Category: Looking at the Weekend

Looking at the Weekend: Oct. 20-22, 2017

A large slate of new releases will compete to be the number one film of the weekend, with the films most likely to have a chance being Geostorm, Boo 2, and Only the Brave. Snowman could surprise, but the negative reviews will depress turnout. I would normally give the edge to the disaster film, but Only the Brave is timely and will likely draw more of an audience from middle America than the other films.

Our Highest Rated Films: BPM (Beats Per Minute)
Our Best Awards Ratings: BPM (Beats Per Minute) (Oscars); Wonderstruck (Oscars)

OTHER LIMITED RELEASES

Aida’s Secrets
Dealt
Golmaal Again
Jane
Let Her Out
Never Here
The Paris Opera
The Strange Ones
Tragedy Girls
The Work

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Looking at the Weekend: Oct. 13-15, 2017

Before the solid, but unspectacular debut of Blade Runner 2049, I would have said all of this week’s films were likely second fiddles. Now, it’s possible that The Foreigner manages to supplant Blade Runner. It’s also possible that everything bombs or Blade Runner has a good hold-over, which would put the others below it.

Our Highest Rated Films: Professor Marston and the Wonder Women
Our Best Awards Ratings: Breathe (Oscars)

OTHER LIMITED RELEASES

78/52: Hitchcock’s Shower Scene
The Departure
Human Flow
The Lucky Man
Man from Earth: Holocene
Swing Away
WASTED! The Story of Food Waste

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Looking at the Weekend: Oct. 6-8, 2017

With a weak weekend last, there’s little question that Blade Runner 2049 will top the box office. The question is how big it will be. Topping $100 million doesn’t seem out of the question at this point, though the tough-selling sci-fi elements might hinder its approach to that number. That said, there’s no question it will be a big open that will likely keep it at the top for two weeks.

Our Highest Rated Films: Blade Runner 2049; The Florida Project
Our Best Awards Ratings: Blade Runner 2049 (Oscars); The Florida Project (Oscars)

OTHER LIMITED RELEASES

Victoria and Abdul (Expanding) (Read our previous Looking at the Weekend commentary here.)
Architects of Denial
Charged
Chavela
Dina
Daisy Winters
Earth: One Amazing Day
So B. It

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Looking at the Weekend: Sep. 29-Oct. 1, 2017

After the stellar debut of Kingsman: The Golden Circle, but the lackluster opening of The Lego Ninjago Movie, it’s hard to know which way the box office winds will blow. Tom Cruise is a consistant box office draw, even when his films aren’t great. Of course, American Made also has the advantage of tons of advertising. Flatliners, on the other hand, has had a decent, but unexceptional advertising campaign and being a remake of a popular 1990s could have some residual appreciation to prop up its claim to a solid debut. All things considered, though, I give the edge ot Cruise and company as Flatliners has no major box office draws at the top of the ticket.

Our Highest Rated Films: American Made
Our Best Awards Ratings: None

OTHER LIMITED RELEASES

A Question of Faith (Wide)
Chasing the Dragon (Limited)
Don’t Sleep (Limited)
Judwaa 2 (Limited)
Lucky (Limited)
Mark Felt: The Man Who Brought Down the White House (Limited)
Pearl Jam – Let’s Play Two (Limited)
Signature Movie (Limited)
Take Every Wave: The Life of Liard Hamilton (Limited)
Window Horses (Limited)
Youth (Limited)

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Looking at the Weekend: Sep. 22-24, 2017

While Kingsman: The Secret Service was a surprise hit, its opening weekend was roughly $20 million off the weekend opener of the previous Lego animation entry. The Lego Ninjago Movie isn’t likely to perform to The Lego Batman Movie‘s $53 million opening and Kingsman: The Golden Circle is sure to top its predecessor’s $36 million, but will that be enough to get Kingsman on top of Lego. With little family fare at the box office and Kingsman‘s R rating, I suspect that Lego will win the weekend, but not by a wide margin.

Our Highest Rated Films: Battle of the Sexes, Stronger
Our Best Awards Ratings: Battle of the Sexes (Oscars), Victoria and Abdul (Oscars), Stronger (Oscars), The Lego Ninjago Movie (Oscars)

OTHER LIMITED RELEASES

Brad’s Status (Expanding) (Read our previous Looking at the Weekend commentary here.)
Bobbi Jean
Ribbons
Unrest
Zoology

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Looking at the Weekend: Sep. 15-17, 2017

With the potency of It at the box office, a second weekend atop the charts would not be unexpected. There is another horror release that’s been heavily advertised that’s on the release schedule this week and with its competition, it would be a safe bet to put it at the top of the new releases. That said, topping the second weekend of It would be shocking. Even at a staggering 67% drop, It would take in $38 million and I think it would be a stretch to believe mother! will make that much. Noah was Darren Aronofsky’s best opening to date at $43 million, so it’s possible, though unlikely it will open that high. This week’s runner-up will be American Assassin, which doesn’t seem to have the kind of attention that makes for a blockbuster debut. All I See Is You also releases, but it hasn’t had any advertising done and I doubt it even opens near the top 10.

Our Highest Rated Films: mother!
Our Best Awards Ratings: mother! (Oscars)

OTHER LIMITED RELEASES

All I See Is You
Because of Gracia
Dayveon
Justice
May It Last: A Portrait of the Avett Brothers
Time to Die
Wetlands

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Looking at the Weekend: Sep. 8-10, 2017

After three weeks of dreadful box office, the cineplexes are about to get an influx of attendees thanks to two major new releases. The romantic comedy Home Again may struggle in spite of the heavy promotion the film is getting against the first major horror film to give audiences something to get excited about. The adaptation of Stephen King’s It, problematic as it seems on paper, has earned some strong early buzz, which should easily help it top the box office.

Our Highest Rated Films: The Unknown Girl; Home Again; Napping Princess
Our Best Awards Ratings: Napping Princess (Oscars)

OTHER LIMITED RELEASES

Memoir of a Murder
Paradise Club
School Life
Trophy
Twenty Two
Year by the Sea

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Looking at the Weekend: Sep. 1-3, 2017

There’s little competition over the Memorial Day weekend. There will probably be a three-peat for The Hitman’s Bodyguard on a dreary box office weekend. The lone new “wide” release is Tulip Fever, which is being dumped on Labor Day weekend where few films ever succeed.

Our Highest Rated Films: Viceroy’s House; The Teacher
Our Best Awards Ratings: Tulip Fever (Oscars); Viceroy’s House (Oscars)

OTHER LIMITED RELEASES

Dolores
Do It Like an Hombre
I Do…Until I Don’t
Jackals
Valley of Bones
The Vault

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Looking at the Weekend: Aug. 25-27, 2017

This the kind of weekend where nothing breaks out and everything bombs, leaving a surprise number one selection? Of the new releases, Leap! has the best chance at becoming a modest hit. Animation hasn’t had a lot of options lately, meaning families aren’t getting much entertainment. All Saints could tap into a religious-oriented demographic that hasn’t been seen a lot at the theater lately, or people could shockingly flock to the poorly advertised Birth of the Dragon. Ultimately, Leap! has the best opportunity for success, but number one may not be in the cards.

Our Highest Rated Films: Beach Rats
Our Best Awards Ratings: Leap! (Oscars)

OTHER LIMITED RELEASES

Carl Jackson’s The Jesus Freak
A Gentleman
Polina
Served Like a Girl
Good Time (Expanding) (Read our Looking at the Weekend commentary here.)

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Looking at the Weekend: Aug. 18-20, 2017

Two new movies will target the same audience demographic, namely those that enjoy action thrillers. While one is a heist film (Logan Lucky), the other is an action comedy (The Hitman’s Bodyguard). The latter has been heavily advertised in theaters and other venues. The former has not. On top of that, well known faces Ryan Reynolds and Samuel L. Jackson star in Hitman, which should give it plenty of attention going into the weekend for an easy first-place finish.

Our Highest Rated Films: Gook, Patti Cake$
Our Best Awards Ratings: None

OTHER LIMITED RELEASES

Lemon
Marjorie Prime
Sidemen: Long Road to Glory

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Looking at the Weekend: Aug. 11-13, 2017

The Conjuring made a lot of money at the box office in 2013 ($137 million). Its prequel, Annabelle, made less, but still impressive amounts of money ($84 million). The first film’s sequel, The Conjuring 2, was off the original, but higher than the prequel ($102 million). Now, we have the prequel to the prequel, Annabelle: Creation, coming out to the cineplex. Regardless of how each film performed, they all opened over $37 million, which will be more than enough to make it the number one film of the week. The Glass Castle isn’t the type of movie that opens strong, especially with mediocre reviews so far, and Nut Job 2 will be lucky to make as much as its predecessor did on opening weekend, $19 million. Even if it tops that by a bit, it won’t be able to topple Annabelle

Our Highest Rated Films: The Nile Hilton Incident, Ingrid Goes West, A Taxi Driver
Our Best Awards Ratings: The Glass Castle (Oscars)

OTHER LIMITED RELEASES

Bedeviled
Once Upon a Time
Paradise Club
Whose Streets?

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Looking at the Weekend: Aug. 4-6, 2017

The long anticipated adaptation of the popular Stephen King sci-fi western should open to strong numbers against the third weekend of Dunkirk and second of The Emoji Movie. It should easily top the week’s other new wide release Kidnap and will likely outperform the wide expansion of Detroit, though that competition might be more fierce.

Our Highest Rated Films: Detroit
Our Best Awards Ratings: Detroit (Oscars)

OTHER LIMITED RELEASES

The Ghoul
It’s Not Yet Dark
Jab Harry Met Sejal
Step

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Looking at the Weekend: Jul. 28-30, 2017

Animation vs. action at the box office with two movies attempt to dethrone Dunkirk, which is expected to have a solid hold-over. In The Emoji Movie‘s favor is that there hasn’t been an animation or children-targeted release in a month when Despicable Me 3 opened. There should be pent-up desire to see the film. However, early reviews have been non-existent because the studio is afraid of negative press and has refused to screen it for critics. Meanwhile, Atomic Blonde is riding a solid 81% Rotten Tomatoes rating (though, the 6.8 average rating isn’t spectacular), which suggests it could be a strong player for the weekend. Looking back at Charlize Theron’s action openings and they haven’t been spectacular when she’s been the main draw, but have been astronomical when paired with others. However, the stylish action film might be able to delve into the Baby Driver-type support and run away with the box office. I suspect Atomic Blonde will come in second because even crappy animation is box office ambrosia.

Our Highest Rated Films: Atomic Blonde, Menashe
Our Best Awards Ratings: The Emoji Movie (Oscars)

OTHER LIMITED RELEASES

30 Years of Garbage: The Garbage Pail Kids Story
I Dream In Another Language
An Inconvenient Sequel: Truth to Power

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Looking at the Weekend: Jul. 21-23, 2017

A week of competition awaits us. While the last several weeks have seen mostly one-man competitions, this promises to be a weekend where different reactions to the film release could result in different outcomes. Although the second weekend of War for the Planet of the Apes will be a decent one, the two films battling it out for the top spot are new releases. In terms of openings, outside of the Batman trilogy he directed, Christopher Nolan’s films have either opened soft (The Prestige, Insomnia) or solidly (Inception, Interstellar). This gives Dunkirk an opportunity to open between $40 million and $60 million. The best comparison I can think of to Dunkirk is Steven Spielberg’s Saving Private Ryan. That film opened to $30 million in 1998, which translates to about $57 million today. That seems like a good target for this film.

The other competitor is Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets from director Luc Besson. Besson hasn’t had a lot of box office luck. Only two of his films, adjusted for inflation, have topped $100 million at the overall box office. Only one of those (Lucy) had a major opening ($43 million). The Fifth Element wasn’t too far behind with an adjusted $32 million opening. Since this film feels more akin to Fifth Element than Lucy, a $30-$40 million opening seems solid. However, the film has been heavily advertised and looks gorgeous. Science fiction has done a bit better at the box office than it did when Fifth Element released in 1997, so it could add another $10 to $30 million to that total putting it on a collision course with Dunkirk. Who will win? We’ll find out in a week.

Our Highest Rated Films: Dunkirk
Our Best Awards Ratings: Dunkirk (Oscars); Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets (Oscars)

OTHER LIMITED RELEASES

Scales: Mermaids Are Real
The Midwife (Read our Looking at the Weekend commentary here.)

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Looking at the Weekend: July 14-16, 2017

With a strong opening weekend of $117 million, Spider-Man: Homecoming will be pushing hard to claim the top spot a second week in a row. If it drops 50% in its second weekend, that will be roughly $58.5 million. That would create just enough of a drop to allow War for the Planet of the Apes to crest in for a win. The first of the prequel films opened to $54.8 million, but it’s follow-up pulled in $72.6 million. If it further improves, Spidey won’t stand a chance, but if franchise fatigue has set in, it may fall into the middle range between those two points making for a tight race.

Our Highest Rated Films: War for the Planet of the Apes
Our Best Awards Ratings: War for the Planet of the Apes (Oscars)

OTHER LIMITED RELEASES

The Big Sick (Expanding) (Read our Looking at the Weekend commentary here.)
Almost Sunrise
Birthright: A War Story
The Possession of Janet Moses

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