Category: Predictions

2017 Oscar Nominations Predictions: October

As the year progresses, we continue to update our predictions. We began this adventure in May. Five months later, we are fast approaching the most hectic portion of the pre-Oscar season: the precursors. These won’t begin until the end of November, so we have some time still to look at what’s coming.

Venice, Telluride, and Toronto are now by the wayside. The New York Film Festival is around the corner, so too are the critics awards. A lot is still fluctuating right now and although we’ve started solidifying around certain competitors, we’re still guaging the temperature of myriad others. We’ve added Best Production Design and Best Costume Design to our predictions list this month and for the most part, we’ve agreed on several prospects. Next month, we’ll shake out Best Original Score and Best Makeup and then we’ll be into the home stretch as the shortlists start finalizing and we see what the lay of the land is. However, there are still some December offerings that might shake things up further, so stay tuned.


2017 Oscar Nominations Predictions: Post-Festival

The Festival Hat Trick (Telluride, Venice, and Toronto) is the official beginning of Oscar season. Although campaigning has already begun, the best lay of the landscape emerges after these festivals have premiered their works. A number of films were propelled forward this year while others seemed to fade. Please keep in mind that Toronto is still going on and there may be some surprises left, such as what film wins the Audience Award, one of the surest signs of an incoming Best Picture nomination there is these days. So, our predictions in October (which will include new predictions for Production Design and Costume Design) may have some new content to take into consideration. In November, we’ll be our closest yet to understanding the race (adding Original Score and Makeup to the list). Once we hit December, all bets will be off with a full slate of category predictions that will take shape even more as the precursor awards are announced.

Here is our current post-festival look at the Oscar nominating contest. Things are still in flux, as can be seen in places like Best Supporting Actor and Best Picture, but other races seem closer to being set such as in one of this month’s new categories: Cinematography. There, a total of six films are being discussed as nominees by our contributors with four films in full agreement and two evenly split. The Shape of Water emerged from the depths of the festival circuit to land on our lists in a big way. It went from no citations on our August list to nine this time out. Of course, two of those came in categories we introduced for the first time this month: Film Editing and Cinematography.

After the break, take a look at our introductions as well as our list of predictions in twelve of Oscar’s eventual 24 categories.


2017 Oscar Nominations Predictions: August

As is our tradition, May begins our first predictive look at the year’s Oscar hopefuls. A lot of factors will play into how well our guesses hold up. Expect many of them to fall by the wayside as the year progresses and new contenders to rise into their places.

Oscar season ramps up at the end of this month and the beginning of September with the triple threat of Venice, Telluride, and Toronto film festivals. This will be our last update fully prior to these festivals. Venice (Aug. 30-Sep. 9) and Telluride (Sep. 1-4) will have opened and Toronto (Sep. 7-17) will follow our next update. As such, we’re going to push our September update to the second Wednesday of the month rather than the first.

Looking over our new predictions, some previously unknown titles have emerged (such as Woody Allen’s Wonder Wheel) and others have finally opened (Dunkirk and Detroit). We are still a long way off, but some categories have begun to coalesce around certain titles. For this month’s update, we’ve added Animated Feature and Visual Effects categories.


2017 Oscar Nominations Predictions: July

As is our tradition, May begins our first predictive look at the year’s Oscar hopefuls. A lot of factors will play into how well our guesses hold up. Expect many of them to fall by the wayside as the year progresses and new contenders to rise into their places.

We move into the month of July and introduce our first new prediction categories: Best Original Screenplay and Best Adapted Screenplay. The changes this month are minimal for all of our contributors. We’ve lowered our estimations of some films and improved them on others. Without much change, it’s hard to say what new will crop up between now and Oscar time that could change our opinions.


2017 Oscar Nominations Predictions: June Update

As is our tradition, May begins our first predictive look at the year’s Oscar hopefuls. A lot of factors will play into how well our guesses hold up. Expect many of them to fall by the wayside as the year progresses and new contenders to rise into their places.

As we move into June, the Summer allows us to reflect on the large number of influential events that take place early in the year. As such, there are also fewer changes that we make. This far out, it’s almost impossible to know for certain what will and won’t be a success late in the year. That’s especially true with so few contenders having been released so far.

For our second predictions article, we decided to stick to the original six categories. There were few changes overall, though some felt the need to make major adjustment, while others made very few. Below are our predictions as of June. In July, we’ll expand this list to include the screenplay categories.


2017 Oscar Nominations Predictions: First Predictions

As is our tradition, May begins our first predictive look at the year’s Oscar hopefuls. A lot of factors will play into how well our guesses hold up. Expect many of them to fall by the wayside as the year progresses and new contenders to rise into their places.

Our plan is to update our predictions monthly through November, adding one or two categories each month as we go along. We start things off with the absolute basics of categories: Best Picture, Best Director, and the four acting categories. Looking over our initial submissions, we have a lot of agreement and a lot of disagreement. One of the major contenders has already been seen and makes a strong showing on our list: Call Me By Your Name. It and Dunkirk in Best Picture are two of only five films that have the prediction of all four contributors. The others are Gary Oldman in Best Actor, Judi Dench in Best Actress, and Julianne Moore and Michelle Pfeiffer in Best Supporting Actress.

While having unanimous agreement is a rarity at this stage in the game, some factors arise that alter the landscape. In May of last year, we agreed on 13 different nominations. Among those, films like The Birth of a Nation, Billy Lynn’s Longhalftime Walk, Silence, Loving, and Sully all collapsed in terms of their potential nominations. Of those thirteen, only one, Ruth Negga, ended up making it all the way through the year. That doesn’t mean some of the other agreements that weren’t unanimous didn’t survive to the end, but it’s telling that some factors often impede our predictions. So, as always, take these with a grain of salt and expect it to change wildly over the next several months.


2016 Oscar Winner Predictions: FINAL

And here we are at the end of the road. Oscar Season 2016 ends this weekend and we have our final predictions to present to you. Before we get into the meat of the predictions, here are some introductions written by our contributors. Tripp felt he had said everything he needed to during the Rundown series, so he chose not to provide additional commentary. After you finish reading our introductions, head into the predictions and see where we stand and how you compare.

Wesley Lovell: In what has to be one of the least suspenseful Oscar seasons in recent memory, the frontrunner has remained the frontrunner the entire season and few distractions or alterations have made it into the mix. There is still the potential for surprises as BAFTA proved, but how things play out depends on just how potent La La Land truly is. As I referenced in my article Can “La La Land” Tie or Break a Record?, I discussed at length how the Oscar season may play out for the year’s most nominated film. Take a look there to see my thoughts on its chances of tying or breaking a record. I’ve also spent a lot of time writing about these categories, so I’ll be brief in the comments below. If you want to read my thoughts in more deatil, take a look at my article Oscar Guy’s Final Thoughts to know more about what I see as this year’s best bets and runners-up.
Peter J. Patrick: Down to the wire, the big question seems to be how many Oscars La La Land will win. My guess is between 7 and 10, but not the 13 it could win.
Although any of the acting wins could conceivably be a surprise, the one that is generating the most talk is whether or not Denzel Washington can repeat his Screen Actors Guild win. I say “not.” Washington, one of the most awarded actors of our time, had never won a SAG award and was overdue. That’s not the case with Oscar, of which he already has two.
Tripp Burton: Commentary not provided.
Thomas La Tourrette: At this point I have seen all but one animated film, two foreign language films, two documentaries, and one film with a song nominee. I hope to see one of the foreign language films and one if not two documentaries before the awards, though the O.J. documentary is almost eight hours long, so that might not happen. This will definitely be the most movies I have seen before the Oscars. It has been a fun and time-consuming task preparing for this. I do not know how many I will get right, but it is a passion of mine to work on. I hope you enjoy reading it. This definitely will be the year of La La Land. It is a fun movie, if a bit of fluff. But I did enjoy the fact that the director was willing to do a lush, romantic, and original musical, something that rarely happens. The last original musical nominated for best picture was 1979’s All That Jazz. It definitely will be winning a number of awards, probably between 8 and 11. There will be lots of debate as to whether it deserves that many, but it will be fun to see how the awards fall. Some are set, as always, but some are definitely in flux. It definitely makes for a more interesting Oscars when we do not know who they will all go to. So mark your ballots and be prepared.


89th Oscars: Oscar Guy’s Final Thoughts

There’s not much time left. Sunday, we will find out just how much we did and did not know about this Oscar season. While I’ve contributed quick thoughts to our Rundown articles, I always like to do more with my final post of the year. This will include how I think the races will finish out, what has the best chances of surprising and what I overall felt about the nominees, non-nominees and other general thoughts. Please note that I have not made it through all of the Oscar nominees, so my thoughts will be based on what I have seen and what I see as problem nominees if that applies.

The categories below are sorted in order from least competitive to most competitive.

I will not be sharing my personal thoughts on the quality of the foreign language, documentary, or short film categories since I haven’t seen many of these and apart from Foreign Language Film and Documentary Feature, I don’t know that my guesses would have much impact. I have still written a little something on each and these are separated out at the end of this article.

The Rundown 2016: Picture

For our eighteenth and final Rundown article, it’s the final category. After the jump, you’ll find our winner and runner-up predictions for Best Pictureas well as general commentary about the race.

2016 Precursor Predictions: Spirit Awards

The final major precursor of 2017 will have zero impact on the Oscar winners as votes for the Oscars are already due. However, their selections have, in recent years, been far more in line with the Academy’s tastes than many other groups. They can be instructive at times, but also confusing. Here are our predictions for these awards. (EDIT: Somehow, I managed to miss the announcement of winners in three categories that we covered below. I have left the commentary and predictions, but noted who the winners were.)


Best Feature

American Honey
Manchester by the Sea (RU:Wesley, RU:Peter, RU:Tripp, RU:Thomas)
Moonlight (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, Thomas)

Wesley Lovell: The theme of my predictions with the Spirit Awards is: Oscar nominees become winners. While that can help in some categories, there are a few where two or more Oscar nominees appear. Those are the ones that require a bit of thought. That is with the exception of Best Picture. Moonlight is the most acclaimed film of the year in terms of critical consensus and when you have a film this independent and this well received, it’s an easy choice for the winner. Manchester by the Sea is also Oscar-nominated and is more traditional in terms of its indie cred, but it would be a shock if it won.
Peter J. Patrick: This one’s a toss-up between Moonlight and Manchester by the Sea. It’s a coin toss as to which one will prevail.
Tripp Burton: Only once in the past decade, and never since the expansion of Best Picture, has this award not gone to an Oscar Best Picture nominee. That leaves us with Moonlight and Manchester by the Sea, and my guess is Moonlight does very well here, partially in consolation for the Oscars the next night.
Thomas LaTourette: Without a corresponding nomination for best director, Manchester does not seem as likely to win here. I will predict Moonlight to win.


The Rundown 2016: Production Design / Costume Design

For our seventeenth Rundown article, the categories associated with dressing, sets and people. After the jump, you’ll find our winner and runner-up predictions for Best Production Design and Best Costume Design as well as general commentary about the race. Friday, we’ve reached the end of the line.

The Rundown 2016: Original Screenplay / Adapted Screenplay

For our sixteenth Rundown article, the categories that are required for any film. After the jump, you’ll find our winner and runner-up predictions for Best Adapted Screenplay and Best Original Screenplay as well as general commentary about the race. Thursday, we have our penultimate article with the categories related to dressing.

89th Oscars: Can “La La Land” Tie or Break a Record?

When La La Land pulled off a surprising record-tying 14-nomination haul at the Oscars (it ties with All About Eve and Titanic for most nominations ever), the next question that popped up was whether it could possibly top or tie the current crown holders for most wins: Ben-Hur, Titanic, and The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King, which each have 11 awards (Return of the King is the only one of these films to sweep all of its categories).

For it to pull off that feat, it has to perform incredibly well in at least 11 of its 13 categories (it cannot win 14 as it has two tracks nominated for Best Original Song). To that end, here is the category breakdown as I currently see it.

Safe Bet (6):
Picture, Director, Original Score, Original Song, Film Editing, Sound Mixing

Likely (3):
Actress, Cinematography, Production Design

Potential (1):
Original Screenplay

Tipping Point (3):
Actor, Costume Design, Sound Editing


The Rundown 2016: Sound Mixing / Sound Editing / Makeup

For our fifteenth Rundown article, two aural categories and a category with a new face every year. After the jump, you’ll find our winner and runner-up predictions for Best Sound Mixing, Sound Editing, and Best Makeup & Hairstyling as well as general commentary about the race. Wednesday, we approach the end with two categories that create the perfect endings.

2016 Precursor Predictions: Costume Designers Guild

Tuesday night, the final guild precursor announces with the Costume Designers Guild recognizing the best in three categories. (NOTE: Updated 8:05pm to add Tripp’s predictions and commentary)


Best Period Costume Design

The Dressmaker (Peter)
Florence Foster Jenkins (Wesley, Thomas, RU:Peter, RU:Tripp)
Hail, Caesar!
Hidden Figures
Jackie (Tripp, RU:Wesley, RU:Thomas)

Wesley Lovell: Period styles and lots of them. That’s what costume designers love. The fact that their is a separate period design category should attest to that. However, that doesn’t mean that all periods are equal. The periods with the most flourish do well. That’s why I give the lead to Florence Foster Jenkins, a film filled to the brim with bold and vivid costumes, which is more than the rest of these nominees have. The only thing that could stop them is the iconic outfits recreated for Jackie.
Peter J. Patrick: I can’t see how costume designers could vote against one of their own, the title character of The Dressmaker, but either Florence Foster Jenkins or Jackie could just as easily prevail.
Tripp Burton: The presidential gowns of Jackie have done well in the precursors this year, but the more ornate Florence Foster Jenkins could get some votes too. Both are Oscar nominees and are the most likely winners here.
Thomas LaTourette: This will probably be a battle between the two Oscar nominees, Jackie and Florence Foster Jenkins. Jackie has a couple precursor wins which Florence does not, but I could imagine the wild outfits Florence wore onstage taking the award.


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