Category: Predictions

2018 Precursor Predictions: Cinema Audio Society

A solid predictor of the Sound Mixing Oscar winner, their choice will definitely get a boost going into Oscar night.


Best Sound Mixing – Live Action

Black Panther (Peter)
Bohemian Rhapsody (Wesley, RU:Tripp, RU:Thomas)
First Man
A Quiet Place (Tripp, RU:Wesley, RU:Peter)
A Star Is Born (Thomas)

Wesley Lovell: If they want to predict the Oscars, they’ll probably go with Bohemain Rhapsody. If they want to recognize the best use of sound, A Quiet Place will earn the nod. Anything else could win, so I wouldn’t be entirely surprised.
Peter J. Patrick: It’s hard to say what they will deem the best since the nominees are all coming from different places, but the unique sounds of Black Panther and A Quiet Place were important to the success of their films and shouldn’t be discounted.
Tripp Burton: I imagine that sound people might go for A Quiet Place, where the sound design is so integral to the story, but with the way this season is going, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Bohemian Rhapsody win here.
Thomas LaTourette: One would think that one of the musical pics should win. A Star Is Born should win, but I would not be surprised if Bohemian Rhapsody does.


2018 Precursor Predictions: Make-Up Artists Guild

The Hollywood Make-Up and Hair-Stylists Guild is one of the newest groups handing out awards and they haven’t been able to generate any kind of pattern in terms of their predictability. Having five categories that could match might help a little.


Best Period and/or Character Make-up

Bohemian Rhapsody (RU:Wesley, RU:Tripp)
Mary Poppins Returns (RU:Peter)
Mary Queen of Scots (Peter, RU:Thomas)
Stan & Ollie
Vice (Wesley, Tripp, Thomas)

Wesley Lovell: This award is not typically granted to prosthetic makeup, which makes it a bit of a challenge to predict. Bohemian Rhapsody, not nominated at the Oscars and not nominated in their prosthetic category here would be a good bet for an upset, but if they go gaga for Oscar nominee Vice, they could give it a prize here. Of course, any of the others could win and I wouldn’t be at all surprised.
Peter J. Patrick: Both Marys had a lot of period character – one or the other should be rewarded.
Tripp Burton: Oscar frontrunner Vice should win a precursor here, unless the love of Bohemian Rhapsody is really strong.
Thomas LaTourette: Vice has the most striking make-up, so I think it should win here.


2018 Precursor Predictions: Motion Picture Sound Editors

The Motion Picture Sound Editors Golden Reel Awards have bountiful nominations and before the expansion to five nominees at the Oscars, weren’t particularly instructive. Now, they have a bit more influence and a bit more cross-over.


Best Sound Editing: Sound Effects and Foley in a Feature Film

Avengers: Infinity War
Black Panther
Deadpool 2
The Favourite
First Man (Peter, Thomas, RU:Wesley, RU:Tripp)
Mission: Impossible – Fallout
A Quiet Place (Wesley, Tripp, RU:Peter, RU:Thomas)
Ready Player One

Wesley Lovell: If there’s any group that’s going to truly appreciate what went into making A Quiet Place what it was, this is the group that will recognize it. Of course, the more traditional efforts in films like First Man, Avengers: Infinity War, and Black Panther could also triumph.
Peter J. Patrick: The effects in First Man and A Quiet Place are the most realistic of the bunch, if that counts for anything.
Tripp Burton: I have no idea, but A Quiet Place seems like the favorite for these awards.
Thomas LaTourette: First Man would win, though it has not done well in the precursors. A Quiet Place was astounding for the silence and noise, so it could sneak in.


2018 Precursor Predictions: Writers Guild of America

The Writers Guild of America, because of their notoriously stringent nominations guidelines (non-guild signatories are completely ineligible, so foreign films, animated films, and smaller independents tend to be out of their race). This has created some suspense going into Oscar night as some of the Oscar frontrunners (like The Favourite this year) weren’t eligible to be nominated here, which will give the winners a small boost, but won’t necessarily be instructive.


Best Original Screenplay

Eighth Grade
Green Book (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, RU:Thomas)
A Quiet Place (RU:Peter, RU:Tripp)
Vice (Thomas, RU:Wesley)

Wesley Lovell: With The Favourite out of the race, it’s anyone’s guess what will win. Vice is the more compelling script, A Quiet Place is the more original, and Green Book is the safest. Any one of them could win, but anyone other than Green Book winning would be a modest surprise.
Peter J. Patrick: Green Book has the snappy dialogue whereas A Quiet Place has practically none, but both screenplays convey what they have to.
Tripp Burton: Can A Quiet Place win another surprise award like at the SAGs? Or will Green Book win another award, post-controversy? Or will Alfonso Cuaron or Adam McKay, or even DGA surprise winner Bo Burnham win here? I wouldn’t be shocked to see any of them.
Thomas LaTourette: There may be enough of a backlash against Green Book for Vice to win.


The Rundown 2018: Directing

For our fifteenth Rundown article, the person most responsible for bringing all of the parts together. After the jump, you’ll find our winner and runner-up predictions for Best Directing as well as general commentary about the race. Next week, we’ll start off on Monday with a category that quite possibly is the first building block of feature filmmaking.

The Rundown 2018: Makeup & Hairstyling

For our fourteenth Rundown article, a category where putting on disguises is the name of the game. After the jump, you’ll find our winner and runner-up predictions for Best Makeup & Hairstyling as well as general commentary about the race. ///Next week, we’ll start off on Monday with a category Friday, we’ll cover the person responsible for bringing all of the parts of the film together in a cohesive vision: theirs.

The Rundown 2018: Animated Feature

For our thirteenth Rundown article, the best feature of the year that isn’t live-action. After the jump, you’ll find our winner and runner-up predictions for Best Animated Feature as well as general commentary about the race. Thursday, we’ll cover a category where making someone look like someone else is the key.

The Rundown 2018: Cinematography

For our twelfth Rundown article, we look at a category that people wrongly look at as the most visually stunning and should look at for its overall shot composition. After the jump, you’ll find our winner and runner-up predictions for Best Cinematography as well as general commentary about the race. ///Next week, we’ll start off on Monday with a category Wednesday, we’ll cover the best feature of the year that isn’t live-action.

The Rundown 2018: Actor

For our eleventh Rundown article, we look at the men who lead casts. After the jump, you’ll find our winner and runner-up predictions for Best Actor as well as general commentary about the race. Tuesday, we’ll cover a category that’s all about shot composition (though that’s not what people judge it based on).

2018 Precursor Predictions: British Academy

Although numerous nations have their own national awards, few of those organizations have as much overlap between them and the Academy of Motion Picture Arts & Sciences as the British Academy of Film & Television Arts. In the past, they gave out their prizes after the Oscars, but now they hand them out before and they can either indicate a change in course (such as when Tilda Swinton won the BAFTA award for Michael Clayton over critics frontrunner Amy Ryan (who coincidentally wasn’t nominated at BAFTA)) or they can stay it. We look to these awards to see if certain trends present themselves. For instance, Roma winning would be a boon for that film’s weak frontrunner status at the Oscars while wins by BlacKkKlansman, The Favourite, Green Book, or A Star Is Born could change the narrative dramatically.

2018 Precursor Predictions: American Society of Cinematographers

One of the best forecasters for the corresponding category at the Oscars, look for them to give a nudge to one of these contenders going into the Oscars.


Best Cinematography

Cold War (RU:Wesley, RU:Peter)
The Favourite (RU:Thomas)
First Man
Roma (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, Thomas)
A Star Is Born (RU:Tripp)

Wesley Lovell: Directors doing their own photography has been a no-no for cinematographers, but can they really deny this one the award? Probably not, though traditional cinematographers for Cold War or The Favourite could benefit from this group’s protectionism.
Peter J. Patrick: This should go to one of the two gorgeous black-and-white foreign language films, Roma or Cold War, but they could just as easily go for the all-American First Man or the English historical epic The Favourite. There is no safe bet here.
Tripp Burton: The ASC went out and nominated director-cinematographer Alfonso Cuaron, which they normally do not do, but will they also give him the award? He seems ahead, but if they want to turn more to one of their own, maybe A Star Is Born finally wins something?
Thomas LaTourette: I wonder if Roma will continue winning with the guild. It has done well winning by far the most precursor awards. I imagine that they will honor it as well, though perhaps the flashy work of The Favourite might sneak by for the win.

2018 Precursor Predictions: USC Scripter

They are one of the best predictors of the Oscars out there and what they pick could carry over to the Oscars. Look for their winner to possibly carry over to the Oscars, though BlacKkKlansman and A Star Is Born weren’t nominated here, so that might be the only fly in the ointment.


Best Adapted Screenplay

Black Panther
Can You Ever Forgive Me? (Thomas, RU:Wesley, RU:Peter, RU:Tripp)
The Death of Stalin
If Beale Street Could Talk (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, RU:Thomas)
Leave No Trace

Wesley Lovell: This group honors both the screenwriter and the original author, which likely gives If Beale Street Could Talk the advantage. Although the novel author, James Baldwin, died over thirty years ago, he is the most notable author on this list and Barry Jenkins should easily claim the prize. The only real competition here is co-Oscar nominee Can You Ever Forgive Me? based on the memoir of the same name by the subject of the film, Lee Israel. Israel died more recently than Baldwin, but her literary forgery is a compelling subject. Nicole Holofcener and Jeff Whitty could win for their screenplay, but I think Jenkins and Baldwin have the advantage.
Peter J. Patrick: I see the adaptation of James Baldwin’s If Beale Street Could Talk an easy winner here, with Can You Ever Forgive Me? the closest also-ran.
Tripp Burton: The literary pedigree of Beale Street seems a solid leader in this pack. The other four are running behind.
Thomas LaTourette: With some of the other Oscar nominees not listed here, it probably comes down to a race between If Beale Street Could Talk and Can You Ever Forgive Me? I was more entertained by the more personal Forgive, and will predict it to win here, even though I doubt it could prevail at the Oscars.

The Rundown 2018: Actress

For our tenth Rundown article, we look at the ladies who’ve taken the lead this year. After the jump, you’ll find our winner and runner-up predictions for Best Actress as well as general commentary about the race. Next week, we’ll start off on Monday with a category that pairs well with this one.

The Rundown 2018: Production Design

For our ninth Rundown article, we look at one of the two “Design” categories. After the jump, you’ll find our winner and runner-up predictions for Best Production Design as well as general commentary about the race. Friday, we’ll cover the female performances that lead the pack.

The Rundown 2018: Film Editing

For our eighth Rundown article, we’ll take a glimpse at the category where everything comes together in the end. After the jump, you’ll find our winner and runner-up predictions for Best Film Editing as well as general commentary about the race. Thursday, we’ll cover a category where the overall look of the film is decided.