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Oscar Predictions: July 2010

Yes, we're only half way through the year, but we're always thinking ahead to the next year (even as we are looking at the current Oscar season), so today we're posting our second set of predictions for the 83rd Academy Awards.

Things will undoubtedly change between now and January 2011, but sometimes it's fun just to see how much will change in the interim. Even in October our glimpses of the race may seem certain, but then the Critics prizes and the guild awards throw our conventional wisdom aside for new ventures. Thus, it is even more interesting to see what we would expect now and what we'll expect then.

We'll only be covering the Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor, Best Actress, Best Supporting Actor, Best Supporting Actress, Best Original Screenplay and Best Adapted Screenplay races, but I will continue my annual Oscar Hopefuls page which has been posted. You can see it through the link near the bottom of the article. Below are all four contributors and their picks. Note that the ones that are common on multiple lists are highlighted in different colors.

NOTES: Tripp was not able to submit new predictions, so his remain unchanged. Wes Huizar, has once again gone above and beyond the request and provided his full list of updated predictions for all major categories. They are included below the standard section. Peter has put together some commentary regarding his predictions and this also is followed at the end of the article.

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2

Oscar Predictions: April 2010

Yes, we know the Oscars just broadcast a little over a month ago, but we're always thinking ahead to the next year, so today we're posting our first in a monthly series of predictions for the 83rd Academy Awards.

Things will undoubtedly change between now and January 2011, but sometimes it's fun just to see how much will change in the interim. Even in October our glimpses of the race may seem certain, but then the Critics prizes and the guild awards throw our conventional wisdom aside for new ventures. Thus, it is even more interesting to see what we would expect now and what we'll expect then.

We'll only be covering the Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor, Best Actress, Best Supporting Actor and Best Supporting Actress races, but I will continue my annual Oscar Hopefuls page which should post sometime this week or next once I've finalized my own predictions. Below are all four contributors and their picks. Note that the ones that are common on multiple lists are highlighted in different colors.

KEY:
Appears on Four Lists
Appears on Three Lists
Appears on Two Lists
Split Lead/Supporting Placement
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0

Cinema Sight’s Final Oscar Predictions

We've analyzed, we've perceived, we've guessed. Now, with the Academy Awards presenting live on ABC tomorrow (Sunday) night, we'll finally be put to the test. It also means, we've got one last chance to change our predictions. Below is a list of all of our predictions for this year's Academy Awards. Those which have changed have been so noted.

KEY: (Winner Prediction) (Alternate Winner)

Best Picture

  • Avatar (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, Wes)
  • The Hurt Locker (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, Wes)

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9

Best Picture

And so we've reached the end of our nearly month long examination of all categories for the 82nd Annual Academy Awards. This is, of course, the big one, so we've saved it until last. We hope you've enjoyed our coverage and want you to stick around through the coming months as we add new articles highlighting our lists of winners that should have been, nominees that should have been and other events to keep things hopping throughout the year. We'll still have all our regular articles, reviews and previews as well (previews will return at some point after Oscar season is complete). So, here are ten facts regarding Best Picture (with an expanded slate, I thought it appropriate to expand the trivia as well), our predictions for the winners and analysis to go along with it, and our favorite and least favorite Best Picture winners of all-time.
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Written by: Wesley Lovell - () | Filed under: Academy Awards, Academy Awards History, Predictions, Trivia and Games ( Continue reading )
3

Best Actress

(Updated: 3/5/10, 12:44p - Added Wes' info) It's become one of the most watched races of the year and could very easily go down to the wire. Below are our predictions for the Bullock/Streep face off, plus five facts and our favorites.

Trivia: Five Facts

  • The category was one of the first introduced in 1927/28.
  • Only two winners in this category did so for a performance in a foreign language film. Sophia Loren was the first in 1961 for Two Women. Marion Cotillard was the second in 2007 for La Vie en Rose.
  • 82 Oscars have gone out in this category.
  • Katharine Hepburn and Barbra Streisand share the distinction of being the only individuals to tie for a win in this category in Oscar history in 1968 for The Lion in Winter and Funny Girl respectively.
  • Meryl Streep, this year, surpassed Katharine Hepburn's 12 Lead Actress nomination with her 13th mention in the top category. Behind Hepburn in third place for most nominations is Bette Davis with 10 followed by Greer Garson with 7. And while many actresses have won this award twice, but only one actress has won more: Katharine Hepburn with 4.

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Written by: Wesley Lovell - () | Filed under: Academy Awards, Academy Awards History, Predictions, Trivia and Games ( Continue reading )
6

Best Cinematography

(Updated: 3/5/10, 12:46p - Added Wes' info) Our Post-ASC predictions are now ready to be revealed as we continue our look at the categories for the 82nd Annual Academy Awards. Here are five facts on the Cinematography award, our predictions and our favorites.

Trivia: Five Facts

  • Among the first categories ever created, Cinematography has been going strong for 81 years. The category was split between black-and-white and color work from 1939 through 1956 and again from 1958 to 1966.
  • Schindler's List was the first black-and-white film since the category dissolved in 1966 to win the Oscar, nearly 30 years later. Since 1993 when it won, no other film has managed the feat (only two films have been nominated since: The Man Who Wasn't There and Good Night, and Good Luck.)
  • Since its inception, 123 statuettes have been given for Cinematography.
  • Charles B. Lang Jr and Leon Shamroy are tied for the most nominations in Academy history with 18 each. Behind them is Robert L. Surtees with 16, Harry Stradling Sr with 14 and George Folsey with 13. The most wins is shared between Leon Shamroy and Joseph Ruttenberg with 4 each. Conrad L. Hall, Winton C. Hoch, Arthur Miller, Vittorio Storaro, Robert L. Surtees and Freddie Young are behind them with three each.
  • Geoffrey Unsworth and Conrad L. Hall are the only two cinematographers to win the award posthumously in 1980 for Tess and 2002 for Road to Perdition respectively. Allen M. Davey, Joseph August, William C. Mellor and Harry Stradling Sr. were the only previous posthumous nominees.

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4

Best Sound Mixing & Sound Editing

The sound awards are always one of the hardest to predict simply because it's hard to know what the Academy is hearing. They've gone for classic, quality sound mixes and they've gone for aural deluges with no coherence. We'll give you a few facts, share our predictions and our favorites and least favorites.

Trivia: Five Facts: Sound Mixing

  • The Sound Mixing award, originally called Sound Recording, was introduced at the 3rd Academy Awards.
  • For 39 years, the award for Sound Mixing went to the studio sound department instead of to the actual sound mixers. In addition to those 39 awards, 150 individual statuettes have been given out.
  • After the first 6 years of awards going to the individual sound mixers, every single award was given to four individuals. In 2000, the first three-man team won the award for Gladiator. Including that win and going forward, 7 of the 9 awards were given to three individuals. This year, however, it looks like we'll either have a four-person team winning or the first pair to win since 1974.
  • Kevin O'Connell is the most nominated individual in the history of the award with 20 nominations. Following him is Donald O. Mitchell with 14, Andy Nelson with 13, Les Fresholtz and Greg P. Russell with 12 each. The most honored sound mixers are tied with four awards each: Bob Beemer, Mark Berger, Scott Millan, Gary Rydstrom and Gary Summers.
  • Although he's the most nominated sound mixer in history, he's also never won. No other individual in Oscar history has been nominated more often and never received an Oscar.

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0

Best Costume Design

With the Costume Designers Guild having given out their prizes, it's now time for us to weigh in on the Costume Design award for the Oscars. In addition to our predictions, you'll find five facts and our favorite and least favorite wins.

Trivia: Five Facts

  • Introduced in 1948, the category started out with Black-and-White and Color categories through 1956 and again from 1959 to 1966.
  • Last year, the 101st statuette was given out in this category.
  • This is the only category outside of the acting prizes where a woman is the most nominated. Edith Head received 35 nominations in her career, more than double her nearest competitor Charles LeMaire with 16 nods. Irene Sharaff had 15 nominations, Jean Louis had 14 and Dorothy Jeakins with 12. Head is also the top winner with 8 awards. Irene Sharaff received 5, and the remaining top winners all received 3 Oscars: James Acheson, Milena Canonero, Dorothy Jeakins, Charles LeMaire, Orry-Kelly and Anthony Powell.
  • From the beginning of the Costume Design category, there's been a regular link between Art Direction and Costume Design. Between 1948 and 1967, while the categories were split into Black-and-White and Color, 15 races went to the same film (1952 was the only year where both sets or prizes went to the same film) out of 36 contests. Outside of those color/b&w splits, there have been 44 years of competition with 23 correlations.
  • This is a category where a single costume designer traditionally wins the award, however several design teams have won the award. 17 such wins have occurred (out of 78 contests) with two teams of three and one team of five.

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3

Best Actor

(Updated 3/5/10, 12:50p - Added Wes' info) As we get closer and closer to the Oscars, more of the top categories will be revealed. Here are some facts about the Best Actor category, along with our predictions and favorite and least favorite winners in the Best Actor category.

Trivia: Five Facts

  • The category was among the first ever given out with 82 statuettes being awarded.
  • Actors may receive no more than one nomination in the category each year. However, for 1929/30 (3rd Oscars), actors were allowed to be nominated for work on one or more films. Three actors that year did so: George Arliss in The Green Goddess and Disreali, Maurice Chevalier in The Big Pond and The Love Parade, and Ronald Colman in Bulldog Drummond and Condemned. Arliss won the award, but for reasons never fully explained he was awarded only for his work in Disraeli, not in both films.
  • There has only been one tie in the Best Actor category. It happened at the 5th Academy Awards for the 1931/32 awards year. Wallace Beery in The Champ tied with Fredric March for Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde. According to Academy rules at the time, although Beery had one less vote than March, since he was within three votes, they would share the award.
  • Two actors share the distinction of receiving the most nominations in the Lead Actor category: Spencer Tracy and Laurence Oliver. Behind them are Paul Newman, Jack Nicholson, and Peter O'Toole with 8 each (and O'Toole holding the record of all acting nominations with no wins). At 7 nominations each are Marlon Brando, Jack Lemmon and Dustin Hoffman. Rounding out the list of most nominated is Richard Burton with 6 (also failing to win a single award). No actor has won more than two awards for Best Actor. The list of twos are: Brando, Gary Cooper, Daniel Day-Lewis, Tom Hanks, Hoffman, Fredric March, Nicholson, Sean Penn and Spencer Tracy.
  • Only two actors won their awards in consecutive years: Spencer Tracy in 1936 & 1937 (for Captains Courageous and Boys Town respectively) and Tom Hanks in 1993 & 1994 (Philadelphia and Forrest Gump).

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0

Precursor Predictions: Visual Effects Society

Sunday, the very last of the guilds to announce will do so. The Visual Effects Society is probably the one group whose decision doesn't matter as the Oscar winner in this category has been virtually set in stone since before the nominations were even announced. Still, it's a fun group to watch the results on. So, here are our predictions:

Visual Effects Society

Visual Effects/Visual Effects-Driven Picture

2012
Avatar (Wesley, Peter, Tripp)
District 9
Star Trek
Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen
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Written by: Wesley Lovell - () | Filed under: Precursors, Predictions ( Continue reading )