

Moonlight was the big winner with the Online Film Critics. Their selections follow the existing trends and do nothing to start new ones. Their early releases the last few years did more to position them as a trend-maker rather than a trend-follower. Now, they are back to being forgotten against the backdrop of the guild awards.

Awards Tallies

(4) Moonlight
(2) La La Land

The Awards

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Precursor: 12th Austin Critics Awards (2016)

As expected, Moonlight won the top prize from the Austin Film Critics, which gave out prizes to most of the season’s previous winners. Tower got some extra love, but since it was made in Austin, that seems like an expected outcome.

Awards Tallies

(4) Moonlight
(3) Tower
(2) La La Land

The Awards

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Precursor: 5th North Carolina Critics Nominations (2016)

A four-way tie for most nominations marks the North Carolina Film Critics slate for 2016. Most of the selections have been referenced by other groups previously, so there isn’t much that’s newsworthy in this grouping.

Nominations Tallies

(6) Hell or High Water, La La Land, Manchester by the Sea, Moonlight
(4) Arrival, The Handmaiden
(3) 20th Century Women

The Nominations

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